Model Output Discussion

[Stormyking]

Hmm, In my opinion the 12z run looks colder than 06z, Im not sure what do other people think?

Though towards the end of the run like right at the end from T+ 288 on wards looks pretty warmish but not like 06z, this wil probably change again but I do think end of the month will warm up and am keeping positive :unsure:

[joggs]

Hmm, In my opinion the 12z run looks colder than 06z, Im not sure what do other people think?

Though towards the end of the run like right at the end from T+ 288 on wards looks pretty warmish but not like 06z, this wil probably change again but I do think end of the month will warm up and am keeping positive

Hi stormking and all! been a floater through the last couple of years and been here in spirit through the ups and downs:drinks: anyway decided to take the plunge! so please be understanding while i get the hang of things. Also i am a novice with a little understanding of weather etc whilst hoping to learn more so a big thanks to everyone(the big hitters esp!) for all your oppinions. Let BATTLE COMMENSE

[Stormyking]

Hi stormking and all! been a floater through the last couple of years and been here in spirit through the ups and downs:drinks: anyway decided to take the plunge! so please be understanding while i get the hang of things. Also i am a novice with a little understanding of weather etc whilst hoping to learn more so a big thanks to everyone(the big hitters esp!) for all your oppinions. Let BATTLE COMMENSE

Hi Joggs and Welcome

I too have only started to try and join in with the model output discussions and have only jsut learned of what the charts means and how to understand things and i still know very little about about the weather compared to people on Net weather and I think this forum is Great to try and learn from and hope it helps me for the future.

Anyway does anyone know what time the 18z starts coming out is it 9:30pm or 10:30pm?

Thanks

[joggs]

Again stormyking thanks! hope everyone gets the weather they want in the coming months:help: looking at the models today and its safe to say getting gradually cooler with brighter skies?

[BlueHedgehog074]

Hi stormking and all! been a floater through the last couple of years and been here in spirit through the ups and downs:drinks:anyway decided to take the plunge! so please be understanding while i get the hang of things. Also i am a novice with a little understanding of weather etc whilst hoping to learn more so a big thanks to everyone(the big hitters esp!) for all your oppinions. Let BATTLE COMMENSE

Howdy.

Do not worry about it, I was also a bit of a beginner l when I first joined here, but I feel like I already know more about the weather and what the maps and models show, with still more to learn. You should find after time, that learning about various aspects of the weather becomes more and more straight forward, although I realise this will vary for people. And well done for taking the plunge; it is really great to have you here.

I think, I would say that this latest model update is indeed just a little colder than the previous update and the GFS appeared to have shown more of a truer Northerly wind for Sunday, though this becomes a bit tangly near the end of the day, with higher pressure trying to move more Eastwards (with higher millibar numbers), sort of upsetting the flow. Overall, a colder day for Sunday compared to the last update, but it looks like most of the showers/precipitation will be restricted to the North with very cold 850 hpa upper temperatures.

@ Stormyking: If I am being honest with you, I'm not particulary sure of the exact time when the models and maps update, but I think it is usually somewhere around 10:30pm to 11:30pm for the 18Z one.

Edited April 14, 2010 by Rainbow Snow

[Stormyking]

Howdy.

Do not worry about it, I was also a bit of a beginner l when I first joined here, but I feel like I already know more about the weather and what the maps and models show, with still more to learn. You should find after time, that learning about various aspects of the weather becomes more and more straight forward, although I realise this will vary for people. And well done for taking the plunge; it is really great to have you here.

I think, I would say that this latest model update is indeed just a little colder than the previous update and the GFS appeared to have shown more of a truer Northerly wind for Sunday, though this becomes a bit tangly near the end of the day, with higher pressure trying to move more Eastwards (with higher millibar numbers), sort of upsetting the flow. Overall, a colder day for Sunday compared to the last update, but it looks like most of the showers/precipitation will be restricted to the North with very cold 850 hpa upper temperatures.

@ Stormyking: If I am being honest with you, I'm not particulary sure of the exact time when the models and maps update, but I think it is usually somewhere around 10:30pm to 11:30pm.

