3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 9

[Snow Obsession]

I can't believe I'm in Wales!! Missing all the potential action! Hope you all have fun if it happens!

[Jason T]

ALL we need now is SNOWMANS confirmation update from any further runs.

[John London]

definately snow here now settling in a dusting on cars

Yes it has been snowing here now for nearly two hours, but it's not really settling to any great degree. Temp is 2c and rising.

[mackerel sky]

Temperature and dewpoint now at 3/2C here now, so safe to say there won't be any further snow here this evening. Curious as to where the undercut comes from, because by Wednesday what is left of the colder air persisting over Norfolk, Suffolk, eastern Essex etc will have been mixed up with slightly warmer air from Northern France. My understanding was that by the time the chance of snow for 'West Anglia' and the East Midlands, it is from the undercut of cold air to the NW, and not the SE, hence why the GFS charts show it turning to snow on its NW edge rather than the SE edge. Obviously if it can take an attack on from both directions then not only would it be less marginal, but heavier. So I think the forecasts are correct - make the most of sleet and snow east of the A1 tonight, because tomorrow it will be grey damp and drizzle. The undercut comes from the north - will be very marginal indeed. I don't think dew points will be low enough anywhere to be honest... sleet/wet snow in heavier bursts maybe.

ALL we need now is SNOWMANS confirmation update from any further runs.

You can of course look at the runs yourself and make a judgement therein. I am not waiting on SNOWMANS confirmation, though his summaries are good.

Edited February 15, 2010 by mackerel sky

[Mrsf16]

Temperature and dewpoint now at 3/2C here now, so safe to say there won't be any further snow here this evening. Curious as to where the undercut comes from, because by Wednesday what is left of the colder air persisting over Norfolk, Suffolk, eastern Essex etc will have been mixed up with slightly warmer air from Northern France. My understanding was that by the time the chance of snow for 'West Anglia' and the East Midlands, it is from the undercut of cold air to the NW, and not the SE, hence why the GFS charts show it turning to snow on its NW edge rather than the SE edge. Obviously if it can take an attack on from both directions then not only would it be less marginal, but heavier. So I think the forecasts are correct - make the most of sleet and snow east of the A1 tonight, because tomorrow it will be grey damp and drizzle. The undercut comes from the north - will be very marginal indeed. I don't think dew points will be low enough anywhere to be honest... sleet/wet snow in heavier bursts maybe.

I live right next to the A1..... ehehehehh Im hoping marginal works in my favour!!!

Nothing here since this afternoon, the big band managed to skirt north of us!!! Im sure theres a law about that!!! Hoping the following bands deliver the goods, but temps and DPs not good here! About same as you Mack.

Edited February 15, 2010 by Mrsf16

[John London]

I'm very far from an expert on this weather stuff, but I have a feeling this week is going to be too mild for much snow in our area. Think I'll have to find another online hobby until next winter.

[SnowAngel]

Raining, forecast for tomorrow is rain and the advisorary for snow on Wednesday has been lifted...... :lol: :lol:

[Tim Bland]

Raining, forecast for tomorrow is rain and the advisorary for snow on Wednesday has been lifted...... :lol: :lol:

Warning is still there for most of the area! 18z is great with a snow risk nearly every day out to Sunday. I have seen falling snow nearly every day for a week already. No reason to be downbeat this winter has been amazing for cold lovers if you want it better than this year...Move to Norway!

[Snowangel-MK]

Warning is still there for most of the area! 18z is great with a snow risk nearly every day out to Sunday. I have seen falling snow nearly every day for a week already. No reason to be downbeat this winter has been amazing for cold lovers if you want it better than this year...Move to Norway!

Still there for MK & Bucks as far as I am aware

Even today we had some light grauple in the air this morning and sleet showers this afternoon, it has done something wintery nearly every day this week.

This reminds me of late winters and early springs when I was a child, it often snowed and didn't settle or if it did it thawed quickly. I can remember one year when I was very young waking up to heavy snow, the apple blossom was out on the trees and my Pa put his trousers on over his PJ's and went out with a stick to gently knock it off the branches, ah those were the days !

Night all, sleep tight and dream of upgrades

[SnowAngel]

Warning is still there for most of the area! 18z is great with a snow risk nearly every day out to Sunday. I have seen falling snow nearly every day for a week already. No reason to be downbeat this winter has been amazing for cold lovers if you want it better than this year...Move to Norway!

