Model Output Discussion

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Morning all,

at this time of year although its not impossible , like april 2008 , its very very rare we will see snow now until november at the earliest, so rather than looking for northerlies , im looking for warmth, hot sunshine, barbeques until 10pm drinking beer with shorts an a vest on ! That to me is so much more apealing than wet slushy snow thats gone as soon as the sun comes out , we really are fighting against the times if we'r looking for significant snow , we have had a snowy winter and iv lost count the amount of times iv saw snow falling this winter , must be at least 10 different occasions,

As iv grown up the yrs go faster an 6mths is like 6wks now to me it really does fly and considering its only a little more than 7 months till november it really wont be long untill we'r all back on hear chasing these holy grail charts thinkin will this next winter continue down the same vane as the last two, my thoughts are yes they will for a number of reasons i wont go into untill october time, but for now . . . . .

theres so much to do , have of lots fun, drink , parties, hollidays , nights out, get fit, pull chicks , pull guys , see family , weddings , days out , picnics , swimming in the sea , outdoor sports , sun bath on the beach , ect ect ect the list goes on an on. . . . . . . .all of this to do in just 6mths so make the most of it everyone and have a nice safe summer and il see everyone in a few months for it all over again.

[Weather-history]

Morning all,

at this time of year although its not impossible , like april 2008 , its very very rare we will see snow now until november at the earliest,

Snow in April is not that rare, lying snow is obviously less common than falling snow but I recall seeing falling snow during the Aprils of 1985, 1986, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2008 and lying snow for April 1990, 1994, 1998, 2008

Edited March 23, 2010 by Mr_Data

[londonsnow]

i remember lying snow in june. 1975 i think. anyway mostly uninspiring models today. spring is my least favourite season. can't we just skip it and head straight to a summer of hot sun and thunder

[The PIT]

Well mild to warm in the reliable time frame. Now the northerly is interesting. First of all it doesn't pull much of the way of cold air in so still double figures for the south. ECM quickly moves it on out of the way and back to mild and wet. GFS though in FI likes the northerly and slowly brings the air further south. As we get towards deep FI it gets really cold. Pity it isn't in the reliable time frame as this place would be in melt down.

[londonsnow]

the FI 6z certainly gives winter a finale. as The Pit says, shame it's FI. worth a watch though

[snowmadchrisuk]

Snow in April is not that rare, lying snow is obviously less common than falling snow but I recall seeing falling snow during the Aprils of 1985, 1986, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2008 and lying snow for April 1990, 1994, 1998, 2008

Hi the last Snow I remember in 2008 was Easter Sunday , Easter Sunday was in March though in 2008 . Was there further Snow after then in the North ?

[Eugene]

Yes as mr data says snowfall in April is not rare though it lasting long on the ground away from the north is, you are more likely to see snowfall in April than November, min averages are very close between them two months showing just how cold nights can be in April with much shorter nights, runs still looking unsettled but like on GFS 06Z lows push further south and pull some arctic air into the mix some nice showery April days with lovely cloudscapes would be possible.

[Eugene]

There are two in instances of potential for heavy snowfall in the south and midlands on GFS 06Z, be gone when the sun comes up though but if you want to go sledging set your alarm clocks for 6 am and go out and enjoy the snow cover before it melts quickly in the strong late March/earlyApril sun

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1922.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

[snowmadchrisuk]

There are two in instances of potential for heavy snowfall in the south and midlands on GFS 06Z, be gone when the sun comes up though but if you want to go sledging set your alarm clocks for 6 am and go out and enjoy the snow cover before it melts quickly in the strong late March/earlyApril sun

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1922.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

Says it all though , the chart you post is at +192 just as official FI starts . The Early Northerly for Scotland is looking very likely infact -15 850's get very very close on that run . But we would need a strong block to form to our NW to stand much chance down South IMO . In the past the only thing that would have gone along with some of the FI charts is the Metoffice has been going for a below average April for ages but they have been so badly wrong of late you almost start to expect the opposite .

[cooling climate]

Hi the last Snow I remember in 2008 was Easter Sunday , Easter Sunday was in March though in 2008 . Was there further Snow after then in the North ?

Down here in Hertfordshire we had snow on the 6th of April. There was roughly 1 to 11/2 inches

of snow cover. Some shady areas kept a little snow all day and there was still some snow left in the

fork ends of branches on the trees.

[karyo]

Hi the last Snow I remember in 2008 was Easter Sunday , Easter Sunday was in March though in 2008 . Was there further Snow after then in the North ?

