Model Output Discussion

[mountain shadow]

GFS 12z summary..

Out to T+120 - Mainly cold and dry with the odd place seeing snow showers with the chance of heavy snow in a few favoured areas. Risk of rain rather than snow the further south you go.

T+120 - T+360 - Milder from the south west. Rain.

T+360 - Signs of cold blast again in FI.

In summary, unless you are lucky to get the snow it;s mainly zzzzzzzzzzzzz.

Edited February 17, 2010 by mountain shadow

[mountain shadow]

GFS 12z summary..

Out to T+120 - Mainly cold and dry with the odd place seeing snow showers with the chance of heavy snow in a few favoured areas. Risk of rain rather than snow the further south you go.

T+120 - T+360 - Milder from the south west. Rain.

T+360 - Signs of cold blast again in FI.

In summary, unless you are lucky to get the snow it;s mainly zzzzzzzzzzzzz.

UKMET keeps it cold/snowy/wet out to T+144.

However, with no way of transferring the heights over the pole and western greenland a breakdown from the south west would also seem likely.

[Geordiesnow]

Set ups like these i hate in all honesty as no one really have any idea where the PPN is actually going to be but these set ups can spring a few surprises however so Mountain Shadow's post of the outlook looking "zzzzzzzzz" is a bit OTT considering the outlook(and even the 12Z GFS) are quite interesting if frustrating.

As ever, watching the radar and forecasts will help. There is signs in the model output slightly further afield of low pressure coming in from the West bringing something a bit mildern but for the forseeable future, the outlook is a cold one for the majority.

[mushymanrob]

hmm.... signes in fi at long last that things might warm up. ok, its 1 run, but hopefully its a trend setter and by this time next week spring might be awakening!

im not holding my breath though.

[Cheese Rice]

hmm.... signes in fi at long last that things might warm up. ok, its 1 run, but hopefully its a trend setter and by this time next week spring might be awakening!

im not holding my breath though.

Gfs in FI shows a return to average to slightly above average temps which would be nice if there wasn't so much rain around, good job it is in FI.

Edited February 17, 2010 by 10123

[MR EXTREMES]

pretty similar setup to yesterday but gfs is trying to bring in a pretty powerfull alantic storm absolutely starting to think a new trend building for march,

i dont think march will be dry and warm and sunny either cool wet and windy alantic dominated snow threat on both ukmo and gfs declines in around 3 to 5 days futher north a little longer.

but no major cold event or snow events beyond the weekend over much of the uk.

Edited February 17, 2010 by badboy657

[johnholmes]

yes, one run only, but it does have a lot of rain in it, although it again, as it has several times in the past week, shows some 'yellow' on the 12z charts in FI. That said its also had several charts with a flowfrom an easterly point being brought in. At one time it was showing at T+384 then it brought it down to about T+240 I think on one run.

So model uncertainty as there almost always is in FI.

Mind you that occurs below T+36 at times looking at some outputs over the past 24 hours or so.

[Buzzit]

Hello All

Based off this GFS run it looks like Tuesday is the day we find out whether the SW's start to take a foothold in the South

[Cheese Rice]

pretty similar setup to yesterday but gfs is trying to bring in a pretty powerfull alantic storm absolutely starting to think a new trend building for march,

i dont think march will be dry and warm and sunny either cool wet and windy alantic dominated snow threat on both ukmo and gfs declines in around 3 to 5 days futher north a little longer.

but no major cold event or snow events beyond the weekend over much of the uk.

I really wouldn't count on it, the break down has yet to make it in the reliable time frame and on Monday the GFS was showing a breakdown at T160, and again the breakdown is been shown at T160 which shows the Atlantic isn't getting any nearer but been pushed further and further away with every run.

Edited February 17, 2010 by 10123

[MR EXTREMES]

nearly all models are in agreement with a push from the south west,

although the ukmo holds on with -6 to -7 uppers,

but running through all the models you see the push with 0 and + coming in but im still confident it wont be above still looking slightly below to average.

but rather more unsettled.:lol:

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Folks the thing is your all talking about will it wont it break down but , but before we even get to TUE we have a wk of -5 uppers under low pressure and increasingly cold toward the wkend so with so much interest in the short term im not even thinking about the breakdown cause when its mild all we do is moan in the winter about it been mild and looking out for trends towards colder weather .

Seems to me ppl are that obsessed in fi they are missing good winter weather out there window.

[MR EXTREMES]

I really wouldn't count on it, the break down has yet to make it in the reliable time frame and on Monday the GFS was showing a breakdown at T160 and again the breakdown is been shown at T160 which shows the Atlantic isn't get any nearer but been pushed further and further away with every run.

i notice the jet stream outlook looks likely to come back north although i agree with the jet its always a maybe.

im not disputing what your saying but looks like in the realiable its going to be low pressure dominated with snowfall at first in favoured locations and then snow risk slowly dying out.

looks like the next few days will be key on the rest of febuary i favour average but unsettled.

