Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[CRACKPOT]

Hi Guys,

A lot of doom & gloom in the MOD thread - yes things have 'downgraded' according to the 06Z - but could just as easily come back on line with an upgrade in the next runs - this block is going knowehere fast and has been stubborn for ages now - I think we might get a few surprises back on track later on this evening and tomorrow morning. Wales, I am convinced, will be involved in some good snow events this week.

Considering it was supposed to be 7 degrees today - it has only reached a blistering 4.3 degrees here today - lower starting point for later me thinks might be beneficial.

Keep chins up, I am sure things, as I say, will improve in the next 24 hours - be optimistic!

JK

Edited February 20, 2010 by CRACKPOT

[keithlucky]

Heavy wintery showers heading accross southern ireland should reach wales in a few hrs.

[DeepSnow]

Sky news weather say North of the M4 Corridor, hope we get some here! they said between 2-5cm so some places will most likely get a few inches if it happens

Temp now 6.9C after a high of 8C. Hope it cools down quickly tonight.

[andymusic]

Sky news weather say North of the M4 Corridor, hope we get some here! they said between 2-5cm so some places will most likely get a few inches if it happens

Temp now 6.9C after a high of 8C. Hope it cools down quickly tonight.

clear skies before the "front" moves in will get it nice and chilly for ya

just like last night

tomorrow's snow is in the bag I think

now I understand why the meto ain't warning about monday - the front is dropping further and further south as it's struggling against the colder air!!!!!!!!!!

Edited February 20, 2010 by andymusic

[DeepSnow]

clear skies before the "front" moves in will get it nice and chilly for ya

just like last night

Hope so, temp slowly dropping.

[andymusic]

Once the sun leaves us it'll drop quite quickly - still got quite a bit of snow even with the sun all day today

[DeepSnow]

I guess having the slightly warmer temps today has been a bit of a good thing in the sense everything is now dry, so when and if the snow gets here it is more likely to stick quicker

[andymusic]

I guess having the slightly warmer temps today has been a bit of a good thing in the sense everything is now dry, so when and if the snow gets here it is more likely to stick quicker

that's one part of it - it also helps if the ground is nice and chilled too

Edited February 20, 2010 by andymusic

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Well the risk of snow is certainly there still on the latest NAE and also the GFS 12Z.

Surface pressure charts show a small low developing over the Irish sea and heading towards N Wales:

http://expert.weathe...022100_2012.gif

http://expert.weathe...022106_2012.gif

http://expert.weathe...022106_2012.gif

The upper air temps over Wales arnt to bad around -4C.

However looking at the dewpoints and its visible that these will start to rise as the flow is coming off the sea:

http://expert.weathe...022106_2012.gif

So i would say its marginal for SW Wales especially for the areas right on the coast.

http://expert.weathe...022106_2012.gif

You can see the Snow Risk chart from the NAE- It shows Snow over all of Wales. Timing of this weather front appears to be great because its during the early hours, but i would keep a close eye on them dew points those in SW Wales- This shouldnt be a problem i dont think for N, E and Mid Wales where snow seems highly likely.

The GFS 12Z gives snow at first as the front runs into the colder air already in place but then the snow risk progresses further NE as the colder upper air is pushed back NE:

http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

[andymusic]

GFS 12z otherwise is quite a big downgrade for snow after monday but and this is a big but BUTT

after t96 you can disregard the run for now - it's kind of gone off on one - if this trend continues mind - then the game is up and milder weather is on it's way - amazing - just over 12 hours ago the GFS 18z was delivering the runs of all runs (blizzards - feet of snow) and now this - difficult when it churns out 4 runs a day I suppose - it's only a computer and it's just figuring things out with the data given to it then sizing up the probability of this or that happening - weather wise

[Marcus_surfer]

Can't win at the moment with this snowfall risk, last nights snow never came, and tonight snow looks further north now looking at the current satellite images

[andymusic]

Can't win at the moment with this snowfall risk, last nights snow never came, and tonight snow looks further north now looking at the current satellite images

It'll cover the whole of Wales - don't worry

New warning advisories now out for a small part of SE Wales for monday morning - Monmouthshire/newport/Torfaen - a further 7 cms of fresh snow

[alijoe]

It'll cover the whole of Wales - don't worry

New warning advisories now out for a small part of SE Wales for monday morning - Monmouthshire/newport/Torfaen - a further 7 cms of fresh snow

Ha, in my dreams. As soon as they mention my area, that is it.... NOTHING. they have doomed me. It is my son's birthday on Monday so we were hoping he would get the day off school as only a little snow closes it lol. Will go and get the uniform ready and the alarm clock as I really don't think now that we will get it. You will probably Andy but you know how difficult it is here.

