Model Output Discussion

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think the kind of easterly some are complaining about the absence of has always been a pretty rare event. Most of the easterly incursions of the winter of 1962/63 did not have exceptionally cold upper air, and were usually sourced from the Arctic rather than the continent, rather like this winter. 1978/79 only had a couple of brief ones- 31st Dec 1978/1st Jan 1979, and 14th/15th February 1979.

The easterly in January 1987 was probably the coldest of the entire 20th century and the one in February 1991 wasn't far behind. They were exceptional events, on a par with January 1984 for "cold zonality" or a "7 February 1969" as far as northerlies go.

[Duane S.]

Does it matter when we've just had such a cold winter?

Karyo

I agree, it's pretty incidental. A couple of potent Easterlies in the south when the models were predicting them really would have put the icing on the winter 09/10 cake but it's looking like we won't be getting one of note this winter. That said, I think we are looking at mediocre one come the end of this week, for the Southern half at least. But - other than, potentially, some beefy snow showers for a day or two, not too much of note (BTW, I'd bank that right now if it were offered). Still plenty of time for upgrades though.

Edited March 2, 2010 by s4lancia

[snowray]

Can't realy convince myself that the GFS could possibly be that far out, it has consistantly stuck to its guns now as have UKMO and ECM. Tomorrows runs have got to go one way or the other, more likely then not we will indeed see small shifts now until, as if by magic, they will meet in the middle by tomorrow evening around this time.

[ribster]

I think the kind of easterly some are complaining about the absence of has always been a pretty rare event. Most of the easterly incursions of the winter of 1962/63 did not have exceptionally cold upper air, and were usually sourced from the Arctic rather than the continent, rather like this winter. 1978/79 only had a couple of brief ones- 31st Dec 1978/1st Jan 1979, and 14th/15th February 1979.

The easterly in January 1987 was probably the coldest of the entire 20th century and the one in February 1991 wasn't far behind. They were exceptional events, on a par with January 1984 for "cold zonality" or a "7 February 1969" as far as northerlies go.

What a sensible post, I was going to respond but you have done a far better job, I think some really need to get a sense of perspective.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's probably fair to say that the downgrades of those potent-looking easterlies for the south (a near miss in late January, and the modified one we had around 10 February that could have been so much more significant) is probably the main reason why Scotland ended up much colder relative to average than southern England. Scotland and parts of northern England "hit the jackpot" with many synoptic events this winter, whereas southern England did not. While a repeat of Jan '87 or Feb '91 is asking a lot, most of the very cold winters have at least one or two events like this:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00119630112.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00219630112.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00119850114.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00219850114.gif

...But then again not many cold winters have anywhere near the amount of favourable synoptics for snow that Scotland and N England have had. It's very much the nature of cold snowy winters- unless you have a 1978/79 with pretty much every possible snow setup imaginable, some areas are going to get rather more snow than others.

[TEITS]

Can't realy convince myself that the GFS could possibly be that far out, it has consistantly stuck to its guns now as have UKMO and ECM.

Yes im going with the GFS on this one as i've been saying all day. Even though the NAE differs to the GFS I have recently seen the GFS outperform the NAE. We may mock the GFS at times but I find the model extremely reliable between 0 to +72.

The pattern i've noticed this winter is the GFS has been the first to suggest E,lys although these have been extreme E,lys when outside +144. The UKMO/ECM begin to trend like the GFS but the E,lys are less extreme that tne GFS. What then happens is the GFS is the first to pick up on downgrading the E,lys but the UKMO/ECM remain consistent. Finally the ECM/UKMO very slowly start to back towards the GFS.

So at the moment I would say the likely outcome is less cold uppers than the ECM/UKMO suggest but probably slightly colder then the GFS is predicting. I would say E Anglia has upper temps around -8C with Kent around -10C. The SW will probably be slightly further E than the ECM/UKMO suggest but slightly further W than the GFS is suggesting.

[Eugene]

Does it matter when we've just had such a cold winter?

lol spot on karyo still can't believe the moaning after one of the best winters of my lifetime and i`m even not in the north, if this winter is what near misses produces then i can't wait for the big one to occur when they hit us dead on

No sign of proper spring(i don't call faux spring with cold dewpoints spring) with chilly continental air and then atlantic undercutting HP to our northwest like brickfielder thought.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Oh dear .. The Euro's look to have come very close to joining the GFS this Morning. The UKMO also has the front on Friday just skirting the East coast now . If it is right you have to be impressed with GFS's consistency when all the other models said it was wrong .

