Model Output Discussion

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

GFS18z throws a spanner in the works for the Bank Holiday weekend in that it does'nt even bring in the northerly, high pressure just rebuilds back over us.

In what way is that a spanner in the works ??? GFS 00z seems even more keen to keep things generally settled, with the HP of early next week swiftly followed by a decent Atlantic block which quickly shifts to sit right over us. But of course, ECM having none of that, with a much messier evolution, although it ends up in a somewhat similar settled pattern.

[SP1986]

The only thing that may be on the GFS side is the fact that in the past in these situations, particularly 2003, high pressure kept being forecast to be replace by low pressure but it never happened, similar to what is being shown now. If that occurs god help us because the majority of the UK may not see a single rain drop for a month!

I want rain now personally, I miss the humid feel of summer

[The PIT]

Some warm weather coming up for the foreseable future which guarantee a above average April. ECM in FI prefers another northerly outbreak while GFS goes for the opposite wind direction.

[Frosty.]

A warm weekend ahead, tomorrow looks sunnier whereas sunday will be more humid with scattered showers breaking out and generally more hazy and cloudy but with temps between 19-22c with the warmest conditions in the southeast. Next week sees high pressure building to the SE of the BI but low pressure soon making inroads into NW Britain but a mild to warm week ahead although probably turning cooler from the north by the end of next week but pressure could then begin to build again from the southwest so southern britain is looking set for a fairly prolonged settled spell and warm at times but the north and in particular, scotland, will be somewhat cooler and more changeable and more unsettled further north.

[Frosty.]

Nobody in the mood to post then?

The GFS 06z shows a very cold spell in early may, especially for the north but it's just another of many possibilities and depends on whether high pressure becomes established in the mid atlantic and the trough formation in scandinavia, it would be quite a dramatic wintry feeling outbreak but only a small risk of it occuring, could just as easily be warm and sunny.

[cold snap]

Its now the 23th April and Cold outcomes have been shown right from the early stages of winter right up to now

GFS ECM UKMO have refused to drop cold hints for the pass 4 months

1st May GFS 6oZ http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn1921.html

Chart that would not look out of place in January,Saying that it might not happen.But GFS gives it a chance.

Edited April 23, 2010 by cold snap

[jethro]

Hi folks, need some advice..... I'm trying to plan delivery and laying of a considerable amount of turf; the ground is really quite dry down here, not that I'm wanting to see an end to this fabulous weather but I really need to have a general idea of if, and when any rain is in the offing. Are we likely to see a week or so of wet weather in the near future?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Probably not, there are some indications of low pressure coming in during next week but it may well be brief- a belt of rain followed by sunshine and showers and then a rise in pressure from the west or south-west.

[mushymanrob]

Hi folks, need some advice..... I'm trying to plan delivery and laying of a considerable amount of turf; the ground is really quite dry down here, not that I'm wanting to see an end to this fabulous weather but I really need to have a general idea of if, and when any rain is in the offing. Are we likely to see a week or so of wet weather in the near future?

atm theres no prolonged wet spell, a few days of rain are possible here and there but the general theme is dry. not good turf laying weather!

[johnholmes]

and that from another gardening type chappy.

seems about right, some on Sunday if you are lucky but then not a lot!

As posted last week and a timely moment to repeat, last week of April into early May and we will see a very warm spell develop and likely to be a very fine and settle period for most. I have booked a ten day break between 26th April and 5th May...let's have it as models are liking the idea.

BFTP

err models seem not to be listening BFTP?

[rmc1987]

Forecast on weather channel iPhone app for tomorrow says most cloudy start becoming sunnier, high 18c. This is for London. Sounds pretty normal to me, a bit milder than normal. Can this spell really give us a 20c let alone anything more at some point? Then showers on Sunday, so not that dry a spell.

Edited April 23, 2010 by rmc1987

[Costa Del Fal]

Forecast on weather channel iPhone app for tomorrow says most cloudy start becoming sunnier, high 18c. This is for London. Sounds pretty normal to me, a bit milder than normal. Can this spell really give us a 20c let alone anything more at some point? Then showers on Sunday, so not that dry a spell.

Lol, its been dry for coming upto a month here!!!

I think it will be very sunny across almost all of England tomorrow. Should be a great day.

Sunday will be sunny but some showers or Thunderstorms springing up as the charts suggest. After this it settles down again and warm.

[Derp Patrol]

Forecast on weather channel iPhone app for tomorrow says most cloudy start becoming sunnier, high 18c. This is for London. Sounds pretty normal to me, a bit milder than normal. Can this spell really give us a 20c let alone anything more at some point? Then showers on Sunday, so not that dry a spell.

Average for late April in London is about 16C/17C according to the weather channel. I wouldn't trust the app personally, if you want an idea of the weather in the next few days then the BBC 5 day forecasts are usually fairly accurate. They are forecasting 21C tomorrow, and from 19C to 23C for the next 5 days. It could be a bit warmer though, as the past few days the temps have been underestimated by about 2C

It's been very dry for a while now.. I actually cannot remember any rain falling this month, and the past 16 days have been cloudless sunny days for the mostpart..

