3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 10

[mitre10]

Still snowing lightly in Epping although all earlier small accumulations on grass and roofs has now gone.

[MKN]

I think the key thing tomorrow is the timing

Today may have a slight bearing on events in that less mild air has been mixed in, however tomorrow the precip hitting after dark will be key

Current modelling suggests places just to the north of the M4 could hit the jackpot, with the initial push of precipitation co-inciding with lower temps and dews courtesy of the sun going down!

SK

Cant see anywhere south of the pennines hitting the jackpot tommorow. Precip doesnt look overly intense and its due to turn to rain as it pushes through melting any accumulation.

[SnowAngel]

Delighted to see snow instead of the forecasted rain but not sure what all the fuss in the media was about...it has been snowing all morning but has only left a light covering that is already melting...so parts of the UK have more snow, er....it is still winter last time I looked

[lizzieloo202]

Well here anyway

[ickledoozer]

Well here anyway

I wasn't even expecting this, it was raining when I went to bed last night!!! I think it is stopping here now too.

It would be nice to have some sunshine to finish the day off, I hope my snowdrops are OK.

[lizzieloo202]

I wasn't even expecting this, it was raining when I went to bed last night!!! I think it is stopping here now too.

It would be nice to have some sunshine to finish the day off, I hope my snowdrops are OK.

They'll be fine

[Matt12]

It's worth noting that it's not the kind of snow that will be around for long though (the 2 inches we had about 2 or 3 hours ago has now completely vanished). It either will tend to turn to rain after just a few hours IMO, or become slushy and melt.

Still, it was nice while it lasted. XD.

Matt.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I must admit to a preference for cold showery convective setups over the current pattern, of the sort that we saw a lot of from 17 December to 9 January, and not just because I happen to be a convective storm lover. Snowfalls from those patterns tend to be less marginal, and you usually get a fair amount of sunshine, so if it isn't snowy, chances are it's sunny rather than dull cold and damp. As 5th January demonstrated that pattern doesn't rule out the odd frontal event either, including fronts moving down from the N and failed attacks from the SW.

When we have an ongoing frontal battleground between the Atlantic and colder Arctic or continental air, marginality is much more of an issue and if it isn't snowy it tends to end up dull cold and damp. Plus the snowfall is limited to the poleward flank of the front.

I think the higher global temperatures might be taking the edge off the current setup- maybe similar synoptics in the 1960s/70s/80s could have produced more widespread and lasting snowfalls- but even then you get the problem that when pulses of milder air come in, the snow thaws and then refreezes leading to ice.

[weatherornot]

still snowing heavily in luton, but not adding much to the accumulation earlier, as temps are higher now. drifts of well over 1ft on the top of nearby hill at 600 ft above sea level.

I know Luton Airport is a few hundred feet above sea level , is much of Luton the same

Any marginal event Luton usually gets a fair amount

[SnowAngel]

It has snowed all day here on my area of the Chilterns but really puny accumulation melting to nothing, snow is pepping up again now which is another surprise as it had faded to nothing.

[Snowangel-MK]

It finally stopped snowing here just after lunch, not much accumulation to show for 10 hours of snowfall though, probably 3-4cm max. Surprisingly it hasn't melted and disappeared this afternoon, I would have expected it to by now especially given how slushy it was in the first place, but then it has stayed overcast.

Snowman or TEITS if you are around later can you please give us an update on what to expect for the rest of the week as it stands at the moment Thanks !

[saint]

Suprise snowfall today.

It started settling about half an hour after it had changed from rain, at some points this morning it was almost blizzard like with heavy snow and it was quite breezy.

Suprised it settled so quickly and well after some quite heavy rain around 1am and it changing from rain to snow.....Melted mostly now, but still left on grass.

Shout out to BBC London who this morning in there bulletin forecasts had the snow line around the Watford area and that seems quite good, much better than the national BBC forecast who placed the snow line near Milton Keyens!

Maybe the chance of something tomorrow? Only time will tell.

Oh and I did say last night don't trust the national BBC forecasts! Last night they said rain for most of the region, look whats happened!

Edited February 22, 2010 by saint

[Archie_Lewis]

Suprise snowfall today.

It started settling about half an hour after it had changed from rain, at some points this morning it was almost blizzard like with heavy snow and it was quite breezy.