Okay thankyou for that , If i remember they used to coem out aroun 9:30ish in the winter i guess now 10:30 because of clocks going forward 1 hour.

[BlueHedgehog074]

No problem. Yeah, I notcied people used to say that the updates which come out now are later than the ones which used to come out during the colder period due to the time leap.

[joggs]

Howdy.

Do not worry about it, I was also a bit of a beginner l when I first joined here, but I feel like I already know more about the weather and what the maps and models show, with still more to learn. You should find after time, that learning about various aspects of the weather becomes more and more straight forward, although I realise this will vary for people. And well done for taking the plunge; it is really great to have you here.

I think, I would say that this latest model update is indeed just a little colder than the previous update and the GFS appeared to have shown more of a truer Northerly wind for Sunday, though this becomes a bit tangly near the end of the day, with higher pressure trying to move more Eastwards (with higher millibar numbers), sort of upsetting the flow. Overall, a colder day for Sunday compared to the last update, but it looks like most of the showers/precipitation will be restricted to the North with very cold 850 hpa upper temperatures.

@ Stormyking: If I am being honest with you, I'm not particulary sure of the exact time when the models and maps update, but I think it is usually somewhere around 10:30pm to 11:30pm for the 18Z one.

Thanks for the heads up RainbowSnow much appreciated:drinks:

[Frosty.]

A cold ECM 12z for northern britain, much as the earlier gfs 12z, snow should feature in the forecast for northern hills and mountains from this coming weekend and then all through next week but it doesn't look cold in the south but far from warm either it must be said.

[damianslaw]

Models all in agreement of a change this weekend to slightly more unsettled and colder conditions especially for the north with the sub 528 dam line crossing into northern england by Sunday meaning any precipitation over higher ground in the north will certainly be of a wintry flavour and quite possibly on lower ground in the far NE.

Thereafter, the signals are for continued mid atlantic ridging with heights building into Greenland with the northern arm of the jet tilting to a NW-SE trajectory, which will mean little chance of a return to mild weather. Further shortwave developments to the north west are likely, ECM evolution for low pressure to move down the North Sea seems quite plausible.

A cold and in the main fairly settled outlook - the more settled the further south you go, the north looks like it is going to see a fairly sustained cold interlude.

[Thundery wintry showers]

ECMWF's scenario past T+144 looks like a pretty "clean" northerly to me with minimal disturbances and mixing, so I would expect sunshine and showers from that setup and the showers would probably be wintry at times especially in the north. GFS keeps high pressure closer by and the UKMO does so to a larger extent. All three models suggest a cold bright outlook rather than a cold cloudy one.

[Ben_Cambs]

The GFS 18z comes out between 10:30pm-11:45pm in BST Time and 9:30pm-10:45pm while we are in GMT time for those who had asked earlier in this thread. Also here is a list here of the times the charts come out:

http://forum.netweat...hart-timetable/

Edited April 14, 2010 by Snowman0697

[snowfish]

Models all in agreement of a change this weekend to slightly more unsettled and colder conditions especially for the north with the sub 528 dam line crossing into northern england by Sunday meaning any precipitation over higher ground in the north will certainly be of a wintry flavour and quite possibly on lower ground in the far NE.

Thereafter, the signals are for continued mid atlantic ridging with heights building into Greenland with the northern arm of the jet tilting to a NW-SE trajectory, which will mean little chance of a return to mild weather. Further shortwave developments to the north west are likely, ECM evolution for low pressure to move down the North Sea seems quite plausible.

A cold and in the main fairly settled outlook - the more settled the further south you go, the north looks like it is going to see a fairly sustained cold interlude.

Hope the dam line stays where it should- not interested in anything cool/cold now - hoping that towards the end of the run summer returns......PLEASE!!!!

[johnholmes]

With reference by a couple of posters above to chart schedules and learning please go our Net Wx Guides area. A search through there will give the chart times, what and when, also loads of items that will help you understand some of the terms you see used, explanations of weather, synoptics, you name it and its probably there.

Well worth taking time out to read and perhaps bookmark at least some of them for future reference.

Welcome to those recently joined-I'm sure you will enjoy your time in here.

If you have any questions please ask-there will always be someone who can help.

