Model Output Discussion

[The PIT]

Errr there's a brief outbreak in deep FI which will disappear on the next run. In the reliable time frame mainly warm and settled unless you're unlucky although we do need the rain.

[Frosty.]

Errr there's a brief outbreak in deep FI which will disappear on the next run. In the reliable time frame mainly warm and settled unless you're unlucky although we do need the rain.

Warm and settled but probably cloudier than today, today looks the best day of the current spell, slowly going downhill during next week from the north & west and then colder and more unsettled from next weekend seems likely although that is stretching model reliability to it's very limits.

[Derp Patrol]

I think they're overdoing it slightly but not by much, about 15C may be nearer the mark.

ECMWF also supports some kind of potent northerly into early FI albeit a short-lived one. Before that generally sunny dry warm weather holds on in the SE until Tuesday but watch out for some convection in the east and south late on Sunday.

Hmm I was thinking that as well.. that's more like early-mid May temps

[Thundery wintry showers]

frosts will damage plants and wildlife, especially nesting birds, so i dont think they should be relished at this time of the year.

There are certainly strong arguments against late frosts but those who do relish them or don't mind them should also be entitled to their preferences.

As for the longer-term outlook the northerly outbreak itself is still open to question, but we are looking likely to turn more unsettled, probably temporarily- a belt of rain followed by a few showery days I think.

[Costa Del Fal]

Well this past week has been wonderful, cold starts to the morning and then warming up quickly, i am am actually very happy with the runs as we desperately need the rain, the ground is really uncomfortable to walk on ask any rambler and no good for your ankles, it will still feel warm by mid morning onwards when the sun gets to work anyway so why you moaning, i dont hope it changes unless you dont care about the countryside, its as dry as a bone out there and rock hard.

Lol im not moaning. Im just disappointed that the usual downgrades have happened turning temperatures from above 20c to just around 17c now. Yes we do need some rain now but this always tends to be the driest time of the year anyway. I dont live far from the countryside and its great but this dry spell is all part of the fun of British weather. Knowing the UK it will probably rain for ages soon enough.

[damianslaw]

Short term - the SE looks like it will see a continuation of the dry spell with locally warm temperatures. Further north and west you go increasingly unsettled and wetter cloudier conditions though temps above average.

Middle of next week looks like we will see a more pronounced change as low pressure anchors itself to the north west of the country with heights developing strongly over Greenland, very high chance of a northerly developing by next weekend and a cold one to boot. Northerlies tend to reach their yearly maxim around now and can pack a punch with widespread frost and wintry showers in the northern half of the country.No sign of any strong azores ridging for the foreseeable future, looks like we will remain susceptible to northerly airstreams developing for a long while yet.

[johnholmes]

There are certainly strong arguments against late frosts but those who do relish them or don't mind them should also be entitled to their preferences.

If I may be permitted to say so Ian that comment has a hint of selfishness in it. Entitled to their preference but to keep going on about us all being entitled to whatever we want, be it severe storms, severe gales or widespread heavy snow is again to me, a touch selfish when we all know any of these can cause on occasion, death not just to wild life but to humans

.

I do honestly think its about time, before any of us posted, that we bear this in mind. Freedom of expression yes but I feel you are taking it too far.

Bask to the post you refer to and as was posted it CAN kill some wildlife-are you condoning that?

Edited April 24, 2010 by johnholmes

[Cheese Rice]

Back to the post you refer to and as was posted it CAN kill some wildlife-are you condoning that?

A little OTT, you are using a computer which will be powered by a coal power station, are you condoning that?

Edited April 24, 2010 by 10123

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't see why we should be made to feel guilty for enjoying, or not minding, something that we can't control. If one of us was controlling the weather and said "let's bring an exciting switch-around with a heatwave followed by a northerly with wintry showers and sharp frosts, and who cares about the deaths to wildlife", there might be a case for it. But nobody is controlling the weather. If those of us who enjoy spring northerlies suppress our desire for them and suppress our enjoyment of them when they do happen, out of "respect" (or whatever) for the wildlife, it isn't going to help towards saving any lives.

