Model Output Discussion

[cooling climate]

forget the GFS 06z op. there should be a pos anomoly (upper high) around iceland T180. this run has a trough extension sitting there. obviously no one is saying that the NAEFS is right but at T180 it cant be '180 degrees wrong'.

also, there cant be a 'failed easterly' as per last time - read my post earlier.

Quite agree, for the reasons you have given the low that moves from southern Greenland eastward

across the top of Iceland which cuts off heights to the north and surppresses the high that brings the

easterly. Also as I have just said in a post the timing is way off compared to the ECM and UKMO.

[Frosty.]

The GFS 06z again shows the huge flaws with this model and it seems incapable of producing some continuity which was highlighted yesterday between the 00z high pressure to 6z low pressure flipflop. Anyway, whichever model run is nearest to reality, we are looking at a trend to colder weather during the week, especially from midweek onwards and the possibility of hp retrogression in just over a week.

[glosteroldboy]

Perhaps I'm in the minority but I think a dry spell is exactly what we need to let the rivers drop, so the models look quite promising in that respect?

[karyo]

The 6z gfs downgrades the easterly and doesn't offer the potential for a northerly either (unlike the ECM). The gefs ensembles are even worse with the mean on-7c for a time before rising. Previous ensembles (0z and 18z) had the mean at about -10c.

Karyo

[MR EXTREMES]

from what im seeing on most models is everything is being pushed west including the high i think brief easterly then northerly about 50% of all models give a good easterly and the other 50% give mixture of dry high cold no mild.

its not dissapointing as either way march starts on a cold theme.

i watched day after tomorrow lastnight on bluray dam i luv that film it reminds me of jan 2010 what a winter.

hope it continues.

The 6z gfs downgrades the easterly and doesn't offer the potential for a northerly either (unlike the ECM). The gefs ensembles are even worse with the mean on-7c for a time before rising. Previous ensembles (0z and 18z) had the mean at about -10c.

Karyo

never mind it is soon spring so its something we will all have to get used to soon where be loooking for the magic 21c then summer and thunderstorms oh how i love the weather.

one thing to note is with any upper air temp its worth always adding a couple of degrees here and there or even taking a couple of degrees off so marginal could well be the theme once again.

but judging by the model anything brief may produce something special its always possible and the southeast would look to be in the firing line although if the high goes any futher south then dry settled would be the theme which is something this winter has had a lack of.

but 24hrs where no for sure.

[Bottesford]

Perhaps I'm in the minority but I think a dry spell is exactly what we need to let the rivers drop, so the models look quite promising in that respect?

I'm with you - crisp (and sometimes warm in sun at times) sunny days and frosty nights sounds just perfect after the non stop cloud & rain of the past month. You can keep your grey cold easterlies till next winter!

[derrylynne]

I cannnot be the only one that would like to see some dry and warmth coming into the outlook as per the charts now. Alas although it looks like turning very warm over Africa the jet still remains 'on holiday' over the Med or Africa and it is looking as though the cold will continue. Looking to me as though it has the opportunity to turn very cold towards the end of the first week of March. I imagine there is a good possibility of more very voilent storms brewing up and coming into Portugal, Spain and France and touching our shores as the current one over the South East is doing - owing to the increasing warmth well to our south, the position of the Jet stream, and the cold still hanging in there. I would not be surprised to see snow almost anywhere during the first half of March, although of course just where the high is will of course hold the key at the end of the day...

Edited February 28, 2010 by derrylynne

[Thundery wintry showers]

Except that the easterlies in this case would not be grey and cold, due to their source from high latitudes- an easterly with a pool of cold upper air would most likely be bright and showery. So the hope for downgrades is essentially hoping for us to get a cold easterly but only a wintry mix or short-lived snowfalls from it instead of a dumping (I don't think a downgrade to a dull dry easterly looks likely at the moment though).