Folks the thing is your all talking about will it wont it break down but , but before we even get to TUE we have a wk of -5 uppers under low pressure and increasingly cold toward the wkend so with so much interest in the short term im not even thinking about the breakdown cause when its mild all we do is moan in the winter about it been mild and looking out for trends towards colder weather .

Seems to me ppl are that obsessed in fi they are missing good winter weather out there window.

lol well that depends on where your lacated if theres nothing exciting showing on the models for some peoples location then fi becomes second best lol.

[Wilks]

This time last week the models were showing us in a cold setup with snow around these parts overnight last night and today but it could not be any different to that today. Lovely spring like day, calm, no wind, sunny all day and been outside digging over the garden with the sun on my back. Perfect February weather and signs now coming on for more spring like conditions although looking rather wet and unsettled but no doubt that will change as we get nearer.

[Tom D]

This time last week the models were showing us in a cold setup with snow around these parts overnight last night and today but it could not be any different to that today. Lovely spring like day, calm, no wind, sunny all day and been outside digging over the garden with the sun on my back. Perfect February weather and signs now coming on for more spring like conditions although looking rather wet and unsettled but no doubt that will change as we get nearer.

That's a bit of an 'IMBY' summary. Here in Leicester we've had rain, sleet and snow today. Temperature around 2/3c and more snow possible tomorrow. It would be rather naive to say spring is forecast in the models, especially with the cold over in Scandinavia.

[Duane S.]

This NAE chart made my chuckle. It sums up the winter for me with regards snow, only its inverted! :wacko:

[The PIT]

Reliable time frame cold after that who knows??? The Atlantic will come back eventually and this must be the longest period of inactivity for a long time.

At least the GFS has the low moving in the right direction in the reliable time frame allowing colder air too move south.

[MR EXTREMES]

That's a bit of an 'IMBY' summary. Here in Leicester we've had rain, sleet and snow today. Temperature around 2/3c and more snow possible tomorrow. It would be rather naive to say spring is forecast in the models, especially with the cold over in Scandinavia.

i really dont think its naive to say best part of winter is nearly over although im expecting spring not to be to much above average still most models are pointing in the direction of something less wintry.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So some heavy snowfall for some tomorrow from South Wales Borders transferring to Midlands. It could be heavier than expected but probably not more widespread as I mentioned that snow for some, cold rain wintry mix for most. It'll be a miserable day in the south but Malvern looks good to me!!! Indeed Black Mountains, Herefordshire, Gloucestershire etc For me this winter yet again like last winter has been mainly about the southerly jetstream. This trend IMO isn't likely to reverse [apart from blips]. I don't think the Atlantic has been quiet but more that the track of the jetstream has kept the storms well to our south. We should see more direct hits as it gradually moves north for the Spring / summer...but not as far north as one would like.

BFTP

Edited February 17, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Cheese Rice]

This time last week the models were showing us in a cold setup with snow around these parts overnight last night and today but it could not be any different to that today. Lovely spring like day, calm, no wind, sunny all day and been outside digging over the garden with the sun on my back. Perfect February weather and signs now coming on for more spring like conditions although looking rather wet and unsettled but no doubt that will change as we get nearer.

Depends where you live, temps today under cloudy skies haven't risen above 0.c. , also just because its sunny doesn't make it spring like unless temps are in double figures, for much of the country it looks slightly below or below average for another week, after that who knows. Edited February 17, 2010 by 10123

[kent]

If you want to believe in the UKMO thats ok. The rest of the ensembles mainly are still trending to a milder conclusion. I believe the next ECM will cement the will it last wont it etc.

[Moisty]

I am new to model watching and bow to other peoples experience on here but I really hope that signs of milder weather follow through now, here its been mainly cold snowless and damp for a month and it's time for spring to show it's hand in the outlook.

Sorry this won't be in line with most people on here.

[swfc]

Depends where you live, temps today under cloudy skies haven't risen above 0.c. , also just because its sunny doesn't make it spring like unless temps are in double figures, for much of the country it looks slightly below or below average for another week, after that who knows.

Well at 144 hrs on ecm i think were gearing up for a blast from the south west.As you said in your post tho clear sunny skies dont equate to spring like weather.

[MR EXTREMES]

ecm upto 120 hr pushes depressions in from the southwest.

i think along with a few others i went against the cold outlook and have backed the right horse this time with unsettled average maybe slightly above later,

thats every model bringing in our weather from the southwest.:lol:

not many people posting tonight:whistling:

Edited February 17, 2010 by badboy657

[swfc]

I am new to model watching and bow to other peoples experience on here but I really hope that signs of milder weather follow through now, here its been mainly cold snowless and damp for a month and it's time for spring to show it's hand in the outlook.

Sorry this won't be in line with most people on here.

i agree,its been a long cold winter and i think a lot of folk could do with a warm up.Soon be november. :lol:

[MR EXTREMES]

i agree,its been a long cold winter and i think a lot of folk could do with a warm up.Soon be november.

could well be a chart next running mild air from around the azores.:lol: