Model Output Discussion

[johnholmes]

In the short time scale, T+03 to T+24 and there are large differences for this area shown by NAE and GFS

NAE suggests between 12 and 18mm (in the two spot locations nearest me) to 12Z Sunday, GFS has between 7 and 10mm.

By 00z Monday NAE shows 14/32mm with GFS on 7/10mm.

I'll go and take a look at what our own version on Net Wx gives with one spot almost over me.

Extra shows 5mm by 03Z Sunday although it has 2mm by 18z today and I've had none yet. A further 6mm is predicted between 12 and 21z Sunday making a total fall of 17mm from today until this area of thundery rain clears in the early hours of Monday.

Edited June 5, 2010 by johnholmes

[mushymanrob]

. It does indeed look quite warm/thundery into early FI again, though in a different way to the 06Z.

does it?... it looks basically the same to me, if anything it brings foreward the heat/humidity (although it doesnt last as long). but that possible hot/humid spell is pretty close to a reliable timeframe. all eyes then on the ukmo and ecm for support.

[johnholmes]

I do agree regarding the GFS temps, i think whenever there is rainfall(especially frontal) predicted over an area, it tends to lower the temperature too much. On some occasions its right to lower the temperature but not as low the GFS predicts. In dry weather set ups, the GFS max temperatures are reasonably accurate although the minimum temperature can often be predicted too low(as you stated during the winter quite a bit i seem to recall).

I think you will find that GFS tends to overdo max temps whatever the weather. Sunshine and normally 2-3C needs adding to its predicted max is what I've found for here over the past 5 years or so of checking?

[mushymanrob]

well the ukmo 12z isnt as progressive as the gfs out to t120, but its evolving in the 'right' direction for a hot humid spell. this would give us rather pleasant conditions.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

well the ukmo 12z isnt as progressive as the gfs out to t120, but its evolving in the 'right' direction for a hot humid spell. this would give us rather pleasant conditions.

Lovely 12z ukmo mushy.Subtle hints that a rebuilding azores high ridging towards Scandanavia could be on the cards.

UKMO makes much less of the low to our south,hopefully ecm similar this evening could be a warm start to the

world cup,posibly hot if the low fills and we drag air up from the continent.

[rmc1987]

The GFS on a funny turn again with sone of the warmth. It'll revert to the cooler again anyway.

Cooler and wetter spell coming. Less thunderstorm risk though?? Will just be rain I'd imagine, here anyway. Would be nice to see a warm up but I've not seem much support for it.

[TEITS]

hopefully ecm similar this evening could be a warm start to the

world cup,posibly hot if the low fills and we drag air up from the continent.

Very pleasing output from the UKMO. I feared some of the parties for the England Vs USA match would be a ruined but im beginning to believe a lovely warm start could occur instead. Lets hope this new trend continues over the next 24/48hrs.

[snowlover2009]

Very pleasing output from the UKMO. I feared some of the parties for the England Vs USA match would be a ruined but im beginning to believe a lovely warm start could occur instead. Lets hope this new trend continues over the next 24/48hrs.

well, 4 unsettled days, sun, mon, tues and wed and it starts to dry up again from thursday if ukmo and gfs are correct. for the point about temps being overdone on gfs, i beg to differ as the temps for today are alrweady wrong for soem regions and usually can be underdone every so often. but saying that it can over do them i agree. very interesting towards thursday onwards with the hgih start to rebuild with the high over europe. could be very humid and thundery come world cup time and hot maybe.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Very pleasing output from the UKMO. I feared some of the parties for the England Vs USA match would be a ruined but im beginning to believe a lovely warm start could occur instead. Lets hope this new trend continues over the next 24/48hrs.

Im starting to feel positive about June TEITS.If we can get that Azores high to ridge NE of the UK a very warm spell

could be not to far away.Equally we could see a scenario like ecm 0z were the high gets 'stuck' to our NW and the

low over Scandy deepens.

As you say next 48 hours will be very interesting.

PS cant wait for the world cup this could be our year.

[TEITS]

well, 4 unsettled days, sun, mon, tues and wed and it starts to dry up again from thursday if ukmo and gfs are correct. for the point about temps being overdone on gfs, i beg to differ as the temps for today are alrweady wrong for soem regions and usually can be underdone every so often. but saying that it can over do them i agree. very interesting towards thursday onwards with the hgih start to rebuild with the high over europe. could be very humid and thundery come world cup time and hot maybe.

I generally find the GFS fairly accurate. Obviously it will never be spot on but I tend to find on days like today it will underestimate the max temps by around 1-2C. During a cold anticyclonic spell in winter I find the temps are generally 1-2C colder than the GFS predicted.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

T

lol ste,MR T?

[Thundery wintry showers]

does it?... it looks basically the same to me, if anything it brings foreward the heat/humidity (although it doesnt last as long). but that possible hot/humid spell is pretty close to a reliable timeframe. all eyes then on the ukmo and ecm for support.

Aye, it depends on what sort of timeframe we're looking at really, I saw a cyclonic easterly/south-easterly on the 06Z for much of FI whereas on the 12Z it turns into a cyclonic southerly type. It's certainly true that it's pretty close to a reliable timeframe, so perhaps just a temporary interlude of cooler cloudier weather midweek next week (at least away from the south) followed by a return of heat/humidity could be on the cards.

[rmc1987]

well, 4 unsettled days, sun, mon, tues and wed and it starts to dry up again from thursday if ukmo and gfs are correct. for the point about temps being overdone on gfs, i beg to differ as the temps for today are alrweady wrong for soem regions and usually can be underdone every so often. but saying that it can over do them i agree. very interesting towards thursday onwards with the hgih start to rebuild with the high over europe. could be very humid and thundery come world cup time and hot maybe.

