Model Output Discussion

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I remember that you predicted the January snow events quite well from over 2 weeks out

The models have been showing some sort of warmer spell in about 7 days time for quite a while now, and I think that it is pretty likely.

At the moment it's still very nice down here though, lots of sunshine and quite pleasant reaching the mid-high teens for most of this week probably, and if some of these FI charts did come off, temperatures in the low to mid twenties would not be unrealistic and it would cap off a brilliant April from my point of view.

After the wind and rain in the second half of March, this quiet sunny spell has been so welcome. It does look like some of us may avoid any unsettled weather and stay predomiantly dry with a good chance of some more nice weather next week by the look of the models

[HighPressure]

I could do with a weather forecast for London this Sat(24th) as I have a big out door kids event planned and some nice weather would be great. The last one we held it was dry but it was so cold the kids all turned blue :blink:

Cheers for your help.

Edited April 19, 2010 by HighPressure

[BlueHedgehog074]

It looks like the settled weather will continue for the next few days (except for some continued wintry weather for the far North), until the change in a more South-Westerly or Southerly wind direction which is indeed shown on the ECMWF, the GFS and the BBC 5 day weather forcast for around April 24th. This should help to draw in some warmer air from the South with more milder temperatures predicted

My apologises. I accidently mistook April 24th as being a Friday instead of a Saturday (and clearly with it being Monday now, the current BBC 5 day weather forcast goes upto Friday 23rd April).

It looks like the latest GFS update is going for a touch cooler day for the Midlands tommorrow with temperatures perhaps still peaking in double figures for the Southern areas, especially around lunchtime.

[Derp Patrol]

After the wind and rain in the second half of March, this quiet sunny spell has been so welcome. It does look like some of us may avoid any unsettled weather and stay predomiantly dry with a good chance of some more nice weather next week by the look of the models

Yes, it seems like this year most people have got some nice weather for their personal preferences. Winter saw a good long spell of cold for the coldies, March delivered some more reminders of winter and some unsettled weather for those that like it, and April so far has been dry, very sunny for some, and with pleasant temperatures. Hopefully this can continue into summer as well

[HighPressure]

Just to add a little more detail, temperatures should reach into the mid-high teens across a good part of England with not too much cloudcover the further south and east you are, so it should feel warm in the sunshine.

That sounds ideal, thank you for that its appreciated.

[Milhouse]

ECM is an absolute stunner. Looking warm from the weekend onwards, possibly very warm.

[Derp Patrol]

ECM is an absolute stunner. Looking warm from the weekend onwards, possibly very warm.

I see what you mean

25C likely from those charts, the exact details may not be clear for a few more days, but a spell of high pressure dominated weather looks likely from Friday onwards..

[Milhouse]

I see what you mean

25C likely from those charts, the exact details may not be clear for a few more days, but a spell of high pressure dominated weather looks likely from Friday onwards..

And my week off work which i was innitially having doubts about looks like it couldnt be any better. There will innevitably be a downgrade in upcoming runs but TBH i will be satisfied with a dry week with pleasantly warm temperatures (17-20c) which is still very good for this time of year. Any extra heat will be a bonus.

[joggs]

I see what you mean

25C likely from those charts, the exact details may not be clear for a few more days, but a spell of high pressure dominated weather looks likely from Friday onwards..

Yeh quite a good ecm if you like things turnjng warmer. Always the threat of more cloud further nw you are, then turning brighter for most in the more unreliable timeframe. Would thet be a fair assesment?

[Ben_Cambs]

ECM 12z is very good if you want warm weather, would be a very pleasant week next week if this run came off, with a solid HP building up on this run just to the SE of the UK, bringing in a warm southerly flow. I suspect from the T+216 chart would indeed bring maxes of up to 25C in the south east, up to 20C in the North too. There are some very warm options from the GEFS ensembles too tonight. I do think though, with such a set up, that eventually, the Atlantic with LP systems will attempt to sink the HP sometime in Early May, IMO. This week, showers will affect Scotland at first, wintry above 350m+, with more cloud in Scotland and Northern Ireland, but cloud should break easily in England and Wales, and should give another pleasant week of weather, with the threat of more unsettled weather in the North West of Britain

[Derp Patrol]

Yeh quite a good ecm if you like things turnjng warmer. Always the threat of more cloud further nw you are, then turning brighter for most in the more unreliable timeframe. Would thet be a fair assesment?

