METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 17 Oct 2012 to Wednesday 31 Oct 2012:

Indications are that through the second half of October mixed autumnal weather will dominate across the UK. There will be some dry and bright periods, interspersed with showers or longer periods of rain. Rainfall amounts in the south in particular are more likely to be above average than below. There are hints that some northwestern parts of the UK may be drier than normal for late October. Temperatures are likely to be generally close to average, or perhaps a little below at times with some chilly nights possible and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1251 on Tue 2 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 18 Oct 2012 to Thursday 1 Nov 2012:

Indications are that through the second half of October and into early November mixed autumnal weather will dominate across the UK. There will be some dry and bright periods, interspersed with showers or longer periods of rain. Rainfall amounts in the south in particular are more likely to be above average than below. There are hints that some northwestern parts of the UK may be drier than normal for late October. Temperatures are likely to be generally close to average, or perhaps a little below at times with some chilly nights possible and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1243 on Wed 3 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 19 Oct 2012 to Friday 2 Nov 2012:

Indications are that through the second half of October and into early November mixed autumnal weather will dominate across the UK. There will be some dry and bright periods, interspersed with showers or longer periods of rain. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts. Temperatures are likely to be generally close to average, or perhaps a little below at times with some chilly nights possible and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1207 on Thu 4 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 20 Oct 2012 to Saturday 3 Nov 2012:

Indications are that through the second half of October and into early November mixed autumnal weather will dominate across the UK. There will be some dry and bright periods, interspersed with showers or longer periods of rain. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts. Temperatures are likely to be generally close to average, but perhaps falling below normal towards the end of October, with some chilly nights possible and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1238 on Fri 5 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 21 Oct 2012 to Sunday 4 Nov 2012:

Indications are that through the end of October and into early November mixed autumnal weather will dominate across the UK. There will be some dry and bright periods, interspersed with showers or longer periods of rain. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts. Temperatures are likely to be generally close to average, but perhaps falling below normal towards the end of October, with some chilly nights possible and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1237 on Sat 6 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 22 Oct 2012 to Monday 5 Nov 2012:

Indications are that through the end of October and into early November mixed autumnal weather will dominate across the UK. There will be some dry and bright periods, interspersed with showers or longer periods of rain. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts. Temperatures are likely to be generally close to average, but perhaps falling below normal towards the end of October, with some chilly nights possible and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1159 on Sun 7 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Oct 2012 to Tuesday 6 Nov 2012:

Indications are that through the end of October and into early November mixed autumnal weather will dominate across the UK. There will be some dry and bright periods, interspersed with showers or longer periods of rain. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts. Temperatures are likely to be generally close to average, but perhaps falling below normal towards the end of October, with some chilly nights possible and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1247 on Mon 8 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Oct 2012 to Wednesday 7 Nov 2012:

Indications are that through the end of October and into early November mixed autumnal weather will dominate across the UK. There will be some dry and bright periods, interspersed with showers or longer periods of rain. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts. Temperatures are likely to be below or perhaps at times well below average for the time of year, with some chilly nights possible and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1236 on Tue 9 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Oct 2012 to Thursday 8 Nov 2012:

Indications are that through the end of October and into early November mixed autumnal weather will dominate across the UK. There will be some dry and bright periods, interspersed with showers or longer periods of rain. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts. Temperatures are likely to be below or perhaps at times well below average for the time of year, with some chilly nights possible and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1150 on Wed 10 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 26 Oct 2012 to Friday 9 Nov 2012:

Indications are that through the end of October and into early November mixed autumnal weather will dominate across the UK. There will be some dry and bright periods, interspersed with showers or longer periods of rain. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts. Temperatures are likely to be below or perhaps at times well below average for the time of year, with some chilly nights possible and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1259 on Thu 11 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[johnholmes]

It's now a week since there was any change to the above wording so they must feel fairly sure of themselves, I am thinking of the phrase about the temperatures?

[SnowObsessor90]

It's now a week since there was any change to the above wording so they must feel fairly sure of themselves, I am thinking of the phrase about the temperatures?

I don't know, if the idea of the TS disrupting things as shown by the GFS 06z starts to gather enough support then that particular phrase ould quite easily flip to above average.

Edited October 11, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Summer Sun]

It's now a week since there was any change to the above wording so they must feel fairly sure of themselves, I am thinking of the phrase about the temperatures?

They seem to have spells like this then all of a sudden it gets updated frequently

[johnholmes]

I don't know, if the idea of the TS disrupting things as shown by the GFS 06z starts to gather enough support then that particular phrase ould quite easily flip to above average.