There is sometimes quite a strong ethos on this forum that it is wrong to not be averse to cold weather in spring, and implications like "if you aren't averse to late frosts in spring you want wildlife to die" reinforce that stance. But in fact, late frosts probably cause far less deaths than snowy outbreaks in winter, so maybe snow lovers in general are unreasonably selfish and should spare a thought for those affected by inconvenience and disruption and wish for mild moist winters instead? Indeed, maybe the majority of the population are selfish because most would enjoy a summer like 1976 or 1995 when we should be wishing for average summers with frequent light frontal rain because it causes less deaths to wildlife?

In fairness Mushymanrob may or may not have intended his initial post as an implication that people shouldn't want cold weather in spring, but it did come across that way.

[TonyH]

I think that perhaps prolonged cool wet spells in late Spring are more harmful to chicks in nests than the odd sharp late frost.

[mushymanrob]

oops... ive started something..

my point about frosts at this time of the year killing wildlife, especially nesting birds is one that i dare say no one wants, but relishing the conditions that WOULD result in a large fledgeling mortality is rather heartless imho. i might not like frosts, but by the time im out, its gone so on a personal level im not having a pop at frost lovers per se moaning about frosts. of course anyone has every right to like or dislike for any reason, any weather type, but relishing something that will impact on nature quite severely should be considered before posting. i agree with john.

anyway, tnh i cant see much of a frost threat tbh in the 06z. it might be cool at night, so what? a northern sector wind is pretty normal and as yet nothing severe is showing in any reliable timeframe.

I think that perhaps prolonged cool wet spells in late Spring are more harmful to chicks in nests than the odd sharp late frost.

most chicks are fed on insects/catterpillars/grubs, so the conditions that make these inactive or kill them are the worst for birds.... whether a short sharp frost is more harmful then a prolonged cool spell is anyones guess.

i know the cold spells in late april 81 and again in 84 resulted in the complete loss of broods in my nest boxes.

[MR EXTREMES]

wow model output meltdown come peeps cheer up the weather is lovely and im sure its like to change before the doom sets in so dont worry be happy lol.

[MP-R]

wow model output meltdown come peeps cheer up the weather is lovely and im sure its like to change before the doom sets in so dont worry be happy lol.

Exactly. A lovely day today at 20C, chance of thunderstorms/thundery showers tomorrow for some lucky ones, continuing warm to start next week then some long needed rain. A little on the chilly side but hey - won't it just make the next warm spell all that bit more inviting.

Edited April 24, 2010 by Michael Prys-Roberts

[Thundery wintry showers]

but relishing something that will impact on nature quite severely should be considered before posting. i agree with john.

Trouble is there isn't much consistency here. People get branded selfish for relishing wintry northerlies as part of a variable spring because of the damaging frosts, yet they don't generally get branded selfish for relishing hot dry sunny summers. But as the year 1995 starkly illustrated, summer droughts can be a lot more damaging to nature overall than late frosts and snowfalls within a variable spring.

I think this double standard exists because relishing wintry northerlies in spring is considered different whereas relishing hot dry sunny weather in summer is considered normal. It is usually more socially acceptable to condemn those who are different and brand them "selfish" than to do the same to those who conform to expected norms and this is what we're seeing here.

In the meantime not much hint of a northerly on the GFS, as the low pressure sticks around to the west bringing more of a south-westerly type.

[johnholmes]

Ian, why don't you simply post what the models show in your view and leave out the lecture every time you post.

I'll make an offer, as two of the forecasters on NW, I'll stop making any reference to which I prefer in the model discussion thread, posting those comments in the moaning thread-will you do the same please?

[The PIT]

Wouldn't worry about frosts nature has managed to deal with this from day one without having the planet wiped out every spring time.

Anyway back on subject is it me or does the 12 oz look more unsettled than the earlier run.

[The watcher]

I have to laugh, you's are argueing about something, no matter wether you want it or not is ALWAYS going to happen. Thats just nature for goodness sake, has been for millions of years. And yes, it can kill someone or something, but that has been going on for Millions of years too, thats just nature. I'll say it again....NATURE. If people didn't get killed by disasters there may be an overcrowding of people, animals, etc.

Has bugger all to do with selfishness, unless he's Thor or something or has a huge weather machine to create his own weather conditions.

[Snowyowl9]

We may have our best chance of a N-ly early this may cold enough for any snow showers for over a decade but only for Scotland mainly,there is certainly cold enough air to the north but the angle of approach isn`t right for the south.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2282.png

GFS 0z was most interestingly cold,although rather dry with HP just to the west later.

