May CET

[North-Easterly Blast]

Another below average month, thats 5 out of the last 6 that were below the 1971-2000 average and 4 of the last 6 below the 1961-90 average.

I remember when such months were pretty rare not so long ago but in the last couple of years, the frequency has gone up

Months below the 1971-2000 average since January 2001

May 2010: 10.7 (-0.6)

Mar 2010: 6.1 (-0.2)

Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.4)

Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.8]

Dec 2009: 3.1 (-2.0)

Jul 2009: 16.1 (-0.4)

Feb 2009: 4.1 [-0.1]

Jan 2009: 3.0 [-1.2]

Dec 2008: 3.5 (-1.6)

Oct 2008: 9.7 (-0.7)

Sep 2008: 13.5 (-0.2)

Jul 2008: 16.2 (-0.3)

Jun 2008: 13.9 (-0.2)

Apr 2008: 7.9 (-0.2)

Mar 2008: 6.1 (-0.2)

Dec 2007: 4.9 (-0.2)

Aug 2007: 15.4 (-0.8]

July 2007: 15.2 (-1.3)

Aug 2006: 16.1 (-0.1)

Mar 2006: 4.9 (-1.4)

Feb 2006: 3.7 (-0.5)

Dec 2005: 4.4 (-0.7)

Nov 2005: 6.2 (-0.7)

July 2004: 15.8 (-0.7)

Dec 2003: 4.8 (-0.3)

Oct 2003: 9.2 (-1.2)

Feb 2003: 3.9 (-0.3)

Oct 2002: 10.1 (-0.3)

Jul 2002: 16.0 (-0.5)

Dec 2001: 3.6 (-1.5)

Sep 2001: 13.4 (-0.3)

Apr 2001: 7.7 (-0.4)

Mar 2001: 5.2 (-1.1)

Jan 2001: 3.2 (-1.0)

What about anomalies with respect to the 1961-90 average Kevin? When you put this into context there will be fewer below average months. To me on the face of it a February still above 4*C or a July / Aug above 16*C doesen't look cool.

So, a May at least 0.5*C below the 61-90 mean. The first below average May for 14 years. Identical CET to May 1994.

Edited June 1, 2010 by North-Easterly Blast

[Lettucing Gutted]

What about anomalies with respect to the 1961-90 average Kevin? When you put this into context there will be fewer below average months. To me on the face of it a February still above 4*C or a July / Aug above 16*C doesn't look cool.

Here are the negative anomalies with respect to the 1961-90 average:-

May 2010: 10.7 (-0.5)

Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.0)

Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.4]

Dec 2009: 3.1 (-1.5)

Jan 2009: 3.0 [-0.8]

Dec 2008: 3.5 (-1.6)

Oct 2008: 9.7 (-0.9)

Sep 2008: 13.5 (-0.1)

Jun 2008: 13.9 (-0.3)

Aug 2007: 15.4 (-0.4]

July 2007: 15.2 (-0.9)

Mar 2006: 4.9 (-0.8]

Feb 2006: 3.7 (-0.1)

Dec 2005: 4.4 (-0.2)

Nov 2005: 6.2 (-0.3)

Oct 2004: 10.4 (-0.2)

July 2004: 15.8 (-0.3)

Oct 2003: 9.2 (-1.4)

Oct 2002: 10.1 (-0.5)

Jul 2002: 16.0 (-0.1)

Dec 2001: 3.6 (-1.0)

Sep 2001: 13.4 (-0.2)

Apr 2001: 7.7 (-0.2)

Mar 2001: 5.2 (-0.5)

Jan 2001: 3.2 (-0.6)

One ironic effect despite losing a lot of months from Kevin's list is that we gain October 2004 when we compare below average months with the 1961-1990 average since like June; October's 1961-1990 average was warmer than its 1971-2000 average unlike the other months of the year.

