Model Output Discussion

[Weather-history]

Looks increasingly like anticyclonicity dominating the earlier part of March, could be a dry first half to March. Unfortunately I suspect the high will become increasingly cloudy.

[cooling climate]

Nothing wintry of any note on the GFS 18z run and although the Euro runs look

better easterly wise than the GFS they to have significantly down graded the

easterly.

Mind you I would not be at all surprised if the models did upgrade the cold and

wintryness as we go through the week.

Edited February 28, 2010 by cooling climate

[john mac]

To me the 18z is an improvement for my area, -10c uppers by early thursday, and very close to a decent snow event for friday

[snowray]

forgive me all for saying this but after quitely sitting on the sidelines for years on this forum i find it incredible that people are still wishing and hoping for snow the winters are long enough and i for one will be glad to see the back of it and look forward to more spring like weather that is probarbly the reason why it is so quite on here maybe some of you can give me some hope for better weather at least by the end of march off topic mods i know and i do enjoy reading all the forecasts and opinions on here ok rant over

Problem we have though is that it will not be mild, I would love an Early Spring, but GFS is showing a cold, dreary, drizzly outlook for many. Western half of the UK might see a few sunny spells though. A day or 2 of Snow in early March would have been nice for the snow fans in the South that have missed out in February, in fact last nights 18z was showing Nationwide snowfall, better than cold anticyclonic gloom.

Edited February 28, 2010 by snowray

[kent]

Typical 18Z possibility of colder weather, possibility of going off in the other direction. Stalemate.

[john mac]

I have to say im pretty happy with the 18z, there is some very cold air to our east, a shift of the high 200 miles west and its game on potential for a snow fest for the south east and east anglia

Typical 18Z possibility of colder weather, possibility of going off in the other direction. Stalemate.

Dont be too down, it wouldnt take much of a shift for the really cold weather to back eastwards bringing a fair part of southern england into play

[ribster]

Nothing wintry of any note on the GFS 18z run and although the Euro runs look

better easterly wise than the GFS they to have significantly down graded the

easterly.

Mind you I would not be at all surprised if the models did upgrade the cold and

wintryness as we go through the week.

-3/-4 in City centres Monday night, and I daresay it will be a fair bit colder than that here, and the outlook is cold. In my book that's wintry - unless by 'any note' you mean snowmageddon, then you're right, that isn't showing...

[kent]

For those that want a continuing cold outlook with chance of snow as it stands at this present time albeit mainly in the south then hope for the FCM and UKMO solution. Judging by the performance of the 18Z lately consider it an outlier. Its a merry go round, tomorrows outputs will probably throw another spanner in the works lol.

[Snowgrowler]

Just watched the BBC weather and Rob McElwee referred to a North Easterly and then an Easterly later in the week saying "and that could be interesting" - still seems to me that the models will be interesting watching for the next few days.

[Derp Patrol]

Woohoo, it's officially Spring The end of the GFS run showing signs of Spring. SWerlies turning to southerlies, bringing uppers of > +5C to the south. Could be looking at the first 15C in around 10-15 days. I've seen enough cold, dull, and wet weather. Any potential snowfall for my area will be very marginal now, and it's now the time of year where I start looking for warmer weather. Either way, some of us will be happy, and others of us not. I know that many on here love cold conditions right up untill April, but not me!

[kold weather]

Looks increasingly like anticyclonicity dominating the earlier part of March, could be a dry first half to March. Unfortunately I suspect the high will become increasingly cloudy.

Yep, it'll be good for drying the ground out in the south and nothing else, cool to start with but probably becoming very cloudy and dull and temps a touch below seasonal averages but very little chance of frost in that set-up unless there are local breaks in the cloud, the 18z looks rather dull and plain for most!

It'd be better if there was some decent sunshine levels but the 18z wouldn't even give us that I'd suspect past Thursday-Friday...

[danm]

Woohoo, it's officially Spring The end of the GFS run showing signs of Spring. SWerlies turning to southerlies, bringing uppers of > +5C to the south. Could be looking at the first 15C in around 10-15 days. I've seen enough cold, dull, and wet weather. Any potential snowfall for my area will be very marginal now, and it's now the time of year where I start looking for warmer weather. Either way, some of us will be happy, and others of us not. I know that many on here love cold conditions right up untill April, but not me!

