May CET

[The PIT]

well in the past we've had some very cold spells wiped out by very mild spells. I wonder if this month will do the same.

[damianslaw]

well in the past we've had some very cold spells wiped out by very mild spells. I wonder if this month will do the same.

Very much doubt it, odds are on for a near average CET at best..

[Snowyowl9]

It has been a consistantly cold first half of May,nothing very cold though,just a solid 2 week period.

Looks like a very warm 2nd half so will may end up just average or slightly below.

[TonyH]

Looking at some statistics and data, I would hazard a guess that to the 15th the CET will be around 8.3oC.

Therefore, we would need every consequential day to come in at 14oC to hit the long term average (1961-90 11.2oC).

I would expect a few days towards the end of May to come in around 14 or even 15, but they will largely come in around 11-12.

Therefore, i think that 10.2-10.6 would be on the money, and no higher.

Its based on pretty rational thinking....

Just wondered if the rational thinking is holding up?

One thing for sure we will end up very close to the average.

[The PIT]

Very much doubt it, odds are on for a near average CET at best..

Dunno GFS was showing some very warm weather although 12 oz has watered it down somewhat.

[SteveB]

8.4c to the 14th, -2.1c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Optimus Prime]

Anything between 11.3c and 13.0c looking at the output.

[Snowyowl9]

Anything between 11.3c and 13.0c looking at the output.

Too high.

10.9c

[Paul T]

Just wondered if the rational thinking is holding up?

One thing for sure we will end up very close to the average.

Its a guessing game for me, but my guess to the 15th was pretty accurate, given that it took into conisderation 6 days of temps; I said 8.3oc to the 15th, its actually 8.5oc

There seems like there will be a very warm spell mid next week, days with means around 16 forecast. its going to rocket up LOL

Edited May 16, 2010 by Paul T

[Deep Snow please]

Looking at the forecast for the rest of this week we could creep above average or even get to 13C or at a very big push 14C if we get a lot of 19C or 20C days. its still possible.

[summer blizzard]

Personally i would be suprised if the CET was above 11C, so below average is the most likely in my opinion, however if the heat remains right through until the end of the month, then we could push for 12C.

[Don]

Looking at the forecast for the rest of this week we could creep above average or even get to 13C or at a very big push 14C if we get a lot of 19C or 20C days. its still possible.

Can't see it getting that high. Getting to 14C would be an absolute huge ask!

[SteveB]

8.5c to the 15th, -2.1c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Thundery wintry showers]

To reach the long-term average we will need an outturn of approximately 14C between now and the end of the month, which is certainly doable. However, frequent 19-20C outturns are extremely unlikely- that would be notably hot even for a summer day.

We are likely to see the daily CET exceed 14C between Thursday and Saturday, possibly until Sunday, with 17 or 18C possible, which should blow a huge hole in the negative CET anomaly. However some kind of brief northerly or north-easterly should then bring temps down close to normal, so I think somewhere between 11 and 11.5C CET looks like the most likely "landing zone", maybe slightly lower if the duration of high pressure is being overdone.

[damianslaw]

Some seem very confident that the progged warmer weather in this coming week will last through right to the end of the month, looking at the charts every chance of a cooler flow from the north, as heights transfer from the north eventually. This will prevent anything than a slightly above average CET being recorded I suspect, and I still think there is a good chance that we will end up a little below.

The upcoming warmer spell could be plagued by cloud which will suppress maxes, an eventual outurn above 12 degrees would require sustained warm maxes above 21 degrees and therefore sustained sunshine, its a very tall order.

[Stu_London]

Can't see it getting that high. Getting to 14C would be an absolute huge ask!

Yes - above 19C from now until the 31st - I don't think so.

We will do well to get above 11C from here. (13.3 average required to get to that) - Some days in the 2nd half of next week might exceed this, but there will be 2 or 3 below it before then and the last week of the month is far from set in stone yet.

[SteveB]

8.6c to the 16th, -2.0c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Backtrack]

I'll go for 11.2c.

[AderynCoch]

I'll go for 11.2c.

17 days late... how many penalty points is that?

[The PIT]

Well with another northerly in FI it's any ones guess where the final value will end up.

[Stu_London]

below average is a near certainty if the latest ensembles are to be believed.

If you were sitting on a punt of 10.5C, you would be fairly happy with proceedings

We are up to 8.7 to the 17th, last night was a chilly 4.6C which will keep a lid on todays outcome.

Realistically we then have 5 days of what might be significant rises. If those 5 days average 14-15, then we will be at 10C entering what looks like being a rather cool final week (although most days should average over 10C, I would have thought)

Edited May 18, 2010 by Stu_London

[kold weather]

A rather interesting set-up for the last 10 days, this warm spell coming up will no doubt destroy a good chunk of the negative anomalies we have right now (I'd expect 14-16C days are very likely) and then another attempt at a -ve NAO develops. Where the upper high tries to form is going to be very key to the outcome. If it forms far enough NW then a below average month is just about nailed on...BUT if it forms far enough to the east then it'll help to continue the warm spell.

[AderynCoch]

A rather interesting set-up for the last 10 days, this warm spell coming up will no doubt destroy a good chunk of the negative anomalies we have right now (I'd expect 14-16C days are very likely) and then another attempt at a -ve NAO develops.

Indeed, with the CET running so low any warm weather will make an impact, even late on in the month. It remains to be seen how long the warmth will last or even how warm it will get, and as you say the northerly is not yet nailed. Sub-10C is still very much possible I would say.

[damianslaw]

11

[The PIT]

Yes - above 19C from now until the 31st - I don't think so.

We will do well to get above 11C from here. (13.3 average required to get to that) - Some days in the 2nd half of next week might exceed this, but there will be 2 or 3 below it before then and the last week of the month is far from set in stone yet.

We exceeded that yesterday which shows what mild nights can do. GFS showing a swing to more warmer weather with the cooler plunge being pushed eastward so the outcome is far from certain. Next four days or so should return above 14C average by a good margin if this mornings forecast is right. So 11c is certainly not off the cards and maybe even beaten if the warming trend continues.