Model Output Discussion

[Altohumorous]

Youre missing the point, what people are saying is whats the use of cold weather without snow seeing as its what most on here want. Cold for colds sake without the benefits of snow is just as valid a reason to say if thats all we get then id rather have warmer temperatures.

I actually do like cold for cold sake, and though it's now coming into March that's still often a cold time of year and I enjoy bracing weather. Now if I want to do more outdoorsy things I do look forward to warmer weather, but I can enjoy both and that's one reason why spring is so interesting.

I think what alot of people like of course are more extremes because those are more interesting. When there's a real possibility of a cold spell being a very severe spell with snow then it's inevitable that people will be disappointed when that doesn't come off, even if it is March and following a very remarkable winter.

As somebody else said, there's been so few cold winters for so long (compared to what older folks recall) that many of us want to enjoy this one for as long as possible

[ANYWEATHER]

Well gfs says goodbye to any Easterly next week [even though 24hrs ago it was showing practically a nationwide snowfest with a blinding Easterly,]now its show milder Northwest winds in the circulation of High Pressure...But are we surprised,?? at times these models are about as good as a chocolate teapot!!

[Ben_Cambs]

Another poor run from GFS (If you want snow), HP dominates at the wrong time, Deep cold out in Europe while we are left with cool days and nights, centre of HP is just west of Ireland. UKMO though a much better picture (for snow), HP much further west than GFS.....

GFS has been acting strange this weekend!!!

Edit: Yet again we have a divide between GFS and UKMO, ECM might give us some answers later

Edited February 28, 2010 by Snowman0697

[londonsnow]

the 12z does indeed paint a quiet and coolish picture in the short term. after the weather mayhem of this week, i would welcome it

[kent]

Updated Meto outlook is not going for a snowy weekend.

[cooling climate]

Poor outputs so far today in regards to the easterly later in the week.

In fact if the trend from the models is correct then give it another day or two

and there will be no sign of the easterly at all let alone ice days and -10c

windchill with blizzard conditions.

If its not to be then so be it but I was hoping we would see a memorable winter

blast from the MMW, -AO,and -NAO than what we have seen this last month.

We could of course see upgrades as we go through the week regarding the

easterly but I am certainly not holding my breath.

[Duane S.]

Another poor run from GFS (If you want snow), HP dominates at the wrong time, Deep cold out in Europe while we are left with cool days and nights, centre of HP is just west of Ireland. UKMO though a much better picture (for snow), HP much further west than GFS.....

GFS has been acting strange this weekend!!!

GFS is plain wrong as was the 06z. The evolution it is showing is not backed up. I won't discount a predominately dry settled period for most of the UK but not in the way that the GFS is showing it will happen. It will revert back to a more favourable scenario, maybe today, maybe tomorrow but it will.

Edited February 28, 2010 by s4lancia

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

the 12z does indeed paint a quiet and coolish picture in the short term. after the weather mayhem of this week, i would welcome it

I would be quite happy like you for the same reasons.

If the 12z UKMO was to come about I would be very pleased with that as a bonus alternative on top of the settled cool GFS - looks good for snow showers for some of us

So very much glass being over half full whichever happens there I would say

[snowmadchrisuk]

GFS is plain wrong as was the 06z. The evolution it is showing is not backed up. I won't discount a predominately dry settled period for most of the UK by not in the way the GFS is showing it happen. It will revert back to a more favourable scenario, maybe today, maybe tomorrow but it will.

Nothing wrong with the UKMO at +144 amazing chart .

[Thundery wintry showers]

In other words because the GFS charts of yesterday and the Easterly accompanying it have all but gone the shape of the pear and the 06Z looking the same way cold but not that cold, to justify their disappointments of not getting their snow fix its ok then for some posters to say "Oh well it will at least remain cold for the foreseeable future". That is a pet hate of mine because there is nothing wrong with the advent of spring to want warmer and more settled weather. Our Summers are pretty short lived as it is. Why would anyone want to prolong the colder weather with the hardship it causes eg. heating costs amongst many others. Cant wait for spring now. I love snow,but only in the Winter months. It seems to me that others on here would be quite happy to see it snow in June. Im absolutely sure these people are in the minority.

There is nothing wrong with wanting warmer and more settled weather. There is also nothing wrong with people wanting a continuation of the cold, however, for the same reasons as prior to the 1st March. There are also those, including myself, who find appeal in both warm and cold weather types, and who should not be lumped together with those who look only for cold and snow.

What's wrong, and gets up my backside, is the dismissal of anyone who isn't averse to anything with "frost" or "snow" or "unsettled" in the description after the 1st March- the "hardship" argument is the classic example of this. Some of us enjoy the same weather patterns all year around, and those cold bright anticyclonic setups, and those "Arctic" bright showery setups with convection invigorated by the stronger sun, for example, retain a strong following.

Also, those who think spring is about warm settled weather and no more snow until the next season, and expect "spring" in that sense to arrive on the 1st March each year, are nearly always going to be disappointed, especially after a long snowy winter with the PFJ still well to the south. The "cold = dull and wet, warm = sunny and dry" is also a delusion. In essence there is a difference between merely having preferences, which is fair enough, and becoming so entrenched in them that it causes delusions.