Edited April 23, 2010 by robthefool

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS continues to downgrade temperatures into next week especially Wednesday and Thursday. Looks like ti will turn cool byt the end of the week. Hope it changes.

[Frosty.]

As expected, the GFS 12z has toned down the early may cold snap shown on the 6z but it may reappear on some subsequent runs if the general pattern continues to show a mid atlantic high and a scandi trough, small changes in the high position will make a huge difference. Next week shows pressure rising in SE Britain with a warm and mostly settled week bar the odd shower on sunday, NW Britain will probably remain changeable at best and more likely unsettled and then a gradual erosion of the fine weather in the SE by next weekend with cooler more changeable conditions pushing south.

[ANYWEATHER]

GFS continues to downgrade temperatures into next week especially Wednesday and Thursday. Looks like ti will turn cool byt the end of the week. Hope it changes.

Yes, looks as though the further southeast you are the better chances of more settled weather,perhaps some good chances of "storms" in southeast Britain next week, and Sunday looks picticularly "interesting" for perhaps some heavy showers and the isolated Thunderstorms especially for the Midlands and Northeast England...well at least the skies will have something interesting to watch and photograph for a change....!!

Edited April 23, 2010 by ANYWEATHER

[rmc1987]

BBC forecast for London shows the cloud and wet weather over the next 5 days. Tomorrow looks like the best day at 19c and sunny. Then from Sunday until Wednesday temps of 18c/19c with light rain showes on Sunday and Wednesday and cloud/sun on Monday and Tuesday.

At one point it looked like we may get in to the low 20's, waited so long for a warm spell as you can imagine. Bit of an climax in my opinion to be fair but got to take what given I guess!

[Derp Patrol]

It's still showing temperatures in the low 20s for my area..

It's very likely that we will reach the low twenties, we will have a warmer air mass over us, and the past few days, the BBC has under estimated the temperatures during the day by at least 2C.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/8

[rmc1987]

It's still showing temperatures in the low 20s for my area..

It's very likely that we will reach the low twenties, we will have a warmer air mass over us, and the past few days, the BBC has under estimated the temperatures during the day by at least 2C.

http://news.bbc.co.u...ther/forecast/8

Ah yes that must have recently updated within last 30mins, with a nudge on temp for tomorrow. From Sunday looking similar as earlier though with showers breaking out on Sunday.

Edited April 23, 2010 by rmc1987

[Cheese Rice]

A very interesting GFS run, if it was to come of there would be wintry showers and even snow. Snow has become a rarity in May in the last 20 years, even though generally it wasn't that common in the first place. I have yet to see snow in May and if the GFS was to come of there would be a good chance for some heavy wintry showers.

[skifreak]

The GFS is having a laugh... The Mother of all Thaws for a week up to the holiday weekend, then snow all weekend long on the Scottish Mountains on the 18z! B)

There goes the hoped for the classic spring weather for late April, early May, high pressure, warmish days, cool nights, a slow gradual daytime thaw mitigated by the overnight frosts and beautiful blue skies and T-shirt skiing for the holiday weekend, while tourists mill around at the top of CairnGorm's funicular or Nevis Range's Gondola scratching their heads trying to work out how it can be T-shirt weather with snow on the ground! :lol:

[Thundery wintry showers]

Average for late April in London is about 16C/17C according to the weather channel.

I think they're overdoing it slightly but not by much, about 15C may be nearer the mark.

ECMWF also supports some kind of potent northerly into early FI albeit a short-lived one. Before that generally sunny dry warm weather holds on in the SE until Tuesday but watch out for some convection in the east and south late on Sunday.

[Eugene]

GFS continues to downgrade temperatures into next week especially Wednesday and Thursday. Looks like ti will turn cool byt the end of the week. Hope it changes

Well this past week has been wonderful, cold starts to the morning and then warming up quickly, i am am actually very happy with the runs as we desperately need the rain, the ground is really uncomfortable to walk on ask any rambler and no good for your ankles, it will still feel warm by mid morning onwards when the sun gets to work anyway so why you moaning, i dont hope it changes unless you dont care about the countryside, its as dry as a bone out there and rock hard.

[Frosty.]

Some lovely cold gfs 00z charts showing from next weekend onwards with a chance of more snow for northern hills and widespread frosts B) today looks the warmest and sunniest day apart from the far north which looks rainy and cold, tomorrow will be humid with scattered thundery showers and then much of next week looks rather cloudy but warmish with a little patchy rain in the north and west but probably brighter in the southeast but a colder and more cyclonic spell will probably follow in around seven days time. :lol:

[mushymanrob]

frosts will damage plants and wildlife, especially nesting birds, so i dont think they should be relished at this time of the year.

however the gfs 00z looks pretty normal, nothing too extreme either way and its a wetter outlook then of late which should be welcome.