Suprised it settled so quickly and well after some quite heavy rain around 1am and it changing from rain to snow.....Melted mostly now, but still left on grass.

Shout out to BBC London who this morning in there bulletin forecasts had the snow line around the Watford area and that seems quite good, much better than the national BBC forecast who placed the snow line near Milton Keyens!

Maybe the chance of something tomorrow? Only time will tell.

Oh and I did say last night don't trust the national BBC forecasts! Last night they said rain for most of the region, look whats happened!

Absolutely 'Saint'

This morning was quite incredible, you're right, it was blizzard like, the snow was falling thick and fast. I was very impressed it has to be said.

I have always thought that the beeb national forecasts are very poor with their graphics in whichever season.

Whether it be too much ppn, not enough ppn, too much sunny graphics, not enough sunny graphics. etc

Today just goes to prove that, last night national forecast had Rain graphics all over our region, south of Bedford! Look what happened:

A WHITE out on the way to work this morning.

[ITSY]

5cms where the snow hasn't melted/been rained on/walked on/driven on - basically in very few spots.

still, a pleasent surprise nontheless.

It snowed heavily to very heavily all morning from about 8am till 11.30 - with further snow showers all afternoon.

nice to watch, at least.

[Ben_Cambs]

Snowed here from about 6am till 1pm, but never any heavy PPN at all. In the end about 2 and a half inches fell.

My thoughts for tomorrow and this week:

Tomorrow will start off dry and any remaining snow will thaw after a freeze overnight. Cloud will increase into the afternoon and as another LP pushes up from the South. This will bring rain preceded by snow into this region, the further north you are the longer it will remain snow until the milder air passes through. Temporary accumilations possible, especially in the North of the Region.

Mid week there will be a temporary milder incursion, any PPN will be of rain, but IMO it looks like colder air will filter back down south towards the end of the week and the snow risk will increase again

I would like to add Im not trusting NAE anymore after today! The rain/snow line was much further south than progged!

Edited February 22, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Hammer]

I would like to add Im not trusting NAE anymore after today! The rain/snow line was much further south than progged!

A little harsh Snowman maybe. No model could be 100% accurate with a snow line, so many factors can come in to play when marginal. I thought the NAE was reasonably successful re this. Perhaps 25 miles further south than expected. Timing was important today.

[shotski]

I like this chart alot

If your looking for mild and this comes along you could be looking to April

[echobase]

Suprise snowfall today.

It started settling about half an hour after it had changed from rain, at some points this morning it was almost blizzard like with heavy snow and it was quite breezy.

Suprised it settled so quickly and well after some quite heavy rain around 1am and it changing from rain to snow.....Melted mostly now, but still left on grass.

Shout out to BBC London who this morning in there bulletin forecasts had the snow line around the Watford area and that seems quite good, much better than the national BBC forecast who placed the snow line near Milton Keyens!

Maybe the chance of something tomorrow? Only time will tell.

Oh and I did say last night don't trust the national BBC forecasts! Last night they said rain for most of the region, look whats happened!

Did someone say, on another thread that they had had the mother of all snow coverings? Lol, back in the choppa...

[Ben_Cambs]

I like this chart alot

If your looking for mild and this comes along you could be looking to April

Yes encouraging signs especially from ECM tonight. Maybe this MMW (Stratospheric warming that build's heights over Greenland etc) will give us some further colder weather....

[Let_it_snow]

Looking at the radar it looks like some precip is heading towards Norfolk later today, anyone think it will be Snow or rain? Met office warn of snow, I am not so sure.

Edited February 23, 2010 by Let_it_snow

[SnowAngel]

It is trying to snow here, totally against the forecasts. I suspect the rain will win but nice to see some more white flakes.....

[jennyjane]

Just went to tescos, all the ducks which live at tescos were sitting at the front door some asleep when we got there about an hour ago, when we came out they demanded cake, which they got.

Any rural farmers tales about duck behaviour and cold weather, does anyone know?

[Hammer]

Snowing here in East Herts. Temp about 2c dew points -1c, so not sure how long it will last, but good to see.

[chilly milly]

Has been snowing here too Hammer, but turned a bit sleety now.

[jimben]

Snow just started temp of 2.1c and dewpoint of -1.5c stiff easterly breeze