Model Output Discussion

[john mac]

What time do the de bilt ensembles come out? They are worth keeping an eye on when an easterly ison its way

[kold weather]

i stopped looking at GFS about 3 years ago.

dont know why people are still even consider it a model.

Maybe becayse its a very good model perhaps, sure it can be wrong but there has been many times this winter where it has spotted something before every model and that was the trend that actually was followed up, esp in the set-up with the low pressure systems last week that gave Scotland good falls...also it utterly nailed the December cold spell, whilst every other model flipped and flopped...I'm not saying the GFS is the best, but its up there thats for sure along with the ECM, etc.

[snowray]

Totally agree, GFS is renowned for illogical synoptical swings ( mostly at Bank Holidays and Weekends I might add ). See it move back in line on tomorrows 12z run when human input is restored.

Meanwhile ECM is still onside for a cold Easterly :-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

So its ECM and UKMO V GFS and GEM, here we go again!

One thing that I have noticed is that since the GFS upgrade in mid December, GFS remains quite good at picking up long term trends, but of course with 4 runs a day that shouldn't be too difficult. Shorter term though its been all over the place, and if anything the 18z seems to me the most consistent of the lot, and 06z turing regularly into a right mavarick of a run, with 12z simply following the 06z lead! Anyone got the recent performace tables handy?

I bet 18z will come into line later on.

Edited February 28, 2010 by snowray

[Tom D]

I quite like the ECM tonight - a short, potentially snowy event for England and Wales, then some settled sunshine and frosty weather. Perfect start to March IMO, some sunshine.

[nick sussex]

These easterlies have certainly been very elusive this winter with the models always throwing a spanner in the works as the timeframe nears. Although the ECM and UKMO look more positive for at least a short easterly they really depend on that shortwave heading south at 120hrs and given past history with these features not something you'd want to bet on happening.

Unfortunately we're coming to that time of year where generally only two synoptic set ups have a chance of delivering, Arctic northerlies with inland convection developing lots of heavy wintry showers and ne'rlies to easterlies but these have to be drawing on a very cold upper pool and a strong flow.

Later into March its generally only Arctic northerlies that can produce temporary snowfalls as continental Europe warms quickly at this time so for any real wintry weather it really has to come earlier in the month.

[TEITS]

I would love the ECM/UKMO to be correct at +144 but due to the pattern I have noticed from the models this winter I fear the GFS is correct.

What I have learn't this winter is not only are the E,lys downgraded in strength and length but its often the GFS that first picks up on the downgrades. Im not surprised at the UKMO/ECM but I have a sneaky feeling come tomorrow they won't look as promising. The GFS even outperformed the NAE model wrt the occluded front that gave snowfall across Scotland.

[Secret Society]

The UKMO, ECM and metoffice are on board for a cold easterly by Friday the only model that isn't is the GFS. We only all follow the GFS because of the Data centre on here providing a comprehensive breakdown of all the output and interpreting it into precipitype / snow depths etc. I would expect the GFS to fall back in line tommorow.

re gfs

from what i read so far this winter, its constantly being dragged kicking and screaming to be in line with the euros, making it look very poor.

its gets worse year by year.

i just see it as a freebie model used by weather sites for free forecasts. eg two etc

even noaa marvel at ukmo/ecm this winter.

[keithlucky]

I would love the ECM/UKMO to be correct at +144 but due to the pattern I have noticed from the models this winter I fear the GFS is correct.

What I have learn't this winter is not only are the E,lys downgraded in strength and length but its often the GFS that first picks up on the downgrades. Im not surprised at the UKMO/ECM but I have a sneaky feeling come tomorrow they won't look as promising. The GFS even outperformed the NAE model wrt the occluded front that gave snowfall across Scotland.

Nope got to disagree you will finally see your easterley eye with the met predicting easterley wednesday.

[Geordiesnow]

The UKMO, ECM and metoffice are on board for a cold easterly by Friday the only model that isn't is the GFS. We only all follow the GFS because of the Data centre on here providing a comprehensive breakdown of all the output and interpreting it into precipitype / snow depths etc. I would expect the GFS to fall back in line tommorow.

