Model Output Discussion

[R.P. McMurphy]

Nailed on can only be a now cast, as in the minute you are watching the developments. Model wise for 70% certainty would be around 24 hours.

[kold weather]

Whats quite amazing is that whilst there is strengthening agreement for Monday, there are still some runs that end up in Scotland whilst others that end up in France.

After Monday-Tuesday just about anything could happen looking at the ensembles, whilst there is broad agreement on the pattern set-up there is a big difference with just how far north the fronts end up, even small pressure differences look like making quite big differences in the actual weather for a good part of the country.

[cooling climate]

With the models changing on every run I just don't see the point of dissecting every run

and discussing the areas where snow looks likely only for it all to change on the following

run. Pretty pointless I think

The only thing I would say is the low on monday looks like it could very well run along the

channel but this far out its useless looking any further the way the models are at the

moment.

[kent]

Interested to read your comments KW on the possibility of thunder storms for the south next Friday concerning the probable breakdown of current synoptics based on the 18z. Hence the reason why the net seven dayer is showing torrential icy rain for my region in Poole next Thursday. Been scratching my head on that one. Every run throws up a different scenario. Wouldnt be at all surprised the way its being shunted South if it doesnt become an Isle of Wight event lol.

[scotto]

Has anyone else noticed that the NMM isnt working properly, with the maps showing but nothing else. Also does anyone have an idea why the NAE isnt out yet. Typical as I want to see what is going to happen tomorrow and through thestart of the week ...

[TEITS]

Whats quite amazing is that whilst there is strengthening agreement for Monday, there are still some runs that end up in Scotland whilst others that end up in France.

After Monday-Tuesday just about anything could happen looking at the ensembles, whilst there is broad agreement on the pattern set-up there is a big difference with just how far north the fronts end up, even small pressure differences look like making quite big differences in the actual weather for a good part of the country.

Some members in N England/Scotland won't be pleased with what im about to say but the LP between Wed/Thurs looks as though the centre of the LP might be between either the M4 or along the channel. I am definitely seeing signs from the models that this will track further S than we currently thought. At the moment my guess is the LP will be centred along the S coast with the precip band extending as far N as the N Midlands possibly S parts of N England.

The chart below is what im thinking.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-96.png?18

[LomondSnowstorm]

Some members in N England/Scotland won't be pleased with what im about to say but the LP between Wed/Thurs looks as though the centre of the LP might be between either the M4 or along the channel. I am definitely seeing signs from the models that this will track further S than we currently thought. At the moment my guess is the LP will be centred along the S coast with the precip band extending as far N as the N Midlands possibly S parts of N England.

The chart below is what im thinking.

http://91.121.94.83/...s-0-1-96.png?18

No, I'm actually quite happy with that scenario - more cold air stays in place, a cold easterly flow might bring a few snow showers and the breakdown is further prolonged, though I would be happier to see some frontal snow in the reliable but of course, the reliable timeframe is really just the first half of the NAE charts!

[johnholmes]

Has anyone else noticed that the NMM isnt working properly, with the maps showing but nothing else. Also does anyone have an idea why the NAE isnt out yet. Typical as I want to see what is going to happen tomorrow and through thestart of the week ...

I've raised a note for Karl who is the only one whilst Paul is away that may be able to sort it. He is not on line so we may have to wait a while for any chance of it being sorted.

John H

[LomondSnowstorm]

I've raised a note for Karl who is the only one whilst Paul is away that may be able to sort it. He is not on line so we may have to wait a while for any chance of it being sorted.

John H

Odd, seems to be some sort of mesoscale model meltdown as the NAE refuses to update also!

[damianslaw]

Mondays low looks like giving only snow for areas on the northern flank of the front i.e. mid/east wales and the midlands yet again could get some temporary snow cover.

The path of the low pressure due to move through the country later tuesday and into wednesday is still a guess. Given recent lows have taken a southerly path I can understand why people are being cautious with what the GFS is showing and the UKMO to a certain extent, however, the trend is for milder air to increasingly move north, I can see the low taking a more northerly path with the centre of the low over the midlands.

Every chance we will see a colder NE flow dig around the low later next week maintaining the cold theme - hopefully heights will build in from the west to give a cold sunny weekend with snow on the ground for the northern half of the country - a fitting end to a memorable winter.