Edited June 1, 2010 by Craig Evans

[North-Easterly Blast]

Here are the negative anomalies with respect to the 1961-90 average:-

May 2010: 10.7 (-0.5)

Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.0)

Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.4]

Dec 2009: 3.1 (-1.5)

Jan 2009: 3.0 [-0.8]

Dec 2008: 3.5 (-1.1)

Oct 2008: 9.7 (-0.9)

Sep 2008: 13.5 (-0.1)

Jun 2008: 13.9 (-0.3)

Aug 2007: 15.4 (-0.4]

July 2007: 15.2 (-0.9)

Mar 2006: 4.9 (-0.8]

Feb 2006: 3.7 (-0.1)

Dec 2005: 4.4 (-0.2)

Nov 2005: 6.2 (-0.3)

Oct 2004: 10.4 (-0.2)

July 2004: 15.8 (-0.3)

Oct 2003: 9.2 (-1.4)

Oct 2002: 10.1 (-0.5)

Jul 2002: 16.0 (-0.1)

Dec 2001: 3.6 (-1.0)

Sep 2001: 13.4 (-0.2)

Apr 2001: 7.7 (-0.2)

Mar 2001: 5.2 (-0.5)

Jan 2001: 3.2 (-0.6)

One ironic effect despite losing a lot of months from Kevin's list is that we gain October 2004 when we compare below average months with the 1961-1990 average since like June; October's 1961-1990 average was warmer than its 1971-2000 average unlike the other months of the year.

December 2008's anomaly on the 61-90 scale was -1.1, not -1.6.

Edited June 1, 2010 by North-Easterly Blast

[Optimus Prime]

You're both wrong it's -1.2c. 1961-90 average is 4.7c not 4.6c.

[Don]

If it hadn't been for the heatwave it makes you wonder whether we could have beaten 1996 doesn't it?

I think that there would have been a good chance of that occuring whithout last weeks heat. However, the cold still managed to outweigh the warmth overall. With so many months of recent years having cold outweighed by warmth, this also makes a change.

Edited June 1, 2010 by Don

[Weather-history]

If it hadn't been for the heatwave it makes you wonder whether we could have beaten 1996 doesn't it?

Well those 4 days added 1.0C onto the CET.

[Paul T]

I think, for me, i've been very outspoken about my thoughts on May and rather detailed at times (which, given the wonderful hindsight nature of weather - can make you look silly) but ive been pretty much on the money from the start with May.

2nd page, top post (amongst other on this thread)

thankyou

[Eugene]

Speaking of heatwave 30c was reached somewhere in London on the 24/5/10; it was at least forcasted to do so. If so May 2010 will be one of the few sub 11c CET Mays if not the only one to achieve 30c anywhere in the UK

Ok if you want to bend the rules we might as well say -30C has been reached in the UK, i'm sure when the record -27C was recorded some isolated spots in the highlands reached -30C.

[J10]

The Results are now in for May and the results are available in the usual Excel and PDF format.

Well done to the 3 players who got the 10.7c spot on.

virtualsphere

Paul T

Rainbow Snow

In the Spring comp, Stu London won after 3 very good predictions, none more than 0.2c out. B)

davehsug and phil n.warks. were 2nd and 3rd.

Overall the top 3 are Stu_London, Polar Side and Polar Gael

But will Stu London continue his domination of this years competition?

[Lettucing Gutted]

Ok if you want to bend the rules we might as well say -30C has been reached in the UK, i'm sure when the record -27C was recorded some isolated spots in the highlands reached -30C.

Im just going to ingore yet another of your sarcastic comments.

<_<

[virtualsphere]

Well done to the 3 players who got the 10.7c spot on.

virtualsphere

Paul T

Rainbow Snow

I'd love to be able to say that I used some kind of expert forecasting knowledge, but in reality it was a complete guess...

Thought I'd underestimated after the recent warm spell, but it was rounded down more than I expected! <_<

[Thundery wintry showers]

Philip Eden gives May's highest temperature as 29.2C at Howden (East Riding), beating the 28.4C at Santon Downham:

http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

It does indeed appear that Norwich Airport, which registered 29C that day, is no longer counted as an official site for temperature.

His version of the CET produced an outturn of 10.9C.