Model Output Discussion

[snowlover2009]

Russia= hot summers cold winters

yep. We have been unlucky to miss out on the warm hot summers, we managed to get the colder winters, but no warm or hot summers.

Scandinavia at this rate will do better and they are further north than us and usually still quite cool at this time of year from what i remember.

heres hoping the cfs charts atm are predicting mild winters for parts of eastern europe, so they know how it feels.

Edited May 12, 2010 by snowlover2009

[SP1986]

yep. We have been unlucky to miss out on the warm hot summers, we managed to get the colder winters, but no warm or hot summers.

Scandinavia at this rate will do better and they are further north than us and usually still quite cool at this time of year from what i remember.

heres hoping the cfs charts atm are predicting mild winters for parts of eastern europe, so they know how it feels.

They probably already have a good idea, Southeast Europe experience almost record warm winter temperatures this winter

[Stormyking]

It was looking good but then goes colder again from T+216 onwards just before right at the end of the run, I know its way far out into FI but from T+360 onwards it has the Jet pushing north and then over us but at least it shows it pushing up and a bit warmer weather again aswell but yeh unfortuenatly it is way way too far out to say.

[snowlover2009]

I don't know what we need for this pattern to end. Maybe the strong high pressure to western europe next week could join onto the high pressure to the east, however, the pressure to the east is slacker and not as well built, so its easier for the pressure over us, to move back to its favourite place the atlantic and over greenland.

[Stormyking]

I don't know what we need for this pattern to end. Maybe the strong high pressure to western europe next week could join onto the high pressure to the east, however, the pressure to the east is slacker and not as well built, so its easier for the pressure over us, to move back to its favourite place the atlantic and over greenland.

It is a right old tough thing to end and I think that could be the case but I really hope a change comes soon, but then I spose its all part of the fun with the weather and basically like a game you win some and you lose some

But yeh I really can't see the atlantic being quiet for very long soon and knowing our luck in the past 3 years it will probably wake up in the summer and over us but apart from that I just hope we get a few plumes this summer

[mushymanrob]

next weeks warm up is now pretty certain ...that is, warm up upto normal! with high pressure around after that there could be some very nice days in the sun, but cloud is likely to spoil it at times. still on the dry side too.

[SP1986]

There may be low data counts on the GFS. If this is true then the warm spell may be in jeopardy, but that's yet to be confirmed? The ECM might have had similar issues , again not sure how true this is

[cyclonic happiness]

It's a worry that the jet may start to move north at the end of this month and then just stay at it's NEW northern limit ,ie, over the British Isles.

That's when we will see the atlantic waking up.

The one thing that's annoying me atm, is the lack of accurate temperature forecasting over the nightimes?

Yesterday had us down here from between -4.c and +7'c?? It wouldn't be so annoying if it wasn't for the fact that we have to take all of our bedding in at work every night then put it back out in the morning.

[Frosty.]

The models are continuing to firm up on a warming trend which begins slowly this weekend and then accelarates rapidly into next week with winds blowing in from around the Azores instead of Iceland, the ecm 00z still offers the best outlook with a very warm and settled spell later in FI whereas the gfs 06z is more changeable with warm and cool air battling for control. Next week is looking nice for much of the uk with sunny spells and temps rising into the low 70's and probably higher in the southeast but the far north and northwest will probably be the exception with an atlantic influence keeping it cooler and more unsettled at times.

[mushymanrob]

possible hot spell in fi (on the 06z) as highs to our east and lows to our south draw air up on the continent. ok its not quite there yet but might upgrade closer to the time IF it ever came off.

[Paul]

Michael Fish has just put his latest forecast online - spring warmth here we come!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=michaelfish;sess=

[Wilxy]

Well the gfs looks good for breif warm spells but no real sign of any prolonged warmth and have a much better chance of prolonged cold as FI continues to pose the risk of high pressure building to the west again

[frostyjoe]

i meant on the whole. it hasnt exactly been 25c widely and above. Usually this time of year, we see those sorts of temps widely and more common. its a shocking set up and once again gfs on the same route, bringing high pressure to greenland, low pressure to uk and europe. with this set up, expect more brits to complain that we wont get a summer. dont blame them tbh, we have had it bad over the last few years, incredibly bad.

in time, the gfs indicates, eastern europe to cool down and with the way the weather pattern is in west europe, we will be just as cool, like it has been through this spring. Horrible pattern, if this is what a cold winter is or will continue to do to the patterns for springs and summer, i would sooner have milder and stormier winters. funny pattern, as gfs indicates eastern europe which is experiencing record temps to cool right down, you would expect it to stay warm, but even there in time, gfs indicates there will cool down towards next week.

Well at least it'll be an excuse to get to goto america.

[rmc1987]

Well something warm would be nice. I wouldn't hold out for anything too warm. Seeing the GFS showing temps of 22c in some time. The last warm spell was it showing 24c at one point and we reached 21c?

Then going cool again, looks a bad pattern with the cool being far mire significant and doesn't seem to want to change!

Edited May 13, 2010 by rmc1987

[summer blizzard]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

The models seem to have agreed on the set up for next week, with the Azores High ridging over the UK, however they both agree that the core of the high will remain west of the UK, meaning that the north west of Scotland and Ireland could see some cloud and drizzle, for the majority of England though, the setup looks lovely and summer like with maxima in the high teens and low twenties.