Edited April 14, 2010 by johnholmes

[Stormyking]

With reference by a couple of posters above to chart schedules and learning please go our Net Wx Guides area. A search through there will give the chart times, what and when, also loads of items that will help you understand some of the terms you see used, explanations of weather, synoptics, you name it and its probably there.

Well worth taking time out to read and perhaps bookmark at least some of them for future reference.

Welcome to those recently joined-I'm sure you will enjoy your time in here.

If you have any questions please ask-there will always be someone who can help.

Hi John and thank you for that, It is very useful and interesting and am already enjoying it in here and would love to become a common poster and get involved as my life is basically mostly weather :lol:

Hmm 18z defiantly looks warmer, from T+ 240 onwards shows some very nice temperatures by the look of it so fingers crossed.

[Derp Patrol]

Forget 20C! 30C would not be far off if FI did happen, with uppers of 15C very close to the south east of the UK. Chances of this happening are low though as it is so far out. However, plumes have been showing in FI quite frequently during the past week or so.

Edited April 15, 2010 by robthefool

[Stormyking]

Forget 20C! 30C would not be far off if FI did happen, with uppers of 15C very close to the south east of the UK. Chances of this happening are low though as it is so far out. However, plumes have been showing in FI quite frequently during the past week or so.

30C Would be amazing for April.

Can i ask what does a plume look like?

[mushymanrob]

interesting 00z, another warm one :lol:

the question is, will the low coming off iceland deepen as it moves east and drag in northerlies (like the ecm suggests) or will it remain shallow allowing higher pressure to build to its south? as the gfs currently suggests.

[Frosty.]

The GFS 00z is less cold than yesterday but scotland, especially the northeast should still see some wintry showers this weekend and again during next week and most of the uk should see some frosts for a while but in around a week it shows a warmer spell developing.

Edited April 15, 2010 by Frosty039

[Guest]

30C Would be amazing for April.

Can i ask what does a plume look like?

Amazing but perfectly possible. If you look at the temp records from Torro then 29.4C has been reached in mid-April before, so I'd guess that by the third or fourth week 30C is possible, but it still would be unlikely to happen:

http://www.torro.org.uk/TORRO/britwxextremes/maxtemps.php

Edited April 15, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z is still showing quite a strong N'ly for a time next week but only really affecting NE Britain although it will become colder everywhere by sunday with frosts becoming widespread but with plenty of sunshine it will feel pleasant out of the wind, NE Scotland will probably catch most of the wintry showers this weekend and then again at times throughout next week but there are signs that high pressure will begin to push north eventually and bring warmer and more settled weather to southern britain at least, probably remaining unsettled in the north but temps recovering to average later.

[Weather-history]

Amazing but perfectly possible. If you look at the temp records from Torro then 29.4C has been reached in mid-April before, so I'd guess that by the third or fourth week 30C is possible, but it still would be unlikely to happen:

http://www.torro.org.uk/TORRO/britwxextremes/maxtemps.php

You would think so but as I pointed out a few weeks ago, suprisingly there are hardly any notable hot days at the end of April in the record books. 25.0C is the highest maximum ever recorded for March and yet the highest maximum for the 30th April is a dodgy 26.1C.

Edited April 15, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Frank Trough]

Today's 06z looking quite similar to yesterday's, again showing a bit of a warm up next week from the south. i just caught the 00z GFS and would take anything over the next few days if i could bag FI from that run! (it would coincide with start of two weeks fishing holiday). ECM not quite so keen - i'm only following the models with one eye at present, but am i right in thinking that the GFS has been reasonably good in general trends of late? or not?!

[Stormyking]

Amazing but perfectly possible. If you look at the temp records from Torro then 29.4C has been reached in mid-April before, so I'd guess that by the third or fourth week 30C is possible, but it still would be unlikely to happen:

http://www.torro.org...es/maxtemps.php

Thank you for that even 29C would be excellant for April and also Thank you for the information Mr Data much appreciated.

Anyway 06z looks warmer from later next week onwards but could still change which i hope it dosent, can't wait till summer now .

[Optimus Prime]

UKMET has been the best performing chart followed closely by GFS 00 and ECM and the Canadian model. Very little in it.