METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[Stuart]

Thanks Gavin doing them i been busy

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 4 Jan 2013 to Friday 18 Jan 2013:

Rather unsettled weather is likely to persist into the first half of January, with low pressure expected to be dominant near the British Isles. The north of the UK is most likely to see colder than average conditions initially, perhaps becoming nearer-average towards mid-month, with relatively typical amounts of rainfall throughout. During the same period, temperatures over the south are likely to be closer to average or perhaps even a little above normal at times, with rainfall amounts for the period as a whole likely to be a little above average.

Updated: 1137 on Thu 20 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[UV-RAY]

Still no sign of the much touted SSW, until these updates change any suggestions of a cold January remain on ice.

Edited December 20, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[Neiller22]

Meto going for colder than average to perhaps near average temps in the north!! Doesn't sound like a suspected cold plunge from mid January if u ask me!!! In fact trending the other way!! Hope it's wrong or things ain't looking good. Thank god I'm going to New England in feb!!!

[AWD]

The Meto only generally change their 16-30 day outlook on the back of their EC 32 day & MOGREPS ensemble runs, which are Tuesday & Friday IIRC.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

These met updates change more times than a hoe's knickers though, I tend not to take much notice of them nowadays.

[Neiller22]

Yeah I think u are probably right in that respect. Wouldn't like their laundry bill for all those changed knickers!!! You wonder why they even bother with it in that case. Anyway lets remain positive and hope that a quick change is just around the corner and they have a box full of knickers on standby!! I'm off for a beer!!

[johnholmes]

If they change some of you complain, if they don't change some of you complain.

The 16-30 has not changed since 17 December, then it was a slight adjustment.

As a forecaster I think what they produce, other than the repetitive nature of them sometimes, and I explained this a year ago as to why, they are as good indeed better than any other that tries this length of prediction. Mind you it should be.

[syed2878]

i would take the mets forecasts than any wish or hope casting. The met have alot mor data to play with then we have here. Yes the met does get it wrong but they r more right then wrong.

[Neiller22]

Yep! What will be will be. It is the uk !!

[UV-RAY]

If they change some of you complain, if they don't change some of you complain.

The 16-30 has not changed since 17 December, then it was a slight adjustment.

As a forecaster I think what they produce, other than the repetitive nature of them sometimes, and I explained this a year ago as to why, they are as good indeed better than any other that tries this length of prediction. Mind you it should be.

That's my only gripe John, the repetiviness. I just wished they did a weekly update, other than that I find them better than the so called self appointed experts, which there are many it seems.

[Methuselah]

If they change some of you complain, if they don't change some of you complain.

The 16-30 has not changed since 17 December, then it was a slight adjustment.

As a forecaster I think what they produce, other than the repetitive nature of them sometimes, and I explained this a year ago as to why, they are as good indeed better than any other that tries this length of prediction. Mind you it should be.

Do you ever wonder why you bother, John?

[LomondSnowstorm]

I don't think there's any need for a major argument over this. The Met Office have published their daily forecast, it is a pretty good indicator of the next 30 days broadly but equally, like all forecasts, it is far from infallible. Up to the start of January we have a broad consensus for a very cyclonic pattern to set up with the possibility of colder interludes, particularly in the north. After that confidence is much sketchier, and while there are signs that we could see a pattern change into January driven by the MJO and eventually stratospheric forcing the timing on this is very much uncertain. The Met Office did not say that 'there will be no cold in January', they merely say that, at present, the evidence available shows a signal for average temperatures for the first half. It's another very useful insight to have and should certainly be taken into account but equally we shouldn't take any forecast or model output as a statement of fact and we certainly shouldn't get angry if they don't pan out or don't appear to be panning out.

[tollgateiow]

This is what the UKMO were predicting on 6th December for the period we are just entering, just about the opposite of what we are getting and about to get I would say. So hopefully their current predictions will be wrong too! I know it doesn't always work like that but you can but hope....

UK Outlook for Friday 21 Dec 2012 to Friday 4 Jan 2013:

Temperatures by both day and night are most likely to be below average during this period, with a greater incidence of overnight frost and, at times, fog or freezing fog. The signal for rain and snowfall amounts during this period shows a high degree of uncertainty, however, on balance, slightly drier conditions compared to average are favoured for most of the UK. Even though there is a drier-than-average signal for much of the UK, where precipitation does occur, there is a greater chance that it will fall as snow compared to normal.