I agree 100%. We've been on the wrong side of marginal for a good few weeks round here and all that's lead to is cold, dull and damp weather with far more rain than we're used to here in the relatively dry SE. Any snowfall at this time if year will be very short lived and would need some exceptionally cold air for it to lay for any significant period of time.

Spring has officially started. Let's get some sunshine and await the first 15c/16c's of the season.

[TEITS]

Quiet a big difference in the models this morning at +144. The UKMO/ECM/NOGAPS want to move a LP S on Friday with cold E,lys following into S England. The GFS/GME/GEM aren't really interested and keep the E,lys into France/Spain.

The most promising model this morning is the NOGAPS.

Strong E,lys.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-0-144.png?01-06

Reload NE,lys.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-0-180.png?01-06

So who is right? Well remember that time when the BBC/Met O were forecasting very cold E,lys and snow and yet only the UKMO model supported this? Well I feel the same could happen yet again. I really want to believe in the UKMO/ECM/NOGAPS but I feel something inbetween is going to be the reality.

My own forecast for the next 2 weeks based on all the model output is we're going to miss out on the E,lys and also the possible reloading N,lys. I feel HP will be centred over the UK with the E,lys hitting France/Spain instead of the UK. I also feel we shall miss out on the N,lys with HP being centred over the UK or just to the S with any cold N,lys affecting E Europe instead. So for the next few weeks remaining dry with average or just below max temps with min temps below freezing bringing night frosts. However into the 2nd week of March probably more cloud with average max temps and less frost at night.

I would love to be wrong though.

[cooling climate]

Very disappointing charts this morning if its cold and snowy weather your after.

The charts bare no resemblance to the bitter snowy east, north-easterlies we

saw a couple of days ago, and the low that was to support this bitter snowy

easterly later this week has disappeared without trace.

According to the Euro's it now looks as though it will be the weekend before

a easterly airflow will be established across the country. With this in mind it is

possible we could see this upgraded during the coming week.

I said yesterday that the GFS was being way to progressive in bring the easterly

in by midweek.

[MR EXTREMES]

Quiet a big difference in the models this morning at +144. The UKMO/ECM/NOGAPS want to move a LP S on Friday with cold E,lys following into S England. The GFS/GME/GEM aren't really interested and keep the E,lys into France/Spain.

The most promising model this morning is the NOGAPS.

Strong E,lys.

http://91.121.94.83/...0-144.png?01-06

Reload NE,lys.

http://91.121.94.83/...0-180.png?01-06

So who is right? Well remember that time when the BBC/Met O were forecasting very cold E,lys and snow and yet only the UKMO model supported this? Well I feel the same could happen yet again. I really want to believe in the UKMO/ECM/NOGAPS but I feel something inbetween is going to be the reality.

My own forecast for the next 2 weeks based on all the model output is we're going to miss out on the E,lys and also the possible reloading N,lys. I feel HP will be centred over the UK with the E,lys hitting France/Spain instead of the UK. I also feel we shall miss out on the N,lys with HP being centred over the UK or just to the S with any cold N,lys affecting E Europe instead. So for the next few weeks remaining dry with average or just below max temps with min temps below freezing bringing night frosts. However into the 2nd week of March probably more cloud with average max temps and less frost at night.

I would love to be wrong though.

i dont see that high sticking around for to long to be honest as gp said a few days back that he felt it would be futher south and likely to slip away farely quickly i think hes spot on he said this before the models predicted.

as for the easterly perhapes a day or two of cold in the south then as you rightly said moving into france ect,

its been a regular thing that after january deep cold misses us.

still 1st of march and the sun is shining i think thats a hint that spring is almost here

Edited March 1, 2010 by badboy657

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Yes, definite signs that 'the big three' are all edging towards to a solution where the high pressure is centred on or close to the UK, and therefore no 'dramatic' weather likely, whether it be wintry, stormy or especially warm weather you're after. FI teasing with some warmer possibilities, and given there are still patches of snow around up here, (most of which have not completely melted since the first larger falls in mid-Decemeber, which means patches of lying snow for two and a half months - not sure when that last happened for this location), a little bit of warmth would be welcome !

[MR EXTREMES]

Very disappointing charts this morning if its cold and snowy weather your after.

The charts bare no resemblance to the bitter snowy east, north-easterlies we

saw a couple of days ago, and the low that was to support this bitter snowy

easterly later this week has disappeared without trace.

