METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[feb1991blizzard]

I think that has settled a few nerves on this forum, as good as can be expected at that range, never be concerned with detail at this range, as long as cold is suggested then thats good enough for me, they are never going to commit themselves to forecasting severe cold / snow at this range and quite rightly.

[Don]

And quite easily it could be something different by this time next week, pinch and salt spring to mind.

Of course but at least it's a step in the right direction for now. Don't worry though, I'm not getting excited just yet!

[Don]

Looks increasingly likely the next rollercoaster will depart Mid January then.

Yes I've already purchased a ticket and managed to secure a front row seat. The winter 2012/13 theme park are offering a 10% discount if you book by the end of December! Apparantly this ride is going to be the biggest and baddest ever!

[LomondSnowstorm]

and contradicts the guidance from the principal tool normally used in the preparation of this outlook.

Yes, the faith they have in the ECM 32 dayer seems somewhat fleeting, the last ECM 32 dayer was apparently better for blocking and cold but they never made much of that. I must say that I'm glad that they're not slavishly repeating the latest model output and are actually taking all the evidence into account.

[UV-RAY]

A big step in the right direction, when we get to +48 and the models are still showing cold I'll start ramping, until then I remain unconvinced.

[johnholmes]

Yes, the faith they have in the ECM 32 dayer seems somewhat fleeting, the last ECM 32 dayer was apparently better for blocking and cold but they never made much of that. I must say that I'm glad that they're not slavishly repeating the latest model output and are actually taking all the evidence into account.

It would amaze me if anyone expected them to do anything other than 'taking all the evidence into account'!

[LomondSnowstorm]

It would amaze me if anyone expected them to do anything other than 'taking all the evidence into account'!

Yes, that would be a bit worrying! I think I worded that post poorly to be honest, just found it interesting that they added that when the ECM 32 dayer showed support for a less blocked outlook.

[pegg24]

I love snow and so do others on here we should just be patient. The weather in this country can change so quickly last week everybody was saying no more cold and this is another dissapoitining winter and now it has changed to cold again lets be honest nobody knows what will happen.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 6 Jan 2013 to Sunday 20 Jan 2013:

Rather unsettled weather is likely to persist into the first half of January, with low pressure expected to be dominant near the British Isles bringing further spells of wet and windy weather to most regions. Rainfall amounts are then expected to remain above average for parts of England and Wales whilst temperatures are likely to often be close to or a little above average. Later in this forecast period there is greater than average uncertainty though some marked changes of weather type are possible and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases.

Updated: 1134 on Sat 22 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 7 Jan 2013 to Monday 21 Jan 2013:

Rather unsettled weather is likely to persist during the first half of January, with low pressure expected to be dominant near the British Isles, bringing further spells of wet and windy weather to most regions. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain above average for parts of England and Wales, while temperatures are likely to often be close to or perhaps a little above average. Later in this forecast period there is greater than average uncertainty, though some marked changes of weather-type are possible and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases.

Updated: 1104 on Sun 23 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Great Plum]

This doesn't look Bartlett like thank goodness!

[Don]

This doesn't look Bartlett like thank goodness!

We just have to hope that the signal for a pattern change towards mid-Jan continues, because the model outlooks seem to be getting worse and worse with every run at the moment!

[bluearmy]

We just have to hope that the signal for a pattern change towards mid-Jan continues, because the model outlooks seem to be getting worse and worse with every run at the moment!

The only thing they can be referencing for the caveat is the trop response to the strat warming. They, like us, have no clue what that might be. without any other positive telecon info we have nowt else to hang any cold hats on !

[Don]

The only thing they can be referencing for the caveat is the trop response to the strat warming. They, like us, have no clue what that might be. without any other positive telecon info we have nowt else to hang any cold hats on !

At least we have the warming strat to give us some potential interest unlike a continuing cooling strat with no warming forecast like what was occuring at this time in December 2006 was it not? January 2007 then returned a very mild 7C but we had a cold snap late in the month which probably prevented it from being the mildest on record.

[damianslaw]

If we look back at this time in 2011 we were seeing quite similiar Meto forecasts, however, as we moved into early Jan the met seemed to pick up on a signal for colder settled conditions later in Jan and into Feb..

Our winters often deliver the coldest weather during the second half.. and this year I am expecting the same, winters such as 81/82, 96/97 and 10/11 were a departure from the norm in this respect.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 8 Jan 2013 to Tuesday 22 Jan 2013:

Rather unsettled weather is likely to persist during the first half of January, with low pressure expected to be dominant near the British Isles, bringing further spells of wet and windy weather to most regions. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain above average for most parts of England and Wales, while temperatures are likely to often be close to or perhaps a little above average. Later in this forecast period there is greater than average uncertainty, though some marked changes of weather-type are possible and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases.

Updated: 1119 on Mon 24 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Jan 2013 to Wednesday 23 Jan 2013:

Rather unsettled weather is likely to persist during the first half of January, with low pressure expected to be dominant near the British Isles, bringing further spells of wet and windy weather to most regions. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain above average for most parts of England and Wales, while temperatures are likely to often be close to or perhaps a little above average. Later in this forecast period there is greater than average uncertainty, though some marked changes of weather-type are possible and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases.