Updated: 1136 on Thu 6 Dec 2012

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

This is what the UKMO were predicting on 6th December for the period we are just entering, just about the opposite of what we are getting and about to get I would say. So hopefully their current predictions will be wrong too! I know it doesn't always work like that but you can but hope....

UK Outlook for Friday 21 Dec 2012 to Friday 4 Jan 2013:

Temperatures by both day and night are most likely to be below average during this period, with a greater incidence of overnight frost and, at times, fog or freezing fog. The signal for rain and snowfall amounts during this period shows a high degree of uncertainty, however, on balance, slightly drier conditions compared to average are favoured for most of the UK. Even though there is a drier-than-average signal for much of the UK, where precipitation does occur, there is a greater chance that it will fall as snow compared to normal.

Updated: 1136 on Thu 6 Dec 2012

I wish

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 5 Jan 2013 to Saturday 19 Jan 2013:

Rather unsettled weather is likely to persist into the first half of January, with low pressure expected to be dominant near the British Isles bringing further spells of wet and windy weather to most regions. Rainfall amounts are then expected to remain above average for parts of England and Wales whilst temperatures are likely to often be close to or a little above average. Later in this forecast period there is greater than average uncertainty though some marked changes of weather type are possible and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases.

Updated: 1259 on Fri 21 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Edited December 21, 2012 by Gavin.

[AWD]

At least that should cheer up the people glued to these forecasts from the Meto a little.

Looks increasingly likely the next rollercoaster will depart Mid January then.

[Cleeve Hill]

Thats more like it. A bit of Christmas Cheer.

[Glacier Point]

and contradicts the guidance from the principal tool normally used in the preparation of this outlook.

Edited December 21, 2012 by Glacier Point

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

and contradicts the guidance from the principal tool used in the preparation of this outlook.

The principal tool being the model discussion thread?

[Don]

The best 16-30 day update for a little while....... For coldies of course!

Edited December 21, 2012 by Don

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The best 16-30 day update for a little while....... For coldies of course!

And quite easily it could be something different by this time next week, pinch and salt spring to mind.

[Bristawl Si]

This is what the UKMO were predicting on 6th December for the period we are just entering, just about the opposite of what we are getting and about to get I would say. So hopefully their current predictions will be wrong too! I know it doesn't always work like that but you can but hope....

UK Outlook for Friday 21 Dec 2012 to Friday 4 Jan 2013:

Temperatures by both day and night are most likely to be below average during this period, with a greater incidence of overnight frost and, at times, fog or freezing fog. The signal for rain and snowfall amounts during this period shows a high degree of uncertainty, however, on balance, slightly drier conditions compared to average are favoured for most of the UK. Even though there is a drier-than-average signal for much of the UK, where precipitation does occur, there is a greater chance that it will fall as snow compared to normal.

Updated: 1136 on Thu 6 Dec 2012

Nice spot!

Yeah, exactly the opposite will occur!

[bluearmy]

and contradicts the guidance from the principal tool used in the preparation of this outlook.

the wording is very reminiscent of jan when the last strong warming came into view. can we get lucky ??

[492]

I wish

This is what the UKMO were predicting on 6th December for the period we are just entering, just about the opposite of what we are getting and about to get I would say. So hopefully their current predictions will be wrong too! I know it doesn't always work like that but you can but hope....

UK Outlook for Friday 21 Dec 2012 to Friday 4 Jan 2013:

Temperatures by both day and night are most likely to be below average during this period, with a greater incidence of overnight frost and, at times, fog or freezing fog. The signal for rain and snowfall amounts during this period shows a high degree of uncertainty, however, on balance, slightly drier conditions compared to average are favoured for most of the UK. Even though there is a drier-than-average signal for much of the UK, where precipitation does occur, there is a greater chance that it will fall as snow compared to normal.

Updated: 1136 on Thu 6 Dec 2012

Yes it is a bit wetter than their forecast suggested and a bit warmer. But it could be argued that on a global scale the forecast was reasonably accurate give or take 200 - 300 miles as condition over parts of Germany, Holland and Denmark are decidely cold today. Lets say it was close but not close enough to be of any benefit to the UK.