Model Output Discussion

[johnholmes]

copied from convective thread re showers/storms for this area with comment for other areas.

showers-storms 5-6 june weekend.pdf

[Frosty.]

Looking good eventually next week for scotland with an atlantic high pressure pushing east across the north but temperatures would be nothing special, the southern half of the uk is looking more unsettled and showery and also fairly warm and humid but nothing like today's scorcher of 29-30c 85f, more likely 18-21c, maybe a 22c for the southeast, FI could bring much warmer weather off the continent.

Edited June 5, 2010 by Frosty039

[snowlover2009]

Looking good eventually next week for scotland with an atlantic high pressure pushing east across the north but temperatures would be nothing special, the southern half of the uk is looking more unsettled and showery and also fairly warm and humid but nothing like today's scorcher of 29-30c 85f, more likely 18-21c, maybe a 22c for the southeast, FI could bring much warmer weather off the continent.

what an awful 06z!!!

only joking LOL, very thundery and hot probably. world cup kicks offf with a bang, very exciting to see a good 06z.

[Frosty.]

what an awful 06z!!!

only joking LOL, very thundery and hot probably. world cup kicks offf with a bang, very exciting to see a good 06z.

Yes let's hope the 6z is close to the eventual outcome, there will be lots of happy people if it does.

[Jezzer]

what an awful 06z!!!

only joking LOL, very thundery and hot probably. world cup kicks offf with a bang, very exciting to see a good 06z.

Yep, was thinking that. Next Saturday looks warm again, few showers dotted around, hopefully stays dry and warm for those World Cup bbqs

[Eugene]

Looking at the GFS 06Z ensembles nearly all runs have LP over the UK end of the week into the weekend, could be very wet in places, its going to be a nightmare to forecast where it rains this coming week even tomorrows rain nobody is sure about.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

ECM looks rather cool, another GP run from ECM.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Looking at the GFS 06Z ensembles nearly all runs have LP over the UK end of the week into the weekend, could be very wet in places, its going to be a nightmare to forecast where it rains this coming week even tomorrows rain nobody is sure about.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

ECM looks rather cool, another GP run from ECM.

ECM is poor,gfs 06z is superb.Unfortunately i know where my money would be.

[mushymanrob]

Yes let's hope the 6z is close to the eventual outcome, there will be lots of happy people if it does.

me for one! .... the 06z is a scorcher, not so much for strong sun but that run into fi would be very humid, muggy, sultry, with thunderstorm potential. my ... we havnt had conditions like that for ages...

the gfs has thrown up this possibility on and off for some time, a low eventually to our south, then biscay, drawing up very warm, humid continental air. i know its along way off becoming reality, but im happy to see this cropping up several times now.

[snowlover2009]

Yep, was thinking that. Next Saturday looks warm again, few showers dotted around, hopefully stays dry and warm for those World Cup bbqs

it would just be nice to have soemthign like 2006 when the world cup was on then. i remember vaguely going to the pub to watch the games and it being lovely and sunny. lets hope this year will be the same because it is a nice feeling and being able to have world cup bbqs. gives a real nice atmosphere.

[Ben_Cambs]

Unfortuneatly the 06z has very little support on the ensembles and is at the warm end of the ensembles with only 2 or 3 members supporting roughly what it shows. Though saying this, the GFS control run is still pretty good and is on near the cool end of the ensembles.

Edited June 5, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Kentish Kiwi]

ECM is poor,gfs 06z is superb.Unfortunately i know where my money would be.

That said, I've seen the GFS repeatedly toying with the idea, over multiple runs throughout the last week, of a somewhat 'under-cutting' low situating itself to the south of the UK over Northern France, subsequently dragging up warm, moist air from the south-east. Could be a 'trend' being 'spotted' which the GFS has shown itself useful at throughout the winter.