Yep, although it depends where the high pressure is positioned, unfortunately those in the NW always seem to faie the worst..

[mushymanrob]

im forecasted maxes of around 5c tomorrow.. do you think that the showers falling will be of snow?

?..... where for? certainly not for 99% of the country!

nice broad agreement for a warm up over the weekend and into next week and remaining predominantly dry.

[frostyjoe]

?..... where for? certainly not for 99% of the country!

nice broad agreement for a warm up over the weekend and into next week and remaining predominantly dry.

Well anywhere north of Belfast in the uk is forecasted these temps except on coasts....

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS turns near very warm next week with 22/23c for next Tuesday but obviously this will downgrade im sure but nice to see some very pleasant temperatures coming in from this weekend hopefully! England and Wales look especially likely to do well from this Weekend.

Edited April 20, 2010 by Blizzards

[Frosty.]

At last it looks like the volcano ash will be blown away from the uk when we reach friday and the weekend onwards with the gfs 00z showing winds switching more sw'ly from the azores so it should become quite warm, especially in sheltered eastern areas with temps well into the 60's or even low 70's F, still unsettled in the northwest although milder than currently but fine and warm in the south & east.

Edited April 20, 2010 by Frosty039

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Would prefer to see the high as per the ECM yesterday morning. Still giving fine weather and lots of sunshine but with the wind blowing a pleasant and refreshing easterly. The problem with the high being just to the south and south east is that south/south westerlies will occur instead. Also low pressure will keep trying to move in from the north west.

However, settled weather of any kind is not to be sneezed at with the longer days, and potential for wintry spells virtually passed by anyway, and as long as the lows are kept away then all is good

[Thundery wintry showers]

Would prefer to see the high as per the ECM yesterday morning. Still giving fine weather and lots of sunshine but with the wind blowing a pleasant and refreshing easterly. The problem with the high being just to the south and south east is that south/south westerlies will occur instead. Also low pressure will keep trying to move in from the north west.

However, settled weather of any kind is not to be sneezed at with the longer days, and potential for wintry spells virtually passed by anyway, and as long as the lows are kept away then all is good

Only in your opinion- remember the past discussions revealing that some people are not incredibly fussed on cloudy settled weather and in particular North Sea low cloud? Southerlies might be more prone to bringing low cloud and the like to Hastings than easterlies but across the UK as a whole the reverse is true, and especially so in eastern Scotland and north-east England.

A southerly can indeed allow low pressure to approach the north-west, but then again an easterly can allow low pressure to approach from the south-west- take the second week of June 2007 for example, which led into something of a washout.

As it happens we could well be in for one of those spring "switch-arounds" over the coming week- about time really. The next few days look like having sharp frosts and then, crucially, all three models have high pressure building to the east and not just to the south, promoting a southerly rather than westerly or south-westerly. As long as this scenario keeps up over subsequent runs most places should see plenty of warm sunshine in association with the pattern, and perhaps even the first "Spanish plume" event of the season.

[cooling climate]

Would prefer to see the high as per the ECM yesterday morning. Still giving fine weather and lots of sunshine but with the wind blowing a pleasant and refreshing easterly. The problem with the high being just to the south and south east is that south/south westerlies will occur instead. Also low pressure will keep trying to move in from the north west.

However, settled weather of any kind is not to be sneezed at with the longer days, and potential for wintry spells virtually passed by anyway, and as long as the lows are kept away then all is good

Yes the settled fine spell a few days ago was great, a bit nippy round the north sea coasts perhaps and

a little more cloudy but inland it was lovely.

Some posters have a habit of jumping the gun as soon as you mention easterly they immediately think

gloomy low cloud (haar) muck which is not the case.