Indeed there was! I remember the first weekend of April was particularly wintry with snow at times and frost by night! I was on a night out in Manchester and clearly remember it!

Karyo

[snowmadchrisuk]

Down here in Hertfordshire we had snow on the 6th of April. There was roughly 1 to 11/2 inches

of snow cover. Some shady areas kept a little snow all day and there was still some snow left in the

fork ends of branches on the trees.

I don't remember that one Leicester must have missed out But looking back at the archives as I said in my earlier post note the huge blocking to our West NW

But on Eugene's chart from today's run we have no proper block at all so I don't think you can compare really.

[mushymanrob]

the only time ive ever seen proper snow (as in settling and staying ) in april was in 1968, apart from that its all but useless...just cold rain.

i see fi is having a right old time of it, no clear consistent trend, might as well bin it.

[William of Walworth]

Hello all

Not been much (if at all) on here over the past 6 or so months, being the winter-indifferent summer-focusser that I am.

Current output looking pretty likely to give us an unsettled Easter period and maybe even a bit of a winter flavoured one, though like for others posting, my expectations of any snow are low.

I'm very happy with a poor Easter and April though, last year our Easter weekend, like for much of April 2009, was very warm and Springlike -- even early summer like -- with lots of sunshine. But I'd trade a rubbish Easter for a markedly improved (mid-May onwards) summer any year!

[Thundery wintry showers]

While people are entitled to lose interest in cold and snow as soon as meteorological spring begins, I get very tired of the usual delusions about what wintry weather in Spring entails. Yes, persistent snow cover becomes rare once we reach this time of year, but to say that all wintry weather in spring is "raw and sleety", "horrible wet slushy stuff" or even "cold rain" is pure confirmation bias of the form "I don't want wintry weather in Spring because it's useless, and it's useless because I don't want it". In particular those northerly/north-westerly regimes with towering Cb cells, shafts of snow and hail, and dramatic temperature fluctuations hold a lot of appeal for some.

A snowy Easter is unlikely because I think if we do get some kind of northerly it will most likely precede the Easter period, though as Mr_Data showed us, the ensembles point to a cool Easter with moderate to low pressure. Interestingly the ECM has backed away from the wintry northerly scenario and the GFS appears to have started going with it, so it's still up in the air as to exactly what happens, but it looks increasingly likely that temperatures will fall to near or below average levels towards the end of the month.

[johnholmes]

Yes, snow when it falls at this time of the year is highly unlikely to be anything other than a transitory feature-much as Easter Sunday last year for this area-gone by late afternoon-interesting but that is all.

Most, I suspect, on here would indeed like a mix but with some nice warm sunny days with the odd hefty shower thrown in.

After all, April showers etc.

And making this relevant to the thread title-a mix is indeed what the models seem to show, some warmth but briefly, some cold (for the time of year) perhaps rather more of than the warmth. But a mix so something for all.

Our preferences are our preferences and everyone is entitled to that without being hauled up for wanting one thing or another that someone else does not want.

I find this constant comment about other peoples preferences is a touch tiresome.

Edited March 23, 2010 by johnholmes

[Thundery wintry showers]

If I am being referenced here, there is a distinction between matters of preference and matters of misconception. The misconception that cold/wintry weather in spring means raw sleety muck, slush, cold rain, or a result that's useless for all, is no better than the misconception that mild weather in winter means overcast skies and drizzle, and it often serves as means of dismissing other people's excitement over northerlies through use of negative spin on them. I've seen numerous projections for stonewall "sunshine and snow showers" northerlies- including the aforementioned one in April 2008- labelled as "dull raw and sleety" over the years, purely because many people didn't want them.

Interestingly the GFS continues to stick with the northerly on the 12Z but with lows piling over the south my guess from the 12Z solution would be sunshine and wintry showers for the north but probably a good deal of "cold rain" from fronts straddling the south of the country.

Edited March 23, 2010 by Thundery wintry showers

[snowfish]

If I am being referenced here, there is a distinction between matters of preference and matters of misconception. The misconception that cold/wintry weather in spring means raw sleety muck, slush, cold rain, or a result that's useless for all, is no better than the misconception that mild weather in winter means overcast skies and drizzle, and it often serves as means of dismissing other people's excitement over northerlies through use of negative spin on them. I've seen numerous projections for stonewall "sunshine and snow showers" northerlies- including the aforementioned one in April 2008- labelled as "dull raw and sleety" over the years, purely because many people didn't want them.

