Model Output Discussion

[MP-R]

Interesting outouts fromthe 0z this morning, would i be right in saying that there would be snow on the ECM12z t96 for the southeastern corner of the UK?

I think the ECM is the best out of them for those wanting snow (i.e. me :blink:). GFS looks rather dry and boring but ECM going for some possibly action with a 2-3 day easterly before the high starts sinking southwards to cover the majority of the UK by the end of the weekend:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

[Nick F]

Morning everyone

Interesting outouts fromthe 0z this morning, would i be right in saying that there would be snow on the ECM12z t96 for the southeastern corner of the UK?

Looking at the ECM and GFS precip charts there looks to be a spell of rain/sleet/snow spreading south on Friday across much of the UK away from the far west, as the low drops down the N Sea pulling fronts south. Doesn't look to be particularly heavy. Though long-way off though to be forecasting where and how much.

The following easterly looks a dry affair for most, with pressure high.

Looking at the medium range, looks like the ridge will remain just to the NW for a while yet. Hints the high may move far enough west to perhaps let in more of a northerly flow bringing in colder arctic air incursion perhaps. But an easterly looks the certainty for now, but not a snowy one.

[TEITS]

I certainly agree with Nick F.

Looking at the UKMO/ECM/Fax charts the front looks relatively weak with the chance of rain turning to snow. I feel W parts would escape largely dry with the main precip being further E albeit light. Beyond and I can't see mucb convection from the E,ly due to the HP.

Having said all of this the 06Z GFS is entirely different. This run doesn't have the LP moving S down the N Sea and instead tracks much further E before tracking SE. This results iin the HP being centred directly over the UK bringing slight frost and around average max temps.

Overall nothing exciting but I have to say the spells of sunshine outside are very welcomed by me. A period of dry, settled weather looks set until mid March IMO.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I have my doubts that most of East Anglia and the southeast would be dry if the UKMO/ECM came off- I could envisage quite a number of snow/hail showers from that setup, and similar synoptics on some earlier GFS runs showed a fair amount of precipitation. Elsewhere, though, it probably would be dry, just the odd isolated wintry shower possible over NE England.

The GFS is having none of it at all though, and its outputs can't be completely dismissed, it was right for the 10th February when placing HP further south than the UKMO/ECM neutralising many of the impacts of the NE'ly.

[cooling climate]

Lol great run to run continuity from the GFS model this morning.

This could well be a GFS 06z special which shows why it is the poorest of

the GFS runs when it comes to accuracy.

This run should be a huge mild outlier in the ensembles later.

[TEITS]

Lol great run to run continuity from the GFS model this morning.

This could well be a GFS 06z special which shows why it is the poorest of

the GFS runs when it comes to accuracy.

This run should be a huge mild outlier in the ensembles later.

The 06Z is a good example of how at times the models have struggled this winter contrary to what some say. The differences in the +144 charts compared to the 0Z are frankly laughable especially if you live in Spain or France.

Just checked the temps. Across SW France at +156 the temps predicted by the 06Z are 17C. According to the 0Z they would be 0C. A staggering difference of 17C between runs!!

[thevalley]

Looks as though on the charts that Easterly could last and develop into something very promising like Feb/Mar 2006 or 2005 when IMBY had laying snow for a 7 days. Winters last Hooray . BBC saying snow for high ground on Friday in the SE.

[TEITS]

I have my doubts that most of East Anglia and the southeast would be dry if the UKMO/ECM came off- I could envisage quite a number of snow/hail showers from that setup, and similar synoptics on some earlier GFS runs showed a fair amount of precipitation. Elsewhere, though, it probably would be dry, just the odd isolated wintry shower possible over NE England.

You could be right TWS.

My own view is if the ECM/UKMO verified members in Kent and along the S coast would be extremely frustrated to see a stream of snow showers along the channel into N France.

Having said of all of this im not convinced by the ECM/UKMO output anyway.

Looks as though on the charts that Easterly could last and develop into something very promising like Feb/Mar 2006 or 2005 when IMBY had laying snow for a 7 days. Winters last Hooray . BBC saying snow for high ground on Friday in the SE.

Saying the same for me but I have to ask what high ground in E Anglia.

Edited March 2, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[cooling climate]

The 06Z is a good example of how at times the models have struggled this winter contrary to what some say. The differences in the +144 charts compared to the 0Z are frankly laughable especially if you live in Spain or France.

Just checked the temps. Across SW France at +156 the temps predicted by the 06Z are 17C. According to the 0Z they would be 0C. A staggering difference of 17C between runs!!

I have been watching this and unless everything trends further north also assuming the

06z GFS run has blown a fuse then a bitterly cold and very wintry spell awaits France and

northern Spain.

[snowray]

Lol great run to run continuity from the GFS model this morning.

This could well be a GFS 06z special which shows why it is the poorest of

the GFS runs when it comes to accuracy.

This run should be a huge mild outlier in the ensembles later.

Yes, and it just so happens to be the 06z that decides to go off and do it's own thing this morning.

And, the differences compared to the other models, Fax, GFS 00z are not by any means insignifiant. Sunday showed snow/heavy snow/snow showers just clipping Southern Britain, and all the way South, across much of Europe as far as Northern Italy on 00z, all gone in one run. I'm starting to wonder if 06z is trying to compete with the WMC model.

[snowfish]

Yes, and it just so happens to be the 06z that decides to go off and do it's own thing this morning.

And, the differences compared to the other models, Fax, GFS 00z are not by any means insignifiant. Sunday showed snow/heavy snow/snow showers just clipping Southern Britain, and all the way South, across much of Europe as far as Northern Italy on 00z, all gone in one run. I'm starting to wonder if 06z is trying to compete with the WMC model.

