Model Output Discussion

[Winter Monsoon]

Looking at the 06z there's snow potential for the southern part of the North West (manchester) area with Tuesday looking good.... ok im following the GFS PPN chart but its a start.

[MR EXTREMES]

still no change today i feel its still in nomans land nothing exciting perhapes some falls futher north south of the m4 maybe alittle futher south damp wet.

i still see nothing to get excited about 0z this morning ironic that last night ecm along with all the other models where messy,this is still the case this morning even the meto futher outlook shows the mess.

some areas are still favoured,

i really think downgrades are likely in the next few days.:lol:

[kold weather]

The only way it will downgrade is if the whole lot misses to the south, make no doubt if it stays on its current course, even if its not as extreme as the 06z, some areas will see several pretty decent falls of snow....

Sadly for our area (I'll be back in Chi on Sunday barring any major snow events in the London region) the set-up just doesn't faovur us because any LP that advances in will brinbg in southerlies which coming off the channel is always going to be a letdown...besides you did well in early Jan anyway!

To be fair the Midlands haven't had a huge amount of excitment this winter, so I suppose its good to see the snowfall balance itself out, esp as most other areas have had better falls then that region thus far...

[cooling climate]

I actually feel rather sorry for those in N England because IMO the track of these disturbances look to affect S England rather than N England. At the moment based on all the model output I would say the N limit is around Derbyshire, maybe just getting into S Yorks.

Back to the medium range and I fully agree with Nick S, Tamara. Just watch over the next few days how the models will back away from the mild SW,lys. More of the same for me i.e snow events for S England?Midlands/Wales and if anything the risk of it turning even colder than we have now.

I very much agree with yourself, Nick and Tamara with the idea of a more southerly

track rather than northeast into the block.

The 0z GFS operational was a lot more in line with what I would expect to see happen

next week with a very cold spell of weather still very much on the cards.

I would not be surprised if the low today took a slightly more southerly track than expected.

Plenty of interest to come for many areas with the models only semi- reliable out to t120-144

at best.

Edited February 18, 2010 by cooling climate

[Thundery wintry showers]

Pretty dull and murky in central and southern Britain for much of the time it has to be said, but at the same time, much brighter across Scotland- where sunshine amounts will really plummet and the murk will set in if the milder air comes up from the SW (which I think it will towards the end of Feb, but maybe just temporarily). For southern areas it would stay murky but become a lot milder.

The current setup would be really cold IMHO if it was December or January, the fact that the sun is a little stronger at this time of year makes the maxima higher. It's much like the setup we had around 20-25 December, a less cold version of December 1981.

But the breakdown is out at T+168 and isn't even certain to come off at all at this stage, and there will be marginal snow events over the Midlands before then, perhaps further south at times, while in the north, it should be mostly cold and bright with wintry showers.

[Cheese Rice]

I actually feel rather sorry for those in N England because IMO the track of these disturbances look to affect S England rather than N England. At the moment based on all the model output I would say the N limit is around Derbyshire, maybe just getting into S Yorks.

I was thinking that earlier how ironic it is that all the snow was touted for the North/Scotland and the main activity is further south. Looking at the GFS it shows the main risk for snow to be for Yorkshire/North Midlands, but this is going by the GFS I'm guessing the other models differ.

http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

Only problem for Midlands south is at times that precipitation could fall as rain as it could be too marginal.

Edited February 18, 2010 by 10123

[carnun]

Atlantic weather can produce similar murk - but yes I think there will be a breakdown early next week as the succession of Lows sees a pressure rise over Europe.

do you think it is a brief return to mild weather, or do you forsee it as just the start of a much milder period of weather?

[Iceberg]

Looking at the ensembles from GFS 06Z, there isn't much support for any major precip mon/tues in the midlands, most of the runs it the precip further south. Obviously more time will be needed to support this, but I wouldn't be getting the hopes up of those in the midlands to get more than a few cms at the moment Mon and Tuesday.

[stewfox]

still no change today i feel its still in nomans land nothing exciting perhapes some falls futher north south of the m4 maybe alittle futher south damp wet.

i still see nothing to get excited about 0z this morning ironic that last night ecm along with all the other models where messy,this is still the case this morning even the meto futher outlook shows the mess.

some areas are still favoured,

i really think downgrades are likely in the next few days.

Messy yes downgrades next few days dont see that, based on what ?

Next week still messy.

Up to T168 models show temps still below average but don't expect 12 inches of lying snow for a week.