Have you noticed though that the easterly has been downgraded though in strength on the ECM and even the UKMO looks like a downgrade from this mornings output. Looks like the GFS is not keen on have the high far enough north to have much of an easterly flow and it was right with this the last time. Could it be right again?

People only say the GFS is not consistant is because A, its showing what people don't want too see. B, it runs 4 times a day giving the misleading conception that its an inconsistant model and C, other people say it is a poor model thus the trend carries on just like the trend that people think the UKMO at 144 hours is more often than not, poor.

Theres no reason to believe the output at 120 hours on any output will occur like that, changes to come i feel and i also feel the 12Z GFS run was too overprogressive in toppling any easterly flow.

[winterof79]

I would love the ECM/UKMO to be correct at +144 but due to the pattern I have noticed from the models this winter I fear the GFS is correct.

What I have learn't this winter is not only are the E,lys downgraded in strength and length but its often the GFS that first picks up on the downgrades. Im not surprised at the UKMO/ECM but I have a sneaky feeling come tomorrow they won't look as promising. The GFS even outperformed the NAE model wrt the occluded front that gave snowfall across Scotland.

And more often than not,first to pick up on the easterly it downgrades

[Secret Society]

bets on next GFS run to be snowy armageddon again?

[john mac]

Just out of intrest what are the NOAA discussions saying today?

[LomondSnowstorm]

I would love the ECM/UKMO to be correct at +144 but due to the pattern I have noticed from the models this winter I fear the GFS is correct.

What I have learn't this winter is not only are the E,lys downgraded in strength and length but its often the GFS that first picks up on the downgrades. Im not surprised at the UKMO/ECM but I have a sneaky feeling come tomorrow they won't look as promising. The GFS even outperformed the NAE model wrt the occluded front that gave snowfall across Scotland.

Spot on post. The GFS has led the way in downgrading easterlies this year, with the only main one that stuck being the one that the GFS predicted from +240 for the 17th December, and even this was a non-event in length and strength for northern areas compared to the low sinking from the north. Easterlies being squeezed out to leave northerlies/ a trough moving south from the Norwegian Sea has been the main model trend this year, and I have no reason to suspect that this will be any different. This also means though that the milder air is less likely to move east across Scotland and northern England as the low will be squeezed out by the building cold high, but this also limits the chance of a snow event for northern parts. We can talk all we like about the GFS being a joke model, we can even partly justify this by posting verification stats at times, but you have to admit that the GFS has been handling things pretty well lately, including the northerly positioning of the occlusion, which was too far north even for much of coastal and lowland central Scotland.

I'm not saying in any way that there will not be any cold or snowy weather for the rest of March, or even next week, it is merely that the easterly shown is likely to be either a very transient feature for most or one affecting just the southeasternmost parts of the UK.

LS

[john mac]

Spot on post. The GFS has led the way in downgrading easterlies this year, with the only main one that stuck being the one that the GFS predicted from +240 for the 17th December, and even this was a non-event in length and strength for northern areas compared to the low sinking from the north. Easterlies being squeezed out to leave northerlies/ a trough moving south from the Norwegian Sea has been the main model trend this year, and I have no reason to suspect that this will be any different. This also means though that the milder air is less likely to move east across Scotland and northern England as the low will be squeezed out by the building cold high, but this also limits the chance of a snow event for northern parts. We can talk all we like about the GFS being a joke model, we can even partly justify this by posting verification stats at times, but you have to admit that the GFS has been handling things pretty well lately, including the northerly positioning of the occlusion, which was too far north even for much of coastal and lowland central Scotland.

I'm not saying in any way that there will not be any cold or snowy weather for the rest of March, or even next week, it is merely that the easterly shown is likely to be either a very transient feature for most or one affecting just the southeasternmost parts of the UK.

LS

That will do for me my friend havent you lot up there had enough snow this winter lol

[Backtrack]

The UKMO, ECM and metoffice are on board for a cold easterly by Friday the only model that isn't is the GFS. We only all follow the GFS because of the Data centre on here providing a comprehensive breakdown of all the output and interpreting it into precipitype / snow depths etc. I would expect the GFS to fall back in line tommorow.

Friday?

Looks like starting Wednesday to me, then going Northerly by Thurs?

