Model Output Discussion

[Thundery wintry showers]

Again the 1st March switch flick seems to have brought out the usual delusions in some people, "cold = dull and wet, warm = sunny and dry", and anyone looking for snow is "clinging onto winter". I fully expect to see any stonewall "sunshine and snow showers" setups in the coming weeks being labelled widely as "dull cold and drizzly and no good to anyone, move on it's spring now", plus stonewall warm dull drizzly setups being labelled as "warm settled lovely and Spring is in the air". This week will refute the first delusion out of hand, it will be cold but also sunny and dry nearly everywhere, following a week of dull wet weather which, it's easy to forget, has been relatively mild in the south, the mildest since early December.

However for better or worse this easterly has downgraded practically out of existence. The problem was that the models vastly overdid a low pressure system to the west, projecting it to head eastwards and then southwards instead of fizzling out against the high. I must admit I did think it was a dubious evolution but I was taken in by it at the time.

Looks increasingly like anticyclonicity dominating the earlier part of March, could be a dry first half to March. Unfortunately I suspect the high will become increasingly cloudy.

I think a lot depends on where the high ends up at the end of the week. Sunshine looks likely to feature highly until Friday, but if the high pulls a little way away to the west or south it could indeed end up dull as we head into the weekend and beyond. But if the high stays over Britain, it could remain pretty sunny. An alternative is that it drifts far west enough to allow a bright showery northerly in.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Yum! What type of confection? Should we stand outside with something to catch it?

Erm Chocolate Snowdrops I meant Convective Showers has i'm sure your well aware Nick . There are some showers currently building in the Irish Sea and GFS make out they make it inland but we will see.

Sunny days and Cold Nights are the only sure thing I can see from the models at the moment , but coasts will likely have more cloud towards the end of the week .

Edited March 1, 2010 by snowmadchrisuk

[karyo]

Yum! What type of confection? Should we stand outside with something to catch it?

Your post has just made me laugh loud and I am in the office! :-0

The model output is boring this morning with nothing particularly promising on offer.

I always look for cold in the models regardless of the time of year and I would love a proper northerly. March can often be very good for that and 2006, 2007 and 08 are just a few recent examples.

Karyo

[snowmadchrisuk]

I think a lot depends on where the high ends up at the end of the week. Sunshine looks likely to feature highly until Friday, but if the high pulls a little way away to the west or south it could indeed end up dull as we head into the weekend and beyond. But if the high stays over Britain, it could remain pretty sunny. An alternative is that it drifts far west enough to allow a bright showery northerly in.

I think as the week wears on and with an increasingly moist flow and light winds thick Fog could become a big problem in the Evening and Early Mornings.

[D KARLSON]

I think i only ever gave the easterly scenario a 50% chance of occuring ,but that does not mean it could not lead on to another cold solution further ahead.

the models are extremely fickle at present and will continue in the same vein as long as these unusual synoptics are present ,just about anything is possible after the winter weve had and cold outbreaks are quite likely through this Spring !!!

[Nick B]

Your post has just made me laugh loud and I am in the office! :-0

The model output is boring this morning with nothing particularly promising on offer.

I always look for cold in the models regardless of the time of year and I would love a proper northerly. March can often be very good for that and 2006, 2007 and 08 are just a few recent examples.

Karyo

Hmm, well you see I think usually my posts tend to be a bit boring and dry, so I couldn't help this one...

Anyway, agree with you about the models atm - nothing particularly inspiring (yes, there is the ECM 144hrs, however, given how in the current setups we've had the HPs and LPs shifting around by the odd few hundred miles to take them to the wrong side of marginal for us for anything even up to 24 hours away, this output is treated with a barrel load of grit by me).

To get any decent wintry weather deep snow that will last a reasonable length of time (5 days plus) I think we'll need to see upgrade after upgrade from this point on. Chances are now getting much slimmer. We can of course get the odd fun blast of Nrly/NErly full of heavy convective snow showers during the next couple of months but for more than this we do need a run of luck!

Edited March 1, 2010 by Nick B

[glosteroldboy]

Don't see how anyone can be disappointed about the weather for the next few days, after a frosty start it's a beautiful day, clear blue skies, just glorious and a welcome relief after last week! Is this the theme for most of the week?

[kold weather]

I think a lot depends on where the high ends up at the end of the week. Sunshine looks likely to feature highly until Friday, but if the high pulls a little way away to the west or south it could indeed end up dull as we head into the weekend and beyond. But if the high stays over Britain, it could remain pretty sunny. An alternative is that it drifts far west enough to allow a bright showery northerly in.

The 06z would lead to a pretty decent set-up I'd imagine, the high stays just far enough east for it to remain a sunny affair for most people and that means cold and frosty by night time but pretty pleasent by daytime, esp once the cold uppers run out of steam and some slightly milder air gets rotated into the high.

[Frosty.]

A much better GFS 06z with repeated attemps at a Northerly but the high is not really doing us any favours but a big improvement on the borefest gfs 00z run, as to which run if either is even close to the eventual reality is another matter entirely but I cannot see any widespread mild weather across the uk until mid march onwards and the next week or two promises plenty of frost, lots of sunshine and some snow in parts of scotland from time to time.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Don't see how anyone can be disappointed about the weather for the next few days, after a frosty start it's a beautiful day, clear blue skies, just glorious and a welcome relief after last week! Is this the theme for most of the week?

I agree - I'm very pleased and grateful for it too If the chance of something of an easterly and a few snow flakes happens then that will be great of course, but otherwise long may the calmer sunnier weather with night frosts continue!

