Model Chat And Moods

[Thundery wintry showers]

If anything remotely approaching the ENE'ly on the GFS 06Z comes off, then I'll rather fancy most of Southern England's chances of keeping a snow cover for a fair while...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z does it again puts the high over the UK, while UKMO is different, wonder what ecmwf suggests on 12Z

[Snowangel-MK]

Our media has always made out that the vast majority of people hate snow, and the BBC national forecasts (with the exception of Countryfile) are no longer the escape hatch from this that they used to be, so the Louise Lear comment does not surprise me.

I agree with you TWS although I don't think the media are totally to blame for making the majority hate snow, I think it's the fact our infastructure can't cope with extreme snow events that is the main problem. The media just add fuel the fire by hyping up all the problems that occur like schools closed, trains cancelled, cars abandoned etc., and this makes people focus on the negative side of snowy weather.

Anything a little out of the ordinary is viewed by most people as BAD weather, because that's what the forecast tell us no matter if it is too hot, cold, too wet or too much snow.

IMO there is no such thing as bad weather, (apart from rain if I'm caught out in it without a brolly) as long as you are wearing the right clothes, there are only different kinds of good weather, more extreme = more interesting !

Even though our preferences may differ the weather has and probably always will be a good neutral topic of conversation that can be discussed without causing as much offence as religion or politics can.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think you may have misinterpreted my point slightly (which is very easy to do in written communication!). I don't think the media makes people think a certain way- rather it acts as if everyone thinks a certain way when in reality public opinion is far more diverse. After a long snowy winter, the people who hate snow probably are a majority, and the infrastructure problems are probably the main reason, but I still see a lot of people (including many non-weather enthusiasts) commenting on how great this winter has been.

The media does have a long-standing tendency to hype up negatives to make a good-selling sensationalist story, but I don't think that fully accounts for, for example, the trend away from the news outlets showing clips of people sledging and having fun in the snow, the replacement of "will it be a white Christmas" with "fingers crossed for a mild return on Christmas Day", or the BBC TV national forecasts following the long-standing ITV stance of teaching us (via repeated value judgements) that we should all want mild moist winters and warm settled thunder-free summers. I feel that we're being encouraged to see the weather from the business/economy/health perspective and discouraged from, well, being weather enthusiasts.

The GFS and ECMWF both support the possibility of another significant snow event for eastern and southern areas (yes I would like to be able to get that sledge out again). Probably just two or three days at most before the high topples south, but once that happens we should all see plenty of sunshine under the high which will be very welcome for most of us I would've thought.

[Snowangel-MK]

The media does have a long-standing tendency to hype up negatives to make a good-selling sensationalist story, but I don't think that fully accounts for, for example, the trend away from the news outlets showing clips of people sledging and having fun in the snow, the replacement of "will it be a white Christmas" with "fingers crossed for a mild return on Christmas Day", or the BBC TV national forecasts following the long-standing ITV stance of teaching us (via repeated value judgements) that we should all want mild moist winters and warm settled thunder-free summers. I feel that we're being encouraged to see the weather from the business/economy/health perspective and discouraged from, well, being weather enthusiasts.

Yes, I see your point, and as you say a good sensationalist story makes the news and sells newspapers and after all that is what the journalists are there to do. Perhaps the fact we are being encouraged to see the weather from this perspective is more about political issues and things like global warming.

It would be great to see the weather forecast presented by someone who is a real weather enthusiast and to be given a better explanation for what is happening or being forecast to happen than we do now, I'm sure it would make people more interested in the weather even if they were still not happy about it. The Countryfile forecast is the only one I have ever seen that comes anywhere near this.

[Thundery wintry showers]

That's one of the things I (and some others, including a recent piece by Philip Eden) often lament about- in the 1990s most BBC national weekday forecasts were similar to today's Countryfile ones (and they heavily contributed to the development of my interest in the weather, bearing out the point re. making people more interested) but they have moved towards ITV's approach recently on the basis of audience research findings. There is usually a strong inverse correlation between use of value judgements and amount of background info in weather presentations, suggesting that the former is also part of the overall dumbing down process. All in all, it helps perpetuate less understanding as well as less interest.

