Model Output Discussion

[Cloud 10]

gfs 12z>> ecm 12z>>

Lots of scatter early on in the ensembles this evening,which isn't suprising given the pattern we are in at the moment with changes in the short term giving many forecasters headache's i would think!

Very cold over parts of Scotland at the moment with temps of -10

[guitarnutter]

WIth charts like this: http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100218/12/42/prectypeuktopo.png showing up with 48 hours, im suprised how quiet this place is.

[in the vale]

Guitar - where did that chart come from? It doesn't look anything like the 12z GFS for sat 06 that I can see. I also note the 2006 copyright symbol on the chart?

[stewfox]

Snow areas at T48 got to be risky, locations may change

Moderate snow here at present

Whats interesting is the potential this mix bagged of synoptics gives us

The met issue a weather warning on BCC Oxford at 6pm tonight (was heavy rain then) which suggest model forcasting snow locations is perhaps even harder then usual

[Hammer]

Click forward a few frames and central southern England, possibly East Anglia all in the frame for possible snow Saturday. But it could all be rain.

Edited February 18, 2010 by grab my graupel
Stick to the models please

[DAVID SNOW]

Yep, looks good for snow chances according to the models away from the south,south east.

Good luck if you like snow

[damianslaw]

As others have stated given the current synoptics making predictions even 24 hours ahead is unwise, the volatile unstable airstream we are in is conducive to twists and turns in short timescales with trough features popping out of nowhere, guessing where the low pressure progged to move into the country later on Sunday will track at this stage is very unwise, I very much doubt its exact path will follows the course of what any of the models are showing at the moment.

However, unlike the current front and torugh features courtesy of the present low, this new low will be a different beast, larger in area with stronger winds attached and much heavier precipitation thanks to a milder source, places on the northern flank of where it tracks would receive some preety hefty falls I imagine. In the laws of fairness its about time Cumbria and SW Scotland got a pasting we have been in the wrong place time and time again lately for recieving any snow apart from the high ground.

[grab my graupel]

Folks, can we leave this 'North versus South bias' out of the model discussion please?

It's not very pleasant for the members, who visit this area hoping to see some sensible discussion, to read.

Thanks

Brian

[Frosty.]

Not much has changed since I last saw the models on tuesday, a cold outlook pretty much nailed for northern britain but milder air approaching the south at times but not making many inroads until beyond T+250 hours which gives the uk plenty of snow chances but these will mainly become confined to northern areas during next week.

[conor123]

Saturday's band of snow thats been shown pushing through the Midlands & Wales for many many runs has suddenly gone the way of the UKMO last minute and downgraded it for a few wintry showers in the channel.

Edit: Its there, just 18 hours later and further north slightly.

On the brink of the mother of all poundings of snow sunday night and a washout, dont want those low's ANY further north.

Edited February 18, 2010 by conor123

[Hammer]

12z so far looking pretty good for the more northern parts of England and Scotland.

Looking pretty wet Sunday onwards further south, where we may well be talking about the amount of rain having fallen.

Monday certainly looks very interesting for pretty much the whole country.

[Harsh Climate]

SNOWPOCALYPSE anyone??

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100218/18/93/ukprec.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100218/18/93/prectypeuktopo.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100218/18/93/uksnowdepth.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100218/18/93/h850t850eu.png

this would live in the memory for years to come

[cooling climate]

The difference between this run and the 12z is ridiculous and its only out to

T132. As I said earlier the models are all over the place and it will be down

nowcasting for the next couple of days.

[Cheese Rice]

What a waste this would be if it came of (as rain), if it was snow we wouldn't be talking feet not centimetres.

Then it turns to snow on the back edge, so it would be flooding then heavy snow. Too bad it wont come of.

Edited February 18, 2010 by 10123

[kev238]

Well if the GFS is to be believed next week will be a blinder for weather nuts- huge rainfall/ snowfall-- sharp divisions between the 2 and strong winds. I think the pattern will shift but not sure in which direction-- more runs needed. Should be an interesting week though with flooding likely to be a major factor in some areas!

I believe some areas will get a load of snow next week- no-one can accurately claim where at this stage- even Saturday/ Sunday are up in the air at the moment!

[Nick L]

Can't believe how quiet it is in here with the risk of potentially deep snow over the coming days on each GFS run. Could also be a worry of flooding as well as snow. But just for fun seeing as it is fairly quiet...

Edited February 18, 2010 by nick2702

[Harsh Climate]

Well if the GFS is to be believed next week will be a blinder for weather nuts- huge rainfall/ snowfall-- sharp divisions between the 2 and strong winds. I think the pattern will shift but not sure in which direction-- more runs needed. Should be an interesting week though with flooding likely to be a major factor in some areas!

I believe some areas will get a load of snow next week- no-one can accurately claim where at this stage- even Saturday/ Sunday are up in the air at the moment!

If I was a betting man Id put my money of north midlands/south yorkshire being the place to be next week... but early days, could be 100 miles further south or 300 miles further north, many more runs needed :lol:

[Liam J]

well the gfs 18z is making many peoples eyes pop out i would imagine with huge snowfall potential and if it was to come off memorable amounts of the white stuff (depending on where you are) midlands north the most at risk atm, but expect changes in the coming days.

sunday onwards looking the most interesting, with potentially disruptive snowfall/blizzards. whatever the outcome an interesting week coming up. when will winter 09/10 release its grip.

edit: truly ridiculous charts from the gfs tonight.... get to the shops and panic buying i think lol but in all seriuosness very dangerous a possibility next week.

Edited February 18, 2010 by james12

[Harsh Climate]

16 inches enough?? http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100218/18/171/uksnowdepth.png

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Goin by experience and the face that gfs over does the atlantic i would bet on the fronts northern point been the mids , not bias believe me im goin from yrs of model and weather watching

[Cheese Rice]

Oh dear, 40cm down to sea level anyone?

Run of the decade? This beats any beast from the east what is shown tonight!

[kold weather]

Well that is a more interesting run from the 12z, nothing marginal relaly for the Midlands once past Monday, indeed two events that even for the south would probably have fairly impressive backedge snow so thats a better run, still not as good as the eCM IMBY but for the country as a whole thats a very snowy run for the Mdlands northwards...and very very wet for the south indeed.

[snowhope]

I love the snow but what is shown on the GFS18z in pretty terrifying for a large part of England. What actually happens is another story but amazing patterns and synoptics this evening.

[johnwirral]

Looks great but can you trust the gfs....

[January Snowstorm]

I love the snow but what is shown on the GFS18z in pretty terrifying for a large part of England. What actually happens is another story but amazing patterns and synoptics this evening.

Yes the charts are screaming potential.

My favourite phrase is "it's likely to snow so it pbly wont"