In The News

[keithlucky]

Cracking read on the carbunkle of wind power, http://blogs.telegra...amesdelingpole/

[jethro]

I'm sorry 4 but just like your 'Arctic recovery', prior to the 2010/11/12 collapse, global temps are also showing their propensity for steep increases. Just look at this years global plot once Nina let go? Remember this is deep within a PDO-ve which is supposed to give us 1960-esqu global temps?

Seeing as we are now on the far side of the PDO-ve (it has tried it's best) we will shortly have global temps with the assist of PDO+ve (plus we can see the reductions in China's particulate pollution starting to drop off over the past 5 years so we'll also lose whatever extra 'dimming' has been at play).

Whilst most are looking for Arctic ice to disappear over summer over the next 4 years I'll be focused on global temps and the southern hemisphere circumpolar wind/current to see if I am correct in my obsevations/projections?

To be honest GW, you're the only person I've seen who's postulated that a negative PDO would produce temps similar to the 60's. To be fair, I'm not a visitor of many climate sites, never set foot in the blogosphere land of climate bickering so I may have missed these claims; but on here, you're the only one who's made them.

The globe and the climate isn't as simple as functioning on one driver, the PDO is simply one part of it. It seems to me that your repeated remarks on the PDO and it's failure to lower global temps is an effort to exaggerate warming and man's influence. Plus your idea that we're due to enter a positive phase of the PDO is simply inaccurate. The negative phase was confirmed (if memory serves me correctly) about 4 years ago. The positive and negative phases have historically gone in 20-30 year spans - that makes on average, another 20ish years still to come of a negative phase. You predicted repeatedly that the negative phase and La Nina would show signs of warming, that the cold water of a Nina would be less cold than in the past, that the Nina's of the current era and the future would be less intense - none of these predictions have materialised and to date, there appears to be no AGW signature evident in the PDO.

As for the less dimming from China, I agree it's likely but that has to be balanced against the increase in albedo which will occur as a result. Like everything else in this debate, it's not as simple or clear cut as you would appear to want people to believe.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I can see plenty of claims of the PDO influencing global temperatures and predictions of how a -ve phase will cause cooling

A quick search shows up these...

http://forum.netweat...60#entry1826824

http://forum.netweat...80#entry1846458

http://forum.netweat...60#entry1827316

... but there's loads more, and plenty of discussion about the PDO in this area from numerous years. It was a very commonly made claim by the likes of Joe B and Roy Spencer that we'd see cooling from a -ve PDO.

Anywho, Interesting to read the debates from back then if nothing else!

[pottyprof]

I can see plenty of claims of the PDO influencing global temperatures and predictions of how a -ve phase will cause cooling

A quick search shows up these...

Back then there were debates about many things, just as there are today but negative PDO was one of the questions being asked at the time. Call it the flavour of the day type of thing. Over the last couple of years GW has pretty much used it as a trophy type of thing. I don't think the answers settled anything then or will settle them now.

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks BFTV!

Most of my understanding about the workings of the salmon fishing guide (PDO) come from links folk published here? In 98', when we flipped negative, the METO was suggesting cooling/flatlining until around 2015 (end of deep negative PDO) when a resumption of warming would occur at higher rates than the 80's. I can see why this may prove true.

I have no idea where J' is getting her albedo increase from? When the particulate condensation nuclii drop out of the air and rain drops grow back to their normal size the sun will find even more dark surface across the planet esp. over northern summers? Just the Arctic Ocean would be a hige albedo flip from what the uncluttered sun last shone on.

As for the 'warming of the PDO? Just check the figures and compare them with the last major -ve PDO. Even the start point is still contested (even though the period is traditionally called once into the next phase?)

As for using PDO as a Trophy? I mention it in the way the early noughties sceptics did and in similar quantities...nothing like being fed a spoonful of your own medicine I find esp. when it was just a nasty taste with no positive properties. As it is we still await the 'cooling' that was forecast. When we look at the top ten global temps where do we find them? 80's?, 90's?, noughties?

[Coast]

Gore launches world's Dirty Weather Report

The prospect of increased weather extremes in Australia caused by a warming climate will feature prominently in an around-the-clock global webcast to be kicked off and concluded by former US vice-president Al Gore.

The 24 Hours of Reality: the Dirty Weather Report is the second annual event aimed at highlighting how climate change is already affecting every region of the world, with the likelihood of worsening extremes as fossil fuel burning raises greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. Mr Gore launched the panel from New York at noon, Sydney and Melbourne time, with Australia featured over two hours, starting from 8pm, AEDT.