[andymusic]

Ha, in my dreams. As soon as they mention my area, that is it.... NOTHING. they have doomed me. It is my son's birthday on Monday so we were hoping he would get the day off school as only a little snow closes it lol. Will go and get the uniform ready and the alarm clock as I really don't think now that we will get it. You will probably Andy but you know how difficult it is here.

Hi Ali the map is for tomorrow - sunday - and the new warnings that have appeared in the last hour are for monday for a select few in wales - which includes you - NEWPORT/Torfaen and Monmouthshire - very select - so you may well get some snow monday where I will miss out - this is all subject to the front coming as far north as is projected + other factors - so I think it'll be a nowcast situation again and watching the old radars

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Warning issued for parts of Wales:

Showers of rain, sleet and hill snow will spread eastwards later this evening and overnight across parts of Wales, leading to widespread icy roads and pavements.The public are advised to take extra care and refer to Traffic Wales for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1725 Sat 20 Feb

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wl/wl_forecast_warnings.html

[nomad098]

Temps in Cardiff dropping nicely dewpoints dropping

Cardiff barrage

Temp 4.6c

dp 0.7c

fingers crossed

I tend to follow the model thread and its got to be said what a fickle bunch they are in there

one run changes and its either the end of winter or the bigging of a new ice age when is it going to dawn on them that its always the middle ground with little swings either way

Well I hope all the snow lovers get what:cold: they wish for and for all the mildies lets hope we have a bbq summer

[andymusic]

Warning issued for parts of Wales:

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

that's a very interesting warning - another very selective group of counties that the showers will effect mmmmmmmmmm - be interesting to watch the radar later and see how things pan out

[J10]

Well the risk of snow is certainly there still on the latest NAE and also the GFS 12Z.

Surface pressure charts show a small low developing over the Irish sea and heading towards N Wales:

http://expert.weathe...022100_2012.gif

http://expert.weathe...022106_2012.gif

http://expert.weathe...022106_2012.gif

The upper air temps over Wales arnt to bad around -4C.

However looking at the dewpoints and its visible that these will start to rise as the flow is coming off the sea:

http://expert.weathe...022106_2012.gif

So i would say its marginal for SW Wales especially for the areas right on the coast.

http://expert.weathe...022106_2012.gif

You can see the Snow Risk chart from the NAE- It shows Snow over all of Wales. Timing of this weather front appears to be great because its during the early hours, but i would keep a close eye on them dew points those in SW Wales- This shouldnt be a problem i dont think for N, E and Mid Wales where snow seems highly likely.

The GFS 12Z gives snow at first as the front runs into the colder air already in place but then the snow risk progresses further NE as the colder upper air is pushed back NE:

http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

This is looking a mostly snow event, with a few slight exceptions as opposed to sometimes, where it is rain, but snow on hills.

So snow inland, and largely sticking, perhaps in the far SW, there may be a sleety mix along some coasts to the SW. But with the wind direction moving to the west later, this shouldn't be too bad.

The latest snow charts on the TV, seem to more promising too, obvious based on the latest NAE.

[andymusic]

Temps in Cardiff dropping nicely dewpoints dropping

Cardiff barrage

Temp 4.6c

dp 0.7c

fingers crossed

I tend to follow the model thread and its got to be said what a fickle bunch they are in there

one run changes and its either the end of winter or the bigging of a new ice age when is it going to dawn on them that its always the middle ground with little swings either way

Well I hope all the snow lovers get what:cold: they wish for and for all the mildies lets hope we have a bbq summer

I think the problem is the models don't know where they are going either and are finding the synoptics difficult to deal with so they are leading the model watchers a merry dance

[J10]

that's a very interesting warning - another very selective group of counties that the showers will effect mmmmmmmmmm - be interesting to watch the radar later and see how things pan out

To be honest, I would imagine a new warning coming out very promptly going for a fully snow event inland.

[Cymro]

That metoffice warning seems sketchy mind with this mention of hill snow I don't like it.

[dyl232]

what the chances of these blizzards nex friday lol

[andymusic]

To be honest, I would imagine a new warning coming out very promptly going for a fully snow event inland.

I'm with you on that one Jackone - upgraded shortly

[dyl232]

Where's monday's advisory gone???????????? - GFS still predicting snow for Wales Monday morning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

May be it's cause it's only Wales - Roll on METO CYMRU

End of next week - and this is the blizzard - mega snow and high winds progged for next friday morning

well out of the reliable time frame - but something to keep an eye on

what the chances of these blizzards nex friday lol

[andymusic]

That metoffice warning seems sketchy mind with this mention of hill snow I don't like it.

they are covering their backsides - being over night most of this is gonna be snow

what the chances of these blizzards nex friday lol

Can't give you any more info on that one just yet - GFS has thrown a wobbly today - this set up is causing the models loads of headaches - enjoy the snow the next couple of days we are going to get - I still feel there will be more through next week too