However, I agree that the most likely outcome would be that of the ECM with a mid-Atlantic ridge, with such strong support from GP and his guidance from teleconnections. This isn't to say we'll be constantly under a northerly though; as shown by the GFS and to an extent the ECM on previous runs, a mid-Atlantic ridge could extend eastwards with the UK under settled, pleasant conditions as a result.

[snowlover2009]

ECM is poor,gfs 06z is superb.Unfortunately i know where my money would be.

we all know why half the people always think the poorer option is likely due to the recent poor summers. why do you post so much negativity, from your posts i can never tell what sort of weather your interested in from one minute to the next. lets just enjoy the weather because if we really were heading to a complete washout summer like the last few, then why do we keep having some cracking runs. if i remember rightly, last years runs would only show good weather right up to the end of FI or deep FI. the dry spell that gfs is showing and also UKMO seems to be leaning that way too is not even that far out. in summers like 2007, we would be see low after low swinging through all the time and the only dry weather would show occasionally in the models in deep FI, if not ever. we should be happy to see such great charts for only a week away, as i said those sort of charts for the weekend next week wouldnt even show until deep FI in summers like 07 and 08.

any summer from the noughties, but 07, 08 and 09 would do me fine. because it would be a whole lot better than them summers.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

we all know why half the people always think the poorer option is likely due to the recent poor summers. why do you post so much negativity, from your posts i can never tell what sort of weather your interested in from one minute to the next. lets just enjoy the weather because if we really were heading to a complete washout summer like the last few, then why do we keep having some cracking runs. if i remember rightly, last years runs would only show good weather right up to the end of FI or deep FI. the dry spell that gfs is showing and also UKMO seems to be leaning that way too is not even that far out. in summers like 2007, we would be see low after low swinging through all the time and the only dry weather would show occasionally in the models in deep FI, if not ever. we should be happy to see such great charts for only a week away, as i said those sort of charts for the weekend next week wouldnt even show until deep FI in summers like 07 and 08.

any summer from the noughties, but 07, 08 and 09 would do me fine. because it would be a whole lot better than them summers.

Excuse me? I dont post negativity,my prefernece is hot in summer and cold in winter.IF ecm was showing what

06 gfs was showing id be pluming for ecm as i feel its the superior model.

I made numerous posts last week how we were looking good for a spell of warm settled weather after seeing cross

model consensus so i think your post is unfair.

[Frosty.]

me for one! .... the 06z is a scorcher, not so much for strong sun but that run into fi would be very humid, muggy, sultry, with thunderstorm potential. my ... we havnt had conditions like that for ages...

the gfs has thrown up this possibility on and off for some time, a low eventually to our south, then biscay, drawing up very warm, humid continental air. i know its along way off becoming reality, but im happy to see this cropping up several times now.

Let's hope so mushy, hot and thundery is my favourite summer weather and the gfs does have a good track record of spotting these trends in FI, the alternative of a mid atlantic high and scandi trough in summer is horrible.

[Geordiesnow]

Hmmm i must be missing something, the 06Z is a mild/warm run but for summer weather fans, its not a good run. Its looks to my eyes that its a cloudy and damp run until around 168 hours where it looks a little brighter and showery. Western areas that is protected from the hills would probably be brighter but for the vast majority, its a dull cloudy run. It is a better run than the ECM you could argue regarding temperatures but overall, its not that much of an improvment.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think there is a lot of focus on FI on the GFS 06Z, which goes for something warm humid and thundery rather than cool and cloudy with the mid-Atlantic ridge. In the reliable timeframe you are right, at least as far as I can see. A cool cloudy week for most with frontal rain for the south and the bright, showery, thundery stuff largely confined to the continent due to the low being further south than on earlier runs.