[Weathizard]

Not at all , +8 850's in Southern UK on that chart : Very Mild flow. I will also Include an uploaded image as 6z ensembles will probably change the direct link.

The pic changed and its a much better run.

[Eugene]

No sign of any mild flow on the ensembles, a very decent start to March seems likely now with HP ruling the roost like it did most of the winter

Temps may reach near average values in prolonged sunshine but i can assure you night mins will not reach average values and could be more than 5C below average quite widely, a cold first week to March on the CET scale seems assured

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

[kent]

ECM looks gloomy, UKMO is still miles away for anything colder but I am more than happy to take this glorious sunshine down here on the South Coast on this first day of spring, "according to the Met Office". Before I am bombarded with posts on this particular date I do realise that officially because of the Vernal Equinox March the 21st is officially recognised as the first day of spring. However because of simplicity the Met. O. has little time for celestial patterns and choose to slot the 4 seasons neatly into 4 consecutive months. That said, I am more than happy to accept todays date and if the weather continues in this vein then hello Spring and welcome.

[MR EXTREMES]

yeah but ive just herd from a good source with in the meto that winter is coming back in around 9days time with blizzards predicted for most of the country with day time temps around freezing.

opps sorry i thought it was april fool oh well march fools then

all jokes aside there could be a couple of days of cold in the south and southeast but other than this straw clutching is pointless lol.

the models have been showing to be a little progressive perhapes a lesson for us newbies to lern for next winter.

i think march will have a couple of suprises maybe even april,

but then again april 2008 we had a snow event here on the southcoast,

but this year weather patterns have been more of an east northeast type,

so spring could be pretty cool to start with but maybe much milder by april and if patterns continue a nice stormy hot summer with heat from the east.

:lol:

[nick sussex]

Upstream NOAA today used the ECM operational run and its ensemble mean for the later outlook. The GFS 06hrs run made a partial backtrack towards the euros by bringing the shortwave south further west. I'd expect to see the GFS 12hrs run pull the shortwave further west and at least bring in a short easterly.

[Gowon]

GFS has backtracked with the high further west and with wintry showers in the east by early Saturday

[Eugene]

Yes disappointing for southeastern areas now for saturday, a cold, overcast and raw day expected alot different feeling than today thats for sure.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

[nick sussex]

Yes disappointing for southeastern areas now for saturday, a cold, overcast and raw day expected alot different feeling than today thats for sure.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

The UKMO brings the shortwave even further west at 96hrs, the 120hrs should have a colder east to ne flow, the GFS will probably show a northerly later as it retrogresses the high. Any sign of spring warmth is I'm afraid nowhere to be seen but perhaps a little snow if you'd like to see a few more flakes!

Edited March 1, 2010 by nick sussex

[Eugene]

Should clear by saturday night though with a harsh frost setting in, a very impressive cold arctic plunge into europe and just clipping the far southeast/south, i wonder if future runs will trend that back towards us for the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13810.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1322.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13817.png

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The UKMO brings the shortwave even further west at 96hrs, the 120hrs should have a colder east to ne flow, the GFS will probably show a northerly later as it retrogresses the high. Any sign of spring warmth is I'm afraid nowhere to be seen but perhaps a little snow if you'd like to see a few more flakes!

Yes nick, exactly as you suggest!

Very good UKMO at t120!

Edited March 1, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[nick sussex]

Yes nick, exactly as you suggest!

Very good UKMO at t120!

Not bad for you down there Tamara! :lol: The UKMO 120hrs certainly looks cold enough for some snow showers into the east and se. Still a little too far out to be sure given the models difficulty in deciding where the high sets up but overall looking pretty cold, I think the high a touch further north would be better for you.Unfortunately it looks yet again a short easterly as the models want to develop Scandi troughing and retrogress the pattern.

Edited March 1, 2010 by nick sussex

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Not bad for you down there Tamara! The UKMO 120hrs certainly looks cold enough for some snow showers into the east and se. Still a little too far out to be sure given the models difficulty in deciding where the high sets up but overall looking pretty cold, I think the high a touch further north would be better for you.

Yes for the UK ideally it would be better if the high was about another 100 miles or so further north and it sinks back again over the UK by t144

For you though nick, those are pretty wintry looking charts!!

[Shunter]

GFS has backtracked with the high further west and with wintry showers in the east by early Saturday

Posted Yesterday, 18:35

Secret Society, on 28 February 2010 - 18:29 , said:

i stopped looking at GFS about 3 years ago.

dont know why people are still even consider it a model.

Totally agree, GFS is renowned for illogical synoptical swings ( mostly at Bank Holidays and Weekends I might add ). See it move back in line on tomorrows 12z run when human input is restored.

I Rest my case !!

[nick sussex]

Yes for the UK ideally it would be better if the high was about another 100 miles or so further north and it sinks back again over the UK by t144

For you though nick, those are pretty wintry looking charts!!

Yes it does look a bit cold down here! After the storm its been pleasantly warm here so will be a bit of a shock to the system to see that strong east to ne flow again. Things warm up quickly down here into the Spring so this might be the last wintry blast but seeing as I'm feeling nice I'm happy to donate any snowfall further north into the UK so I'd be quite happy to see that high further north!

[Eugene]

Coldageddon run from GFS 12Z, very wintry run indeed

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3362.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.png

Pretty much inline with brickfielders thoughts for the first half of March at least.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UN120-21.GIF?01-17 - Looks like bitterly cold nights this weekend with some very cold dewpoints being dragged in