Convective Outlook

[Andy Bown]

I am assuming there is anaprop over East Anglia!?

[Costa Del Fal]

Still looking very good tomorrow. Best risks for storms according to the GFS will be East Wales, The Midlands, CS England, Eastern Ireland, Northern Ireland and Northern England (NW England in particular). GFS may be overcooking things slightly but cape may not be far off 1000j/kg with LI around -3 or -4c so unstable conditions but remember this doesnt mean storms will occur but the chances are improved of course.

Edited April 24, 2010 by Blizzards

[Stormyking]

Hi, Im Just wondering is this just a more like In land think or anywhere along coasts could produce something if it was to happen?

Just wondering thats all lol

thanks

[Stormyking]

Okay thank you weather09, will be interesting of what pops up tomorrow and where.

I will be keeping my eye on the radars to see where they pop up or if any pops up

[A.J]

Nice to see a bit of Ac Cas & Floccus floating around mixed in with other mid-level clouds...A good sign of some mid-level instability

I certainly hope GFS has got it right....I'm looking at around 700 Joules/kg of CAPE, Lifted Index of -3C, reasonable lapse rates (28C) and a weak cap in place...Could be interesting..... :lol:

Edited April 24, 2010 by ajpoolshark

[Costa Del Fal]

Netweather forecast has the Thundery shower icon for here tomorrow. Still looking good.

[user700]

Good setup tomorrow for storms in parts of the UK. The midlands looks best at the moment because of the high cape.

Edited April 24, 2010 by Danny Watson

[conor123]

Good chance of seeing something hopefully tommorow with the highest levels of CAPE starting in Wales late morning, the West Midlands and Cheshire area early afternoon then moving into the East Midlands and across the Pennines.

It's been just over a year (15 or 16th April? last year) since a storm last was overhead so hopefully it will be the start of a more promising year for storm activity!

[BlueHedgehog074]

Having started to become more familiar with the convection charts, the shower and potentially stormy activity for tommorrow is looking tasty indeed, with high CAPE levels about.

[Stormyking]

Hmm im looking forward to looking at the radars tomorrow to whether any showers turn out to be weak Thunderstorms, even though there wont be any down this i still think it will be interesting to see other places get storms in the UK. I agree with weather09 i reckon storms would be midlands to north wards or eastwards but who knows maybe some more westwards or southwards :lol:

Good luck to all

[The PIT]

I guess everyone is asleep well it's still looking interesting for T Storms today it'll be could be a good test for the latest verson of Nextstorm.

[Coast]

I guess everyone is asleep well it's still looking interesting for T Storms today

Not everyone!!!!

We've just had the first rain for 19 days here in Eastbourne. Just need a bit more sunshine now.

ESTOFEX first:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sun 25 Apr 2010 06:00 to Mon 26 Apr 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 24 Apr 2010 22:59

Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A large low pressure system, initially located over the Baltic region, shifts eastward towards W Russia. Within the cold and dry arctic airmass, steep mid level lapse rates may allow showers and isolated thunderstorms. Overall lightning activity should be very sparse and a lack of vertical shear and forcing should preclude severe weather.

A plume of moderately warm air is present over SW and W Europe. As the upper ridge translates eastward, some WAA is expected in France and W Germany ahead of an upper trough. A convergence line ahead of the surface cold front is forecast by several runs of GFS over W Germany during Sunday afternoon / evening. This convergence line separates a dry airmass in the eastern parts of Germany with SFC dewpoints around 0°C from moist air in E France / W Germany with dewpoints up to 10°C. QG forcing ahead of the upper trough should be strong enough to initiate some elevated convection in the late afternoon / evening hours. Deep layer shear in order of 10 - 15 m/s may be sufficient for some multicells with a slight chance of a severe microburst and / or small hail. As mid level lapse rates and vertical shear increase during the night, storms should strengthen while moving eastward. The latest run of GFS shows more convective activity along the cold front but this scenario is quite uncertain.

In the wake of the cold front, diurnal heating and upper level cooling will lead to some 400 - 800 J/kg SBCAPE over the British Isles. Less than 10 m/s deep layer shear should be in place which is not favourable for organised storms. A few briefly organised multicells may produce small hail and gusty winds. Overall lightning frequency should be rather low.

Messy in the Atlantic:

Current SatRep:

I'd go for East Anglia, maybe Suffolk if anything does happen today :lol:

[Jane Louise]

I've been awake for ages setting everything up lol.

Thanks Coast for todays Storm forecast

[Stormyking]

Same here Coast been raining here for first time in a long time.

I hope some places get storms, dont think i will as im too far south but still all Interesting.

[Casper]

Hopefully Swindon has a fair chance today, it does feel quite humid outside.

[staplehurst]

Fingers crossed for today then, last time I saw lightning/heard thunder was 24th July 2009 in Cranbrook, Kent. Hoping something might pass UEA later this afternoon in Norwich :lol:

[Stuart]

I am hopeing for my 1st storm today but you know my luck i wont see any

[Lynxus]

OK, Looking good.

Estofex have a warning ( albeit small )

UKasf also have a warning ( better than estofex's ) Not sure who to trust though.

The sun is out and quite strong.

We did have some rain last night, My car is COVERED! in a yellow / green dust. ( assuming its brought some of the ash down )

Will be interesting later today to see what happens, Keeping an eye on the sat images for any CB's poppin up.

[Supacell]

Sun is just coming out now and it is feeling quite humid. Doesnt look like any chance of organised storm activity today but with CAPE of around 600-800J/KG in parts with a LI of -3 I would be surprised if there werent some decent pulse type storms.

I am still hunting for the best place to go to chase, need to look at some of the experts opinions and then i will make my decision.

[Snowyowl9]

I am hopeing for my 1st storm today but you know my luck i wont see any

Unlikely for any thundery showers today I`ll say.

Looks pretty bland around here,this trough is coming in so may see some heavy showers.

[Stuart]

UKasf is still down

[LeeKay]

Try this link Stuart:

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Storm/

[03jtrickey]

Quite excited about the possibility of the first storms of the year. Sun has quickly broken through the cloud, so the insolation is getting going which means that hopefully convection can start early on. Feeling humid.

Edited April 25, 2010 by 03jtrickey

[staplehurst]

UKasf is still down

Yes I wondered that earlier, so I emailed them asking when they expect their site to be back online. This was their reply:

Dear Sir,

Thank-you for contacting UKASF. Unfortunately, due to the problems with the volcanic ash over the past week, several members of our design team were stranded in various places, and as a result the relaunch has been delayed. However, we will continue to issue storm forecasts, but they are currently only available by clicking on our widget. The forecasts are available to view online, but the new design has not been implemented onto our site yet. We are hoping to get the site back online over the next few days. We apologise for any inconvenience caused by this.

You can view the forecast issued for Sunday 25th April 2010

UKASF Team

[A.J]

Convection has initiated here in the NW Midlands, the first towers are sprouting up, a few already with dark bases to my west over east shropshire