Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[keithlucky]

Dissapointed with no snow last night but thats the nature of showers hit and miss,nice to see weather warning just issued for wales tonight between 4cm and 10cms prospects look a lot better with timing of snow reaching pembroke around 9pm pushing westwards.front looks quite active,a nice 6cms would be great.Forum should be red hot tonight.

Edited February 20, 2010 by keithlucky

[Jayfromcardiff]

Dissapointed with no snow last night but thats the nature of showers hit and miss,nice to see weather warning just issued for wales tonight between 4cm and 10cms prospects look a lot better with timing of snow reaching pembroke around 9pm pushing westwards.front looks quite active,a nice 6cms would be great.Forum should be red hot tonight.

Cardiff is the only place not in the warning area lmao.

[keithlucky]

Dont worry devon getting sleet snow so will you.Smack on cardiff 12pm according to met office rainfall radar.

Edited February 20, 2010 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

Where's monday's advisory gone???????????? - GFS still predicting snow for Wales Monday morning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

May be it's cause it's only Wales - Roll on METO CYMRU

End of next week - and this is the blizzard - mega snow and high winds progged for next friday morning

well out of the reliable time frame - but something to keep an eye on

[Jayfromcardiff]

Where's monday's advisory gone???????????? - GFS still predicting snow for Wales Monday morning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

May be it's cause it's only Wales - Roll on METO CYMRU

End of next week - and this is the blizzard - mega snow and high winds progged for next friday morning

well out of the reliable time frame - but something to keep an eye on

Mate why isn't cardiff in the warning for tonight.

[DeepSnow]

Clouds building here, sun has gone and temp now at 4.5C after a low of -3.5C this morning. Im not sure why the far SE of wales is not in the weather watch by meto? strange but glad to see Bridgend is in there! im sure if we get snow here though it would get to you lot over there??

[andymusic]

Mate why isn't cardiff in the warning for tonight.

The front that is crossing us tonight is a "warm" front - it is possible that coastal areas such as cardiff may struggle to get snow - however - due to the fact the snow/sleet/rain - is due over night I do think you still have a chance of getting in on the snow too - it's not written in stone Jay - the meto and beeb were very wrong today about the snow showers - so they could well be wrong about your advisory too for tomorrow morning

[DeepSnow]

The front that is crossing us tonight is a "warm" front - it is possible that coastal areas such as cardiff may struggle to get snow - however - due to the fact the snow/sleet/rain - is due over night I do think you still have a chance of getting in on the snow too - it's not written in stone Jay - the meto and beeb were very wrong today about the snow showers - so they could well be wrong about your advisory too for tomorrow morning

Even though the advisory covers Bridgend, would the warm front have an effect on where i am as the nearest coast to me is only roughly 5miles to the west?

[andymusic]

Even though the advisory covers Bridgend, would the warm front have an effect on where i am as the nearest coast to me is only roughly 5miles to the west?

It takes the slightly warmer air to produce the front in these set ups - so it is a necessary evil - but due to the timing - over night - I can't see how anywhere in Wales will have anything but snow

Edited February 20, 2010 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Even though the advisory covers Bridgend, would the warm front have an effect on where i am as the nearest coast to me is only roughly 5miles to the west?

Good chance should have temps not far off 0 looks pretty good for all of wales.

[andymusic]

Still got a lovely covering of snow here - even with the midday sun - amazing ( AND NO - I'M NOT SITTING ON THE TOP OF SNOWDONIA)

Edited February 20, 2010 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Mate why isn't cardiff in the warning for tonight.

You keep on showing these charts andy the only people in wales affected by the snow are mountain goats.

[andymusic]

You keep on showing these charts andy the only people in wales affected by the snow are mountain goats.

are you accusing me of being a mountain goat - the charts are representative of what the GFS is showing - it showed nothing for today and got it spot on - and for tomorrow morning it is showing a wintry mix but due to over night temps I'm willing to bet we'll have mostly snow like the meto are showing

[keithlucky]

are you accusing me of being a mountain goat - the charts are representative of what the GFS is showing - it showed nothing for today and got it spot on - and for tomorrow morning it is showing a wintry mix but due to over night temps I'm willing to bet we'll have mostly snow like the meto are showing

Enjoy the snow tonight because i beliieve this will be our last snow covering of the winter.

[andymusic]

You keep on showing these charts andy the only people in wales affected by the snow are mountain goats.