Before that it does look like a much warmer spell next week but probably getting wetter/humid or drizzly in the west.

[Frosty.]

Finally read through a lot of bickering posts to find someones view on the GFS 12z without success!!!

Anyway, the gfs 12z shows pressure building to the southeast of the BI after the unsettled blip tomorrow, southern & eastern england should be largely fine and warm for most of next week with southeast england probably sunniest but by contrast, it looks much cloudier in the north and west and a depression out in the atlantic looks like slowly taking control during the second half of next week with cooler and more cyclonic conditions and even the chance of a N'ly in early may with a risk of snow on northern hills, wintry weather keeps fighting back, hopefully during may we will have a widespread warm settled spell eventually.

[Ben_Cambs]

From the latest model output a Northerly looks like a strong possibility, and is shown on the ECM tonight too, and would deliver wintry showers to the North of the country, with sufficient heights building around Greenland. Would be a shock after this week coming

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

In the near future, I suspect a few places in the south will reach 20C tomorrow, and the warmer settled theme will continue for a while in the South East, but by mid-week in the North West it will turn cooler and more unsettled, and these conditions will head Eastwards and affect the whole country by next weekend, with temperatures returning to average for most areas.

[Solar Cycles]

Ian, why don't you simply post what the models show in your view and leave out the lecture every time you post.

I'll make an offer, as two of the forecasters on NW, I'll stop making any reference to which I prefer in the model discussion thread, posting those comments in the moaning thread-will you do the same please?

But what is wrong with a person preferring a particular weather pattern John? It happens all the time in here, people see charts that will bring their desired weather, and then ramp it up! Human nature John, I'm afraid we are stuck with it!

[Bottesford]

Lets draw a line under the personal preferences argument. No problem stating what you like/don't like in here but please keep the overall theme of discussion on the model output! Thanks!

[Bluebreezer54]

Lets draw a line under the personal preferences argument. No problem stating what you like/don't like in here but please keep the overall theme of discussion on the model output! Thanks!

Thank you. As someone who came here with the view of actually trying to learn soemthing about Model Outputs, and how to best interpret them, I must say some of the petty bickering in the last few pages has all but stopped me reading this topic.

[peterf]

oops... ive started something..

my point about frosts at this time of the year killing wildlife, especially nesting birds is one that i dare say no one wants, but relishing the conditions that WOULD result in a large fledgeling mortality is rather heartless imho. i might not like frosts, but by the time im out, its gone so on a personal level im not having a pop at frost lovers per se moaning about frosts. of course anyone has every right to like or dislike for any reason, any weather type, but relishing something that will impact on nature quite severely should be considered before posting. i agree with john.

anyway, tnh i cant see much of a frost threat tbh in the 06z. it might be cool at night, so what? a northern sector wind is pretty normal and as yet nothing severe is showing in any reliable timeframe.

most chicks are fed on insects/catterpillars/grubs, so the conditions that make these inactive or kill them are the worst for birds.... whether a short sharp frost is more harmful then a prolonged cool spell is anyones guess.

i know the cold spells in late april 81 and again in 84 resulted in the complete loss of broods in my nest boxes.

but relishing the conditions that WOULD result in a large fledgeling mortality is rather heartless imho

its nature and will find it's own level.the birds will simply lay another clutch and the process continues.by the time the 2nd clutch hatches there should be an abundance of insects to feed them.

Edited April 24, 2010 by peterf

[johnholmes]

Getting back to model commenting

My overall view of the longer term models, ECMWF and GFS to T+240 or 10 days is by 168 both of them show, and have over the past day or three, most of the time, that a coldish snap is likely by this time, and of course it's a BH weekend!

It does look a short lived affair though with temperatures climbing back to more normal levels for early May, although some doubt about this until about mid week of the first week in May.

Something of a north-south split perhaps with the higher than normal values more for the south than the north. Precipitation looks like being a shade below average in the period with some snow for the ski resorts but little snow elsewhere and not that much rain for southern most areas.

Beyond that and we really need to take rather more notice of the teleconnections than the GFS outputs to T+384 hours.

To me they suggest that its about a seasonal mix to expect, again with the north-south split. More unsettled in northern areas and more settled in the south.

No sign of either a major cold or hot outbreak, no major wind problems or persistent and heavy rainfalls, but at this range forecasting in that detail is very simplistic really.

Edited April 24, 2010 by johnholmes