METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[shedhead]

This is the update we have been waiting for, perhaps Shedhead will be more convinced of an imminent cold spell now then.

I remain convinced of exactly the same a previous and for that matter the same as the MO, i.e an imminent spell of colder not cold weather, but a greater chance of proper cold spell further into Dec.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 8 Dec 2012 to Saturday 22 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. However, there are signs that northerly winds may be quite frequent across the UK. So, on balance, colder than average conditions are favoured, with a risk of frost and fog, and an increased risk of some snow.

Updated: 1205 on Fri 23 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Polar Maritime]

I remain convinced of exactly the same a previous and for that matter the same as the MO, i.e an imminent spell of colder not cold weather, but a greater chance of proper cold spell further into Dec.

Colder than average = Cold.

Edited November 23, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[shedhead]

Colder than average = Cold.

Colder than average can mean cold, but it doesn't have too. I'm sure JH will be happy to post the MO's definations of various temperature values, but 0.5 to 1.0c below average for instance would not be classified as cold.

[chris55]

From the MET

UK Outlook for Wednesday 28 Nov 2012 to Friday 7 Dec 2012:

Outbreaks of rain will continue to affect the far southeast Wednesday, clearing away by Thursday. Elsewhere, a mixture of sunshine and showers throughout the rest of next week, with the heaviest showers towards the northeast, wintry over high ground with hill snow in the north. Windy at times, with the risk of gales in the southeast at first. It will be rather cold with a risk of overnight frost and icy patches. Becoming cold into the start of December with widespread overnight frosts. More settled than of late with sunny spells, but also wintry showers, especially in the north and east where accumulations over high ground are likely with snow perhaps falling at low levels.

UK Outlook for Saturday 8 Dec 2012 to Saturday 22 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. However, there are signs that northerly winds may be quite frequent across the UK. So, on balance, colder than average conditions are likely to continue, with a risk of frost and fog, and an increased risk of some snow.

Issued at: 0238 on Sat 24 Nov 2012

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 9 Dec 2012 to Sunday 23 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. However, there are signs that northerly winds may be quite frequent across the UK. So, on balance, colder than average conditions are likely to continue, with a risk of frost and fog, and an increased risk of some snow.

Updated: 1020 on Sat 24 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[johnholmes]

Colder than average can mean cold, but it doesn't have too. I'm sure JH will be happy to post the MO's definations of various temperature values, but 0.5 to 1.0c below average for instance would not be classified as cold.

not really it has to be, searches for table, according to UK Met, as -2 to -3C is called rather cold and cold is -4 to -5C with very cold being below -5C, those values are for temperatures below the normal value.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 10 Dec 2012 to Monday 24 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. However, there are signs that northerly winds may be quite frequent across the UK. So, on balance, colder than average conditions are likely to continue, with a risk of frost and fog, and an increased risk of some snow.

Updated: 1157 on Sun 25 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[shedhead]

not really it has to be, searches for table, according to UK Met, as -2 to -3C is called rather cold and cold is -4 to -5C with very cold being below -5C, those values are for temperatures below the normal value.

Thanks for that John, it does rather back up my contention that 'below average' does not always mean cold, in fact at -4 to -5c it appears we have to be some way below average before it gets officially classified as 'cold'.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 11 Dec 2012 to Tuesday 25 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. However, there are signs that northerly winds may be quite frequent across the UK. So, on balance, colder than average conditions are likely to continue, with a risk of frost and fog, and an increased risk of some snow.

Updated: 1138 on Mon 26 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Polar Maritime]

Thanks for that John, it does rather back up my contention that 'below average' does not always mean cold, in fact at -4 to -5c it appears we have to be some way below average before it gets officially classified as 'cold'.

not really it has to be, searches for table, according to UK Met, as -2 to -3C is called rather cold and cold is -4 to -5C with very cold being below -5C, those values are for temperatures below the normal value.

So, the met are forecasting... below average temp's =cold.

[SnowObsessor90]

You'd like to think that things can't possibly get any worse but lets not forget the ECM 32 dayer comes out tomorrow, if what it shows is uninspiring then it'll also force the MetO to backtrack in their 16-30 day outlook also which really would be the ultimate insult.

[johnholmes]

So, the met are forecasting... below average temp's =cold.

nope-please read the definitions, rather cold is 2 to 3C below average, below average temperatures=between rather cold and normal if that makes sense?

[Polar Maritime]

nope-please read the definitions, rather cold is 2 to 3C below average, below average temperatures=between rather cold and normal if that makes sense?

