Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull Volcano

[Coast]

Carry on the discussion regarding Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull Volcano here.

Latest NATS statement:

Statement on Icelandic volcanic eruption: Sunday April 18, 0300

The volcanic ash cloud from Iceland shows continued and extensive cover of the UK. Based on the latest information from the Met Office, NATS advises that the restrictions currently in place across UK controlled airspace will remain in place until at least 1900 (UK time) today, Sunday April 18.

We will continue to monitor Met Office information and will advise on further arrangements at approximately 0900 (UK time) later this morning.

www.nats.co.uk

Charts and models:

Volcanic ash grounds Britain for days to come

Britain faces being grounded for the coming week as the cloud of volcanic ash hovering over the country threatens to stay put until Friday.

The Met Office warned that northerly winds are pushing it south from Iceland rather than sending it eastwards towards Scandinavia, amid fears that the travel crisis could drag on indefinitely.

All flights to and from Britain have been cancelled until at least 7pm tonight today but this deadline may be pushed back again. BA and Ryanair said their earliest flights would be tomorrow, although test flights by the Dutch and Swiss appeared to be successful.

Early this morning, air traffic control company Nats said the ash cloud was still covering Britain and the ban on flights would have to continue.

Graeme Leitch of the Met Office said a change in the wind direction might mean flight restrictions could be lifted but there was no indication that any such change was imminent.

The crisis is costing cash-strapped British and Irish airlines £28m a day. Worldwide, airlines are losing £130m a day.

Five million travellers, including as many as 1m Britons, are stranded or unable to fly. Some have been told they may not get home until next month. A group of schoolgirl fencers from Durham stranded in Beijing said they had been told they might not be able to fly back until May 4.

KLM, the Dutch airline, successfully flew a test flight from Amsterdam to Düsseldorf at 9,000ft under the cloud last night while the Swiss went higher to allow plans to fly above the cloud at 36,000ft.

Some foreign airlines are pushing up the fares of their few remaining seats on flights. Passengers have been forced to sign forms exempting airlines from any compensation claims if they are then grounded in connecting airports.

Meanwhile, rail and ferry companies have been reaping the benefit. More than 60,000 passengers travelled through Dover yesterday in traffic more akin to the summer school holidays, while Eurotunnel laid on extra trains.

Across Britain the cloud of ash is causing chaos. Concerts have been cancelled because musicians cannot travel. Business conferences have been scrapped.

In sport, organisers of the London Marathon are drawing up contingency plans to get elite runners to the capital overland for next Sunday’s race, while Formula One teams in Shanghai for today’s Chinese Grand Prix are fearful of being unable to return and retune in time for the Barcelona Grand Prix in a fortnight.

Both Liverpool and Fulham football teams may have to use the rail network to get to their Europa Cup games in Madrid and Hamburg this week.

Schools are preparing for missing teachers and pupils tomorrow, while Cambridge University has cancelled exams because dozens of students and examiners are stranded abroad.

The Prince of Wales, Barack Obama and David Miliband, the foreign secretary, have had to abandon plans to travel to the funeral of Lech Kaczynski, the Polish president, today.

The Duchess of Cornwall has already had to cancel a visit to a Polish cultural centre in London to sign a book of condolence for the late president because she was unable to fly from Scotland.

There was mixed news for David Cameron, the Tory leader: his jet has been grounded but one of the rival candidates in his Witney constituency has been stranded in Sudan.

Teenage fans of the pop star Miley Cyrus could face disappointment if British airspace remains closed until Tuesday evening. The star of Hannah Montana was due to appear at the London premiere of her new film The Last Song, but Disney said she was still in America and unable to fly.

Scientists had thought that the volcano was abating, but yesterday it made some of its strongest eruptions yet, blasting plumes of ash more than 30,000ft high.

Geologists have no idea when it will stop. An eruption in Iceland in 1973 lasted five months and 10 days.

The ash from the Eyjafjallajokull volcano is dangerous to planes because the molten rock erupts through the glacier, solidifies and then shatters into tiny fragments. The smallest are carried high into the atmosphere and cannot be detected by radar or other aircraft instruments.

www.timesonline.co.uk

[dogs32]

KLM I think are prepared to fly and reckon this is a over-re action grounding all flights....A bit like swine flu!

[NL]

Ive just looked out the window and what i thought was just cirrus clouds is in my judgement volcanic ash, when viewed for awhile the cloud/ash has a yellow/brown tinge to it. Still the sunset yesterday and the sunrise today haven't been that much different than usual, hope for a better sunset this evening then i hope some eagerly welcome sou'westerlies come marching in and blow all this blanket of ash away. Dont want the NW stormchase delayed as theres hope at the end of the week for low level moisture and generous amount of CAPE returning to the plains but thats for another thread..!!

[Coast]

From the Met Office last night:

The Eyjafjallajökull volcano is still erupting, and possibly intensifying, with the ash plume rising to 30,000 feet. Evidence of ash dust over the UK is being detected by Met Office observations and there are reports of dust reaching the ground.

