METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[Weathizard]

Interesting that uncertainty is now being mentioned, obviously at this range there will always be uncertainty but something must have changed in their mind. Interesting..perhaps there longer range models are starting to sniff something?

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Jan 2013 to Monday 28 Jan 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty through this forecast period, though it looks likely to start with fairly average climatological conditions, meaning the south and and east of the UK will see the driest and brightest weather, while the north and west will tend to be more unsettled. However, there could be some rain at times anywhere across the UK. Temperatures will tend to be close to average for the time of year. Later, some marked changes of weather-type are possible, and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases.

Updated: 1047 on Sun 30 Dec

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Jan 2013 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty through this forecast period, though it looks likely to start with fairly average climatological conditions, meaning the south and east of the UK will see the driest and brightest weather, while the north and west will tend to be more unsettled. However, there could be some rain at times anywhere across the UK. Temperatures will tend to be close to average for the time of year. Later, some marked changes of weather-type are possible, and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases.

Updated: 1039 on Mon 31 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Peter H]

BBC monthly outlook:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Monday 14 January—Sunday 27 January

Turning colder towards the end of the month?

Even for a long range forecast, the degree of uncertainty in the weather forecast for the second half of January is relatively high. That said, present indications do suggest that southern and eastern areas of the UK will stay relatively dry and mild, with the more wet and windy conditions largely confined to northwestern areas. There are also some indications that we could see a return to much colder weather as January draws to a close.

Next week

Will we see a spell of cold weather early in February?

[Dorsetbred]

Doesn't really suggest too much:

un·cer·tain·ty

[uhn-sur-tn-tee] doubt; hesitancy:

Sorta says all really.

THE STATE OF BEING UNCERTAIN

So who knows....

Edited December 31, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[feb1991blizzard]

I know people will criticise me for saying this but i would like to see a decent EC 32 dayer tonight, we may not hear about it very quickly though unless people stay in or tweet ****** up tommorow morning!!!

[Don]

BBC monthly outlook:

http://www.bbc.co.uk...2635167#outlook

That outlook looks rather like RJS's, mild for the most part until possilbly the end of the month.

[UV-RAY]

That outlook looks rather like RJS's, mild for the most part until possilbly the end of the month.

Indeed, if anyone should be having praise heaped upon them, then it should be Roger, his forecast is spot on up until now.

[Don]

Indeed, if anyone should be having praise heaped upon them, then it should be Roger, his forecast is spot on up until now.

Well lets hope that his February forecast ends up being close to the mark. If this is the case, I don't think many of us will be complaining come March!

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Jan 2013 to Wednesday 30 Jan 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty through this forecast period, though it looks likely to start with fairly average climatological conditions, meaning the south and east of the UK will see the driest and brightest weather, while the north and west will tend to be more unsettled. However, there could be some rain at times anywhere across the UK. Temperatures will tend to often be close to average for the time of year to begin with. Then, later, there is an increasing risk of more marked changes of weather-type occurring, and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions and wintry weather increases relative to late December and early January.

Updated: 1142 on Tue 1 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

A better outlook for coldies today

[UV-RAY]

An upgrade from the MetO, I'm starting to get interested now.

[AWD]

Isn't it similar to the previous few updates, just worded slightly different?

[bluearmy]

A better outlook for coldies today

Same as the 4am update which could not have used the ecm 32 dayer in detail? (Not sure when the ens complete).

I think the ref wintry wrt to late dec/early jan is not an upgrade as this was a very unwintry period.

Looks like a 'holding update' to me as they have recently. Its as though they dont believe the ecm 32 dayer due to the possible ramifications from the SSW.

[UV-RAY]

Same as the 4am update which could not have used the ecm 32 dayer in detail? (Not sure when the ens complete).

I think the ref wintry wrt to late dec/early jan is not an upgrade as this was a very unwintry period.

Looks like a 'holding update' to me as they have recently. Its as though they dont believe the ecm 32 dayer due to the possible ramifications from the SSW.

The wording isn't great but it's definitely an upgrade with regards to "wintry weather". I'll take that as the outlook has been dire for weeks.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 17 Jan 2013 to Thursday 31 Jan 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty through this forecast period, though it looks likely to start with fairly average climatological conditions, meaning the south and east of the UK will see the driest and brightest weather, while the north and west will tend to be more unsettled. However, there could be some rain at times anywhere across the UK. Temperatures will tend to often be close to average for the time of year to begin with. Then, later, there is an increasing risk of more marked changes of weather-type occurring, and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions and wintry weather increases relative to late December and early January.

Updated: 1120 on Wed 2 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Mezz20]

I know that a lot of people dislike the cold weather, but it just doesn't feel right without at least a touch of cold before the winters through. I like to watch the charts and see the cold come in, but it sure is elusive this year. A could pf days of snow and I would be happy as would a lot of my fellow snow watchers. I just hope we aren't disappointed this year.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 18 Jan 2013 to Friday 1 Feb 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty through this forecast period, though it looks likely to start with fairly average climatological conditions, meaning the south and east of the UK will see the driest and brightest weather, while the north and west will tend to be more unsettled. However, there could be some rain at times anywhere across the UK. Temperatures will tend to often be close to average for the time of year to begin with. Then, later, there is an increasing risk of more marked changes of weather-type occurring, and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions and wintry weather increases relative to early January.

Updated: 1138 on Thu 3 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Jan 2013 to Saturday 2 Feb 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty throughout this forecast period, though there is an increasing probability at this stage of a trend to colder conditions relative to what we have seen so far this winter. This brings the risk of spells of colder than average conditions and an increased chance of wintry weather, especially across northern and eastern areas of the UK.

Updated: 1205 on Fri 4 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[UV-RAY]

Another upgrade on previous updates.

[Don]

Another upgrade on previous updates.

Fingers crossed!

[AWD]

Easterly/North Easterly?

[Village]

Northeasterly

[feb1991blizzard]

As good as can be expected at this range, i do have this niggling doubt at the back of my mind that the starting point (just before E/NE flow developes / potentially developes), is even less favourable (although massively positive) than the Dec episode, i just have a feeling that the Atlantic troughing could start to engage scandi troughing to early and far North and cause the whole thing to go wrong again, the trough to the west has been a recurring feature this winter, the point im making is that the high needs to span more horizontally to give more leeway and be as far West as possible to give as much leeway as possible for downgrades, a pressure rise to the North of us is now inevitable IMO, its just whether the minute detail favours us, that said, with the strat the way it is, we would have to be unlucky not to get some sort of cold / snowy spell, perhaps we will see the EC32 (and subsequent MO updates) upgrade this time after starting slowly rather than show a cracker only to collapse at 120!!!

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2013 to Sunday 3 Feb 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty throughout this forecast period, though there is an increasing probability of a trend to colder conditions relative to what we have seen so far this winter. This brings the risk of spells of colder than average conditions and wintry weather, especially across northern and eastern areas of the UK.

Updated: 1138 on Sat 5 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html