Expect further twists and turns with where the models choose to position this low middle of next week.

[Eugene]

Mondays low looks like giving only snow for areas on the northern flank of the front i.e. mid/east wales and the midlands yet again could get some temporary snow cover.

As was always the case damian though now with a risk the front will shunt too far south for the midlands keeping us in cold air

Very interesting week coming up and all these spring posts ive seen on weather forums are nonsense, at worst it looks wet and windy with temps slightly above average by day, hardly what i would call ideal spring weather, the razors would be out if we got this kind of setup mid April onwards as it would be so unseasonal.

Edited February 21, 2010 by Eugene

[andymusic]

GFS 00z - brings snow south again - loads and loads of snow for Wales - within the reliable 12 hours of snow for all of monday and then more snow beyond that

[robert]

Great 00z with lot's of snow around next week. Over a foot of snow here for me at the moment and still like a blizzard outside on the staffs Cheshire border.

[Frosty.]

An interesting week ahead according to the 00z runs, heavy disruptive snow is likely to affect the midlands and northern england for much of next week (including today of course) but for southern england it will be more of a rain/sleet mix and that also includes today as temps reach 4-6c across the south but nearer 3c across the midlands and northern england. Further north looks cold and bright with coastal snow showers becoming more frequent and heavier around northern & eastern coasts of scotland as NE'ly winds increase fresh to strong during the week so there could be some disruption up there too. Beyond next week the models are showing more cold weather but more settled as high pressure pushes across the uk possibly followed by low pressure and maybe more snow followed by rain and milder air but that's a long way off.

[snowmadchrisuk]

An interesting week ahead according to the 00z runs, heavy disruptive snow is likely to affect the midlands and northern england for much of next week (including today of course) but for southern england it will be more of a rain/sleet mix and that also includes today as temps reach 4-6c across the south but nearer 3c across the midlands and northern england. Further north looks cold and bright with coastal snow showers becoming more frequent and heavier around northern & eastern coasts of scotland as NE'ly winds increase fresh to strong during the week so there could be some disruption up there too. Beyond next week the models are showing more cold weather but more settled as high pressure pushes across the uk possibly followed by low pressure and maybe more snow followed by rain and milder air but that's a long way off.

I'm not sure about that Frosty GFS/ECM/GEM/NOGAPS all suggest Milder Air over the Midlands on Wednesday and make most of the precipitation rain . This Low could go South as has been the recent trend but it is a strong low from the SW and looks more like a break down low thank anything else. We have to hope it doesn't go North East or it would reset the patten.

[Frosty.]

I'm not sure about that Frosty GFS/ECM/GEM/NOGAPS all suggest Milder Air over the Midlands on Wednesday and make most of the precipitation rain . This Low could go South as has been the recent trend but it is a strong low from the SW and looks more like a break down low thank anything else. We have to hope it doesn't go North East or it would reset the patten.

Fair enough, I should have said north midlands but it even turns less cold there later in the week but the main low could still adjust south so it's not all over yet but southern england looks like missing out on the fun next week unless there is a miracle. Scotland looks best placed for a very cold week with frosty nights and snow in many areas as the week progresses.

[winterof79]

An interesting week ahead according to the 00z runs, heavy disruptive snow is likely to affect the midlands and northern england for much of next week (including today of course) but for southern england it will be more of a rain/sleet mix and that also includes today as temps reach 4-6c across the south but nearer 3c across the midlands and northern england. Further north looks cold and bright with coastal snow showers becoming more frequent and heavier around northern & eastern coasts of scotland as NE'ly winds increase fresh to strong during the week so there could be some disruption up there too. Beyond next week the models are showing more cold weather but more settled as high pressure pushes across the uk possibly followed by low pressure and maybe more snow followed by rain and milder air but that's a long way off.

Well summed up Frosty as ever.I have to say that if you live anywhere north of the midlands up to the Boarders,it doesnt get any better if you like heavy disruptive snow according to wetter this morning.This week could be the worst spell of weather of the winter for quite a few inland areas escpecially. I should add that areas with elevation further south are not exempt.I would be interested to here Mr Fergussons thoughts.

Edited February 21, 2010 by winterof79

[Frosty.]

