METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Nov 2012 to Thursday 15 Nov 2012:

Indications are that through the first half of November, mixed autumnal weather will dominate across the UK. Some drier and less unsettled spells are likely, particularly across eastern and southeastern parts of the UK for a time. There will, however, also be showers or longer periods of rain affecting most parts but more especially the north and west. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts through this period. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of year, with some chilly nights possible with mist and fog patches developing and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

Updated: 1243 on Thu 18 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Nov 2012 to Saturday 17 Nov 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, however there is a signal for temperatures to be below average for November across much of the UK. Scotland is more likely to see near normal temperatures. Rainfall amounts are likely to be around average with periods rain or showers at times and the chance of wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland. There are likely to be clear and dry spells too, leading to an overnight frost risk at times across the UK.

Updated: 1257 on Fri 19 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 4 Nov 2012 to Sunday 18 Nov 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, however there is a signal for temperatures to be below average for November across much of the UK. Scotland is more likely to see near normal temperatures. Rainfall amounts are likely to be around average with periods rain or showers at times and the chance of wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland. There are likely to be clear and dry spells too, leading to an overnight frost risk at times across the UK.

Updated: 1249 on Sat 20 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 5 Nov 2012 to Monday 19 Nov 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, however there is a signal for temperatures to be below average for November across much of the UK. Scotland is more likely to see near normal temperatures. Rainfall amounts are likely to be around average with periods rain or showers at times and the chance of wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland. There are likely to be clear and dry spells too, leading to an overnight frost risk at times across the UK.

Updated: 1236 on Sun 21 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 6 Nov 2012 to Tuesday 20 Nov 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, however there is a signal for temperatures to stay below average for November across much of the UK. Scotland is more likely than other areas to see near normal temperatures. Rainfall amounts are likely to be around average with periods of rain or showers at times and the chance of wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland. There are likely to be clear and dry spells too, leading to an overnight frost risk at times across the UK.

Updated: 1212 on Mon 22 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Edited October 22, 2012 by Stuart

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Nov 2012 to Wednesday 21 Nov 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, however there is a signal for temperatures to stay below average for November across much of the UK. Scotland is more likely than other areas to see near normal temperatures. Rainfall amounts are likely to be around average with periods of rain or showers at times and the chance of wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland. There are likely to be clear and dry spells too, leading to an overnight frost risk at times across the UK.

Updated: 1128 on Tue 23 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Nov 2012 to Thursday 22 Nov 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. However, there is a signal for temperatures to stay below average for November across much of the UK. Scotland is more likely than other areas to see near normal temperatures. Rainfall amounts are likely to be around average with periods of rain or showers at times and the chance of wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland. There are likely to be clear and dry spells too, and there will be a risk of frost where there are clear skies overnight.

Updated: 1259 on Wed 24 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 9 Nov 2012 to Friday 23 Nov 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. However, there is a signal for temperatures to stay below average for November across much of the UK. Scotland is more likely than other areas to see near normal temperatures. Rainfall amounts are likely to be around average with periods of rain or showers at times and the chance of wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland. There are likely to be clear and dry spells too, and there will be a risk of frost where there are clear skies overnight.

Updated: 1241 on Thu 25 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 10 Nov 2012 to Saturday 24 Nov 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. However, there is a signal for temperatures to stay largely below average for the time of year across much of the UK. Scotland is more likely than other areas to see near normal temperatures. During the latter part of the period, temperatures may recover closer to the seasonal average. Drier conditions are possible across southern parts to start the period, but generally rainfall amounts are likely to be around average with periods of rain or showers at times and the chance of wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland. All parts may, however, see some drier and clearer interludes, bringing the risk of overnight frosts in places.

Updated: 1245 on Fri 26 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Nov 2012 to Sunday 25 Nov 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. However, there is a signal for temperatures to stay largely below average for the time of year across much of the UK. Scotland is more likely than other areas to see near normal temperatures. During the latter part of the period, temperatures may recover closer to the seasonal average. Drier conditions are possible across southern parts to start the period, but generally rainfall amounts are likely to be around average with periods of rain or showers at times and the chance of wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland in particular. All parts may, however, see some drier and clearer interludes, bringing the risk of overnight frosts in places.

Updated: 1127 on Sat 27 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Nov 2012 to Tuesday 27 Nov 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. However, there is a signal for temperatures to stay largely below average for the time of year across much of the UK. Scotland is more likely than other areas to see near normal temperatures. During the latter part of the period, temperatures may recover closer to the seasonal average. Drier conditions are possible across southern parts to start the period, but generally rainfall amounts are likely to be around average with periods of rain or showers at times and the chance of wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland in particular. All parts may, however, see some drier and clearer interludes, bringing the risk of overnight frosts in places.

Updated: 1213 on Mon 29 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Nov 2012 to Wednesday 28 Nov 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that, on the whole, the weather may become less unsettled than it has been. There is a signal for temperatures to stay largely below average for the time of year across much of the UK. Later in the month, there are indications that northern and western parts of the UK may see somewhat drier conditions than normal for this time of year. Overnight frosts are likely to become more widespread with time.