The jury is still out for next weekend, GFS brings in a northerly, ECWMF a southerly..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

[frostyjoe]

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png

The models seem to have agreed on the set up for next week, with the Azores High ridging over the UK, however they both agree that the core of the high will remain west of the UK, meaning that the north west of Scotland and Ireland could see some cloud and drizzle, for the majority of England though, the setup looks lovely and summer like with maxima in the high teens and low twenties.

The jury is still out for next weekend, GFS brings in a northerly, ECWMF a southerly..

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2401.png

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

Thats crap when are we going to get 25c, you can't do anything with that and when its windy it feels like 10c its freezing, at 25c you can goto the beach and everything.

[Milhouse]

ECM 12z looking good so far. Hopefully the high will move further east as was shown on the 0z

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

[chapmanslade]

Thats crap when are we going to get 25c, you can't do anything with that and when its windy it feels like 10c its freezing, at 25c you can goto the beach and everything.

It's May for goodness sake ! 25C is not common in May anywhere in the UK. Don't forget May is only the fifth warmest month, behind September and just ahead of October.

[Thundery wintry showers]

While the recent weather has been somewhat on the cool side for May, it is rare for temperatures to climb close to 25C for more than the odd brief interlude- average maximum temperatures for mid May typically range from 14C in coastal areas of the north to 17C around London. That's not to say it can't happen (the latter part of May 1992 was a good example of when it did) but it's pretty rare.

I remember back in the 1990s having some people tell me that they would rarely expect "proper" summery weather until late in May or even into June. Those expectations have raised since then due to the recent run of warm Mays, and while it may be unwelcome for most, we are well overdue a colder-than-average May- the last one was the exceptional one back in 1996.

Looking at those charts, I don't see a northerly on the GFS chart posted, though it does evolve into a cyclonic north-westerly pattern. ECMWF looks quite interesting with the possibility of a Spanish plume type event following on from the 00Z T+240 chart (a long way off of course!) and in general it is placing the high further north than the GFS, a trend which is currently continuing with the 12Z.

[frostyjoe]

It's May for goodness sake ! 25C is not common in May anywhere in the UK. Don't forget May is only the fifth warmest month, behind September and just ahead of October.

ok,well then will we see it that the temp is above 20c most of the time?? I seem to remember 25c alot last year and it came earlier than june.. at least we'll have an arctic winter

Edited May 13, 2010 by frostyjoe

[Wilxy]

Does anyone agree that its anoyying how high preesure keeps rising to the west of the uk whilst its also been very quiet here for alantic weather systems, ok tomorrow but thats more from iceland i cant remember the last time a big storm from the alantic came up from the Southwest, apart from the storm that was ment to give the SE heavy rain and v strong winds that caused damage in spain and france i think it was, id rather see that as it would give a warmer wind direction.

[damianslaw]

Increasingly warmer conditions as we head through the weekend and into the start of next week thanks to azores high ridging north east into southern parts. Temps won't be exceptional but widespread high teens over much of the county early next week will feel very pleasant compared to recent days where temps have struggled to make double figures in some spots.

Big questions is how strong will the azores high be in ridging sufficiently north and east to bring sustained warmer conditions, ECM supports this evolution, however, GFS is throwing up what to me looks a much more plausible evolution, this being it won't be strong enough and unfortunately will creep back to where it is currently and we see a return to a cool north westerly flow. Can't see heights to the east helping out here and neither are we going to see a quick transfer of the jet northwards. I tend to rate GFS in these situations, ECM tends to do better when we have heights over the country or to the north and east and less so when azores high comes into play.

To sum up becoming warmer everywhere early next week, peaking middle of next week, cooler thereafter especially in the north and more unsettled thanks to a north westerly flow.

[TonyH]

ok,well then will we see it that the temp is above 20c most of the time?? I seem to remember 25c alot last year and it came earlier than june.. at least we'll have an arctic winter

In Northern Ireland even in Summer months the maxima would not usually be above 20c most of the time, more like about half of the time as the average is below 20c.

[mushymanrob]

ok,well then will we see it that the temp is above 20c most of the time?? I seem to remember 25c alot last year and it came earlier than june.. at least we'll have an arctic winter

dunno where you live, here in derby it didnt get above 25c before june and when it did it wasnt often last summer....still single digits.

pretty much agreed that the azores high will ridge in over us settling and warming things up by tuesday. however, the latest fax shows embedded uper fronts which will produce cloud so sunshine might be at a premium, favouring the southeast. uncertainty grows fast beyond tuesday and fi seems to wildly change rn on run.

whatever happens, its still looking on the dry side.

[snowfish]

dunno where you live, here in derby it didnt get above 25c before june and when it did it wasnt often last summer....still single digits.

pretty much agreed that the azores high will ridge in over us settling and warming things up by tuesday. however, the latest fax shows embedded uper fronts which will produce cloud so sunshine might be at a premium, favouring the southeast. uncertainty grows fast beyond tuesday and fi seems to wildly change rn on run.

whatever happens, its still looking on the dry side.

Looks to be a lot of cloud spoiling things....drizzle/showery activity too so along with milder temps, the rain comes too - oh well, I hope that FI doesn't come about - I'm on annual leave lol!

Edited May 14, 2010 by snowfish