Well summed up Frosty as ever.I have to say that if you live anywhere north of the midlands up to the Boarders,it doesnt get any better if you like heavy disruptive snow according to wetter this morning.This week could be the worst spell of weather of the winter for quite a few inland areas escpecially. I should add that areas with elevation further south are not exempt.I would be interested to here Mr Fergussons thoughts.

Thanks winterof79,

Yes it's looking very wintry for northern england especially although tomorrow it could be the midlands which is worst hit but then northern england from midweek through to next weekend, it makes a change for northern england to be in the best position for heavy disruptive snow but this might be our lucky week, the pennines could get a real pasting and scotland again looks coldest with the most frost and any showers falling as snow.

Edited February 21, 2010 by Frosty039

[Lakes Tom]

Well summed up Frosty as ever.I have to say that if you live anywhere north of the midlands up to the Boarders,it doesnt get any better if you like heavy disruptive snow according to wetter this morning.This week could be the worst spell of weather of the winter for quite a few inland areas escpecially. I should add that areas with elevation further south are not exempt.I would be interested to here Mr Fergussons thoughts.

I agree entirely with your comments. Acoording to the last two runs from the GFS and the last ECM run, Northern England is in prime position for heavy snowfall. This area looks to benefit from not only some of the heaviest precipitation from the passing lows, but also stays on the right side of upper air temps throughout the week. Obviously still open to change, but all things point to a spell of wild winter weather this week! :lol:

Edited February 21, 2010 by Lakes Tom

[TEITS]

Using the NAE & Fax charts and I have a rough idea about next week.

Whilst some are already enjoying snowfall as I type, including myself, the next round of snowfall will move in tomorrow morning. The E midlands/Lincs to SE Wales look in the firing line for more snow.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/21/basis00/ukuk/prty/10022218_2100.gif

During Tues/Wed more snowfall will occur around Wales/Midlands before this risk then moves further N to affect much of N England.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

Towards the end of the week we could see the risk move further S if the ECM is correct as a LP tracks NE leaving the Norfolk coast. This would see the Midlands/Wales at risk once again.

So taking all the snow events into consideration the Midlands/Wales/N England are mainly at risk for next week.

P.S who ever said they have seen 30cm of snow this morning is having a laugh!

[swfc]

Wow,while ive just risen from my pit and we have 100 mm outside in sheffield.radar says nearly over but it is the heaviest single snow this year,back to the models and still looking very wintry this week with the midlands and wales in the firing line later.

[cuckoo]

Great 00z with lot's of snow around next week. Over a foot of snow here for me at the moment and still like a blizzard outside on the staffs Cheshire border.

the Met Office defines a blizzard as "moderate or heavy snow" combined with a mean wind speed of 30 mph (48 km/h) and visibility below 650 feet (200 m).

You've must have quite a bit more wind over your side of the Pennines and alot more snow!

[Eugene]

Yes looking very good for the midlands and north especially for the coming week, i see nothing mild for the midlands until maybe friday and then only transient, looks like Feb will end on a cold note, what a great winter this has been, lovely wintry scene outside right now, whoever said the snow potential was poor obviously is a poor forecaster

BBC latest forecasts headline is staying cold for the week ahead with more bouts of rain and snow

The models arent showing it milder for the midlands on wednesday GFS 00Z shows 2C/3C for the midlands and this is the ensemble mean for midnight thursday looks cold to me midlands northwards.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rt850m4.gif

The OP is one of the mildest runs for later in the week too.

Edited February 21, 2010 by Eugene

[kev238]

As far as I can see, people North of Birmingham should feel quite confident of getting a fair whack of snow. Still uncertainyl about tomorrows snowfall. The gfs pushes precipiation further North than the NAE- will be interesting to see what happens with the next set of runs.

Beyond that, great uncertainty about the track if lows; and because of that it is near impossible to forecast accurately what is going to happen.

[kold weather]

Yep even now the track of Monday's system still not really agreed, however the GFS 0z run is the northerly most run whilst the NAE appears to have broad agreement from most of the other

models so I'd side with that option.

Tuesday and Wednesday looks good for the Midlands before any threat probably moves northwards unless the models ar being over zealous with this one, could well get some big falls up in Northern England and S.Scotland as well given the pattern will become quite static..unless the ECM is correct!

EDIT---06z now also agrees with the NAE.

Edited February 21, 2010 by kold weather