Updated: 1208 on Tue 30 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

[carinthian]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Nov 2012 to Wednesday 28 Nov 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that, on the whole, the weather may become less unsettled than it has been. There is a signal for temperatures to stay largely below average for the time of year across much of the UK. Later in the month, there are indications that northern and western parts of the UK may see somewhat drier conditions than normal for this time of year. Overnight frosts are likely to become more widespread with time.

Updated: 1208 on Tue 30 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Thats quite a marked change in the update. Looks like a prolonged block to the northwest with increasing amounts of frosts ?

[Ice BIast]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Nov 2012 to Wednesday 28 Nov 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that, on the whole, the weather may become less unsettled than it has been. There is a signal for temperatures to stay largely below average for the time of year across much of the UK. Later in the month, there are indications that northern and western parts of the UK may see somewhat drier conditions than normal for this time of year. Overnight frosts are likely to become more widespread with time.

Updated: 1208 on Tue 30 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Looks like they've seen the updated ECM 32 dayer

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 15 Nov 2012 to Thursday 29 Nov 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that, on the whole, the weather may become less unsettled than it has been. There is a signal for temperatures to stay largely below average for the time of year across much of the UK, with many places seeing somewhat drier conditions than normal for this time of year. Overnight frosts are likely to become more widespread with time.

Updated: 1157 on Wed 31 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 16 Nov 2012 to Friday 30 Nov 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that, on the whole, the weather may become less unsettled than it has been. There is a signal for temperatures to stay largely below average for the time of year across much of the UK, with many places seeing somewhat drier conditions than normal for this time of year. Overnight frosts are likely to become more widespread with time.

Updated: 1143 on Thu 1 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[noggin]

They've bloomin' well changed their minds and are now saying it will continue unsettled for the latter half of November. What a turnaround.

I am very disappointed! Having moved house recently I was relieved that I would be able to start to get the garden in order in a few weeks, but now it looks unlikely.

Perhaps I'm just grumpy with all the rain...............

[johnholmes]

They've bloomin' well changed their minds and are now saying it will continue unsettled for the latter half of November. What a turnaround.

I am very disappointed! Having moved house recently I was relieved that I would be able to start to get the garden in order in a few weeks, but now it looks unlikely.

Perhaps I'm just grumpy with all the rain...............

the joys of being a forecaster are few at times!

But there is little point in sticking with a story that seems wrong. It is unusual, assuming there has been such a marked change, for it to be so sudden though. As usual I would love to be able to read the detail in why this change has been published-

Ian/Matt any suggestions?

Edited November 2, 2012 by johnholmes

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 17 Nov 2012 to Saturday 1 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the unsettled conditions will continue through the remainder of the month. Rainfall amounts are more likely to be above the seasonal average rather than below, especially across England and Wales. In addition, there is a stronger signal for temperatures to stay largely below average for the time of year, with a risk of frosts in any overnight clear spells. Accompanied with such conditions, there is the threat of precipitation being wintry in nature at times, especially over higher ground in the north.

Updated: 1133 on Fri 2 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Adam lufc]

Hmm what do they see?? That's a turn around of sorts!! Why Dnt the charts show this. I think that update is quite exciting and seems to have picked up on a signal.......

[Summer Sun]

The latest from Matt Hugo on Twitter is

Latest ECM 32 day continues to show some interesting Synoptics long term with a risk of northern blocking still evident by late Nov.

We must also remember the met office have more charts to look at than we do but they must have some confidence of a colder second half to November

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Nov 2012 to Sunday 2 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the unsettled conditions will continue through the remainder of the month. Rainfall amounts are more likely to be above the seasonal average rather than below, especially across England and Wales. In addition, there is a stronger signal for temperatures to stay largely below average for the time of year, with a risk of frosts in any overnight clear spells. Accompanied with such conditions, there is the threat of precipitation being wintry in nature at times, especially over higher ground in the north.

Updated: 1133 on Sat 3 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 19 Nov 2012 to Monday 3 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the unsettled conditions will continue through the remainder of the month. Rainfall amounts are more likely to be above the seasonal average rather than below, especially across England and Wales. In addition, there is a stronger signal for temperatures to stay largely below average for the time of year, with a risk of frosts in any overnight clear spells. Accompanied with such conditions, there is the threat of precipitation being wintry in nature at times, especially over higher ground.

Updated: 1141 on Sun 4 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Nov 2012 to Tuesday 4 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the unsettled conditions will continue through the remainder of the month. Rainfall amounts are more likely to be above the seasonal average rather than below, especially across England and Wales. In addition, there is a stronger signal for temperatures to stay largely below average for the time of year, with a risk of frosts in any overnight clear spells. Accompanied with such conditions, there is the threat of precipitation being wintry in nature at times, especially over higher ground.

Updated: 1133 on Mon 5 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[feb1991blizzard]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 21 Nov 2012 to Wednesday 5 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the changeable conditions will continue through the start of this forecast period. Rainfall amounts are more likely to be above the seasonal average rather than below, especially across England and Wales. There is also a signal for temperatures to be close to or just below the seasonal average. Towards the latter part of the period, there are some suggestions that conditions will turn drier with more in the way of sunshine, but also colder, with temperatures well below the seasonal average. This will give a greater risk of overnight frosts.

Updated: 1134 on Tue 6 Nov 2012

WE HAVE LIFT OFF!!!!!

Edited November 6, 2012 by feb1991blizzard