[kent]

Still a messy scenario for me. The UKMO and ECM look to be favouring some kind of flabby couple of days easterly which would affect mainly the SE then an equally uncertain NE which doesnt look particular exciting either. But this will probably all change with the next set of outputs.

[john mac]

Hopefully the GFS 18z will give us plenty to talk about tonight, cant believe how quiet it is on here tonight

[lukemc]

And as we all know snow is possible well into March and going by the experience of past Marches over the last 6 years or so I would be extremely surprised if we did not get lowland snow at least in some areas of England this March.

Video taken in Liverpool not far from where I live March 2006:

http://www.youtube.com/watch#playnext=1&playnext_from=TL&videos=9rGtJuO0jvA&v=fe3ZoACw16c

Anyway what where the exact synoptics and upper temps in that event? Despite someone posting on this forum that we need -10Hpa uppers to get lying snow in March, I have read a post on the NW Regional forum saying that the uppers for that event where not that high and actually quite marginal. I think there was 12cm or more in parts of lowland NW England from that and it extended into Western Scotland and of course North Wales too. Was it a battleground event and did it come out of a northerly?

Anyway considering that I would not bet against lowland snow this March, and is it true that in recent years March has often been snowier than December? So it is perfectly possible for places to have thier heaviest snowfall of the winter in March so plenty to keep the interest going on these forums for snow as we go into March. Also did March 1996 which was also cold have any significant snow events?

Luke

[Tom D]

And as we all know snow is possible well into March and going by the experience of past Marches over the last 6 years or so I would be extremely surprised if we did not get lowland snow at least in some areas of England this March.

Video taken in Liverpool not far from where I live March 2006:

http://www.youtube.com/watch#playnext=1&playnext_from=TL&videos=9rGtJuO0jvA&v=fe3ZoACw16c

People should have no doubt over snow possibilities in March, especially this early in March. We had snow in mid April in 2008 and in October of the same year in Hertfordshire, and not just snow falling, a good 3/4cm settling too.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the 18z going with the ECM this evening, but then GFS is always full of surprises.

[phil nw.]

Friday?

Looks like starting Wednesday to me, then going Northerly by Thurs?

Yes i was going to post regarding Weds.when the High starts building just to our North with the flow starting to turn to the North East.

Fax here at T72hrs,

However we have cold air already and continuing through the week,in fact the upper temps will be no colder by Weds.

Tomorrow

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=24&carte=1007

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=72&carte=1007

If the ECM was to verify even by Friday the uppers would be similar.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=0&map=0&archive=0

That trough could well give a mixture of rain or snow midweek,depending on height,intensity of perc.etc.

Certainly a below average week in prospect,mainly dry with night frosts untill midweek and then a spell of wintry showers midweek,for many.

[john mac]

the GFS18z is rolling out now

[snowray]

And more often than not,first to pick up on the easterly it downgrades

How very true, invariably it does pick them up 1st then downgrades them 1st............so they never happen anyway! Talk about chocolate Teapots.

[ian34]

forgive me all for saying this but after quitely sitting on the sidelines for years on this forum i find it incredible that people are still wishing and hoping for snow the winters are long enough and i for one will be glad to see the back of it and look forward to more spring like weather that is probarbly the reason why it is so quite on here maybe some of you can give me some hope for better weather at least by the end of march off topic mods i know and i do enjoy reading all the forecasts and opinions on here ok rant over

[andymusic]

forgive me all for saying this but after quitely sitting on the sidelines for years on this forum i find it incredible that people are still wishing and hoping for snow the winters are long enough and i for one will be glad to see the back of it and look forward to more spring like weather that is probarbly the reason why it is so quite on here maybe some of you can give me some hope for better weather at least by the end of march off topic mods i know and i do enjoy reading all the forecasts and opinions on here ok rant over

well I hear what your saying but the models still want to extend winter a bit yet, so it's not just us "wishing" for snow, the actual forecasts are still bringing these scenarios up with nothing remotely warm on the cards just yet

[ian34]

well I hear what your saying but the models still want to extend winter a bit yet, so it's not just us "wishing" for snow, the actual forecasts are still bringing these scenarios up with nothing remotely warm on the cards just yet

oh well at least i can hope but surely it has to end somewhere thanks for the reply