According to the Euro's it now looks as though it will be the weekend before

a easterly airflow will be established across the country. With this in mind it is

possible we could see this upgraded during the coming week.

I said yesterday that the GFS was being way to progressive in bring the easterly

in by midweek.

to be honest i think its time to let go of winter,

id say this was one last chance and its passing us quickly now i expect next week either much more spring like or much more unsettled.

but hey i think alot of people are fedup with the cold now so maybe the gfs might bring what they wish for.

but its intresting battle in the models 3 against 3 lol:whistling:

[cuckoo]

Looks to me (sadly) like a similar situation to mid-February where the high was just too close to us and the cold air slips away to our East into Central Europe.

I am keeping my fingers crossed that the trait of Easterlies disappearing from the output only to reappear slightly before the event holds true but this is probably just me clutching at straws.

[nick sussex]

Quite an interesting difference of opinion this morning betweeen the major models all centred around a shortwave that heads south, the GFS still has this feature but runs it south too far east, the ECM and UKMO look much the same in their 00hrs output from yesteday evenings regarding the all important shortwave. The further west this shortwave comes the better chance of at least a short easterly and the ECM does pull in some very cold upper air later.

If the ECM and UKMO had this completely wrong then I would have expected a backtrack this morning, the fact they still go with this and given the timeframes involved then I would be surprised to not see at least some partial backtrack from the GFS 06hrs run.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Looks to me (sadly) like a similar situation to mid-February where the high was just too close to us and the cold air slips away to our East into Central Europe.

I am keeping my fingers crossed that the trait of Easterlies disappearing from the output only to reappear slightly before the event holds true but this is probably just me clutching at straws.

Anyway 2 charts from me this morning .. The First is best for Cold the Second is best for Warmth.

The Mild chart brings nearly +10 850's into Southern and Central UK.

Edited March 1, 2010 by shuggee
Off topic

[Weather-history]

Met office forecast

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Unsettled and often cloudy and also rather cold. Most areas will have rain or sleet at times, and with some snow likely in places, especially over hills.

Updated: 0259 on Mon 1 Mar 2010

Baffled because their own model does not support this. Looks dry for most of the week for the bulk of the UK

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm723.gif

Edited March 1, 2010 by Mr_Data

[snowmadchrisuk]

GFS forecasts some quite widespread Showers later this afternoon for the Midlands filtering in through the Cheshire Gap , Looking at the latest radar this looks like this might be possible aided by confection . Although 850's and the 528 damline is into France Temps look like they will be far to high for any Snow showers but will be interesting to see how it develops , after that the 6z continues to program the high building over the UK. Upgrades to Cold or Mild will remain possible why were in this situation .

[Geordiesnow]

The Mild chart brings nearly +10 850's into Southern and Central UK.

Eh! the +10 upper air temp is thousand of miles away on that 2nd chart. The uppers do reach +5 but its a small pool of +5 upper air.

Anyways it seems to me that the Euro's are playing catch up to the GFS, UKMO still give a slight tease at 144 hours but it did that yesterday at 144 hours and yet you look at the 120 hours chart, instead of a full on easterly, it shows a slack northerly which has the words DULL written all over it i feel.

I suppose this week could potentially be quite a sunny week with cold frosty nights, not too bad.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Eh! the +10 upper air temp is thousand of miles away on that 2nd chart. The uppers do reach +5 but its a small pool of +5 upper air.

Anyways it seems to me that the Euro's are playing catch up to the GFS, UKMO still give a slight tease at 144 hours but it did that yesterday at 144 hours and yet you look at the 120 hours chart, instead of a full on easterly, it shows a slack northerly which has the words DULL written all over it i feel.

I suppose this week could potentially be quite a sunny week with cold frosty nights, not too bad.

Not at all , +8 850's in Southern UK on that chart : Very Mild flow. I will also Include an uploaded image as 6z ensembles will probably change the direct link.

[Nick B]

GFS forecasts some quite widespread Showers later this afternoon for the Midlands filtering in through the Cheshire Gap , Looking at the latest radar this looks like this might be possible aided by confection . Although 850's and the 528 damline is into France Temps look like they will be far to high for any Snow showers but will be interesting to see how it develops , after that the 6z continues to program the high building over the UK. Upgrades to Cold or Mild will remain possible why were in this situation .

Yum! What type of confection? Should we stand outside with something to catch it?