The Met Office commissioned NERC research flight flew over the North Sea on Friday afternoon and detected 3 distinct layers of ash, from fine particles at low levels to large particles around 8,000 feet.

All these observations are consistent with our forecast plumes for where the ash cloud would spread and how it would mix through the atmosphere.

The Met Office is working closely with the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) and National Air Traffic Services (NATS), and because of the worsening volcanic activity UK airspace has now been closed until 1am Sunday. We continue to look for weather windows that will allow air space restrictions to be lifted.

We are also liaising with Health Protection Scotland and the Health Protection Agency and dust collected at Lerwick and Aberdeen has been analysed by Scottish Environment Protection Agency. Preliminary analysis has shown that the properties of the particles appear to be consistent with the properties of volcanic ash, but further more detailed analysis is being undertaken.

Decisions on flights and airline movement is controlled by NATS. The Met Office is unable to advise of any details of any flights. However, many airlines are providing information on their websites.

We will continue to produce forecasts of the ash cloud and will assess the impact over the weekend in consultations with CAA and NATS.

www.metoffice.gov.uk (nice animated graphic on their page)

Interactive, current ash map observations here: www.metoffice.gov.uk

[Roo]

KLM I think are prepared to fly and reckon this is a over-re action grounding all flights....A bit like swine flu!

Yes they said on the news this morning that KLM have taken a test flight up.

Seems to me to be a really reckless thing to do: NATS have to follow protocol....can you imagine if a plane went up and then crashed because of the ash?

Caught between a rock and hard place, I think....

[dogs32]

yes...KLM reckon its only dangerous if you fly directly into it and all this is a over- re-action.

Germany also thinking on similar lines....

I dont know what to think as Im not a aviation expert..

But it does start to make you feel hopeful about flying...

edit

NL..I hope your right ...waited all year for this...

Edited April 18, 2010 by dogs32

[MAF]

but if the likes of KLM and others decide to fly, would it also depend on all the other elements? i.e air traffic control. airport authorities etc etc and if a country had a no fly zone over it would the planes have to circumnavigate that country?

[kold weather]

Well lets hope it doesn't come back to bite them, I've got a feeling this is a classic case of the airlines starting to put money6 ahead of safety, esp given there isn't going to be any real change in the situation till probably Friday.

[Stamford Bobby]

Looks like KLM are running another test flight right now!

www.flightradar24.com

[Roo]

Well lets hope it doesn't come back to bite them, I've got a feeling this is a classic case of the airlines starting to put money6 ahead of safety

I agree. I actually really admire NATS standing up to this in the name of safety. It really must be tough for them and I can imagine there must be a fair few politicians/CEOs leaning on them heavily.

[camperstron]

yes...KLM reckon its only dangerous if you fly directly into it and all this is a over- re-action.

Germany also thinking on similar lines....

I dont know what to think as Im not a aviation expert..

But it does start to make you feel hopeful about flying...

edit

NL..I hope your right ...waited all year for this...

Hi, I think the issue is that Air Traffic Control services are not prepared to provide a service when there are ash clouds about.

There's an interesting article about some finnish military jets who flew through the ash on thursday morning, and the damage that was done to them:

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/04/16/340727/pictures-finnish-f-18-engine-check-reveals-effects-of-volcanic.html

[dogs32]

Theres a lot of bickering behind the scene's with KLM and aviation authorities.

But even if KLM want to fly as someone mention it also depends on some other organization's..

Accu Weather saying the ash cloud over the UK will be worse on Tue/Wed.

[kold weather]

Hi, I think the issue is that Air Traffic Control services are not prepared to provide a service when there are ash clouds about.

There's an interesting article about some finnish military jets who flew through the ash on thursday morning, and the damage that was done to them:

http://www.flightglo...f-volcanic.html

Well thats good to hear, hopefully ATC continues with that course of action because there isn't any point in risking it and possibly ruining an engine.

Also yeah the ash plume is going to get directly sent our way once the flow becomes better stacked again in a couple of days.

[The PIT]

No views of the Volcano this morning due to the weather.

As finical pressures strike home the first cracks in the line of authority are showing.

Beeb had an expert on this morning if indeed he was an expert. He made one or two interesting comments that no one has really studied the effects of flying through the edges of volcanic ash clouds and how much damage it does. This is mainly due to aircraft flying round the cloud.

Interesting point.

The other point he made is that the air traffic controllers can't force aircraft too stay on the ground and this hasn't been tested yet.

Common sense says don't risk it but as finical pressures mount airlines maybe tempted to break ranks and risk it.

Airlines will need to consider if they do fly and crash because of the ash, the fact that they'll be sued off the face of the planet.

If several aircraft get into the trouble at the same time the chaos it will cause.

I bet airline lawyers will already be looking into legal implications of taking the risk and the possibility of forcing NATS to back off and allow flying.