Too much mixing and modification at present

Edited February 18, 2010 by stewfox

[Eugene]

its GOING to break down, and not before time either, and those of us who dont like this dreary, drab, cold weather will have to look to fi for a change. i dont call damp, dull, raw cold 'good weather', unless you are inside of course!

the 06z again promises milder weather into next week... yep some volotile weather looks set as the mild/cold battle commences. as for snow events.... i cant see it snowing here today dispite the tv's graphics telling me it WILL. its far too mild (as in well above freezing, not really mild though, relatively).

so what if it snows? its not going to settle and will rapidly melt ... in my book if it doesnt settle it may as well rain.

Atlantic weather can produce similar murk - but yes I think there will be a breakdown early next week as the succession of Lows sees a pressure rise over Europe .

LOL...what a cheerful pair you and ian make, GFS 06Z OP does not promise milder weather next week at all, more like another cold week, plenty of sunshine on offer this weekend so we will enjoy that while you look forward to overcast mild muck that is pushed back all the time, don't count on that breakdown just yet.

Edited February 18, 2010 by Eugene

[johnholmes]

I have been going on about this yes, due to a number of people suggesting that it would happen on the scale that it did a few months ago, there's no need for me to post evidence if you're the one who doesn't believe then perhaps you should go out there and try to disprove it.

Besides a little reading and some common sense doesn't go amiss.

Firstly I stated that low temperature of the order in terms of widespread and severity are unlikely, I think that's a fair point, I never said they wouldn't occur locally. The really low temperature back in December were underdone by the GFS. The point if anything is the 2m temperature predictions are usually wrong and useless on some occassions. It is best working out the temperature from the 850's to get a widespread common value (give or take extreme localised values in rural areas)

Second of all I put that on most occassions it was doing this, not all of the time.

you and I just have to disagree Stephen. Until you produce hard evidence, and over several weeks, to support your theory-it is just that-theory.

Evidence and I'll believe you then maybe we can look at what might be a way of applying corrections on NW in those particular circumstances. Until then St its just you posting oft with no proof.

and your comment to the other poster not believing you that he should go and prove his theory is simply not on-you are the one posting about inaccuracies so its up to you to prove your view not the other way round-as a scientist you should know that.

sorry if I sound harsh St but you really do have to prove your point-you MAY be right but you have to show proof over a period of time-PLEASE?

Edited February 18, 2010 by johnholmes

[MR EXTREMES]

Messy yes downgrades next few days dont see that, based on what ?

Next week still messy.

Up to T168 models show temps still below average but don't expect 12 inches of lying snow for a week.

Too much mixing and modification at present

yes mixing and modification being part of the resons behind my thinking.

after the weekend things slip into late winter default setup with colder air pushing futher and futher north and east we can see this clearly in the last few days models outputs.

the 18z lastnight got people excited and the 0z this morning aswell which turned out to be far different to the ecm last night,

the ukmo looks pretty good for holding the cold and milder mixing type of weather,

but this is only expected to last until early next week,but its clear to see that if your waiting for cooling climate colder air still i think you could be waiting sometime.

march and april in the last few years has been full of suprises with lying snow here on the southcoast although only lasting a few hours,

and this year is not much different to thease past years although cet has stayed below through the winter months.

so on to march into spring what will come is anyones guess,

but id be suprised if extreme cold happens,

but id be silly to say above average march due to the jet stream and low winter cet,

i do however think that milder air is not far away and is more likely than cc colder outbreak,

because once the cold gets pushed futher and futher away milder air can get in,

but im pretty sure it will be unsettled into march which i might add is normal for spring.

all models have there idears of pushing the cold away in one way or another with others putting up more of a fight its impossible for me to say 100% but im favouring the milder outlook beyond earlier next week give or take a couple of days.

id also like to say,

if in the next few days we see trends going towards a colder setup then im happy to except i was wrong.

Edited February 18, 2010 by badboy657

[EastLothianSnow]

Hi,

Having had a browse through the models there seems to be opportunities for Central, Southern England for snow on quite a few occassions over the coming days, although marginal of course for some area, particularly further south you go.

What i am struggling with, and i am no expert, is that the BBC and MetOffice both mention the possibility of 'longer spells of sleet and snow' for my location in South-East Scotland on Sunday/Monday yet i cant see on the models where this is going to come from.

I would usually take the 'symbol' 5 day outlook forecasts on these sites with a pinch of salt only the MetOffice update for the longer term forecast starts from the tuesday (next week) and also mentions longer outbreaks of sleet and snow in the more northern areas.

Can anyone shed any light on this for me?

Thanks,

[andymusic]

GFS 06z - well we've had a blizzard for the past four hours or so and 3 - 4 inches of snow - tomorrow night we got more snow coming and sunday early hours more snow again - that's according to the GFS - looks a very wintry picture

[thegreat316]

Looks like being a great week, weekend and even start of next week.

System after system from the south west pushing into the colder air. The midlands could really see alot of snow, Even London could see somthing special.

Depending on how far north the lows go the bottom 50 miles of the uk may just see rain/sleet, Could be snow at times.