It could indeed but as I've commented about their large amount of model input, so far, the 06z is a one off. Time may show it to be either that or the start of a change in model output. All they can do is go with their professional instincts with the data available to them, which is much more than we ever see.

They seem to have spells like this then all of a sudden it gets updated frequently

they only update the 16-30 as they feel necessary SS as I posted about 12 months ago after e mail discussions with the forecast team. The fact they have chosen not to update their temperature phrase is significant.

[Yozzer]

It could indeed but as I've commented about their large amount of model input, so far, the 06z is a one off. Time may show it to be either that or the start of a change in model output. All they can do is go with their professional instincts with the data available to them, which is much more than we ever see.

they only update the 16-30 as they feel necessary SS as I posted about 12 months ago after e mail discussions with the forecast team. The fact they have chosen not to update their temperature phrase is significant.

I suppose it has been updated in one way - if the 16-30 has been the same wording for one week, then the timing has been put back by one week!

[SnowObsessor90]

It could indeed but as I've commented about their large amount of model input, so far, the 06z is a one off. Time may show it to be either that or the start of a change in model output. All they can do is go with their professional instincts with the data available to them, which is much more than we ever see.

But on the flipside there have a number of instances over the last few weeks where the models have overdone the extent of high pressure domination so maybe this could be another one of those times.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 27 Oct 2012 to Saturday 10 Nov 2012:

Indications are that through the end of October and into November mixed autumnal weather will continue to dominate across the UK. Some drier and less unsettled spells are likely, particularly across eastern and perhaps southeastern parts of the UK for a time. There will, however, also be showers or longer periods of rain affecting most parts but more especially the north and west. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts through this period. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of year, with some chilly nights possible with mist and fog patches developing and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1246 on Fri 12 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

Finally a change in the outlook, temperatures are now likely to be around average rather than below or perhaps at times well below average

UK Outlook for Saturday 27 Oct 2012 to Saturday 10 Nov 2012:

Indications are that through the end of October and into November mixed autumnal weather will continue to dominate across the UK. Some drier and less unsettled spells are likely, particularly across eastern and perhaps southeastern parts of the UK for a time. There will, however, also be showers or longer periods of rain affecting most parts but more especially the north and west. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts through this period. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of year, with some chilly nights possible with mist and fog patches developing and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1246 on Fri 12 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Edited October 12, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Stuart]

I have all reday updated it

[Summer Sun]

I have all reday updated it

We both seem to have hit the post button at the same time

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 28 Oct 2012 to Sunday 11 Nov 2012:

Indications are that through the end of October and into November mixed autumnal weather will continue to dominate across the UK. Some drier and less unsettled spells are likely, particularly across eastern and perhaps southeastern parts of the UK for a time. There will, however, also be showers or longer periods of rain affecting most parts but more especially the north and west. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts through this period. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of year, with some chilly nights possible with mist and fog patches developing and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1242 on Sat 13 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 29 Oct 2012 to Monday 12 Nov 2012:

Indications are that through the end of October and into November mixed autumnal weather will continue to dominate across the UK. Some drier and less unsettled spells are likely, particularly across eastern and perhaps southeastern parts of the UK for a time. There will, however, also be showers or longer periods of rain affecting most parts but more especially the north and west. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts through this period. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of year, with some chilly nights possible with mist and fog patches developing and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1257 on Sun 14 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 30 Oct 2012 to Tuesday 13 Nov 2012:

Indications are that through the end of October and into November mixed autumnal weather will continue to dominate across the UK. Some drier and less unsettled spells are likely, particularly across eastern and perhaps southeastern parts of the UK for a time. There will, however, also be showers or longer periods of rain affecting most parts but more especially the north and west. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts through this period. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of year, with some chilly nights possible with mist and fog patches developing and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1234 on Mon 15 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 31 Oct 2012 to Wednesday 14 Nov 2012:

Indications are that through the end of October and into November mixed autumnal weather will continue to dominate across the UK. Some drier and less unsettled spells are likely, particularly across eastern and perhaps southeastern parts of the UK for a time. There will, however, also be showers or longer periods of rain affecting most parts but more especially the north and west. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts through this period. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of year, with some chilly nights possible with mist and fog patches developing and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1241 on Tue 16 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Nov 2012 to Thursday 15 Nov 2012:

Indications are that through the first half of November, mixed autumnal weather will continue to dominate across the UK. Some drier and less unsettled spells are likely, particularly across eastern and perhaps southeastern parts of the UK for a time. There will, however, also be showers or longer periods of rain affecting most parts but more especially the north and west. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts through this period. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of year, with some chilly nights possible with mist and fog patches developing and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1233 on Wed 17 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html