[johnholmes]

Would prefer to see the high as per the ECM yesterday morning. Still giving fine weather and lots of sunshine but with the wind blowing a pleasant and refreshing easterly. The problem with the high being just to the south and south east is that south/south westerlies will occur instead. Also low pressure will keep trying to move in from the north west.

However, settled weather of any kind is not to be sneezed at with the longer days, and potential for wintry spells virtually passed by anyway, and as long as the lows are kept away then all is good

you are of course entitled to your views T but that is not to say that others will agree with you. 'blowing a pleasant and refreshing easterly', may be so where you live but those who live on/near the east coast might not agree with the pleasant bit. Living with it is not the same as sampling it for the occasional holiday break on that coast.

Nor the last bit,' as the lows are kept away then all is good'

Again a very personal viewpoint.

IF the lows keep away for too long then a good many will be having various water restrictions but that is obviously a long way off.

I think we all know one another's' preferences, those of us who have been on NW for some time, so I would give my personal preference and ask that we give our view on how the models are showing the weather at whatever time scale but leave out the personal preferences but I suppose I'm whistling in the dark as usual!

As to a comment, for those still struggling to understand the charts, then the main models at most time scales from about T+72 onwards out with GFS to around T+288 or so, are suggesting that the surface high will be in a position to give a fairly dry spell for many and a warm one too, possibly verging on 'hot' by definition for a few days in mid England.

The longer term 'drivers' all do suggest that the prolonged spell of blocking to the north may be missing for most of the end of April into the first 7-10 days of May. As to just where the major upper trough-ridge settles down then it would seem with a trough somewhere in the Atlantic and a ridge nearby over Europe is perhaps the most likely from current predictions from things like QBO down to AO level.

Edited April 20, 2010 by johnholmes

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yes the settled fine spell a few days ago was great, a bit nippy round the north sea coasts perhaps and

a little more cloudy but inland it was lovely.

Some posters have a habit of jumping the gun as soon as you mention easterly they immediately think

gloomy low cloud (haar) muck which is not the case.

Agreed CC

God people take this all so seriously! It is only a wind direction, lol,and doesn't need an uptight thesis on the merits of southerly or an easterly Within the context of talking about weather I might prefer an easterly wind but it hardly dictates my daily routine!

I don't actually mind what others preferences are . Each to their own. As far as stating personal preferences are concerned there are a majority of posters who do the same quite frequently at this time of year, so I am not sure that I am any different. Especially also as someone who has endlessly usually backed up in detail what they say about the models over time, then I certainly don't need asking to do that now.

TWS - I actually live in the Sussex/Kent countryside - not right on the coast. And one final moan (to 'J' lol!) can we desist with this 'T' business. Sorry, but I just find it irritating. I am not anonymous and it does stand for my actual name Otherwise just NSSC will do, which are initials for a board user name. Or even using nothing at all is just as good.

Many thanks. End of whinge.

Although the final warming of the polar vortex is late this year, the polar stratosphere has remained fragmented and weak through the Spring - carrying on from the winter. No surprise then to see so much blocking in the areas that we have.

[BlueHedgehog074]

As much as I would like the latest GFS update to come off, showing some very warm spells for next week with the placement of the high pressure being a great friend for bringing in some Southerly, and at times, South-Westerly winds, I do a have a slight feeling they may go back to more of a less warmer spell. Mind you, since the ECMWF have shown a strong buildage of High Pressure/Sea Level Pressure, with a decent duration of Southerly winds to really bring in some high concentrations of very warm temperatures to parts of the country, the GFS may end up following the trend of the ECMWF. Also, I think I seem to recall that the United Kingdom Met Office, were predicting similiar weather patterns to the ECMWF with very warm temperatures becoming established.

Nevertheless, having had a quick glare at the Met Office five to fifteen day outlook, some rather warm to occasionly warm weather can be expected for South and Eastern parts near the end of the period. Some unsettled weather, with spells of rain and showers are likely for places in the North and West, and the GFS go along with this idea, though this will be great news for people who love the weather to be very mixed, or who enjoy the rain.

