Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[Jayfromcardiff]

The advantage you guys do have tomorrow is dews remain sub zero all day according to 18z NAE

http://expert.weathe...022012_1918.gif

Thats the mildest they get all day

SK

Pointless with no ppn though mate.

[snowking]

Pointless with no ppn though mate.

Hmmm...

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/19/basis18/ukuk/prty/10022012_1918.gif

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/19/basis18/ukuk/prty/10022018_1918.gif

Nuff said?

SK

Edited February 20, 2010 by snowking

[Jayfromcardiff]

Hmmm...

http://expert.weathe...022012_1918.gif

http://expert.weathe...022018_1918.gif

Nuff said?

SK

Not like that according to BBC though.

[snowking]

Not like that according to BBC though.

I think this depends exactly how you are following the forecast

If you are following the BBC graphics to the nearest millimetre then no perhaps not, but it has been highlighted much elsewhere that the graphics on the national forecasts should be taken with a pinch of salt - they are not there to show with 100% accuracy where snow shower A and sleet shower B will be at 12.45 tomorrow afternoon, they are merely there as a general guide to expected conditions

Think of them more like the old graphics with the symbols - just because they placed a snow shower symbol over one area and a sunshine symbol directly next to it doesnt necessarily mean that the area shown on the map represented by the snow shower symbol (probably about a 30 sq mile area) is going to get snow, and vice versa with the area covered by the sunshine symbol. On the national BBC forecasts this is how the graphics should be treated - ask somebody such as Ian Fergusson for example, i'm sure he will tell you similarly

Its at a local level that the forecasters tend to fiddle around with the graphics packages a little to try and highlight the more likely positioning of precipitation - though it must be noted even in this instance it is only really when dealing with frontal systems of precipitation that this method can perhaps be employed, with showers it is always going to be impossible to show the exact positioning of them, showers are generally just represented by speckles of precipitation on the map across the general area they are expected to fall in - therefore in such instances they too should be treated like the old symbols

It is far more important with TV forecasting to pay attention to what the forecaster is saying as opposed to solely relying on the graphics - certainly on the BBC (of course on Channel 5 or Sky news weather for example, other parts of the forecast may grab your attention a little more...)

SK

[Marcus_surfer]

I think you're right.

Yes. Shower activity continues to affect North Wales at the moment, if that does continue, quite large accumalations expected there...Something which the BBC have not forecast. Also SW England is in the firing line for some beefy snow showers especially on higher ground.

[Marcus_surfer]

Heres what i think will continue into dawn.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Heres what i think will continue into dawn.

Sucks don't it, i'm off to bed now night....see what's going on in the morning.

[DeepSnow]

Just looked at rain today and the precip is over sw england by the looks of it, so nothing for us then? current temp -3.4C

[bluetoff]

Woke up to a couple of inches here on the North Wales coast. Was coming down heavy at 7.30am stopped now.

[liamcymro]

Looking at the Traffic Cams - Snow from Bangor->Llanfairfechan->Conwy->Rhyl->Rhuallt - Reports of around 2inch snow at Llanfairfechan which is right on the coast. Here further inland towards Snowdon, another dusting of snow here around 3cm on top of around 5cm since yesterday. Cumulonimbus / Anvils toward the East. Temperature a now very cold -2.8C

[CardiffStorm]

So GFS was right after all!!

[in the vale]

We have about an inch here, v light showers coming in from the west through the night. -1.2C min overnight, although it has just slipped below 0 again as the skies have cleared.

[Jayfromcardiff]

So GFS was right after all!!

Meto forecast Heavy snow for us for 9am lol!

[matty lfc]

Glorious winters morning up here,not a cloud in the sky.

According to last nights Welsh BBC forecast,i should have woken up to a light covering of snow!!!

[andymusic]

Short term the GFS tends to be right most of the time - it was bullish last night about no snow showers until lunchtime and into the afternoon today - so DAN THE MAN CORBETT - oh dear - a bit of a mistake there - these weather set ups (snow) are a right forecaster's nightmare and can do some harm to careers I bet

Edited February 20, 2010 by andymusic

[Jayfromcardiff]

Short term the GFS tends to be right most of the time - it was bullish last night about no snow showers until lunchtime and into the afternoon today - so DAN THE MAN CORBETT - oh dear - a bit of a mistake there - these weather set ups (snow) are a right forecaster's nightmare and can do some harm to careers I bet

Meto are wrong too, they can't even forecast a few hours before it happens.....had heavy snow down and light snow for cardiff starting 9am!

