METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[Terminal Moraine]

I think we can conlude from that, that at our elevation there could well be several short lived snow events interspersed with periods of rain and milder weather.

[Polar Maritime]

I think we can conlude from that, that at our elevation there could well be several short lived snow events interspersed with periods of rain and milder weather.

Yes TM, I agree... Keeping the high uncertainty in mind.

Edited December 9, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[feb1991blizzard]

I think they are as clueless as the rest of us, the block to our East is causing all sorts of problems for forecasters.

Yes but even the 6-15 dayer does not sound promising, they dont mention uncertainty anymore, looks like the reality is looking even worse than it was yesterday, not better, surely they would mention the possiblity of cold continental air reching us again if there was any signal at all, they have now took the word snow out of this forecast, John Holmes has assured this forum on many occasions that they do not take into account whether the press will exaggerate any possibility / severity of any cold or snow when writing their forecasts, they only go on data available at that point, so any notion that they may be downplaying on the basis of a fear factor being created in the run up to xmas does not hold sway either, a critical EC 32 coming up on monday night, we need to see a big upgrade in that or its bust.

THE LASTES GEFS SUITE IS AN ABSOLUTE STINKER GIVING WEIGHT TO THE MET OFFICE 6-30 dayer.

Edited December 9, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I wouldn't get overtly concerned to what the MET Office are predicting for Christmas, because they were forecasting a possible easterly last week. The position of the UK sitting right between the Atlantic and the massive continental block has even the most powerful computer running round in circles right now. A nightmare for the pros to forecast but great fun for casual observers like me! What to put on Countryfile for their Friday output? Definitely worth tuning in for..

I would take a look at their own "Snow at Christmas" page before heading off to the bookies to put your money on a White Christmas.

http://www.metoffice...ow-at-christmas

Edited December 9, 2012 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[carinthian]

A big change in thoughts for todays update. In all fairness to the UKMO, they never really got to excited regarding the Easterly forecast for this week and kept the ramping at bay, although some professional reports to the national newspapers were possibilty mis- lead regarding the" Beast from the East "histeria.

Personally, I think these forecasts are not very well presented by the Met Office and vague to say the least. I think many people on this Netweather site could do better !

C

[EML Network]

Yes the Met Office update does not make good reading from a cold lovers perspective, I suspect that we will now have to endure yet another rubbish festive season with a distinct lack of anything cold on the horizon until after XMAS.

All open to change of course, but I just can't see a return to anything even remotely cold for a good few weeks now.

I'm beginning to wonder if we'll ever see a White Xmas in this country , I've been alive for 35 years and have never seen snow lying on the ground here on XMas day !

Edited December 9, 2012 by EML Network

[Summer Sun]

I'm beginning to wonder if we'll ever see a White Xmas in this country , I've been alive for 35 years and have never seen snow lying on the ground here on XMas day !

We've been lucky up here we had 2 in 2 years (2009 & 2010)

As for today's Meto update there is every chance its not been based on today's 06z run which is looking better, if we get a good 12z and 18z tonight then maybe we'll see the wording change again tomorrow

[arcticadventurer]

Yes the Met Office update does not make good reading from a cold lovers perspective, I suspect that we will now have to endure yet another rubbish festive season with a distinct lack of anything cold on the horizon until after XMAS.

All open to change of course, but I just can't see a return to anything even remotely cold for a good few weeks now.

I'm beginning to wonder if we'll ever see a White Xmas in this country , I've been alive for 35 years and have never seen snow lying on the ground here on XMas day !

Not even Christmas Day 2010

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 25 Dec 2012 to Tuesday 8 Jan 2013:

There is a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast, but there are indications of more unsettled weather during this period. Temperatures will generally be a little below average for the time of year, although they may recover to nearer normal by the New Year. The signal for rain and snowfall amounts and distribution shows a high degree of uncertainty. On balance, it seems most likely that many areas will receive average amounts of rain.