I assume that ECMWF would show the most settled pattern with that strong area of high pressure really establishing itself the further into the period?

[mushymanrob]

Well anywhere north of Belfast in the uk is forecasted these temps except on coasts....

dunno which forecast your looking at mate... ive not seen 1 prediction of a max of 5c anywhere in the uk for today or anyday.

nice to see the warm up still being shown on the gfs...

as for the old easterly debate, the point is that easterlies in spring invariably bring low cloud off the north sea, especially to eastern areas.

the gfs is again a pretty dry run, and tbh we are starting to need rain, trouble is with our weather, its either too dry for too long or too wet for too long (well thats the way it seems)..... odds on for another washout summer me thinks after the spring drought breaks! lol.

[johnholmes]

Agreed CC

God people take this all so seriously! It is only a wind direction, lol,and doesn't need an uptight thesis on the merits of southerly or an easterly Within the context of talking about weather I might prefer an easterly wind but it hardly dictates my daily routine!

I don't actually mind what others preferences are . Each to their own. As far as stating personal preferences are concerned there are a majority of posters who do the same quite frequently at this time of year, so I am not sure that I am any different. Especially also as someone who has endlessly usually backed up in detail what they say about the models over time, then I certainly don't need asking to do that now.

TWS - I actually live in the Sussex/Kent countryside - not right on the coast. And one final moan (to 'J' lol!) can we desist with this 'T' business. Sorry, but I just find it irritating. I am not anonymous and it does stand for my actual name Otherwise just NSSC will do, which are initials for a board user name. Or even using nothing at all is just as good.

Many thanks. End of whinge.

Although the final warming of the polar vortex is late this year, the polar stratosphere has remained fragmented and weak through the Spring - carrying on from the winter. No surprise then to see so much blocking in the areas that we have.

hello Tamara

I did not realise people got so uptight about using a short hand, I'm quite happy for jh but each to our own

Nor, if it was directed at me, although I suspect it was aimed at TWS, was I aware of giving 'an uptight thesis', simply an explanation without bias as I've always tried to do for the benefit of those less well versed in model reading than such as yourself. It is of course 'only a wind direction' but impinges on some far more than others, ask any farme working his fields close by the east coast. It does also affect his living as, the wind is often dry and thus leaches moisture out of his soil thereby lessening any crop output he is growing! So I was actually being fairly precise and am I not allowed to make my point but you are?

Edited April 20, 2010 by johnholmes

[BlueHedgehog074]

dunno which forecast your looking at mate... ive not seen 1 prediction of a max of 5c anywhere in the uk for today or anyday.

nice to see the warm up still being shown on the gfs...

as for the old easterly debate, the point is that easterlies in spring invariably bring low cloud off the north sea, especially to eastern areas.

the gfs is again a pretty dry run, and tbh we are starting to need rain, trouble is with our weather, its either too dry for too long or too wet for too long (well thats the way it seems)..... odds on for another washout summer me thinks after the spring drought breaks! lol.

I see what you mean. While I would love to see it get warmer next week (shown on various forcasts/models), I agree that we could do with seeing a bit more of an active weather pettern, too. I think the plants could do with having some rain to prevent them from completly drying out (although I would still try to water them should the dry weather continue for a while).

I personally hope that this Summer will be the exception to the rule if this April ends up finishing off on a settled note.

Edit: Ah sugar! I should note that when talking about my predictions, I accidently looked at the ECMWF 12Z update instead of the newer 0Z update, where it shows the build up of pressure not quite as high than the one on the 12Z update (April 19th), with more of a South-Westerly flow.

Edited April 20, 2010 by Rainbow Snow

[summer blizzard]

GFS and ECWMF both show a very warm end to April with a thundery breakdown to boot.

Fantastic charts at the moment, showing plenty of sunshine and very little rain in the reliable timeframe aside from sunday..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png - Very dry

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2042.png - very warm (25C maxima?)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2643.png - sunny and long lasting

Looks like a good week of warm, sunny weather to me!