As for the GFS, I wouldn't write it off at this stage (downgrades the easterly out of existence!) but it has been third best behind ECM and UKMO this season so I'll only think it warrants much support if the ECM shows some, as the UKMO is clearly having none of it.

[yamkin]

Nothing wrong with the UKMO at +144 amazing chart .

I agree. The 144h UKMO chart looks impressive. Compare this to the GFS 12Z 144h

It will be interesting to see what ECM 12Z shows later on.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looking in particular at the temperature projections, the GFS 12Z scenario would give rise to a number of bright days with temperatures not far off average for the time of year, and sharp night frosts.

I don't find the UKMO evolution particularly convincing, the continuation of the cold snowy easterly flow for southern Britain is dependent on a small low that runs down the North Sea at T+120 which may well not materialise. Apart from the inevitable term, "downgrades", I'm not sure exactly what to make of UKMO/GFS this evening. Maybe ECM will give some more hints.

[karyo]

No proper easterly on the 12z gfs and no northerly either!

However, a continuation of below average temperatures is looking likely1

Karyo

[Weather-history]

Nothing wrong with the UKMO at +144 amazing chart .

I suppose its a matter of opinion but it doesn't look that amazing to me. Not when you look at it through this way

Edited February 28, 2010 by Mr_Data

[snowmadchrisuk]

I suppose its a matter of opinion but it doesn't look that amazing to me. Not when you look at it through this way

What I like about the UKMO is that there is plenty of low pressure about to our South . This leaves plenty of room for upgrades with the chance of the high being undercut , If all the low pressure were to our North instead of South then the high would be more likely to sink.

Chris

[TEITS]

I see the downgrading trend has continued and this is most noticeable in the GEFS ensembles. Yesterday there was a cluster of -12Cs with the mean around -10C. Now the mean stands at -5C with no very cold members.

Supported by the GEM aswell.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-144.png

Personally cold, dry, frosty weather isn't what I want to see. If anything I would prefer mild and wet or showery type weather. I have seen plenty of frosts this winter and if the GFS is correct all this is going to do is increase my fuel bills even more without the excitement of snowfall!

[kold weather]

The 12z GFS isn't even that cold at all to be honest past the brief easterly attempt, its probably bang on the average of what you'd expect for early March, mins probably between 0-3C, with maxes generally between 7-9C...

Also the flow it suggests is NOT a cold frosty flow, like the 06z once you get past 144hrs its a Anticyclonic gloom evolution if I ever saw one, though obviously if the cloud were to break it'd be able to get quite cold due to cool 850hpa aloft.

If you want a frosty set-up for the UK, you need to NOT have a high centered too far west like on the 12z because otherwise its going to drag down quite considerable murk on its western side, just like saw time and time again in Jan 05 I believe...the 12z GFS is ok in that respect until say 132hrs then rapidly goes down the pan, you'd get mins that are cool but not quite cold enough for frost IMO.

Still at least it is dry, thats a big bonus IMO, dry and cool with maybe the odd local frost here and there past Friday but nothing too impressive at all.

Edited February 28, 2010 by kold weather

[Secret Society]

i stopped looking at GFS about 3 years ago.

dont know why people are still even consider it a model.

[Shunter]

i stopped looking at GFS about 3 years ago.

dont know why people are still even consider it a model.

Totally agree, GFS is renowned for illogical synoptical swings ( mostly at Bank Holidays and Weekends I might add ). See it move back in line on tomorrows 12z run when human input is restored.

Meanwhile ECM is still onside for a cold Easterly :-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

[Snowyowl9]

It`s safe to say the atlantic certainly isn`t coming in with charts like these.

http://wzkarten.de/pics/brack1.gif

http://wzkarten.de/pics/brack2.gif

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Nasty storm that was in Spain and France then.!!!!

[yamkin]

I see the downgrading trend has continued and this is most noticeable in the GEFS ensembles. Yesterday there was a cluster of -12Cs with the mean around -10C. Now the mean stands at -5C with no very cold members.

Supported by the GEM aswell.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-144.png

Personally cold, dry, frosty weather isn't what I want to see. If anything I would prefer mild and wet or showery type weather. I have seen plenty of frosts this winter and if the GFS is correct all this is going to do is increase my fuel bills even more without the excitement of snowfall!

But, ECM 12Z 144h looks good

[snowmadchrisuk]

It`s safe to say the atlantic certainly isn`t coming in with charts like these.

http://wzkarten.de/pics/brack1.gif

http://wzkarten.de/pics/brack2.gif

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Nasty storm that was in Spain and France then.!!!!

ECM not great but it is like UKMO at +144 . Key thing is it still brings the -10 850's in at least out to +168 which is as far as we can go on 850#s until later.

[Tim Bland]

The UKMO, ECM and metoffice are on board for a cold easterly by Friday the only model that isn't is the GFS. We only all follow the GFS because of the Data centre on here providing a comprehensive breakdown of all the output and interpreting it into precipitype / snow depths etc. I would expect the GFS to fall back in line tommorow.

[john mac]

Evening everyone

I dont think people should get too worried about downgrades until the UKMO & ECM are showing downgrades, as it stands the euro's are in a favour of a cold spell. The GFS is on its own and should not be trusted.

[ANYWEATHER]

But, ECM 12Z 144h looks good

Yep it does but if you consider what it looked like 24hrs ago the "Easterly" is a former shadow of its past! and thats nearly a week away!!