Updated: 1144 on Mon 10 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 26 Dec 2012 to Wednesday 9 Jan 2013:

Mid-December's rather changeable weather conditions are thought likely to persist through the last few days of December with low pressure expected to be dominant near the British Isles. The north of the UK is most likely to see colder-than-average conditions in late December and perhaps early January, with relatively typical amounts of rainfall. During the same period, temperatures over the south are likely to be closer to average whilst rainfall amounts may be a little above average. Uncertainty then increases significantly into the final week of the period, with no clear weather type favoured, perhaps indicating less unsettled conditions.

Updated: 1227 on Tue 11 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[AWD]

Mmmmm....... Whilst nothing to get excited about from a cold perspective still for most, I take that as a step in the right direction compared to the previous forecast.

Below average temps in the north suggestive of possible snowfall here over the Christmas period, then a change of pattern possibly being hinted at come the new year, with no one weather pattern currently more likely than the other at this stage.

But favouring less unsettled conditions must mean higher pressure starting to influence our area. It all, of course, comes down to where this pressure rise takes place.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 27 Dec 2012 to Thursday 10 Jan 2013:

Mid-December's rather changeable weather conditions are thought likely to persist through the last few days of December with low pressure expected to be dominant near the British Isles. The north of the UK is most likely to see colder-than-average conditions in late December and perhaps early January, with relatively typical amounts of rainfall. During the same period, temperatures over the south are likely to be closer to average whilst rainfall amounts may be a little above average. Uncertainty then increases significantly into the final week of the period, with no clear weather type favoured, perhaps indicating less unsettled conditions.

Updated: 1150 on Wed 12 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 28 Dec 2012 to Friday 11 Jan 2013:

Mid-December's rather changeable weather conditions are thought likely to persist through the last few days of December with low pressure expected to be dominant near the British Isles. The north of the UK is most likely to see colder-than-average conditions in late December and perhaps early January, with relatively typical amounts of rainfall. During the same period, temperatures over the south are likely to be closer to average whilst rainfall amounts may be a little above average. Uncertainty then increases significantly into the final week of the period, with no clear weather type favoured, perhaps indicating less unsettled conditions.

Updated: 1135 on Thu 13 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[AWD]

If your from the north of the UK the that doesn't sound too bad.

Not great, but not horrific either.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Dec 2012 to Saturday 12 Jan 2013:

Mid-December's rather changeable weather conditions are likely to persist through the last few days of December with low pressure expected to be dominant near the British Isles. The north of the UK is most likely to see colder than average conditions, with relatively typical amounts of rainfall. During the same period, temperatures over the south are likely to be closer to average whilst rainfall amounts may be a little above average. Uncertainty then increases significantly into the final week of the period, with no clear weather type favoured, perhaps indicating less unsettled conditions.

Updated: 1204 on Fri 14 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 30 Dec 2012 to Sunday 13 Jan 2013:

Mid-December's rather changeable weather conditions are likely to persist through the last few days of December with low pressure expected to be dominant near the British Isles. The north of the UK is most likely to see colder than average conditions, with relatively typical amounts of rainfall. During the same period, temperatures over the south are likely to be closer to average whilst rainfall amounts may be a little above average. Uncertainty then increases significantly into the final week of the period, with no clear weather type favoured, perhaps indicating less unsettled conditions.

Updated: 1201 on Sat 15 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

As you were no change today

UK Outlook for Monday 31 Dec 2012 to Monday 14 Jan 2013:

Mid-December's rather changeable weather conditions are likely to persist through the last few days of December with low pressure expected to be dominant near the British Isles. The north of the UK is most likely to see colder than average conditions, with relatively typical amounts of rainfall. During the same period, temperatures over the south are likely to be closer to average whilst rainfall amounts may be a little above average. Uncertainty then increases significantly into the final week of the period, with no clear weather type favoured, perhaps indicating less unsettled conditions.

