Model Output Discussion

[kev238]

on this run small changes that have a big effect on weather experienced even 36 hours out! I dont think this will be clear until Sunday evening or Monday morning. The very Northwestern strip of precipitation should be snow but where that will be is anyones guess. I think the trend is likely to be south but this run pushes the low pressure further in!

[conor123]

The GFS has now fallen into like with the NAE for Monday again, though i still think it will get pushed a smidge further south again.

[Cheese Rice]

ok heres some charts to futher explain what i mean there all around 96h to 120h and im not suggesting that futher out cold might no return because i dont want to make this thread explode with rage lol.

anyway thease are all the model outputs and i do tend to look for the 0 line.

they all look like there trending towards different weather type rather than cold snowy.

They all look like a typical channel low, bringing (temporary) slightly milder air to the south with the colder air flooding back in behind the low.

Edited February 20, 2010 by 10123

[R.P. McMurphy]

I can say I don't agree badboy at all. I don't see the models pointing to so called mild weather. Next week looks great for cold and snow especially, there isn't any point in looking any further say T368 because that's just pure FI. Let's concentrate on the now casting rather than hope casting.

[MR EXTREMES]

I can say I don't agree badboy at all. I don't see the models pointing to so called mild weather. Next week looks great for cold and snow especially, there isn't any point in looking any further say T368 because that's just pure FI. Let's concentrate on the now casting rather than hope casting.

of coarse no good looking into fi thats why all the charts are not t368 out.

and 10123 they look like low pressure systems sucking milder air into the mix but im not saying blowtourch im saying average and i also agree ive seen white easter weekends before.

im not going to be bullied by people who like myself like the cold im just giving my thoughts.

[kev238]

Personally I think that after this week, then it will turn milder; but as there is so much to focus on over the next 6-7 days there is no point in thinking about that at the moment!

[MR EXTREMES]

Personally I think that after this week, then it will turn milder; but as there is so much to focus on over the next 6-7 days there is no point in thinking about that at the moment!

no ofcoarse i do agree the focus is for the next few days and it looks good there is going to be plenty of snow on offer but at the moment where lol.

[kold weather]

Still a very messy set-up, the problem is we never quite clear the cloud out the way which doesn't allow the cloud to clear which makes it marginal for the Midlands southwards quite a lot of the time.

However saying that ther eis still plenty of prospects for snow on this run, and what we see is a very slow push northwards of the less cold air, however I have some doubts about this because of the way the LP for Monday has also trended quite a lot southwards, typically they do tend to be shifted southwards.

Past 96hrs and the GFS develops a low over the UK which would push the front into Scotland...a rather prolonged breakdown on the 18z...

However as I said, I have HUGE doubts about any solution past 48hrs at the moment!

[swfc]

Not very scientific but i think we have quite a lot of catching up to do via the atlantic.???.its just a hunch that spring ans early summer will be very wet and windy.As for the current outlook id go for upcoming lows heading further south .Looks like a forecasters nightmare over the next 72 hrs ete.good luck to them.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Still a very messy set-up, the problem is we never quite clear the cloud out the way Which does not allow the cloud to clear Which makes it marginal for the Midlands southwards quite a lot of the time.

However saying that ther eis still plenty of prospects for snow on this run, and what we see is a very slow push northwards of the less cold air, however I have some doubts about this because of the way the LP for Monday has also trended quite a lot southwards, typically they do tends to be shifted southwards.

Past 96hrs and the GFS develops a low over the UK Which would push the front into Scotland ... a rather prolonged breakdown on the 18z ...

However as I said, I have HUGE doubts about any past 48hrs solution at the moment!

-8 Uppers pushing in from the north at +120 into the front - huge snowfall in eastern Scotland/northern England http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-120.png?18 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-114.png?18

Edited February 20, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Cheese Rice]

Wednesday low looks further south, I would expect further movements south.

I think this is the true meaning of a mild sector.

[Frosty.]

Thankfully the 18z looks a lot colder than the 12z for next week with the low much further south.

[lukemc]

Hi,

How is my area doing for the latest snow risk this week (i.e. the North West) the reason why I am asking this is it would be nice to see quite a bit of snow in what is the last week of official meteorological winter to put the icing on the cake for this winter, do you think we could see quite a bit this week as earlier models where putting our part of the north in the firing line this week (think the 0600 hrs GFS) - and as this week could be best described as a battleground situation between cold and milder air do you think we could see something similar to February 1996 or March 2006 which brought quite a lot of snow to NW England/N Wales?

Luke

[Harsh Climate]

If we comapre this run to last nights 18z, the low is further north.. This time southern parts of scotland/northernmost parts of england are laughing... We really can only take a day at a time at the moment

[kold weather]

Well the 96-120hrs is an evolution that isn't far from a good evolution for S.Scotland, though the jet pattern is still a little too surpressed for your location in the end, and becomes a good pattern for N.England.

If you really want to be basic, if there is any prolonged clear spells ahead of any of these systems, it'll allow dew points to drop away and a marginal set-up shall ensure.

So Monday-Wednesday looks like a slow evolution northwards looking at the 18z GFS run, then after that much depends on exactly how much cold can come down the west side of any low and how marginal it will be, certainly a horrid set-up to forecast, just about anything could happen!

[Frosty.]

The differences between the GFS 12z & 18z at T+144 hours are so enormous it is laughable but I hope the 18z is closer to reality as it shows potential blizzards causing widespread disruption around the middle to end of next week.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Well the 96-120hrs is an evolution that isn't far from a good evolution for S.Scotland, though the jet pattern is still a little too surpressed for your location in the end, and becomes a good pattern for N.England.

