Model Output Discussion

[SP1986]

I'm actually struggling to believe we will hit 21C outside the usually hotspots (London, Gravesend etc). I do believe the window will continue shortening for the settled, warm type weather. In the North and West it may well be that maximum temperatures may just touch 16-17C on one day then revert back to the 11-12C we've seen recently, we'll have to see on that one.

One thing that looks almost certain is that of a breakdown, whereby Atlantic air and low pressure will edge its way in, and there's a fairly probable outcome of a reversion back to arctic northerly air as a blocking high settles out to the west.

That said members in the SE and central UK should enjoy the few days of settled, warmer weather on offer as it will probably deliver the warmest temperatures of the year in a few places!

[Milhouse]

That said members in the SE and central UK should enjoy the few days of settled, warmer weather on offer as it will probably deliver the warmest temperatures of the year in a few places!

Now that would be an awful summer, not to exceed 21c at all. Almost impossible really for central areas of England. Birmingham recorded 42 days of 21c or more last summer and we regarded that as average/poor.

(edit: you must mean the year so far)

Edited April 22, 2010 by Milhouse

[shaky]

the ecmwf is much better today unfortunately the ukmo is a stinker.that would jus bring cloud and drizzle and horrible humid conditions

[johnholmes]

(edit: you must mean the year so far)

I'm quite sure that is what Stephen was posting about nothing to do with the summer, simply what the models were suggesting for next week!

Edited April 22, 2010 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

Models indicate a warm up as we go into the weekend and will include much if not all of next week with a generally S'ly flow becoming established which is good news for the north of britain which is so cool and unsettled currently, sadly, the anticyclone next week doesn't look like sticking around for any length of time and low pressure from the atlantic will probably be making inroads into the BI by the second half of next week with the southeast being last to lose the settled and warm / very warm weather.

[summer blizzard]

It does look to me as if the models have now downgraded this warm spell, both in duration and potency.

Sunday and wednesday, now look to be warm, but unsettled, while Monday and Tuesday still look to be warm and sunny away from the far north, with maxima still looking to peak in the mid twenties on wednesday with the 10C isotherm over us.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1442.png - Wednesday looks to be the hottest day

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1203.png - Tuesday looks to be the sunniest day

[Stormyking]

Certainly looks as though Wednesday will be the warmest day but looking lovely and warm all next week but with some unsettled weather as well.

Hope there will be some sort of thundery breakdown but can only hope :L

[kold weather]

Yeah a slight downgrade perhaps as the HP is now progged to be just a little further SE then was orginally expected. That being said I expect the temps it was progging before of 22-23C probably will still be roughly the max as it is probably slightly under-estimating the temps beyond 48hrs, which is to be expected.

[MR EXTREMES]

Yeah a slight downgrade perhaps as the HP is now progged to be just a little further SE then was orginally expected. That being said I expect the temps it was progging before of 22-23C probably will still be roughly the max as it is probably slightly under-estimating the temps beyond 48hrs, which is to be expected.

i think also the length of time high pressure might be under estimated.

well hoping anyway its been lovely.

[Derp Patrol]

Like others have said, the sun is so strong now that it will feel pleasant in the sun whatever the temperature. The past 2 weeks have delivered typically average temperatures for late April here of about 15C, but in the sun it feels much warmer. The past 2 weeks have been what I would describe as 'shorts and T-shirt during the day, jumper and trousers at night' weather, but next week it looks as if we will have warmer nights with the clear skies, holding into double figures for some parts.

Warm spell still is looking good for most of the country.

[rmc1987]

I was looking forward to nice warm sunshine but it's sounding like it'll be both less warm and sunny than first thought. Well from what I can gather anyway.

Although it seems to be changing a bit in terms of exact placing of the HP...

Edited April 22, 2010 by rmc1987

[reef]

Quite an interesting GFS 12z from a weather enthusiast's point of view. A classic spring switcharound. On Wednesday its warm and sunny with temperatures approaching 22-23C. However 4 days later we have maxes of 6-7C with heavy wintry showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

Its FI and probably wont happen, but we've not had a switcharound like that in May since 1997. It would certainly be impressive.

[Costa Del Fal]

Next week still looks ok but nothing really different with temperatures up a few degrees. All in all its downgraded as usual. Hopefully the temps are underestimated.

[Milhouse]

Next week still looks ok but nothing really different with temperatures up a few degrees. All in all its downgraded as usual. Hopefully the temps are underestimated.

We are set to see highs of at least 20c on 5 days right through to Wednesday, possibly Thursday. I think thats pretty good for this time of year and about 6/7c up on what we are getting at the moment. Last year it took until 28th May to achieve 20c here.

[Stormyking]

Some very Interesting looking charts on 12z as others are saying, from 20c +, then down to 6-7c would be interesting to see and would jsut show of how much and how quick spring can change.