Updated: 1145 on Sun 16 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2013 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2013:

The rather changeable weather is likely to persist into the begining of January with low pressure expected to be dominant near the British Isles. The north of the UK is most likely to see colder than average conditions, with relatively typical amounts of rainfall. During the same period, temperatures over the south are likely to be closer to average whilst rainfall amounts may be a little above average. Uncertainty then increases significantly into the final week of the period, with no clear weather type favoured, perhaps indicating less unsettled conditions.

Updated: 1132 on Mon 17 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Jan 2013 to Wednesday 16 Jan 2013:

Rather unsettled weather is likely to persist into the first half of January, with low pressure expected to be dominant near the British Isles. The north of the UK is most likely to see colder than average conditions initially, perhaps becoming nearer-average towards mid-month, with relatively typical amounts of rainfall throughout. During the same period, temperatures over the south are likely to be closer to average or perhaps even a little above normal at times, with rainfall amounts for the period as a whole likely to be a little above average.

Updated: 1159 on Tue 18 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[feb1991blizzard]

Very underwhelming, lets hope it picks up and they at least start mentioning the possibility of something better after Thursday nights run.

Edited December 18, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Don]

Very underwhelming, lets hope it picks up and they at least start mentioning the possibility of something better after Thursday nights run.

I agree, nothing interesting whatsoever in today's update and is looking rather similar to last year!

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Jan 2013 to Wednesday 16 Jan 2013:

Rather unsettled weather is likely to persist into the first half of January, with low pressure expected to be dominant near the British Isles. The north of the UK is most likely to see colder than average conditions initially, perhaps becoming nearer-average towards mid-month, with relatively typical amounts of rainfall throughout. During the same period, temperatures over the south are likely to be closer to average or perhaps even a little above normal at times, with rainfall amounts for the period as a whole likely to be a little above average.

Updated: 1159 on Tue 18 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

This update is pretty much the same as this time last years

UK Outlook for Monday 2 Jan 2012 to Monday 16 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern parts. As a result temperatures will often be around average or slightly above. However, this does not preclude some shorter colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, chiefly in the north. Precipitation amounts will be near-normal for much of the UK, but above in the far north, with snow most favoured on high ground here. Sunshine amounts will be around or slightly above average across the UK, with the east perhaps a little brighter.

Updated: 1159 on Sun 18 Dec 2011

[Don]

This update is pretty much the same as this time last years

UK Outlook for Monday 2 Jan 2012 to Monday 16 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern parts. As a result temperatures will often be around average or slightly above. However, this does not preclude some shorter colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, chiefly in the north. Precipitation amounts will be near-normal for much of the UK, but above in the far north, with snow most favoured on high ground here. Sunshine amounts will be around or slightly above average across the UK, with the east perhaps a little brighter.

Updated: 1159 on Sun 18 Dec 2011

Just as I thought! Oh well....

Edited December 18, 2012 by Don

[UV-RAY]

This update is pretty much the same as this time last years

UK Outlook for Monday 2 Jan 2012 to Monday 16 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern parts. As a result temperatures will often be around average or slightly above. However, this does not preclude some shorter colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, chiefly in the north. Precipitation amounts will be near-normal for much of the UK, but above in the far north, with snow most favoured on high ground here. Sunshine amounts will be around or slightly above average across the UK, with the east perhaps a little brighter.

Updated: 1159 on Sun 18 Dec 2011

Maybe those LRF models are onto something, I did say yesterday January has a look of December 2011. Lets hope they aren't or we will be counting down the days to spring.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 3 Jan 2013 to Thursday 17 Jan 2013:

Rather unsettled weather is likely to persist into the first half of January, with low pressure expected to be dominant near the British Isles. The north of the UK is most likely to see colder than average conditions initially, perhaps becoming nearer-average towards mid-month, with relatively typical amounts of rainfall throughout. During the same period, temperatures over the south are likely to be closer to average or perhaps even a little above normal at times, with rainfall amounts for the period as a whole likely to be a little above average.

Updated: 1135 on Wed 19 Dec 2012

Colder in the north maybe near average around mid month mildest in the south

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html