That would be interesting if the high were to rebuild by world cup. Can't see it getting hot, possibly warm but the support for this isn't that good. Otherwise it looks to cool down and then possibly warm up pleasantly for around the weekend with a cool down but lasting right through.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

And ecm delivers a swift kick to the wotsits for WC weekend.

Less said about 12z ecm the better from a warm point of view.

[Derp Patrol]

Well the 12z GFS chart is just a confirmation that you should not read too much into the temp predictions. Under 850s of above 10C, nearly 14C in some places in the south, it shows maxes of only 23C!

[mushymanrob]

Aye, it depends on what sort of timeframe we're looking at really, I saw a cyclonic easterly/south-easterly on the 06Z for much of FI whereas on the 12Z it turns into a cyclonic southerly type. It's certainly true that it's pretty close to a reliable timeframe, so perhaps just a temporary interlude of cooler cloudier weather midweek next week (at least away from the south) followed by a return of heat/humidity could be on the cards.

fair enough, subtle differences then..

And ecm delivers a swift kick to the wotsits for WC weekend.

Less said about 12z ecm the better from a warm point of view.

aye... the ecm doesnt want to play ball. and tbh its closer to the fax at 120 then the gfs or ukmo.. however, even if the ecm is closer to what will happen, its good that theres plenty of potential this summer. the charts arnt as bad as the previous summers where (as has been mentioned) 'summer' weather was always in fi...the fi tease.

[lukemc]

Hi,

It does appear that the ECM does want to build the high pressure again after that LP progged for next saturday clears though it looks like thier is potential for a warm pattern to build from thier on it could just be the case that it is delaying the warm pattern more than the other models.

Luke

[mushymanrob]

Hi,

It does appear that the ECM does want to build the high pressure again after that LP progged for next saturday clears though it looks like thier is potential for a warm pattern to build from thier on it could just be the case that it is delaying the warm pattern more than the other models.

Luke

theres no warmth on the ecm... its a cold run with northerlies/northeasterlies dominating fi, the opposite to what the gfs and ukmo predict.

which model will blink first?...

[rmc1987]

Well the 12z GFS chart is just a confirmation that you should not read too much into the temp predictions. Under 850s of above 10C, nearly 14C in some places in the south, it shows maxes of only 23C!

I was thinking this, maybe there won't be much sun about then. Maybe it has overdone the 850s though, because I've noticed the odd run has brought up high 850's.

theres no warmth on the ecm... its a cold run with northerlies/northeasterlies dominating fi, the opposite to what the gfs and ukmo predict.

which model will blink first?...

FI on the GFS doesn't look too warm though. So maybe there's no warmth to show surely?

[Eugene]

Yes a very cool looking ecm run, gfs doesnt look much better with easterlies and rainfall end of week with cool cyclonic westerlies not long afterwards.

[snowlover2009]

Yes a very cool looking ecm run, gfs doesnt look much better with easterlies and rainfall end of week with cool cyclonic westerlies not long afterwards.

sorry but there is nothing new with the ecm then. it was like this in winter, it would never agree with gfs and ukmo, until it finally had to come in line with the other models. tbh the ecm only went downhill this evening because it developed another low near iceland or thereabouts on the 120 hours chart. so im not buying this one tbh.

[Ben_Cambs]

Yes a very cool looking ecm run, gfs doesnt look much better with easterlies and rainfall end of week with cool cyclonic westerlies not long afterwards.

The 12z GFS OP run was a big outlier in terms of Atlantic influence and air pressure, most of the ensembles go for stronger heights than the 12z shows. It was also on the cool end of the ensembles towards the end of the run and was below the mean of the ensembles throughout the low-resolution output.

GFS 12z ens 850's:

Air pressure ens:

Edited June 5, 2010 by Snowman0697

[mushymanrob]

FI on the GFS doesn't look too warm though. So maybe there's no warmth to show surely?

deep fi isnt good on the gfs 12z, true, but that changes anyway. looking at 'the horizon', the timespan between 'reliable' and fi is the most reliable place to look for spotting new trends. and in that timeslot, c t120 - c t180 its looking good on the gfs and ukmo.

Yes a very cool looking ecm run, gfs doesnt look much better with easterlies and rainfall end of week with cool cyclonic westerlies not long afterwards.

.... and if it was the gfs that only showed just the opposite, youd be calling it a 'warm outlier', as it stands, the ecm is close to being a cold outlier but youll convieniantly overlook that in favour of trying to put a downer on events.

i doubt very much that westerlies will be 'cool' in mid june! its only reletive to warmer continental or tm air.

[mushymanrob]

the 18z isnt so good, delaying the arrival of any warmth until after next weekend. gone is the sultry humid hot weather as the 06z now suggests the depression over us instead of migrating towards biscay. oh well...

[rmc1987]

the 18z isnt so good, delaying the arrival of any warmth until after next weekend. gone is the sultry humid hot weather as the 06z now suggests the depression over us instead of migrating towards biscay. oh well...

This is quite what I meant earlier. This is more or less what I expect to happen. The 12z run was a funny one, seem to get those odd runs that want to allow some warmth. The 18z with the depression over us has been an option that we've seen a few times now and beyond that further tripe awaits us. This must be why we love the weather eh. This low was showing in FI and still is.

Even so despite previous high 850's grounds temps didn't seem to correspond so well.

Edited June 5, 2010 by rmc1987