Updated: 1143 on Tue 25 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Peter H]

If we look back at this time in 2011 we were seeing quite similiar Meto forecasts, however, as we moved into early Jan the met seemed to pick up on a signal for colder settled conditions later in Jan and into Feb..

Which never made it to the west of the UK or Scotland.

We had an exceptionally mild, snowless, and largely frost free winter last year.

The models aren't looking particularly promising for this year either.

The only postive thing is that it's not just as mild as it was this time last year, so there's always hope at least, at this stage.

As I have said, we've had no significant snow since December 2010, which is quite a long time for these parts.

Edited December 25, 2012 by Peter H

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 10 Jan 2013 to Thursday 24 Jan 2013:

Rather unsettled weather is likely to persist during the first half of January, with further spells of wet and windy weather across some areas. Despite this, southern areas may experience longer spells of drier conditions with more in the way of brightness and lighter winds. Temperatures are likely to often be close to or perhaps a little above average. Later in this forecast period, there is greater than average uncertainty, though some marked changes of weather-type are possible and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases.

Updated: 1157 on Wed 26 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[John Badrick]

A bit more encouraging from the seasonal forecasts from the Met, especially for January. Plenty of uncertainties from there on...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/c ... mp-JFM.pdf

SUMMARY - TEMPERATURE:

For January as a whole below-average UK-mean temperatures are somewhat more likely than above-average, although there is considerable uncertainty. Similarly, snow and ice may occur more often than they do in an average January.

For February and March the range of possible outcomes is also very broad, although above-average UK-mean temperatures become more likely.

Overall, the probability that the UK-mean temperature for January-February-March will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 15% whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

CONTEXT:

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific remain in a neutral El Niňo/La Niňa phase, and this is expected to continue through the forecast period. This phase has no known predictive value for northwest Europe.

Meanwhile sea temperatures in the northwest Atlantic remain well above average. This is especially true around Newfoundland, where observations show that unusually high values – more than 4 degrees Celsius above average - extend to considerable depth. Around much of the Arctic, sea surface temperatures are also above average. Similarly, Arctic sea ice extent, although undergoing the usual winter-time increase, remains at a near-record low level for the time of year, with the Barents Sea northeast of Scandinavia showing a particularly large deficit. Although we are dealing here with an emerging area of scientific research there are suggestions that the aforementioned patterns can favour blocked weather types that bring cold northerly or easterly winds to northwest Europe.

Computer forecast models show considerable spread in their handling of the weather in the January-February-March period, although the new high resolution model just introduced at the Met Office, which exhibits more skill in forecast reruns for the past, favours cold conditions over warm during January.

Some model scenarios suggest that during January the UK could be the battleground between cold air of Scandinavian or Russian origins, and mild Atlantic air, meaning that substantial changes in weather type are quite possible, although equally one or other type could prevail. Some heavy snow can be expected at the boundary between the warm and cold air, although whether that would be over the UK is far from clear. As we move into February and March mild westerly or southwesterly winds become more likely, although cold outbreaks are still possible.

The forecast curves in Figure T2 reflect all of the above, showing a shift towards colder-than-average values for January, and a structure that is close to climatology for January-February-March as a whole. On the left panel of Figure T2 note also how the bulk of the pink forecast points lie below last year’s value (labelled 2012), suggesting a high probability that January will be colder than last year.

[Summer Sun]

No idea where Stuart is but until he returns I shall continue to update this thread

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Jan 2013 to Friday 25 Jan 2013:

Rather unsettled weather is likely to persist during the first half of January, with further spells of wet and windy weather across some areas. Despite this, southern areas may experience longer spells of drier conditions with more in the way of brightness and lighter winds. Temperatures are likely to often be close to or perhaps a little above average. Later in this forecast period, there is greater than average uncertainty, though some marked changes of weather-type are possible and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases.

Updated: 1159 on Thu 27 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[sebastiaan1973]

Thanks John, but what is the right link?

[Summer Sun]

Thanks John, but what is the right link?

Correct links are in the Media Thread -

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 12 Jan 2013 to Saturday 26 Jan 2013:

Rather unsettled weather is likely to persist during the first half of January, with further spells of wet and windy weather across some areas. Despite this, southern areas may experience longer spells of drier conditions with more in the way of brightness and lighter winds. Temperatures are likely to often be close to or perhaps a little above average. Later in this forecast period, there is greater than average uncertainty, though some marked changes of weather-type are possible and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases.

Updated: 1130 on Fri 28 Dec 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Jan 2013 to Sunday 27 Jan 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty through this forecast period, though it looks likely to start with fairly average climatological conditions, meaning the south and and east of the UK will see the driest and brightest weather, while the north and west will tend to be more unsettled. However, there could be some rain at times anywhere across the UK. Temperatures will tend to be close to average for the time of year. Later, some marked changes of weather-type are possible, and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases.

Updated: 1203 on Sat 29 Dec 2012