Interestingly the GFS continues to stick with the northerly on the 12Z but with lows piling over the south my guess from the 12Z solution would be sunshine and wintry showers for the north but probably a good deal of "cold rain" from fronts straddling the south of the country.

Yes, all models reflecting this northerly to a greater or lesser extent.....Wouldn't rule out some wintry showers for more southern areas given the 528 dam line appears quite a bit further south on the last couple of runs certainly...

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think it depends on how far south the Arctic air can get before it gets cut off by secondary lows moving W-E along the southern flank of it. I would expect wintry showers to occur pretty much anywhere if the northerly/north-westerly flow manages to extend to all parts of the country, but without a strong block to the W/NW there is always the chance of secondary lows cutting off the coldest air and leaving us with an unsettled, near average to fairly cold outlook with no snowfall away from northern hills.

By about T+168 the Arctic airmass reaches all parts on this run, but we're towards FI by then. Nonetheless support for it does seem to be increasing with each set of runs.

[phil nw.]

If I am being referenced here, there is a distinction between matters of preference and matters of misconception. The misconception that cold/wintry weather in spring means raw sleety muck, slush, cold rain, or a result that's useless for all, is no better than the misconception that mild weather in winter means overcast skies and drizzle, and it often serves as means of dismissing other people's excitement over northerlies through use of negative spin on them. I've seen numerous projections for stonewall "sunshine and snow showers" northerlies- including the aforementioned one in April 2008- labelled as "dull raw and sleety" over the years, purely because many people didn't want them.

Interestingly the GFS continues to stick with the northerly on the 12Z but with lows piling over the south my guess from the 12Z solution would be sunshine and wintry showers for the north but probably a good deal of "cold rain" from fronts straddling the south of the country.

I used the term Raw and Sleety a few days ago.

Just want to clear any confusion, i was referring to a particular Easterly setup that was showing at the time.

An Arctic Northerly,even at this time of year,of course would be a different kettle of fish.

The Easterly i talked about would be most unwelcome,whereas the Northerly would probably bring Snow showers for many with towering Cumulo Nimbus and bright sunshine in between.

I would think that would be interesting for most Weather enthusiasts, including myself.

Edited March 23, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[The PIT]

GFS really going to for the cold snap with a complete reversal of the Mild/Warm outlook of the last few days. Have to wait for the ECM too see if that comes back on-board or not. UKMO at T120 is following the GFS which is outside the reliable time frame.

[BlueHedgehog074]

I get the feeling the most of the country will experience at least one wintry/snowy event sometime next week, even in the South, with the snow risk looking particularly good at around 162 hours and over. I would say that the 850 hpa high-up temperatures do look a little bit tight at first, however, for some Southern areas. But the colder high-up temperatures from the North do look to start edging more Southwards the further on into next week.

I would have gone as far as saying that quite a number of places have the snow risk for more than one day, but considering the models and weather forecasts can change from time to time, I think I'll probably just stick with a one-day chance of wintry weather for this area for the moment.

The only other problem, too, is that the Met Office outlook seem to restirct the risk of snow over Northern Hills, so I'm sort going to balance my prediction against the outlook and some of the models, plus the 10 day NetWeather.tv weather forecasts.

Certainly still some good mild/warm weather for most of us first before the colder spell (although obviously wet at times, too).

(Note: this being my first post in the Model Output Thread, so I'm hoping it's okay).

[phil nw.]

Yes a colder weekend has been showing in varying guises on most runs over the last 2-3 days and 12z continues this.

UKMO http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

GFS http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png

We will have to wait for the ECM but some sort of cool down looks quite probable.

At the moment Scotland looks likely to have the highest chance of some Arctic air whereas further South it depends if any Cyclonic development cuts off the Northerly before it gets established.

Edited March 23, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[SP1986]

Dont forget the GFS is more or less out its own here, at loggerheads with the ECM and UKMO, in fact in the longer term there is not much consistency at all. The GFS may turn out to be correct but it's the more different approach so I am for now sceptical of that approach.

[Cheese Rice]

Ooooh a very interesting GFS run, of course we will have to take it at face value but one can still hope it comes of. After a rather boring March with a distinct lack of snow (one day here with snow cover) I personally would love one last snowy spell. As we head into April the sun should be strong enough for some really heavy showers, these showers would pack a punch with very heavy hail, sleet or snow and even lightning. Temperatures would be below average but nothing unusual (4-6.c), -5 850's can't really deliver temperature wise in April.

Favourite chart, 4 inches of snow for Wales .