If you really want to be basic, if there is any prolonged clear spells ahead of any of these systems, it'll allow dew points to drop away and a marginal set-up shall ensure.

So Monday-Wednesday looks like a slow evolution northwards looking at the 18z GFS run, then after that much depends on exactly how much cold can come down the west side of any low and how marginal it will be, certainly a horrid set-up to forecast, just about anything could happen!

It really is a balancing act - you need to have the low far enough north to bring precipitation but at the same time if it's too far north you end up with milder air getting in and if it doesn't move away to the east the cold uppers can't be brought back in again and the winter is effectively over!

edit: Having looked at it again, the 18Z is probably the snowiest solution eastern Scotland is likely to see - http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100220/18/135/h850t850eu.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100220/18/141/ukprec.png

After the initial front hits with moderate-light but on this run 18 hours of precipitation the above would be quite something.

LS

Edited February 20, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Higher Ground]

I don't mind what happens beyond 1st March, but up to 28th Feb, I am quite keen for the weather to keep helping the winter statistics as far as possible, *for as much of the UK as possible*, to trend as close as they can towards historic levels of cold and snowiness overall.

GFS 18z doesn't seem to do a bad job so far at all. Certainly nothing "mild". ("Close to average" perhaps at times in the south).

Here at altitude in the West Mids we currently have up to 10cm of snow still from Wed/Thu (was out night sledging at 7pm!) and Met Office weather warnings totalling potential 32cm of further snow (10+7+15) up to Wed.

What a fascinating end to winter (or should I say the official winter months....)

Edited February 20, 2010 by Higher Ground

[kold weather]

The differences between the GFS 12z & 18z at T+144 hours are so enormous it is laughable but I hope the 18z is closer to reality as it shows potential blizzards causing widespread disruption around the middle to end of next week.

Its not a bad evolution for the north thats for sure, there are probably 2 good snow events for the north of England, the midlands also get a couple of decent snow events as well so its well worth watching the next few days.

The 18z gives a slightly different evolution with a weak high coming down from to our NW and a low helps to prop it up till the end of the month.

[Cheese Rice]

I think that the low on Wednesday will shift further south with the main risk been southern Northern England but not this time not for the Midlands. Although on the face of it this doesn't look too good for Scotland you will actually want the low further south as you will be in-line for a North/North east winds, even though this doesn't bring very cold uppers it will bring a streamer of heavy snow showers which will be far more interesting than a marginal wet snow "event". http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

Edited February 20, 2010 by 10123

[swfc]

Ltest fax charts look very messy to be honest.latest beeb forecast shows 8c for monday in south and east.snow risk into lincolnshire ete.???

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think that the low on Wednesday will shift further south with the main risk been southern Northern England but not this time not for the Midlands. Although on the face of it this doesn't look too good for Scotland you will actually want the low further south as you will be in-line for a North/North east winds, even though this doesn't bring very cold uppers it will bring a streamer of heavy snow showers which will be far more interesting than a marginal wet snow "event". http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

Nah, northerlies are useless here and showers are pretty volatile - given the winter we've had I'd rather see a big one off frontal event than showery few days which would have more melt due to sunshine being stronger - at least with one off snow if it hits at night temperatures would stay pretty low during the day with precipitation still falling. Monday though sees a potential easterly according to the 18Z though with uppers only -7/-8 I suspect it wouldn't be much cop anyway.

LS

[kold weather]

Will be interesting to see what the ensembles decide to do on the 18z solutions.

As it stands everywhere from the Midlands upto say Central Scotland would get probably at least one decent snow shot from the 18z, so fairly well spread out, though the great risk on this run has to be for N.England.

I've got a feeling however it will once again get shifted southwards just like this evolution has, maybe not by a huge amount but I think main risk zone myself will be Southern parts of northern England, however in this evolution sooner or later a low will come on a more northerly track and spread snow into more northern parts, its just a question of what low it is that does the job.

I actually am quite interested in the 18z, it would give a rather active front for the south with probably thundery bursts as well for friday morning...

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Still a very messy set-up, the problem is we never quite clear the cloud out the way which doesn't allow the cloud to clear which makes it marginal for the Midlands southwards quite a lot of the time.

However saying that ther eis still plenty of prospects for snow on this run, and what we see is a very slow push northwards of the less cold air, however I have some doubts about this because of the way the LP for Monday has also trended quite a lot southwards, typically they do tend to be shifted southwards.

Past 96hrs and the GFS develops a low over the UK which would push the front into Scotland...a rather prolonged breakdown on the 18z...

However as I said, I have HUGE doubts about any solution past 48hrs at the moment!

So in what timeframe would you call the models correct, I dont say this in a sarcastic manner I just need to know when its nailed pardon the expression?

[Mark Bayley]

Will be interesting to see what the ensembles decide to do on the 18z solutions.

As it stands everywhere from the Midlands upto say Central Scotland would get probably at least one decent snow shot from the 18z, so fairly well spread out, though the great risk on this run has to be for N.England.

I've got a feeling however it will once again get shifted southwards just like this evolution has, maybe not by a huge amount but I think main risk zone myself will be Southern parts of northern England, however in this evolution sooner or later a low will come on a more northerly track and spread snow into more northern parts, its just a question of what low it is that does the job.

I actually am quite interested in the 18z, it would give a rather active front for the south with probably thundery bursts as well for friday morning...

What would classify as southern parts of Northern England? Lincoln North?

GFS 18z looks very good for northern England. Everyone in the Midlands north has a shot at some snow if we include tomorrow. Doesn't look exactly mild either till the start of FI (T180 onwards). Will be interesting to see how the models handle these lows over coming days. Personally I'm hoping for them to be shifted further south!