The HP certainly looks like it would give sunny days and frosty nights- and many southern areas in particular could do with some sunshine, it has been remarkably deficient during the second half of February. ECM also shows the high drifting W which would allow in some kind of showery northerly.

I don't think Derrylynne is the only one wanting dry warm weather- indeed most people tend to get that way around the 1st March in most years, but clearly the tantalising prospect of significant snowfalls has delayed the traditional switch flick! But while the outlook looks quite dry, it does not look particularly warm.

[Backtrack]

Yes, definatly a northerly been shown today.

Looks fairly decent if it comes off. All we need now is the other models to agree.

[Frosty.]

The latest meto is covering all bases as usual, rain,sleet,snow, sunshine etc. I guess the hint of a Northerly is there from next weekend and the sings gaffe just shows that even the meto are human

[Richard Lake]

Quite a mix of model output this morning with varying outcomes around a theme of high pressure developing just to our north and pressure staying relatively low over Europe.

The GEM is the most wintry model output this morning, the UKMO and ECM look something in between and the GFS perhaps has the least snow potential.

Plenty to play for in terms of what may happen - but what seems pretty certain is that as we turn into Spring officially - the actual Winter 09/10 pattern still continues with things very much still on the cold side.

Great output this morning from GFS. As expected the GFS has downgraded/has another view on progression of the high this week with less of the country seeing the colder temperatures, but in all for the time of year not bad. Still hoping for some upgrades along the way of course. Really need to shift this mild mush.

General observation of the weather pattern across Europe certainly shows sign of winter residing though, a friend in Sweden was telling me only yesterday that they have been stuck in deep snow for many weeks now and are sick of it all. I also read a news report yesterday about unusually high snowfall in Moscow recently, so some places have had an excellent season for sure.

NSSC, I wouldn't exactly use the word 'officially' when talking about the beginning of Spring as being the 1st of March when everyone knows it is actually 21st March; meteorology definitions of the seasons aren't 'official' per se, is there a better word we can use in its place as not to upset us traditionalists?

Edited February 28, 2010 by rikki

[Thundery wintry showers]

Surely it depends on whether we're talking spring as defined by the equinox, or meteorological spring? The former is 21st March, the latter is 1st March. Problem solved. As this is a weather forum most of us mean meteorological spring when talking about "official spring starting" so that's why the 1st March definition tends to prevail, and it makes sense since we're talking about meteorology rather than, say, astronomy.

Yes, it is ironic that despite the popular association "warm = sunny and dry, cold = dull and wet", the last half-month certainly hasn't worked that way- the dull wet stuff in the south has often seen relatively mild temperatures while the brighter north has been cold. Essentially we will be seeing that colder, brighter regime work its way south over the coming week.

Warmth and sunshine are likely to briefly coincide on Tuesday across central and southern areas of Britain with a brief southerly incursion giving temperatures of 11-13C in places.

[johnholmes]

NSSC, I wouldn't exactly use the word 'officially' when talking about the beginning of Spring as being the 1st of March when everyone knows it is actually 21st March; meteorology definitions of the seasons aren't 'official' per se, is there a better word we can use in its place as not to upset us traditionalists?

perhaps meteorological spring?

[Richard Lake]

TWS, just having a little whinge forgive me. Its a little pet hate. When people start talking about wanting Spring to come, Mushymanrob begins posting and the cold perhaps snowy weather to end, many people leave NW for another year I don't want this to come to soon. The only thing I read NW for is signs of snow, that traditional max exodus of NW is steadily approaching lets hold it back as long as we can.

Edited February 28, 2010 by rikki

[LomondSnowstorm]

TWS, just having a little whinge forgive me. Its a little pet hate. When people start talking about wanting Spring to come, Mushymanrob begins posting and the cold perhaps snowy weather to end, many people leave NW for another year I don't want this to come to soon. The only thing I read NW for is signs of snow, that traditional max exodus of NW is steadily approaching lets hold it back as long as we can.