I do understand your frustration if you have no snow - both cardiff and swansea were built by the coast for a reason - weather, topography and commercial reasons - unfortunately weather wise snow is harder to get nearer the coast - that doesn't mean we all live on the coast - a great place to be in the summer mind and I've cycled the mumbles front many a time and had an ice cream on the pier - some of us do live up in the valleys and in central wales etc so conditions then will be different - a lot different!

Enjoy the snow tonight because i beliieve this will be our last snow covering of the winter.

I beg to differ - I think this next week may turn out to be the snowiest of all for Wales!!!!!!!!!!!

[soupsurfer7]

Is this feature going to give us some snow tonight?

[kold weather]

Its somewhat uncertain Keith to be honest, the 06z isn't that snowy IMO away from northern Wales and on the leading edge of any front, but as I've said in other threads, because your on the western side of the low, even small changes could well bring the whole of Wales into play, needless to say there is a risk, esp for more northern parts of some big falls of snow, we are talking about say 20-30cms possibly over the week...

Tonight looks decent as well, as Andy said the timings of the front does help you guys out quite a lot, so most places bar the coastal parts should have snow I expect.

[soupsurfer7]

This videos quite interesting, shows how the jetstream has changed since november:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/news/newsid_8525000/8525561.stm

Can someone explain where the air is currently coming from? I'm a bit confused because fronts are coming from the south and west but it's still cold enough for sleet and snow :S

[keithlucky]

I do understand your frustration if you have no snow - both cardiff and swansea were built by the coast for a reason - weather, topography and commercial reasons - unfortunately weather wise snow is harder to get nearer the coast - that doesn't mean we all live on the coast - a great place to be in the summer mind and I've cycled the mumbles front many a time and had an ice cream on the pier - some of us do live up in the valleys and in central wales etc so conditions then will be different - a lot different!

I take a bow to andy if you right but with day temps around wales of 5c only the mountain goats will see snow(no more charts please)

I beg to differ - I think this next week may turn out to be the snowiest of all for Wales!!!!!!!!!!!

[andymusic]

Is this feature going to give us some snow tonight?

Yes

This videos quite interesting, shows how the jetstream has changed since november:

http://news.bbc.co.u...000/8525561.stm

Can someone explain where the air is currently coming from? I'm a bit confused because fronts are coming from the south and west but it's still cold enough for sleet and snow :S

There is loads of cold air over us and just to the north and east of us also - the pressure systems are holding the cold air in place and lows/fronts are trying to run up against this cold air and move it - but they are failing and moving across the country rather than going north like they would - this means that when a low comes up against the cold air it changes it's precip to snow and even if the low does manage to warm up the air slightly - as the low exits britain it drags the cold air back down when it leaves - there's kind of it

[Jayfromcardiff]

Yes

There is loads of cold air over us and just to the north and east of us also - the pressure systems are holding the cold air in place and lows/fronts are trying to run up against this cold air and move it - but they are failing and moving across the country rather than going north like they would - this means that when a low comes up against the cold air it changes it's precip to snow and even if the low does manage to warm up the air slightly - as the low exits britain it drags the cold air back down when it leaves - there's kind of it

I have a feeling i'll see rain.

[keithlucky]

Its somewhat uncertain Keith to be honest, the 06z isn't that snowy IMO away from northern Wales and on the leading edge of any front, but as I've said in other threads, because your on the western side of the low, even small changes could well bring the whole of Wales into play, needless to say there is a risk, esp for more northern parts of some big falls of snow, we are talking about say 20-30cms possibly over the week...

Tonight looks decent as well, as Andy said the timings of the front does help you guys out quite a lot, so most places bar the coastal parts should have snow I expect.

Over the years the old often used met forecasters saying snow midlands northwards. This time of year we often need the precipation overnight to produce the snow for us in the swest.Even for the mountain goats the met have removed the weather warnings for monday.

Edited February 20, 2010 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

I have a feeling i'll see rain.

Keep the faith Jay - and go to your dads in Llanishen (if I've got that right) - more chance of seeing something there may be

[Jayfromcardiff]

Keep the faith Jay - and go to your dads in Llanishen (if I've got that right) - more chance of seeing something there may be

Lol, not much difference between where i live and there mate.

[J10]

Where's monday's advisory gone???????????? - GFS still predicting snow for Wales Monday morning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

May be it's cause it's only Wales - Roll on METO CYMRU

End of next week - and this is the blizzard - mega snow and high winds progged for next friday morning

Those charts posted by Andy over emphasise the chance of snow.

Below give a more realistic prediction of likely snowfall, based on the 06Hz, of course this is subject to change.