Regarding the GFS 12Z, I still see a good two-day window for widespread snowfalls out of that, and maybe three days on the ECM. 18Z looks like it continues the theme.

[Rollo]

Just to contribute to TWS saying about the dumbing down of TV forecasts on the BEEB,does it not have a responsibility to cater to small groups like ourselves and is not the likes of BBC3 or 4 a good venue for say a 10 to 15 minute slot every evening featuring the many facets of the weather-if only they would listen.

[La Bise]

Contact them, it might be something that could of interest to them. Met forums are quite popular so there is a market for it.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

OOZ's dont look good, only the ukmo, they have a mid feb look to them, snow just for SE then high pressure too close

[Guest]

I agree with you TWS although I don't think the media are totally to blame for making the majority hate snow, I think it's the fact our infastructure can't cope with extreme snow events that is the main problem. The media just add fuel the fire by hyping up all the problems that occur like schools closed, trains cancelled, cars abandoned etc., and this makes people focus on the negative side of snowy weather.

I think our infrastructure can cope with snow; it's the people who don't cope with it! Perhaps if people had a little more education about the weather and how transport infrastructure works then we wouldn't have such problems. For example, on Thursday and Friday here a lot of the problem with the roads "not coping" was that people tried to travel when they should have stayed at home for a couple of hours on Thursday and let the snowploughs do their job. If people had engaged their brains on Thursday afternoon when the snow was at its worst and realised that the weather was too bad to travel then there would have been no travel problems. The roads would have been quickly cleared by the snowploughs, no abandoned cars clogging the place up, etc. etc.

I honestly think there should be a part of the driving test allocated to education about the weather, what to check before you travel, what to do if you encounter bad weather etc. etc. People should understand that a couple of hours lost time is better than hour after hour after hour of gridlock caused by abandoned cars. It wasn't as if there weren't enough warnings that snow was coming.

In a lot of areas of Scotland a little more snow will cause a lot more problems as we're still struggling after the last load. It does look as if this could happen, the 00z GFS ensembles show pretty good agreement with cooler/cold weather until about the 5th/6th March, the overnight ECM plunges much of the UK back to winter too. So there is potential for more snow events. I just hope people have taken heed from this snow; but I won't hold my breath the next time it happens.

[andy_leics22]

I'll take this on my birthday lol

[Iceni]

The media does have a long-standing tendency to hype up negatives to make a good-selling sensationalist story, but I don't think that fully accounts for, for example, the trend away from the news outlets showing clips of people sledging and having fun in the snow, the replacement of "will it be a white Christmas" with "fingers crossed for a mild return on Christmas Day", or the BBC TV national forecasts following the long-standing ITV stance of teaching us (via repeated value judgements) that we should all want mild moist winters and warm settled thunder-free summers. I feel that we're being encouraged to see the weather from the business/economy/health perspective and discouraged from, well, being weather enthusiasts.

I agree with you, but I'd add that the media encourages an urban perspective… would you believe that even 20 years ago farmers left their livestock outside all winter? Now they have to be inside, not to keep warm and dry, but because a herd of cattle makes the ground a quagmire with their hooves and ruins pasture — when we used to have frosts, the ground was iron hard and this didn't happen.

Mild winters are a nightmare in the countryside, farmers can't get out on the land to do all the winter jobs like hedge maintenance, outbuildings for livestock expensive to maintain, if animals are cooped up together they pass on disease more easily so more vet fees, antibiotics etc etc. Dreadful.

Of course when the £ falls through the floor and our imported food goes through the roof (as it is) the media might change their tune.

Edited February 28, 2010 by Iceni

[kold weather]

I think I've found what some of the snow lovers on this forum would be like if they actually became forecasters, trust the Americans is all I'll say:

Can't say I'm that pleased about the GFS tonight, seems like a classic cloudy flow once your past Thursday/Friday morning on the last few runs, need to get the high further east if thats to be a sunny frosty set-up that I'm sure most want!

[Thundery wintry showers]

LOL at that forecast- I think I'd find it a bit OTT personally!