[snowfish]

Oh dear .. The Euro's look to have come very close to joining the GFS this Morning. The UKMO also has the front on Friday just skirting the East coast now . If it is right you have to be impressed with GFS's consistency when all the other models said it was wrong .

Yes - I was thinking that! darn GFS for leading us up the garden path and then saying " Sorry....wrong way.!" let's hope there are upgrades from now on not the opposite which is currently occuring not by just small measures but by huge chunk sizes....

[LomondSnowstorm]

Deja vu really. GFS beat the NAE as usual. It's a bit disappointing as it probably doesn't 'deserve' to continually beat up all the other models when this pattern comes up but next time the GFS refuses to budge on a shortwave position which is further south/east than on other models, you know which one to believe. The January 10th easterly did not involve a shortwave trigger, which is why it wasn't cold enough for snow either, so I don't think that is a great example http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120100111.gif

LS

[MP-R]

Not brilliant from any of the models this morning, especially not the GFS which spells disaster in terms of anything remotely exciting:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.png

This high is going to prove nothing more than a pain in the derrier.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/90_30.gif

And this doesn't even have any ppn touching the east coast so I suppose that would spell dry for all.

I think I'd rather the Atlantic kicked in sooner rather than later instead of this boring high.

[northampton john]

Not brilliant from any of the models this morning, especially not the GFS which spells disaster in terms of anything remotely exciting:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn781.png

This high is going to prove nothing more than a pain in the derrier.

http://www2.wetter3....6_UTC/90_30.gif

And this doesn't even have any ppn touching the east coast so I suppose that would spell dry for all.

I think I'd rather the Atlantic kicked in sooner rather than later instead of this boring high.

my company has just received a forecast for sleet / snow during this weekend , what forecast are you basing your comments of a dry spell for all.

It will remain dry today and tomorrow , then friday will be quite a stormy day before much colder air spreads across the uk during the weekend .

[karyo]

Not brilliant from any of the models this morning, especially not the GFS which spells disaster in terms of anything remotely exciting:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.png

This high is going to prove nothing more than a pain in the derrier.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/90_30.gif

And this doesn't even have any ppn touching the east coast so I suppose that would spell dry for all.

I think I'd rather the Atlantic kicked in sooner rather than later instead of this boring high.

I agree, March is very often a good month for wintry weather and this high is just wasting precious time! Of course, like I mentioned yesterday, most of us had plenty of snow this winter, but a bit more wouldn't hurt!

I think it is lookin unlikely that this high will move somewhere favourably for a cold shot. Instead, it will stick on us like a bad smell!

Karyo

[cooling climate]

What a sensible post, I was going to respond but you have done a far better job, I think some really need to get a sense of perspective.

Why does Shaun Wilmer need to get a sense of perspective what he says is quite true. Just because we have

had a cold winter does not make him wrong. We have seen a record breaking -AO through December into

January and another one in February, with such blocking to the north you could expect any programmed

easterly to succeed but every time it has been pushed southwards.

We in England and Wales and perhaps even Scotland (despite their severe winter) have not seen one

spell this winter with bitterly cold uppers (-15 or below) which despite being modeled a few times failed to

verify.The winters of 78/79, 85,86,87,91,96and 97 which produced some great easterlies had nothing like

the northern blocking we have seen this winter. The winter of 62/63 and 47 are the only ones I can see

that surpass this winter for blocking.

Although we have had a cold winter and far far better than anything we have seen for years it has not been

a severe winter for England and Wales due to a more persistant west based -NAO and the spoiler rouging

over Scandinavia, even the two main cold spells in December and January ended prematurely because of this.

Onto the models this morning and it looks to me as if the Euro's have edged towards the GFS with really no

sign of a easterly for the UK now. Despite having little confidence in the GFS models runs yesterday I did say

last night it could be fool hardy to completely dismiss the GFS model.

Edited March 3, 2010 by cooling climate

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Im very happy with the models this morning.

Looking dry for the next week or so and quite cold at night.

To late in the season for the kind of cold and snow im looking for so an extended period of HP will do nicely

[La Bise]

People wishing for the Atlantic to come back because there is nice fat high bringing us some sunshine ought to be hung and quartered*. Go out, enjoy the actual weather, switch off the computer, get a life!!

Excellent models outputs, a period of quiet weather, Atlantic dominance is on the cards by mid-month onwards and one suspects this time it will be real (of course the return of the swlies has been progred many times without delivering) rather than figment of the models "imagination".

* Not really eh, I'm joking, thank you...