I reckon 2nd week of may onwards will have a nice warm up again and yes i know its far out but just what i think

[phil nw.]

Quite a contrast in weather in the next 2-3 days.

Many places enjoying higher temps. and sunshine but Scotland,particularly the North, much colder with hill snow at times.

However higher temps. spreading to all by Sunday with High pressure close to South by T96hrs.according to GFS and UKMO 12z.

[frostyjoe]

Some very Interesting looking charts on 12z as others are saying, from 20c +, then down to 6-7c would be interesting to see and would jsut show of how much and how quick spring can change.

I reckon 2nd week of may onwards will have a nice warm up again and yes i know its far out but just what i think

ahhha... just be very you people from the south east try and claim the record... in parts of scotland and ni we got down to 1-2c maxes on one wednedsday and it was snowing all day with upto 2-3 foots of snow on the hills (which is still there) and by that saturday it was upto to 20c. Snow is still here you can see it from my house... plus this warm spell is only warm for that rotten (no offence in the summer they are always the warmest!) south east not really fair.. it looks like northern areas will struggle to 12c!

Edited April 22, 2010 by frostyjoe

[Stormyking]

ahhha... just be very you people from the south east try and claim the record... in parts of scotland and ni we got down to 1-2c maxes on one wednedsday and it was snowing all day with upto 2-3 foots of snow on the hills (which is still there) and by that saturday it was upto to 20c. Snow is still here you can see it from my house... plus this warm spell is only warm for the south east not really fair.. it looks like northern areas will struggle to 12c!

lol, would you say the Isle of wight is part SE or C/S england?

Anway that sounds amazing 2-3ft of snow is alot and then 20c sounds even more of an amazing change withing 3 days.

I hope northern areas get some of the warmth, im sure some places in the north will get above 12c

Anyway will be Intersting to see what 18z comes up with and hope northern areas will get warmth too

[Derp Patrol]

The south east will (nearly) always get the best summer weather because of where it is situated. I do sometimes feel sorry for those in the NW especially as they usually get the worst of the weather, but to be fair, up north you do get better winters most of the time! I find it fascinating though how in some set ups, it can be 30C and sunny in London, and 15C and cloudy on the north east coast.

[SP1986]

I think the potent northerly is very likely after than milder/warmer spell. Then I think that could persist due to the anchorage of the Greenland High (very tough to move once fixed). I think eventually it will lead to a 2007 style summer in my humble opinion.

[joggs]

I think the potent northerly is very likely after than milder/warmer spell. Then I think that could persist due to the anchorage of the Greenland High (very tough to move once fixed). I think eventually it will lead to a 2007 style summer in my humble opinion.

Could well be right SP because i share the same thoughts! A few days ago the pattern looked like developing slower to me, but now ecm esp is showing a quicker pattern? though you cant read to much past t120 in my view

[damianslaw]

Not sure where these mid 20's temps are coming from next wednesday as some have suggested, certainly can't see the majority of the country seeing much more than 20 degrees and that will be reserved for Sunday, by mid week next week the atlantic will have crashed through the high, only the far SE is likely to hold onto temps in the low 20's bracket.

Signs that we end up with a potent northerly later next week, heights building to the NW, could be a classic switcharound - something to keep an eye on.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, the evolution does remind me rather of 6-7 May 1997 with the depression moving out into the North Sea and a tongue of very cold air cutting in from the north- though it would not be quite as potent temperature wise I don't think. Still, May 1997's northerly was notably potent with sleet or snow delivered to a large majority of the country on that occasion, so that in itself wouldn't rule out fairly widespread wintriness in the showers.

In fairness we are long overdue an instance of fairly widespread lowland sleet/snow in May- in the past 30 years it happened in 1981, 1982, 1987, 1993, 1995 and 1997 and also to a lesser extent in 1989 (surprisingly given how warm dry and sunny the month as a whole was) and 1996, but has never happened since. That's not to say it will definitely happen though.

[phil nw.]

I think the potent northerly is very likely after than milder/warmer spell. Then I think that could persist due to the anchorage of the Greenland High (very tough to move once fixed). I think eventually it will lead to a 2007 style summer in my humble opinion.

There is little to suggest a "potent northerly" in the 12z runs.

No Upper heights are modelled in the Greenland area so i don`t see any evidence of anything more than a chance of a brief North/North Westerly incursion from a transient ridge, beyond the reliable timeframe.

The mean height comparisons show High pressure close to the South of the UK and a South Westerly flow.

http://www.meteo.psu...WF_0z/test8.gif

As for a repeat of Summer 2007 i have yet to see any link to suggest such a setup in April would lead to a poor Summer.

Edited April 22, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[summer blizzard]

GFS18z throws a spanner in the works for the Bank Holiday weekend in that it does'nt even bring in the northerly, high pressure just rebuilds back over us.