Things are still looking cold and snowy for many areas at the moment - a dusting of snow here overnight with over a foot on most hills + uppers below -5 predominantly here. I'm going to try and avoid leaving as soon as the snow threat decreases unless of course there is no interesting weather on the horizon e.g. heatwaves, thunderstorms, May frosts, gales etc.

LS

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I'm with you - crisp (and sometimes warm in sun at times) sunny days and frosty nights sounds just perfect after the non stop cloud & rain of the past month. You can keep your grey cold easterlies till next winter!

Putting aside the issue of easterlies which I love at any time of year, I very much agree with you that as an alternative to snow showers if that doesn't materialise then sunny days and night frosts such as the GFS suggests for many parts of the country this morning is indeed still a godsend after the cloud and rain. Bring that on I say quite happily.

Regarding the subject of Spring, as Rikki mentions, there is always a pedantic nitpick about this every year, but I will stick with my own definition all the same It doesn't really matter at the end of the day in terms of crucial life aspects who adopts what definition does it?

[Eugene]

NSSC, I wouldn't exactly use the word 'officially' when talking about the beginning of Spring as being the 1st of March when everyone knows it is actually 21st March; meteorology definitions of the seasons aren't 'official' per se, is there a better word we can use in its place as not to upset us traditionalists?

So according to and the traditionalists summer doesn't start until June 21st, LOL, tell the weather that it can feel very hot in that very powerful early to mid June sun

And it can feel very cold in that very weak early to mid Dec sun

Quite a mix of model output this morning with varying outcomes around a theme of high pressure developing just to our north and pressure staying relatively low over Europe.

The GEM is the most wintry model output this morning, the UKMO and ECM look something in between and the GFS perhaps has the least snow potential.

Plenty to play for in terms of what may happen - but what seems pretty certain is that as we turn into Spring officially - the actual Winter 09/10 pattern still continues with things very much still on the cold side.

Yes exactly my thoughts staying chilly especially at night with night frosts possible almost anywhere, no sign of any spring warmth, i don't classify daytime highs of 7C to 10C as spring warmth as its around average in early to mid March, when temps rise widely to 13C to 15C with light winds and mild dewpoints is when spring is here.

Edited February 28, 2010 by Eugene

[Eugene]

Actually i feel UKMO 00Z T+144 hrs looks more wintry than ECM, GFS, GEM at T+144 hrs, some ensemble members show similar.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW144-21.GIF?28-06

[kold weather]

Putting aside the issue of easterlies which I love at any time of year, I very much agree with you that as an alternative to snow showers if that doesn't materialise then sunny days and night frosts such as the GFS suggests for many parts of the country this morning is indeed still a godsend after the cloud and rain. Bring that on I say quite happily.

Yeah though the 06z GFS is actually not that good in terms of even sunshine, that flow it shows is a classic cloudy cool set-up from say 156hrs onwards, it'd be dull and not very pleasent at all I'd suspect, a sort of anticyclonic gloom!

The ECM/GEM/UKMO are lightyears better then the 06z GFS even for sunshine levels probably!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I agree that UKMO T+144 looks the wintriest of the possible solutions, it goes for a full-on easterly which I imagine would take at least another couple of days to "topple" from the north. It's interesting, because this winter UKMO at T+144 has often thrown up the least snowy evolutions out of the three models, with mixed results- e.g. it was wrong in December, but was closer to being right than the other models at the beginning of February.

TWS, just having a little whinge forgive me. Its a little pet hate. When people start talking about wanting Spring to come, Mushymanrob begins posting and the cold perhaps snowy weather to end, many people leave NW for another year I don't want this to come to soon. The only thing I read NW for is signs of snow, that traditional max exodus of NW is steadily approaching lets hold it back as long as we can.

I have a related pet hate, connected to the "move on it's spring now" attitudes that usually accompany the exodus, which don't offer much respect to those who like Spring to be a bit more varied than the homogeneous-but-never-exceptional warmth of last year. The models do, interestingly, offer something quite varied in the coming week, for temperatures will be creeping above average in central and southern areas early this week, and then of course there's that probable east/north-easterly towards next weekend.