As others say its nice to have really cold conditions, but its better to have heavy snowfalls, even if the later winter sun could melt it.

I remember before we had the easterly the Gfs kept on putting it back before it finally came in. Some were saying a few days back that the mild air will be in the southern half of Englad by monday. Cant stay cold forever so milder air will come in, but how it will take is up in the air.

Here are the GFS o6z for the last week showing what it forcasted for next monday the 18th feb

I think it makes for intresting veiwing in relation to the milder air coming in.

[cooling climate]

The GFS 12z takes the low on a more southerly track than what the runs before

it had. The snow risk should be slightly further south as well.

[Ben_Cambs]

The GFS 12z takes the low on a more southerly track than what the runs before

it had. The snow risk should be slightly further south as well.

Yes, certainly a new trend from GFS since the 12z yesterday, and the GFS still goes for a widespread snow event for Southern and some Central regions on Saturday, Wales would be hardest hit on this chart:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=48&mode=2

[MR EXTREMES]

the cold air in scandi trying to push sw on the gfs 54h.

might close to the east of the uk -12 850s but east ends up with -8 which is good its only one run from 1 model.

edit: 66h close but no cigar it slips south down towards germany and you see the milder air pushing in from the sw.

thats what i mean cooling climate its easy to jump to conclusion until you see the way its heading the area of margin now heads for northern england.

Edited February 18, 2010 by badboy657

[kold weather]

12z synoptically not massivly different BUT practical weather is VERY different by 72hrs and it gets rid of the snow chances everywhere south of the borders by Sunday!!

Gotta be a synoptic outlier...or a big change is occuring...one that is AWFUL for most bar Scotland but even that would be marignal!

[MR EXTREMES]

12z synoptically not massivly different BUT practical weather is VERY different by 72hrs and it gets rid of the snow chances everywhere south of the borders by Sunday!!

Gotta be a synoptic outlier...or a big change is occuring...one that is AWFUL for most bar Scotland but even that would be marignal!

from this run though it does show how close we had come it is only 1 model and 1run but all the others are seeing similar idears.

by 96hrs with have +4 uppers in the se but - 4 upper to the west with the 0 line and jet moving north.

edit: look at 106 hours though cold in scandi trying once again.

Edited February 18, 2010 by badboy657

[kold weather]

No they aren't at all Badboy, at leasyt this mornings runs weren't, this was in the synoptic minority and I bet still will be on the ensembles.

Its a very good run for Scotland this one, also for Ireland but everywhere else...its quite honestly terrible and very very wet after Saturday...

Considering what we could get...the 12z is bar none the *worst* case...

12z UKMO also agree with the 12z GFS, a Scotland threat only, in fact may be too marginal even up there away from high ground..what a *HUGE* dowgrade if that occurs.

132hrs GFS brings in a marginal snow event for the Midlands and areas north of M4...but its still a cack run.

Edited February 18, 2010 by kold weather

[MR EXTREMES]

No they aren't at all Badboy, at leasyt this mornings runs weren't, this was in the synoptic minority and I bet still will be on the ensembles.

Its a very good run for Scotland this one, also for Ireland but everywhere else...its quite honestly terrible and very very wet after Saturday...

Considering what we could get...the 12z is bar none the *worst* case...

yes i agree scotland certainly could have something very eventfull on and off and ni.

[Higher Ground]

No they aren't at all Badboy, at leasyt this mornings runs weren't, this was in the synoptic minority and I bet still will be on the ensembles.

Its a very good run for Scotland this one, also for Ireland but everywhere else...its quite honestly terrible and very very wet after Saturday...

Considering what we could get...the 12z is bar none the *worst* case...

12z UKMO also agree with the 12z GFS, a Scotland threat only, in fact may be too marginal even up there away from high ground..what a *HUGE* dowgrade if that occurs.

Just to clarify you're referring to the chances of a snow event on a particular day right? I got the impression you meant the whole extended forecast has shifted dramatically away from cold, but I'm glad I just looked at the GFS charts myself on Meteociel because e.g. at +132 it looks even slightly better, rather than worse for cold/snow, no?

[Iceberg]

blimey, what to make of the 12Z runs from METO and GFS, it's not a total disaster, but it certainly raises the stakes to either a washout or a whiteout and probably both.

Still likely to change, but models to some degree agree on a more pronounced warm sector, with GFS being more progressive (probably too progressive with Mondays low), then further zipping lows.

Flooding and blizzards seem likely in equal measure.

Edited February 18, 2010 by Iceberg

[Eugene]

lol today was going to be cack according to some posters on monday and outside the story is a winter wonderland.

Still plenty of snow potential in the charts for next week, people getting too hung up on specifics as usual and not looking at the overall potential.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png