METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[Mark Neal.]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 21 Nov 2012 to Wednesday 5 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the changeable conditions will continue through the start of this forecast period. Rainfall amounts are more likely to be above the seasonal average rather than below, especially across England and Wales. There is also a signal for temperatures to be close to or just below the seasonal average. Towards the latter part of the period, there are some suggestions that conditions will turn drier with more in the way of sunshine, but also colder, with temperatures well below the seasonal average. This will give a greater risk of overnight frosts.

Updated: 1134 on Tue 6 Nov 2012

WE HAVE LIFT OFF!!!!!

That seems like they are hinting at the potential for high pressure to give some cold nights with frosts. At least some sunshine by day and feeling cold. interesting times to watch ahead..

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 21 Nov 2012 to Wednesday 5 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the changeable conditions will continue through the start of this forecast period. Rainfall amounts are more likely to be above the seasonal average rather than below, especially across England and Wales. There is also a signal for temperatures to be close to or just below the seasonal average. Towards the latter part of the period, there are some suggestions that conditions will turn drier with more in the way of sunshine, but also colder, with temperatures well below the seasonal average. This will give a greater risk of overnight frosts.

Updated: 1134 on Tue 6 Nov 2012

WE HAVE LIFT OFF!!!!!

A positive update not what snow fans would want to see with suggestions that conditions will turn drier but its a case of one step at a time

Edited November 6, 2012 by Summer Sun

[feb1991blizzard]

That seems like they are hinting at the potential for high pressure to give some cold nights with frosts. At least some sunshine by day and feeling cold. interesting times to watch ahead..

Yes Mark its not a stonker by all means as no snow is mentioned and they are only talking about it as a possibility but there are some important things to note, the fact that they are talking about well below rather than just below suggests the high MAY be just to our north west, they also only say driER rather than completely dry, and also assuming it was slap bang over us that begs the question - where do we go after that?

A positive update not what snow fans would want to see with suggestions that conditions will turn drier but its a case of one step at a time

Exactly.

[Mark Neal.]

Yes Mark its not a stonker by all means as no snow is mentioned and they are only talking about it as a possibility but there are some important things to note, the fact that they are talking about well below rather than just below suggests the high MAY be just to our north west, they also only say driER rather than completely dry, and also assuming it was slap bang over us that begs the question - where do we go after that?

Exactly.

Small steps. But good to see the Met Office seeing things turn cold or very cold as we start December at this stage. Long way off still but very encouraging iMO.

[Heisenberg]

Yes Mark its not a stonker by all means as no snow is mentioned and they are only talking about it as a possibility but there are some important things to note, the fact that they are talking about well below rather than just below suggests the high MAY be just to our north west, they also only say driER rather than completely dry, and also assuming it was slap bang over us that begs the question - where do we go after that?

Exactly.

As we have said many times, get the cold first and the snow will come....I sound like kevin Costner (Whisper) if you get cold, Snow will come lol

[feb1991blizzard]

As we have said many times, get the cold first and the snow will come....I sound like kevin Costner (Whisper) if you get cold, Snow will come lol

Yes, obviously we want more than surface cold to get snow but as i said, where do we go from there if we get a high over us, if you asked me what i desperately want to see more than anything is the upper strat becoming favourable by wavebreaking, if this could happen and the ECM 32 dayer continuing decent then i will say game on and even maybe odds on until then - fingers crossed.

[Barry12]

'Precipitation (rain and snow) was well below average for the UK, recording just 38% of what is normally expected in December. This makes it the third driest December in the series that goes back to 1910.' That was in december 2010, a dry winter does not mean no snow or little snow.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Small steps. But good to see the Met Office seeing things turn cold or very cold as we start December at this stage. Long way off still but very encouraging iMO.

It'll be the opposite then......no kidding, just interesting re blocking in their thoughts....I think though that the general consensus is pm and rPM flow for up to and just beyond mid month.

BFTP

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

It'll be the opposite then......no kidding, just interesting re blocking in their thoughts....I think though that the general consensus is pm and rPM flow for up to and just beyond mid month.

BFTP

Persoanlly I can live with that, even in these milder phases temps are reaching only average for time of year, a million times better than the Azores high anchored to the SW of UK pumping up crazily mild air :-)

[Radiating Dendrite]

i'm fed up with you being so sure about yourself!

Block him then.

To be fair to BFTP he is only highlighting the PM flow upto mid month, which is what the models are currently indicating.