[kent]

I agree that UKMO T+144 looks the wintriest of the possible solutions, it goes for a full-on easterly which I imagine would take at least another couple of days to "topple" from the north. It's interesting, because this winter UKMO at T+144 has often thrown up the least snowy evolutions out of the three models, with mixed results- e.g. it was wrong in December, but was closer to being right than the other models at the beginning of February.

I have a related pet hate, connected to the "move on it's spring now" attitudes that usually accompany the exodus, which don't offer much respect to those who like Spring to be a bit more varied than the homogeneous-but-never-exceptional warmth of last year. The models do, interestingly, offer something quite varied in the coming week, for temperatures will be creeping above average in central and southern areas early this week, and then of course there's that probable east/north-easterly towards next weekend.

In other words because the GFS charts of yesterday and the Easterly accompanying it have all but gone the shape of the pear and the 06Z looking the same way cold but not that cold, to justify their disappointments of not getting their snow fix its ok then for some posters to say "Oh well it will at least remain cold for the foreseeable future". That is a pet hate of mine because there is nothing wrong with the advent of spring to want warmer and more settled weather. Our Summers are pretty short lived as it is. Why would anyone want to prolong the colder weather with the hardship it causes eg. heating costs amongst many others. Cant wait for spring now. I love snow,but only in the Winter months. It seems to me that others on here would be quite happy to see it snow in June. Im absolutely sure these people are in the minority.

[La Bise]

Seasons are fluid, some years winter will be short-lived, other it will drag forever. The current synoptics are winter ones and the 1st of March is just an arbitrary date set by people rather than some natural trigger, spring is nowhere near at the moment. When it arrives, it will probably be quite spectacular rather than the dull trickle that is usually is when the seasons follow the pattern of years gone by.

It's not as we have had a surfeit of long, cold winters in recent years...

[kent]

Seasons are fluid, some years winter will be short-lived, other it will drag forever. The current synoptics are winter ones and the 1st of March is just an arbitrary date set by people rather than some natural trigger, spring is nowhere near at the moment. When it arrives, it will probably be quite spectacular rather than the dull trickle that is usually is when the seasons follow the pattern of years gone by.

It's not as we have had a surfeit of long, cold winters in recent years...

Or lengthy Summers.

[cooling climate]

Seasons are fluid, some years winter will be short-lived, other it will drag forever. The current synoptics are winter ones and the 1st of March is just an arbitrary date set by people rather than some natural trigger, spring is nowhere near at the moment. When it arrives, it will probably be quite spectacular rather than the dull trickle that is usually is when the seasons follow the pattern of years gone by.

It's not as we have had a surfeit of long, cold winters in recent years...

Good post and quite agree. If we had a raging northeasterly with continental Arctic air and maxima

below freezing at the end of February and into March and someone pointed out that it was in fact

now spring it would be meaningless.

You could in fact be experiencing the wintriest conditions of the winter and everyone is walking around

saying its spring, absurd.

Being a lurker for a few years before I joined in November I really don't know why this crops up every

year, pointless really. The weather does not care whether it is the 28th of February or the 8th or 23rd

of March.

[kent]

Good post and quite agree. If we had a raging northeasterly with continental Arctic air and maxima

below freezing at the end of February and into March and someone pointed out that it was in fact

now spring it would be meaningless.

You could in fact be experiencing the wintriest conditions of the winter and everyone is walking around

saying its spring, absurd.

Being a lurker for a few years before I joined in November I really don't know why this crops up every

year, pointless really. The weather does not care whether it is the 28th of February or the 8th or 23rd

of March.

Youre missing the point, what people are saying is whats the use of cold weather without snow seeing as its what most on here want. Cold for colds sake without the benefits of snow is just as valid a reason to say if thats all we get then id rather have warmer temperatures.