Ok thanks John, thanks Shed for rising this subject, ive learnt something out of it at least

[shedhead]

The last 24-48hrs of model watching have highlighted something to me with regard to these MO outputs. Many in the MDT thought they were heading straight to the 5* restaurant and launching right into the Lobster and Grand Cru. The MO on the other hand had been eyeing the mains, but they always remembered there was a potentially less impressive starter to get through first and before that has happened any thoughts of things further into the menu are being kept firmly on hold.

I good lesson for many to learn imo.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 12 Dec 2012 to Wednesday 26 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. However, there are signs that north or north easterly winds may be quite frequent across the UK. So, on balance, colder than average conditions are likely to continue, with a risk of frost and fog, and an increased risk of some snow in places.

Updated: 1134 on Tue 27 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Weathizard]

Are we to read anything into the word changes

Yesterday

'However, there are signs that northerly winds may be quite frequent across the UK. So, on balance, colder than average conditions are likely to continue, with a risk of frost and fog, and an increased risk of some snow.'

Today

'However, there are signs that north or north easterly winds may be quite frequent across the UK. So, on balance, colder than average conditions are likely to continue, with a risk of frost and fog, and an increased risk of some snow in places.'

Hmmmmmm....

[arcticadventurer]

Are we to read anything into the word changes

Yesterday

'However, there are signs that northerly winds may be quite frequent across the UK. So, on balance, colder than average conditions are likely to continue, with a risk of frost and fog, and an increased risk of some snow.'

Today

'However, there are signs that north or north easterly winds may be quite frequent across the UK. So, on balance, colder than average conditions are likely to continue, with a risk of frost and fog, and an increased risk of some snow in places.'

Hmmmmmm....

Looking good me thinks

[Don]

Are we to read anything into the word changes

Yesterday

'However, there are signs that northerly winds may be quite frequent across the UK. So, on balance, colder than average conditions are likely to continue, with a risk of frost and fog, and an increased risk of some snow.'

Today

'However, there are signs that north or north easterly winds may be quite frequent across the UK. So, on balance, colder than average conditions are likely to continue, with a risk of frost and fog, and an increased risk of some snow in places.'

Hmmmmmm....

I suppose with a more north easterly element, northern and eastern areas are more at risk of seeing snow as opposed to more of the country in general from a northerly? Perhaps that's why the wording has changed to 'snow in places'? Whatever, still looks like a decent outlook for coldies. We'll just have to see how things develop now.

Edited November 27, 2012 by Don

[UV-RAY]

I suppose with a more north easterly element, northern and eastern areas are more at risk of seeing snow as opposed to more of the country in general from a northerly? Perhaps that's why the wording has changed to 'snow in places'? Whatever, still looks like a decent outlook for coldies. We'll just have to see how things develop now.

A NE element would bring snow to more areas than a Northerly as any troughs that form would be pushed well inland, whereas a Northerly at this time of year only favours Scotland/NE and Eastern coastal districts. Off course there are exceptions to this rule. Edited November 27, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[Don]

A NE element would bring snow to more areas than a Northerly as any troughs that form would be pushed well inland, whereas a Northerly at this time of year only favours Scotland/NE and Eastern coastal districts. Off course there are exceptions to this rule.

Yes thinking about it again that does make more sense! Oh well all good from that update but as said earlier, we will have to see!

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 13 Dec 2012 to Thursday 27 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. However, there are signs that north or north easterly winds may be quite frequent across the UK. So, on balance, colder than average conditions are likely to continue, with a risk of frost and fog, and an increased risk of some snow in places.

Updated: 1138 on Wed 28 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 14 Dec 2012 to Friday 28 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. However, there are signs that north or north westerly winds may be quite frequent across the UK. So, on balance, colder than average conditions are likely to continue, with a risk of frost and fog, and an increased risk of some snow in places. There are also some indications that the weather may become drier than during the first half of December.

Updated: 1144 on Thu 29 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Weathizard]

On the day the models trend a little bit towards NE/E we get a change to NW, strange

[bluearmy]

^{UK Outlook for Saturday 15 Dec 2012 to Saturday 29 Dec 2012:}

^{Temperatures by both day and night are most likely to be below average during this period, with a greater incidence of overnight frost and, at times, fog or freezing fog. The signal for rain and snowfall amounts during this period shows a high degree of uncertainty, however, on balance, slightly drier conditions compared to average are favoured for most of the UK. Even though there is a drier-than-average signal for much of the UK, where precipitation does occur, there is a greater chance that it will fall as snow compared to normal.}

^{Updated: 1218 on Fri 30 Nov 2012}