[cuckoo]

Yes im going with the GFS on this one as i've been saying all day. Even though the NAE differs to the GFS I have recently seen the GFS outperform the NAE. We may mock the GFS at times but I find the model extremely reliable between 0 to +72.

The pattern i've noticed this winter is the GFS has been the first to suggest E,lys although these have been extreme E,lys when outside +144. The UKMO/ECM begin to trend like the GFS but the E,lys are less extreme that tne GFS. What then happens is the GFS is the first to pick up on downgrading the E,lys but the UKMO/ECM remain consistent. Finally the ECM/UKMO very slowly start to back towards the GFS.

So at the moment I would say the likely outcome is less cold uppers than the ECM/UKMO suggest but probably slightly colder then the GFS is predicting. I would say E Anglia has upper temps around -8C with Kent around -10C. The SW will probably be slightly further E than the ECM/UKMO suggest but slightly further W than the GFS is suggesting.

Looking like a great analysis here.

I have really enjoyed the model watching this winter, thanks to all the regulars for their expert analysis and comment in interpreting the charts.

Edited March 3, 2010 by cuckoo

[Backtrack]

I think the GFS really likes to out-do the 9am temperatures somewhat. Just looking around the stations on xc weather, none of the GFS predictions are correct, the worst been -1c at Altnaharra, it's -13c!

This HP isnt exactly a bad thing either, even if did manage to snow, it would be gone by 10am, March just isnt cold enough for snowcover to last down at sea level (Unless we get some really sustained cold) even then, the sun is much stronger than in January, so it wont last.

Edited March 3, 2010 by Backtrack

[SteveB]

I must admit I am looking forward to some Spring sunshine with out the ridiculous warmth we've been getting over the last few years.

Warm and sunny by day & frosts at night sounds just about perfect for early March.

I am happy with the out look shown this morning by the GFS/UKMO/ECM.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Why does Shaun Wilmer need to get a sense of perspective what he says is quite true. Just because we have

had a cold winter does not make him wrong. We have seen a record breaking -AO through December into

January and another one in February, with such blocking to the north you could expect any programmed

easterly to succeed but every time it has been pushed southwards.

We in England and Wales and perhaps even Scotland (despite their severe winter) have not seen one

spell this winter with bitterly cold uppers (-15 or below) which despite being modeled a few times failed to

verify.The winters of 78/79, 85,86,87,91,96and 97 which produced some great easterlies had nothing like

the northern blocking we have seen this winter. The winter of 62/63 and 47 are the only ones I can see

that surpass this winter for blocking.

Although we have had a cold winter and far far better than anything we have seen for years it has not been

a severe winter for England and Wales due to a more persistant west based -NAO and the spoiler rouging

over Scandinavia, even the two main cold spells in December and January ended prematurely because of this.

Onto the models this morning and it looks to me as if the Euro's have edged towards the GFS with really no

sign of a easterly for the UK now. Despite having little confidence in the GFS models runs yesterday I did say

last night it could be fool hardy to completely dismiss the GFS model.

Thankyou , i was not debating the fact the winter has been cold , apart from the january spell the main reason for the snow in england and wales during febuary is very simailar to last years 1st wk in febuary , the fact the jet was in africa rather than the uk, so we had stagnent cold air which produced very wet slushy marginal events in the main,

im impressed with the stats thats came out and glad scotland has hit the jack pot and agree its been a cold winter , but not exceptional by any means in my neck of the woods , dont care what the STATS say , our biggest fall was fall inches which was nice , but almost every year for the last 5 winters we'v had at least 3'' at sometime during the winter , so wintry yes , snowy , certainly not , unless you count having an inch of wet snow which took 12hrs of continueous snowfall to deliver exceptional.

Edited March 3, 2010 by shaun wilmer

[kent]

Thankyou , i was not debating the fact the winter has been cold , apart from the january spell the main reason for the snow in england and wales during febuary is very simailar to last years 1st wk in febuary , the fact the jet was in africa rather than the uk, so we had stagnent cold air which produced very wet slushy marginal events in the main,

im impressed with the stats thats came out and glad scotland has hit the jack pot and agree its been a cold winter , but not exceptional by any means in my neck of the woods , dont care what the STATS say , our biggest fall was fall inches which was nice , but almost every year for the last 5 winters we'v had at least 3'' at sometime during the winter ,

I totally agree, our biggest fall was one cm the same as last year. If its never cold enough to produce a nationwide event then its not a memorable winter in my book.

[Coast]

New model output discussion here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/61935-model-output-discussion/