METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[AWD]

This conflicts with the 'temperatures may rise close to average at the end of the month' on the 6-15 day forecast!

That's what I thought too.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Feb 2013 to Friday 15 Feb 2013:

Colder than average conditions are favoured across many parts of the UK, especially in the north and east. Whilst there is no strong signal for rainfall patterns through this period, drier than average conditions are more likely in the north, whereas the south may have near or even slightly above average rainfall. The frequency of snow events through this period may be more than experienced so far this winter.

Updated: 1200 on Thu 17 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

This still goes again the other forecast the last line in the shorter range forecast says

there is a chance all areas may become less cold towards the end of the month. where as this one goes for Colder than average conditions are favoured across many parts of the UK

Edited January 17, 2013 by Gavin.

[Don]

This still goes again the other forecast the last line in the shorter range forecast says

there is a chance all areas may become less cold towards the end of the month. where as this one goes for Colder than average conditions are favoured across many parts of the UK

Perhaps they expect the less cold weather to be sort lived? RJS is also thinking of a less cold spell towards the end of the month before a re-load in February. Will be interesting to see what they say tomorrow after tonights EC32 Day update.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Don

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 2 Feb 2013 to Saturday 16 Feb 2013:

There is greater-than-average uncertainty throughout this period. The most likely scenario is for initially cold conditions in the east to be replaced for a time by less-cold conditions spreading in from the west. At present this is thought likely to be a temporary change in weather type however, as colder weather and below-average temperatures probably come to dominate once more towards mid-month. In terms of rain and snowfall, southern parts will probably start wetter than average, but trend to nearer normal by mid-month, while the north will probably see drier than average conditions throughout. Meanwhile, the frequency of snow events during this period may be greater than average.

Updated: 1259 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Feb 2013 to Sunday 17 Feb 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty throughout this period. The most likely scenario is for conditions at the start of this period to be less cold than at the moment but also on the unsettled side. However, colder weather and below average temperatures then probably come to dominate once more towards mid-month. In terms of rain and snowfall, southern parts in particularly will probably start wetter than average, but trend to nearer normal by mid-month, while the north will probably see drier than average conditions for much of the period. Meanwhile, the frequency of snow events during this period may be greater than average.

Updated: 1131 on Sat 19 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Edited January 19, 2013 by Gavin.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 4 Feb 2013 to Monday 18 Feb 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty throughout this period. The most likely scenario is for conditions at the start of this period to be less cold than at the moment but also on the unsettled side. However, colder weather and below average temperatures then probably come to dominate once more towards mid-month. In terms of rain and snowfall, southern parts in particular will probably start wetter than average, but trend to nearer normal by mid-month, while the north will probably see drier than average conditions for much of the period. Meanwhile, the frequency of snow events during this period may be greater than average.

Updated: 1200 on Sun 20 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Feb 2013 to Tuesday 19 Feb 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty throughout this period. The most likely scenario is for conditions at the start of this period to be less cold than at the moment but also on the unsettled side. However, colder weather and below average temperatures then probably come to dominate once more towards mid-month. In terms of rain and snowfall, southern parts in particular will probably start wetter than average, but trend to nearer normal by mid-month, while the north will probably see drier than average conditions for much of the period.

Updated: 1200 on Mon 21 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Feb 2013 to Wednesday 20 Feb 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty throughout this period. The most likely scenario is for conditions at the start of this period to be less cold than at the moment but also on the unsettled side. However, colder weather and below average temperatures then probably come to dominate once more towards mid-month. In terms of rain and snowfall, southern parts in particular will probably start wetter than average, but trend to nearer normal by mid-month, while the north will probably see drier than average conditions for much of the period.

Updated: 1207 on Tue 22 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 7 Feb 2013 to Thursday 21 Feb 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty throughout this period. The most likely scenario is for conditions at the start of this period to be less cold than at the moment but also on the unsettled side. In terms of rain and snowfall, southern parts in particular will probably start wetter than average, but trend to nearer normal by mid-month, while the north will probably see drier than average conditions for much of the period.

Updated: 1151 on Wed 23 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[bluearmy]

dropped a sentence ? a very important one aswell !!

have they dropped a clanger? seems to have reverted to tuesday again

was a mistake and they have added a temperature ref now. still a big change in nuance

Edited January 23, 2013 by bluearmy

[Don]

Looks like they've given up on the idea of colder weather to return in February for now. Not a good update for coldies!

[Neiller22]

Yeah looks like winter going out in a whimper! Not surprised. Ah we'll ,roll on summer now in thy case.

[Summer Sun]

Ah well spring will be here soon, February could be going out in a typical UK fashion a fairly mild and dry one

[Peter H]

Indeed, it'll be interesting to see the BBC monthly outl;ook on Monday as they seemed pretty positive the cold would return at some stage.

Current models aren't at all encouraging though.

As others have said, roll on spring/summer. I'm fed up with this winter now.

What I don't want is snow at Easter. Yuk.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 8 Feb 2013 to Friday 22 Feb 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty throughout this period. The most likely scenario is for conditions at the start of this period to be less cold than at the moment but also on the unsettled side. In terms of rain and snowfall, southern parts in particular will probably start wetter than average, but trend to nearer normal by mid-month, while the north will probably see drier than average conditions for much of the period. Temperatures for the rest of this period are not expected to be far from the seasonal norm.

Updated: 1156 on Thu 24 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Feb 2013 to Saturday 23 Feb 2013:

There are large uncertainties at this forecast range, however indications are that colder than average conditions will become more likely across all parts of the UK. Northwestern parts of the UK may well see drier than average conditions on the whole. Southern and eastern parts of the UK could see average or even greater than average amounts of precipitation.

Updated: 1157 on Fri 25 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Great Plum]

Back to where we were a few days ago then!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

That instills confidence.....quite laughable

BFTP

[Bristawl Si]

That instills confidence.....quite laughable

BFTP

It is laughable really. I think they should put these medium range forecasts out just twice/week.

Still, the latest suggests a return to your favourite synopotics BFTP - do you think so?

[feb1991blizzard]

That instills confidence.....quite laughable

BFTP

You really wonder why they did not just pesist until today with what they were going with or better still, could have changed their wording to what they are saying now to allow for high shannon entropy and then if by today they had been more certain of nothing significantly colder than average then they could have changed, good news anyway, gives us a fighting chance.

[Weathizard]

I've learnt something this winter - in scenarios like this these forecasts are about as much use as a chocolate teapot.

[Neiller22]

That's why we should take theses daily updates with a pinch of salt! They constantly change their minds! In my eyes LRF are no closer than years ago with there accuracy!! Prob change there mind again tomorrow

[Summer Sun]

I wonder what they saw to make them change the wording to average temperature for 2 days I know there are large uncertainties but there must have been a strong signal some where to make them change the wording

[Don]

Well, I'm glad they've reverted back to their colder idea, but as others have said not much confidence to take from the forecast at the moment due it chopping and changing a bit. To be fair though, before Wednesday they had been quite consistent in regards to colder weather returning (albeit with uncertainty), so perhaps the last two days was a blip?