If I was a TV forecaster I would want to issue forecasts of this kind:

Exactly the sort of style of forecast that helped develop my understanding of, and interest in, meteorology in the 1990s.

As for the GFS, I don't fancy a cloudy anticyclone either, but I think on the 12Z the dull weather was out in FI with several days of sunny days and frosty nights. Ideally though I would like a good NE'ly with three days of sunshine and snow showers and maxima of 2C over East Anglia giving ample opportunity to go sledging, followed by a few days to a week of sunny days, frosty nights, and daytime temperatures recovering to near or above average values. However the models have backed away from this easterly/north-easterly idea and I don't have much confidence in the idea of them reinstating it.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I agree with you, but I'd add that the media encourages an urban perspective…

...

I never thought of it that way, but you may well be right, especially as I consider the Countryfile forecasts to be a rare exception to the present trends, and that program is mainly aimed at those living in the countryside.

As for this coming week, it's looking mostly dry and sunny with daytime temps recovering close to normal and night frosts, and I will settle for that.

[cuckoo]

The really cold upper air dropping into Central Europe again.

I have noticed this happen on numerous occasions this winter and i imagine places such as Germany and Poland have had quite a severe winter, even by their more exacting standards.

Does anybody know of a good website for finding out meteorlogical data about these areas. I would be interested to see how the winter they have had this year compares historically to their previous severe winters and how it measures up against their "average" winters.

[MP-R]

Does anybody know of a good website for finding out meteorlogical data about these areas. I would be interested to see how the winter they have had this year compares historically to their previous severe winters and how it measures up against their "average" winters.

I can't find one that states their average winter stats except the BBC website but this one is good for showing the daily records, February 2010 should be up soon:

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Weather/Wroclaw_Ii/EPWR.htm

[karyo]

It would have been great to have a seen a few more snow showers this weekend, but high pressure domination and some quiet settled weather is still extremely welcome and as long as it keeps wind and rain at bay from the atlantic then the suggestion pattern is very fine by me

If it was early February, I would agree with you. However, I find high pressure in spring and summer rather boring. Time for me to focus on aspects of life that I neglected all winter!

Yes, it is time for shopping, socialising and having a lie in on Saturday morning rather than jumping out of bed at 8am to check the models! lol

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

If it was early February, I would agree with you. However, I find high pressure in spring and summer rather boring. Time for me to focus on aspects of life that I neglected all winter!

Yes, it is time for shopping, socialising and having a lie in on Saturday morning rather than jumping out of bed at 8am to check the models! lol

I do the shopping therapy etc any time of year regardless of what the models show!

I'm very satisfied indeed with the winter - my attitude is slightly different from usual this year in that we are not sitting here waiting for the first cold spell and snow of the winter Spring.

Also I truly hated and endured the November pattern last year, and the last couple of weeks (although at least on the cold side) were threatening to go the same way- or worse last weekend. Fortunately that didn't happen. Therefore I am especially welcoming now of the peaceful patterns that the models are suggesting. Even got out in the sunshine and cleared some of the garden yesterday

Edited March 3, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[glosteroldboy]

Yes it looks to be a good call by TEITS. Looking at the GFS 06z chart at t72 and this to me

sums up why model watching is so addictive, just three days ago the model was showing

a bitterly cold snowy easterly yet now there is no trace of this in fact the GFS is showing

7c for Saturday as opposed to -1c and snow just a few days ago.

Even though we missed out on what could have been a severe winter, in terms of model

watching it will take a hell of a lot of beating. From mid December till present has been a

great ride can it be repeated next winter I wonder.

Addictive and/or annoying? I've only got into this a couple of months back though I sometimes I wonder if it's better just to stick to watching the BBC forecasts for the next few days where things are reliable as you can't miss what you never had!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Funnily enough there does seem to have been a 1st March Switch Flick this year- not the temperature flick most hope for, but a sunshine/dryness one, the high pressure came over just in time for the change of month and (by the meteorological definition) season.

The worst thing about the 1st March Switch Flick is the delusional concept of "spring" that crops up around the forum- I am already seeing frequent comments about how we can't get any more snow because it's Spring for example- these are areas where entrenchment in personal preferences results in misconceptions. Whether people like it or not, until 1997 widespread snow was not unusual in May, let alone March or April, and the terms "snow" and "spring" are only mutually exclusive in climates that experience much milder winters than ours. Perhaps many of us should live in Scandinavia during the winter and then move to the Costa Del Sol on the 1st March each year.