[mushymanrob]

Hmmm i must be missing something, the 06Z is a mild/warm run but for summer weather fans, its not a good run. Its looks to my eyes that its a cloudy and damp run until around 168 hours where it looks a little brighter and showery. Western areas that is protected from the hills would probably be brighter but for the vast majority, its a dull cloudy run. It is a better run than the ECM you could argue regarding temperatures but overall, its not that much of an improvment.

if the gfs 06z came off (in fi) there would be alot of humid, sultry weather under milky skies... so not bright sunshine, more like the greenhouse of early august 2003. as tws says, its this in fi that has caused afew raised eyebrows and as its a scenario that the gfs has shown before then theres hope. ok, theres nothing until around t168, but decent hot spells need to build and i think we are resigned to a cooler, damper, cloudier spell from tomorrow onwards. hopefully this wont last forever! so for summer weather fans it becomes a good run.

but thats assuming fi will become a reality, which is unfortunately unlikely, but its what is being suggested by the 06z so is fair game for comment!

[conor123]

I can't take the charts seriously at the moment, the 12z looks absolutely bonkers for Thursday/Friday overpowering the low that much and having such exceptional high upper air over Germany and the Netherlands.

Looks like the Northern Isles and Scotland will have the best of the weather for once next week, though i really do think this progged low is going to end up at least 200 miles further south and 5 times weaker in the end, Fridays charts do just not seem possible though i would happily take them as it would bring one hell of a storm.

Edited June 5, 2010 by conor123

[The PIT]

Looking like a cool spell coming up after this weekend. Some very cool temps for midweek with some welcome rain for some areas. The unsettled spell goes out FI as well so summer back on hold again.

[mushymanrob]

out to t150 and the gfs 12z is following the 06z . more to the point its very similar to the ukmo out to t120, great news for heat/thunderstorm fans, a low over biscay is i reckon just about the best synoptic for thunderstorms. (coupled with high to our east).

Looking like a cool spell coming up after this weekend. Some very cool temps for midweek with some welcome rain for some areas. The unsettled spell goes out FI as well so summer back on hold again.

have you seen the 'uppers'?.. by next friday it will be much warmer again IF the 12z came reality.

Edited June 5, 2010 by mushymanrob

[SP1986]

I dont think tthe GFS operational understands the situation very well, its under reading pretty much everything, temperatures, dewpoints.. I'd rather go with the ensembles for this one

[Jezzer]

Looking like a cool spell coming up after this weekend. Some very cool temps for midweek with some welcome rain for some areas. The unsettled spell goes out FI as well so summer back on hold again.

Unsettled possibly, but I wouldn't class temps that GFS is predicting for next Saturday as summer on hold?

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100605/12/171/ukmaxtemp.png

[Geordiesnow]

out to t150 and the gfs 12z is following the 06z . more to the point its very similar to the ukmo out to t120, great news for heat/thunderstorm fans, a low over biscay is i reckon just about the best synoptic for thunderstorms. (coupled with high to our east).

have you seen the 'uppers'?.. by next friday it will be much warmer again IF the 12z came reality.

Yep, the difference between this run and the 06Z is the winds are coming from a ESE direction unlike the previous run which was more ENE thus giving us warmer, and potentially thundery weather. If this run came off, it will feel alot more humid with the much warmer upper air temps albeit sunshine again will be at a premieum i would of thought.

[Thundery wintry showers]

12Z gives a more "summery" outlook for southern England with the frontal region placed further north, so warmer with thundery showers on Tuesday/Wednesday rather than cold dull and wet. Still looks cold, dull and wet for N England though. It does indeed look quite warm/thundery into early FI again, though in a different way to the 06Z.

[Geordiesnow]

I dont think tthe GFS operational understands the situation very well, its under reading pretty much everything, temperatures, dewpoints.. I'd rather go with the ensembles for this one

Basing on experience in my area, if the GFS 12Z came off, then the temps of around 13C won't be too far off the mark with the winds coming in off the chilly North sea and alot of low cloud and potential sea fog.

I do agree regarding the GFS temps, i think whenever there is rainfall(especially frontal) predicted over an area, it tends to lower the temperature too much. On some occasions its right to lower the temperature but not as low the GFS predicts. In dry weather set ups, the GFS max temperatures are reasonably accurate although the minimum temperature can often be predicted too low(as you stated during the winter quite a bit i seem to recall).