[kold weather]

I wonder whether at least some of the southern most countries that have restrictions could fly south then try and fly high enough to not have many risks, though I know that would require probably going upto 38-40000 feet I'd guess?

[LadyPakal]

Is that snow or ash blowing across this webcam? http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk/

[dogs32]

why cant flights go directly South of Cornwall then up to New York avoiding this plume...Is it to do with fuel?

suerly there have been some clear slots down that way..

sounds crazy but why?...

I do think the cloud is dangerous but also think t here is some over -re-action

I know something they cant go on like this for ever...

Edited April 18, 2010 by dogs32

[Coast]

AMSTERDAM, April 18 (Reuters) - The Netherlands said more test flights would take place on Sunday to assess whether there was any danger in its airspace from volcanic ash after an earlier test flight was conducted safely.

Dutch airline KLM said it carried out a test flight on Saturday without any apparent damage. Germany's Lufthansa flew 10 planes in separate tests.

"The KLM test flight in the Netherlands, which took place under controlled conditions, has been safe. Abroad, several test flights have also been safe," the Dutch Transport Ministry said in a statement

"The goal of these test flights is to do measurements in Dutch airspace on the possible consequences of the ash on airplane parts," the ministry.

Volcanic ash spreading from Iceland has led to massive air travel disruptions across Europe in recent days and problems worsened on Saturday as the cloud of ash spread southeast across the continent.

Volcanic ash has an abrasive effect and can strip off vital aerodynamic surfaces and paralyse an aircraft engine, while aircraft avionics and electronics can also be damaged.

www.reuters.com

Dutch carrier KLM has thrown doubt on the risk to aircraft from European volcanic ash after finding no technical problems during a test flight conducted with a Boeing 737-800.

The airline expects to receive final results today from an inspection of the aircraft.

KLM conducted the flight in Dutch airspace, from 19:45 to 21:00 yesterday, after securing Dutch Government permission.

"No problems were encountered during the flight," says the airline. The 737 climbed to an altitude of 41,000ft during the test.

Core European airspace has been largely closed since 15 April following the eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in southwest Iceland and the dispersion of ash towards the European mainland.

"At first glance there is no reason to suspect that anything is amiss," says KLM chief Peter Hartman, who participated in the flight as an observer along with operations head Ype de Haan.

Initial technical checks in a hangar after the landing have also revealed no problems, although KLM says it will obtain final results today.

If these results confirm its expectations, the airline plans to return seven of its aircraft from Dusseldorf to Amsterdam Schiphol.

KLM is awaiting a Dutch transport ministry verdict on whether flight operations can be restored.

The carrier's test flight is likely to stir controversy over the extent of the risk to aircraft and the decision to shut airspace over the northern two-thirds of the European continent.

"We hope to receive permission as soon as possibleto start up our operation and to transport our passengers to their destinations," says Hartman.

KLM was the operator of a Boeing 747-400 which suffered multiple engine failure after encountering an ash plume from Alaska's Mount Redoubt volcano during a service to Tokyo in 1989

.

www.flightglobal.com

[The PIT]

Again say those flights say it's safe then the next one goes up and runs into a slighter dense cloud and has serious problems. Is it really worth it???

Still I suppose they may find what levels are safe to fly in possibly.

[dogs32]

There is immense pressure to find a solution as the industry is suffering.

With possibly prospects of this going on and off with disruption

[coldfingers]

Again say those flights say it's safe then the next one goes up and runs into a slighter dense cloud and has serious problems. Is it really worth it???

Still I suppose they may find what levels are safe to fly in possibly.

Personally I would rather catch a train or coach across Europe rather than taking the slightest risk. Also if the planes do fly when the cloud is still around what compensation would a more sensible or nervous passenger receive if they refused to fly?

I am glad I am not on any legal team making possible life or death decisions.

I don't usually praise Ryanair but I think they made the wisest decision to say no planes until Monday (or possibly beyond?) as just keep extending the deadline by 6 hours is giving false hope to stranded passengers.

Edited April 18, 2010 by coldfingers

[Will storm]

Looks like activity is ramping up at the volcano according to the tremor graphs here: http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html

[Beverley Lass]

Morning all,

Yesterday I washed my UPVC windowsills

and today I have the finest yellowish dust

on them that sparkles in the sunlight.

I think it must be the volcano tephra ash.

I can't detect any odour to it though.

BL

Edited April 18, 2010 by Beverley Lass

[The PIT]

Looks like activity is ramping up at the volcano according to the tremor graphs here: http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html

Seen some posts that the weather will be cloudy in area so the tremor graphs maybe our only indication of activity.

[coldfingers]

Looks like activity is ramping up at the volcano according to the tremor graphs here: http://hraun.vedur.i...todvaplott.html

Ooooo that looks really interesting! I wonder if that is the reason the closest webcam I have found just comes up with the message disconnected.?

PS many thanks for that link!

Edited April 18, 2010 by coldfingers