Hahaha....I have thought of it ! Or Canada

[Mrsf16]

Sunshine, blue skies and white cloud here this morning!! Makes a VERY welcome chnage from the constant grey cloud cover we've had recently!

[John London]

5c at 8am, think that says it all.

[Ben_Cambs]

Beast from the East deep in FI on GFS, its occured on the past 3 runs, maybe a trend developing

[John London]

Beast from the East deep in FI on GFS, its occured on the past 3 runs, maybe a trend developing

I was wondering how long it would be before the mythical "Beast From The East" would be back on the agenda.

[NorthantsSnow]

Snow potential exists in this region tonight into tomorrow but personally I'm still not convinced despite some model output. Just as the GFS weakens the feature more in line with the UKMO guidance, the NAE wants to make more of it, which is confusing matters somewhat. I think basically wherever the heaviest precip ends up, there is a greater risk of snow in those locations. If it's just light stuff then forget it on low ground.

On the positive side going by the NAE I do look to be in a prime location for any snowfall if it does occur and the front aligns itself in that way. Lincs as always looks a good bet too, away from the coast, but the NMM is far less optimistic with the front mostly dying out when it reaches Cambridgeshire and not really extending much further north and west.

The NMM solution also sees temps rising sharply to 7C through the day whilst the GFS/UKMO are going for highs around 2-4C!

In Eastern Scotland of course the situation is a lot more straightforward. It will snow there. It's just a question of how much.

The latest video forecast from Look East's Jim Bacon:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediaselector/check/england/realmedia/lookeast/norwich/weather?size=16x9&bgc=C0C0C0&nbram=1&bbram=1&nbwm=1&bbwm=1

Looking good for the north and west of the region on this one. Wintry element is hit and miss at first but then becomes extensive as it heads NW.

[Mrsf16]

Iceberg just posted in the SW thread a VERY interesting chart!!!

[Ben_Cambs]

Defiently a trend now in Deep FI on GFS for a Bitterly Easterly spell at the start of March, but for now, maybe some sleet and snow for the far west of the region but thats it . Shall watch the week with great interest, because we are at risk of snow IMO. A slight shift of the LP further south = bingo for our region. (cold weather and risk of snow). No signs for spring yet and probably at cold start to meterological spring is on the cards

[shotski]

5c at 8am, think that says it all.

5c well below what it should be for this time of year and this has been one of the warmest days.

I think that says it all.

Bring on the beast from the east

[Ben_Cambs]

My next point of intrest goes to Thursday night now:

FAX chart T+60: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=60&carte=2000

What looks like a trough passes through our region on Thursday night into Friday. Some places in the region could see snow from this. The 528 DAM line runs straight through the middle of the region on this chart, which states that places north of this line are more likely to see snow than places south of this line, but im not writing off snow anywhere this week, as after this colder uppers filter into our region, and the 528 DAM line later on is in Northern France. Something to watch IMO.

PPN chart for T+60: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=60&carte=2000

Upgrades nearer the time could be very interesting

[Rich44]

Hmmmmmm

http://www.edp24.co.uk/content/edp24/news/story.aspx?brand=EDPOnline&category=News&tBrand=EDPOnline&tCategory=xDefault&itemid=NOED16%20Feb%202010%2014%3A13%3A06%3A680

[Hammer]

Temp 2c with Dew Point 0.7c

Reckon some places north west of here will do quite well. Let's see how much it weakens.

[Tim Bland]

Snow reports appearing in the SE thread. Still rain here in Stevenage but cant be far off now!

[Ben_Cambs]

Snow reports appearing in the SE thread. Still rain here in Stevenage but cant be far off now!

Im confident that the PPN will be of wintry nature here, it must be about 5 miles to my east at the moment or so looking at the radar

Edited February 16, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Hammer]

Well we will just miss out here. Temps heading in right direction as are dp's but ppn will fade. Looks good for a while further NW.

[Mrsf16]

Not even coming close here!! PPN about 80 miles too far south!!

I know TEITS said about it coming back again when it would have more snow potential.... but Im a bit cofuddled as to how that will happen. Can anyone educate me please?