[welshy]

we have had a dusting of snow here in Aberdare, but it is melting now. The sun is shining on Maerdy mountain and its a beautiful day

[andymusic]

Meto are wrong too, they can't even forecast a few hours before it happens.....had heavy snow down and light snow for cardiff starting 9am!

we might get a few snow showers later in the afternoon - next tidy attack with snow should be tomorrow morning - GFS is still on for that one and the Beeb and the meto - so everyone's aboard the snow train for tomorrow morning - starting early hours I think

Then monday morning which looks a good un' too - with a meto advisory out for us and GFS agreement at the moment

we have had a dusting of snow here in Aberdare, but it is melting now. The sun is shining on Maerdy mountain and its a beautiful day

Yep - enjoy the sunshine folks - gonna need sun glasses up here with all the glare coming off this snow we had two days ago and last nights sealent - FROST we got

Edited February 20, 2010 by andymusic

[andymusic]

Meto are wrong too, they can't even forecast a few hours before it happens.....had heavy snow down and light snow for cardiff starting 9am!

from what I can see on the radar Jay - a snow shower must have skimmed Barry early hours this morning - that's how close this thing was just too many miles further south just the way the GFS had it!

[J10]

Meto are wrong too, they can't even forecast a few hours before it happens.....had heavy snow down and light snow for cardiff starting 9am!

The NAE model for 12HZ last night was wrong, however it was corrected on the 18Hz run and as a result, later forecast s were closer to what actually happened.

Going forward a potential snow event tonight, but this could be marginal again. The main thing in our favour is the timing bang in the middle of the night.

GFS not looking half as good for next week for Wales, with milder air now associated with the fronts, and not really allowing any NW wind to to cut in across Wales behind the fronts, apart from possibly on Wednesday night.

The pattern will change, but will this be for the better.

[Snowmadsam]

hi guys woke up to nothing this morning but beeb weather is showing heavy snow for me at 12:00 clouds here are now starting to form to. They seem to be towering what does this mean?

[Angleseylad]

Really heavy snow here...and settling nicely

[Cymro]

Well a no show but a thick heavy frost which is always nice too see.

[andymusic]

The NAE model for 12HZ last night was wrong, however it was corrected on the 18Hz run and as a result, later forecast s were closer to what actually happened.

Going forward a potential snow event tonight, but this could be marginal again. The main thing in our favour is the timing bang in the middle of the night.

GFS not looking half as good for next week for Wales, with milder air now associated with the fronts, and not really allowing any NW wind to to cut in across Wales behind the fronts.

Fair point Jackone - but with this set up there's a lot of chopping and changing of the models on each run - lots of marginality which could go one way or the other - it's a knife edge - I know we look forward up to a week and wonder at the charts eg. the blizzard from hell is still showing for thursday night/friday night but I think we gotta just go 1 - 2 days in advance - I think our chances tonight are pretty good at getting some snow and then a possible snow event again monday morning looks probable too - it's edge of your seat stuff though - gripping - and exciting to watch develope

hi guys woke up to nothing this morning but beeb weather is showing heavy snow for me at 12:00 clouds here are now starting to form to. They seem to be towering what does this mean?

no snow showers until possibly later this afternoon - if at all - next snow overnight tonight possibly and into the morning

Edited February 20, 2010 by andymusic

[J10]

Fair point Jackone - but with this set up there's a lot of chopping and changing of the models on each run - lots of marginality which could go one way or the other - it's a knife edge - I know we look forward up to a week and wonder at the charts eg. the blizzard from hell is still showing for thursday night/friday night but I think we gotta just go 1 - 2 days in advance - I think our chances tonight are pretty good at getting some snow and then a possible snow event again monday morning looks probable too - it's edge of your seat stuff though - gripping - and exciting to watch develope

no snow showers until possibly later this afternoon - if at all - next snow overnight tonight possibly and into the morning

Yesterday's charts were awesome, definitely worthy of being called a pub run. As for tomorrow, NAE has a mostly snow event

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201002200600&VAR=prty&HH=18&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

Unfortunately the rain snow split on the 24 hr chart isn't working, but I would imagine that would be mostly snow, of course as usual being inland and any altitude helps.

One final point for the GFS early next week, we would like to see on following runs the low pressure slightly further south and east, keeping the milder further away, and the low pressure NOT merging up to give a long wave tough, which would prevent the colder air digging in behind the LP as they pass through,