High pressure always has that tradeoff between lack of interest for convection enthusiasts and high potential for weather that is conducive to outdoor activities. I do have a tendency to get bored of high pressure after a while, but the duration of that "while" varies depending on how cloudy the high is (the cloudier, the shorter the duration) and whether or not there are any interruptions (the odd thundery, wintry and/or showery interruption would significantly increase the duration). For now I consider the high pressure quite welcome.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I consider the high pressure welcome too.

But just how many times do you have to keep repeating the same mantra the same time very year in terms of all this stuff about the 'flick' and people switching from wanting winter weather to warmer weather after March 1? Again I can agree with the fundamentals of what you are saying - but do you have to keep repeating it so many times, time after time, year after year??

I've lost count the number of times you have made this same post (in as many words) in the last week alone!

Much the same, I'm afraid, as you repeat the same mantra in terms of telling a few of us what we allegedly think and how we should post and respond on some of the climate threads...

[Thundery wintry showers]

Pot, kettle and black on two counts:

1: if there is an onus on me to stop repeating the same mantra about the switch flick, why is there no onus on others to stop repeating the same mantra about "now that it's spring, it can't snow any more and anything colder than average would be cloudy and wet, if you think it can still snow you haven't moved on, roll on Spring"- and often many of the same people every year?

2: if there is an onus on me to stop telling a few of you what you allegedly think, why is there no onus on said individuals to stop spouting a load of nonsense about what mainstream climate scientists allegedly say, do and think (when the vast majority of them say, do and think rather differently), as a means of dismissing them and those who agree with them via the strawman method?

I can easily get misinterpreted as getting my back up about people not wanting any more snow after March 1st, or people thinking AGW is overestimated, but neither of those particularly bother me- they are perfectly valid views- it is the seeing the same associated misconceptions trotted out time and again by the same people that grates after a while.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I consider the high pressure welcome too.

But just how many times do you have to keep repeating the same mantra the same time very year in terms of all this stuff about the 'flick' and people switching from wanting winter weather to warmer weather after March 1? Again I can agree with the fundamentals of what you are saying - but do you have to keep repeating it so many times, time after time, year after year??

I've lost count the number of times you have made this same post (in as many words) in the last week alone!

Much the same, I'm afraid, as you repeat the same mantra in terms of telling a few of us what we allegedly think and how we should post and respond on some of the climate threads...

Lol, it has worked though in the sense that there are comparatively few of those posts around - though whether there were many before I arrived on the scene is impossible for me to judge! I can understand the desire for warmer weather though of course this does generally follow on from the sun getting stronger, but the 'flick switch' idea is certainly not something expected by that many. Of course the same can be said about the 1st December/November, when people expect things to flip into cold and wintry.

[snowray]

Addictive and/or annoying? I've only got into this a couple of months back though I sometimes I wonder if it's better just to stick to watching the BBC forecasts for the next few days where things are reliable as you can't miss what you never had!

You will probably be doing yourself a favour in the long run if you stick to the BBC, I'm addicted in the Winter months, I know that, and currently suffering from big time model fatigue. It's like a game of poker, can we outwit the models, lets just say that it's just as well we are not playing for money.

And as we have seen the last 2 or 3 days, what is often the case is that no matter how many charts, know how, sea gulls, sea weed, or mystic Megfs and even, perish the thought, Robert's put together is going to be of any use past 2 or 3 days apart from showing up rather vague trends. And of course we are a very small Island in the grand scheme of things, so as a friend once said to me "its only an inch on the map", can make huge differences to us. Like 2 days ago I was worried about picking up my parents at Stansted this Sunday because of the snow, today its the airport in N Italy they will be departing from thats going to be effected by heavy snow, my mum knows more than me, she said oh don't worry, theres still time for it to all change.

So my advice.......stick with the dumbed down version of the BBC.

Regards

Snowray

Edited March 4, 2010 by snowray