Frankly the 06z is laughable.....the runs before it have had the high much further west - I hope this run is the exception to the rule - it's like the GFS is a sulky guest at the "Ta ta to Winter Party"...

I'm NOT playing charades you lot can if you want......Cheer up and get into the spirit of things GFS!

[Eugene]

Some very cold 850`s for the time of year showing on the runs and ensembles this morning for this weekend, i think 06Z we can forget about as its a complete outlier.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

[snowray]

Frankly the 06z is laughable.....the runs before it have had the high much further west - I hope this run is the exception to the rule - it's like the GFS is a sulky guest at the "Ta ta to Winter Party"...

I'm NOT playing charades you lot can if you want......Cheer up and get into the spirit of things GFS!

Well I have been going on about the 06z for some time now, since it regularly wants to throw in the wild card, and when it does this it's always wrong. But I did notice that some of the GFS ensemble members on the 18z and 00z were indeed going for this sort of elongated HP extending South from the UK down towards Italy. So probably an outlier, but none the less with some support maybe.

Edited March 2, 2010 by snowray

[Eugene]

Friday looks like a spell of rain pushing southwards so its not all sunshine and light and we could start to pick up more cloud in the south, east and central areas from tonight as winds back easterly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

Nogaps has been the one model very bullish about LP moving around the high from the north undercutting the high on friday so should be given credit if this is correct.

[snowray]

Friday looks like a spell of rain pushing southwards so its not all sunshine and light and we could start to pick up more cloud in the south, east and central areas from tonight as winds back easterly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

Nogaps has been the one model very bullish about LP moving around the high from the north undercutting the high on friday so should be given credit if this is correct.

Yes Nogaps had been the most bullish until this mornings 06z, its running with the GFS now though it would seem.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Friday looks like a spell of rain pushing southwards so its not all sunshine and light and we could start to pick up more cloud in the south, east and central areas from tonight as winds back easterly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

Nogaps has been the one model very bullish about LP moving around the high from the north undercutting the high on friday so should be given credit if this is correct.

Amazing how GFS really does not want to send the LP South across the uk and makes little of it. Until GFS shows this im going to be cautious .

[cooling climate]

The 06Z operational run has support from a fair few of its ensemble members so

hats off to the model if its right. I just can not see the UKMO, FAX and the ECM

being so wrong this morning though.

Snow lovers down in southern France and northern Spain would be more than a

little peeved though if the 06z run is the new trend.

[karyo]

The 06Z operational run has support from a fair few of its ensemble members so

hats off to the model if its right. I just can not see the UKMO, FAX and the ECM

being so wrong this morning though.

Snow lovers down in southern France and northern Spain would be more than a

little peeved though if the 06z run is the new trend.

Yes, quite a shift upwards from the ensembles http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

Not a hint of a northerly there, which I find disappointing.

Karyo

[cooling climate]

Yes, quite a shift upwards from the ensembles http://www.netweathe...ensviewer;sess=

Not a hint of a northerly there, which I find disappointing.

Karyo

Their is fairly strong support from the 500mb height anomaly maps and NOAA of substantial

blocking to our north out to the middle of the month so again I would not put much faith in

the 06z mid or longrange output.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

[Thundery wintry showers]

The 850hPa ensembles suggest almost no support at all for the easterly or north-easterly incursion over East Anglia and the southeast- a huge turnaround from the 00Z when most of the ensembles supported it. I have a feeling that the GFS might be onto something here- remember how that system coming in from the west was supposed to drift across Britain before heading SE pulling in a cold easterly? But only time will tell, we'll have to see if the Euro models stick to their guns this evening.

[Kentish Man]

The GFS ensembles seem quite bullish about the no easterly scenario. The European models see it differently ( ECM UKMO GME) with big differences at only t + 96. It's an interesting little skirmish developing but I tend to side with TEITS in that the Euro models are not totally convincing. No doubt we'll get some answers tonight.

[karyo]

Their is fairly strong support from the 500mb height anomaly maps and NOAA of substantial

blocking to our north out to the middle of the month so again I would not put much faith in

the 06z mid or longrange output.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

That's good to see!

However, I don't like the METO further update as it mentiones a southwesterly regime for the second week!

Maybe I should forget about the northerly...

Karyo

[kold weather]

Any evolution it seems today would favour the HP eventually getting sent packing to the SE, much like the 06z GFS...the problem with the 06z GFS os its IMO almost a week too fast and is very quick to shunt the whole lot SE. If there is one *major* flaw to the GFS that has been seen time and time again it is the model is always way too keen to get rid of blocking situations in favour of the Atlantic, I'm confident the same is true of the 06z run.

[Duane S.]

The 06z, in fact bar the earlier 00z, all the recent GFS runs, seems intent on sinking the block asap! I'm not overly surprised about it showing that given its nature, but what is amazing (but maybe not that surprising either) is the very firm GEFS ensemble support! I still think it is barking up the wrong tree dropping the HP cell so quickly down to the SE. Why it has got it so wrong (if indeed it has of course) is up for debate but while the Euros are not wavering from their stance, I'm with them.

[bluearmy]

the NAEFS fi show a scandi trough becoming main influence during latter part week 2. not too much spread on this scenario so i am not too surprised to see the meto 15 dayer talking about the cold possibly hanging on in the north and west. i would be inclined to expect a watered down version of what we went through second half of feb - further north. possibly a west based -NAO with us warm side of the trough could be the result which ties in with the second half march outlook from the meto this morning.

Edited March 2, 2010 by bluearmy