If he was predicting the next ice age I am sure you would be happy to hear his opinion all the time.

[SnowObsessor90]

Well I suppose it could be worse, in all honestly I was fearful of a full flip to zonal which thankfully hasn't happened, yet...

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

i'm fed up with you being so sure about yourself!

LOL, jeez relax your give yourself a hernia lol

[cyclonic happiness]

It's good to see the latest meto update, the winter of 2010 started with the meto hinting at the great things to come, I'm sure the details about precipitation shall become clearer with time, so dry = safe.

[Vertical Limit]

Todays outlook certainly shows signs of promise, ties in with thoughts of some of the folk here and in view of the potential cold synoptics mentioned for week 4 and into December, I thought I would look back in the archive and see what the Met outlook said on this day 2 years ago. .

UK Outlook for Sunday 21 Nov 2010 to Sunday 5 Dec 2010:

The trend is for generally more settled weather to spread across the UK during this period at the end of November and the start of December. Although rainfall may be somewhat above average in central and southern parts at first, it is likely to become near or below average everywhere during the first week of the period. With clear skies and winds perhaps lighter than normal, it looks as though temperatures will be often below average. There is also likely to be less sunshine than usual for many parts of the UK later in the period, the best of the brighter weather in northern areas.

Updated: 1144 on Sat 6 Nov 2010

[feb1991blizzard]

Todays outlook certainly shows signs of promise, ties in with thoughts of some of the folk here and in view of the potential cold synoptics mentioned for week 4 and into December, I thought I would look back in the archive and see what the Met outlook said on this day 2 years ago. .

UK Outlook for Sunday 21 Nov 2010 to Sunday 5 Dec 2010:

The trend is for generally more settled weather to spread across the UK during this period at the end of November and the start of December. Although rainfall may be somewhat above average in central and southern parts at first, it is likely to become near or below average everywhere during the first week of the period. With clear skies and winds perhaps lighter than normal, it looks as though temperatures will be often below average. There is also likely to be less sunshine than usual for many parts of the UK later in the period, the best of the brighter weather in northern areas.

Updated: 1144 on Sat 6 Nov 2010

I thought they had came completely off the fence by then, at what point did they start to mention well below average with sleet and snow for many areas then?

[Mark Neal.]

It'll be the opposite then......no kidding, just interesting re blocking in their thoughts....I think though that the general consensus is pm and rPM flow for up to and just beyond mid month.

BFTP

Interesting, i like how confident you are by what you have been saying and continue to stay with it. I guess we will know in the coming weeks who is right when the weather comes to fruition to begin December..

[Methuselah]

TBH, I don't think anyone knows?

[Vertical Limit]

I thought they had came completely off the fence by then, at what point did they start to mention well below average with sleet and snow for many areas then?

It wasn't until around the 9th / 10th that they started to suggest a wintry incursion into the North East.

If you scroll back to page 11 of this topic, you can see their updates.

Regards

VL

[feb1991blizzard]

It wasn't until around the 9th / 10th that they started to suggest a wintry incursion into the North East.

If you scroll back to page 11 of this topic, you can see their updates.

Regards

VL

cheers.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 22 Nov 2012 to Thursday 6 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the changeable conditions will continue through the start of this forecast period. Rainfall amounts are more likely to be above the seasonal average rather than below, especially across England and Wales. There is also a signal for temperatures to be close to or just below the seasonal average. Towards the latter part of the period, there are some suggestions that conditions will turn drier with more in the way of sunshine, but also colder, with temperatures well below the seasonal average. This will give a greater risk of overnight frosts.

Updated: 1134 on Wed 7 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Great Plum]

Thank you Stuart for posting... I see that they are sticking (as expected) with the possibility of temperatures 'well below the seasonal average...)

[feb1991blizzard]

Thank you Stuart for posting... I see that they are sticking (as expected) with the possibility of temperatures 'well below the seasonal average...)

They will almost certainly stick with that now until friday.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Thank you Stuart for posting... I see that they are sticking (as expected) with the possibility of temperatures 'well below the seasonal average...)

They would look a right load of muppets changing it only 24 hours after updating it

[Great Plum]

They would look a right load of muppets changing it only 24 hours after updating it

It's happened before!

[Methuselah]

It's happened before!

Aye. It has. But it's not often it's the Met office; it's more frequently those as want to see their names in lights...