METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[Barry12]

If the Met carry on saying it will be well below then thats who I will believe. They predicted the cold temperatures at the end of November/start of December 2010 by the 5th Novmber.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

If the Met carry on saying it will be well below then thats who I will believe. They predicted the cold temperatures at the end of November/start of December 2010 by the 5th Novmber.

Too right, they are the pro's after all, they have a massive budget and super computers so I always look to them to show me the way LOL, of course though even they cannot be right 100% of the time

[Methuselah]

If the Met carry on saying it will be well below then thats who I will believe. They predicted the cold temperatures at the end of November/start of December 2010 by the 5th Novmber.

But they're not saying that it will, Barry - they're merely pointing-out that current indications are suggesting that it might...

[cyclonic happiness]

I think deep down, everyone always feels alot more re-assured when the Met office is saying these sorts of things, even if they usually take more notice of other forecasters and methods, I know I do!

[Don]

But they're not saying that it will, Barry - they're merely pointing-out that current indications are suggesting that it might...

Yes and at this range all they can go by is current indications. However, they started mentioning the chance of very cold conditions for late November/December 2010 long before anything started showing up in the models (the models we have access to anyway!). Although to be fair the CFS had been strongly pointing towards a very cold December for some time. We wil see...

Edited November 7, 2012 by Don

[Barry12]

If there still saying this in 2 weeks time, I will start to get excited

[arcticadventurer]

yes I am expecting to see the term 'bitterly cold easterly or north easterly winds with showers of Hail Sleet and Snow prolonged and heavy at times' in the very near future.

Edited November 7, 2012 by arcticadventurer

[syed2878]

guys im quite sure that the met have alot mor data to play with then we do and the met's been going on about below avrage temps for nov since the end of oct and now they going for well below temps for end of nov and start of dec. Personally im mor inclined to go with the met and gp's current thorts, they sound incurraging.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

It's unusual for them to mention it might be well below average for their 16-30 day forecast as they have been a lot more vague in recent months at this range. It's certainly promising for.coldies. I would say by this time next week we will have a good idea about a potential cold blast. I've been waiting for Mid Nov when the magic date of Nov 26 is no longer in FI - that being the date the cold Nov 2010 properly kicked in.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 23 Nov 2012 to Friday 7 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the changeable conditions will continue through the start of this forecast period. Rainfall amounts are more likely to be above the seasonal average rather than below, especially across England and Wales. There is also a signal for temperatures to be close to or just below the seasonal average. Towards the latter part of the period, there are some suggestions that conditions will turn drier with more in the way of sunshine, but also colder, with temperatures well below the seasonal average. This will give a greater risk of overnight frosts.

Updated: 1139 on Thu 8 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Nov 2012 to Saturday 8 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the changeable conditions will continue through the start of this forecast period. There is also a signal for temperatures to be close to or just below the seasonal average. Into December, although there are no strong indications that any particular weather type is going to dominate, on balance colder, drier conditions are favoured, rather than milder, wetter weather, especially across the southern half of the UK.

Updated: 1059 on Fri 9 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[UV-RAY]

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Nov 2012 to Saturday 8 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the changeable conditions will continue through the start of this forecast period. There is also a signal for temperatures to be close to or just below the seasonal average. Into December, although there are no strong indications that any particular weather type is going to dominate, on balance colder, drier conditions are favoured, rather than milder, wetter weather, especially across the southern half of the UK.

Updated: 1059 on Fri 9 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Some will class this as a downgrade from previous updates, Im not so sure it is though, with the uncertainty showing in the models I would say it's a good forecast. Edited November 9, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[Don]

Some will class this as a downgrade from previous updates, Im not so sure it is though, with the uncertainty showing in the models I would say it's a good forecast.

From that update it appears that the Met Office feel that the signal for colder weather later in the month has weakened somewhat but still favour this as the more likely outcome at the moment? However, I would still say it's a step backwards?

Edited November 9, 2012 by Don

[syed2878]

i would agree with that though it's a good forecast it is a kind of a step back.

[Gibby]

From that update it appears that the Met Office feel that the signal for colder weather later in the month has weakened somewhat but still favour this as the more likely outcome at the moment? However, I would still say it's a step backwards?

This update is exactly how I thought it would be diluted down today as I mentioned in my comments last night and to those looking for snow it is a downgrade. The colder weather hinted at for the South looks like a suggestion of mid level high pressure blocking near to the UK rather than a cold Siberian Easterly or an Arctic Northerly. Of course a mid level block near to the UK might not be a bad thing as it gets us out of the current rut and it just may migrate to somewhere more favourable further down the line.

[phil nw.]

This update is exactly how I thought it would be diluted down today as I mentioned in my comments last night and to those looking for snow it is a downgrade. The colder weather hinted at for the South looks like a suggestion of mid level high pressure blocking near to the UK rather than a cold Siberian Easterly or an Arctic Northerly. Of course a mid level block near to the UK might not be a bad thing as it gets us out of the current rut and it just may migrate to somewhere more favourable further down the line.

Yes it does look something like along those lines Gibby.

Either our trough could split with pressure rising across the uk leaving some low heights further south or heights will simply rise from the south and the trough retreat north.

Cold lovers would prefer the first option i would think with some energy under the block-a chance for some further undercutting later pushing the High to that more "favourable" position.

All speculation of course but it does seem the Met are considering the chance of some form of pattern change in the later period

Edited November 9, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Nov 2012 to Sunday 9 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the changeable conditions will continue through the start of this forecast period. There is also a signal for temperatures to be close to or just below the seasonal average. Into December, although there are no strong indications that any particular weather type is going to dominate, on balance colder, drier conditions than at present are favoured, rather than milder, wetter weather, especially across the southern half of the UK.

Updated: 1205 on Sat 10 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 26 Nov 2012 to Monday 10 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the changeable conditions will continue through the start of this forecast period. There is also a signal for temperatures to be close to or just below the seasonal average. Into December, although there are no strong indications that any particular weather type is going to dominate, on balance colder, drier conditions than at present are favoured, rather than milder, wetter weather, especially across the southern half of the UK.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=regionalForecast

[Polar Maritime]

Are you sure it's updated Gav ?

[Summer Sun]

Are you sure it's updated Gav ?

Was updated at 02:42 according to the new met office site

[Terminal Moraine]

Are you sure it's updated Gav ?

These forecasts do tend to be very repetitious. Perhaps it would be better if they only updated when something changed or was likely to change, that way if one appeared there would be more interest in it.

[Polar Maritime]

These forecasts do tend to be very repetitious. Perhaps it would be better if they only updated when something changed or was likely to change, that way if one appeared there would be more interest in it.

I agree TM, an update should be a change to the forecast period.. Not endless repeats of the same.

[Summer Sun]

The met office have decided to update the outlooks now its says it was updated at 11:59 but it most certainly wasn't

UK Outlook for Monday 26 Nov 2012 to Monday 10 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the changeable conditions will continue through the start of this forecast period. There is also a signal for temperatures to be close to or just below the seasonal average. Into December, although there are no strong indications that any particular weather type is going to dominate, on balance colder, drier conditions than at present are favoured, rather than milder, wetter weather, especially across the southern half of the UK.

Updated: 1159 on Sun 11 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Edited November 11, 2012 by Gavin.

[Polar Maritime]

[Eskimo]

Now now PM, patience is a virtue!