“The emphasis of the Australian panel will be dirty weather in Australia, increases in temperature and hot extremes in Australia and their impacts on increasing the frequency of extreme fire weather, and impacts on the Great Barrier Reef and other natural systems,†David Karoly, a professor of meteorology at the University of Melbourne, said. “Australia is one of the biggest contributors to the causes of dirty weather, as it has the highest per person emissions of greenhouse gases among all developed countries,†he said. “It also exports large amounts of fossil fuels to other countries, coal and natural gas, which also cause more dirty weather but are not counted in Australia's emissions.â€

Others on the panel during the Australian session include Fiona Armstrong, founder of the Climate and Health Alliance; Don Henry, chief executive of the Australian Conservation Foundation; and Ken Thompson, a risk management consultant and former New South Wales deputy fire commissioner.

While scientists generally downplay the link between any single weather event and a warming climate, interest in the connection has intensified in recent months, particularly in the US. The country endured its worst drought in decades, sending global food prices higher. Last month's superstorm, which devastated large parts of the US north-east just days before the US elections, also rekindled interest in climate change - an issue largely absent from the political debates to that point.

Re-elected US President Barack Obama told his first media conference overnight that melting ice caps and increasing global temperatures are signs climate change is real and that he will seek to mitigate the damage from the phenomenon. The impact of a warming globe will be costly, and steps to cut carbon in the atmosphere will also require big investments. As a result, confronting climate change will be a difficult political undertaking, President Obama said. "You can expect that you will hear more from me in the coming months and years about how we can shape an agenda that garners bipartisan support," the President said.

Last year's Climate Reality webcast drew 8.6 million views over the internet worldwide. Adam Majcher, acting manager for The Climate Reality Project in Australia, said the timing this year was also important with international climate talks to begin in Doha, Qatar, later this month. “Without countries bringing strong commitments to the table in Doha, we're setting ourselves on a course to expose ourselves to these extreme weather events more frequently,†Mr Majcher said. “During the 24 hours, we will ask people to sign a pledge and join a global movement to demand action,†he said.

'Vulnerable'

Ms Armstrong, from the Climate and Health Alliance, said climate change and extreme weather events posed serious risks to human health and wellbeing, exposure that applied to people in both developed and developing countries. “The Queensland floods, Cyclone Yasi, and the Black Saturday bushfires show that extreme weather doesn’t discriminate – we are all equally vulnerable the harm this events can cause," Ms Armstrong said. "These events not only has serious implications for harm to infrastructure but have devastating effects on employment, with loss of livelihood and loss of social cohesion - all of which impact adversely on health and wellbeing.â€

She cited a recent global report, the 2012 DARA Climate Vulnerability Monitor: A Guide to the Cold Calculus of a Hot Planet, commissioned by 20 governments, which argued that a failure to act on climate change is costing the global economy $1.2 trillion annually and is responsible for 400,000 deaths each year. Losses are expected to increase rapidly, with 6 million deaths per annum expected by 2030 and leaving a net global loss of GDP of 3.2 per cent a year, the report found

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/gore-launches-worlds-dirty-weather-report-20121115-29dny.html#ixzz2CHOpC7Y8

Edited November 15, 2012 by Coast

[Methuselah]

I think that the latest ideas indicate that the 'dirty' clouds associated with airborne filth actually reflect more sunlight back into space...Indeed, it's their increased reflectivity (albedo) that causes global dimming, in the first place?

[Gray-Wolf]

With the amount of dimming we are told is occuring it really does raise questions as to the sensitivity of the GHG's to warming? When we enter the next 'warm phase' of natural drivers minus some of that 'dirt' then how quickly will temps respond? With some studies putting Greenlands Albedo at zero in 2014 how will more solar impact there? Were this years floods confirmation that melt water is being held in the snow (refrozen over winter) leading to higher discharge from summer ablation? and what occurs once we melt out the impacted snow? what happens when we get down to ice?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Back then there were debates about many things, just as there are today but negative PDO was one of the questions being asked at the time. Call it the flavour of the day type of thing. Over the last couple of years GW has pretty much used it as a trophy type of thing. I don't think the answers settled anything then or will settle them now.

There are more recent examples too, but a search will show them up.

Anyway, unless it's now a new rule that all posts must be in reference to a particular short time frame, I don't see the issue with what he said. Of course not everybody predicted cooling from the -ve PDO, so when he mentions claims from the people that did, not everyone needs to take it as a reference to them.

As for carrying things around like trophies, what about people with their "drier, warmer" summers gloating or increased Antarctic sea ice or Karakorum glacier gloating? All based off false assumptions and/or very old reports, but are still brought up repeatedly.

For something in the news...

A Market in Emissions Is Set to Open in California

More than six years in the making, the state’s so-called cap-and-trade program sets limits on carbon dioxide emissions for virtually all sectors of California’s economy, the ninth-largest in the world. Emissions allowances are allotted to polluters, and companies whose emissions exceed their allocations must either obtain extra allowances or buy credits from projects that cut greenhouse gas emissions.

[Methuselah]

With the amount of dimming we are told is occuring it really does raise questions as to the sensitivity of the GHG's to warming? When we enter the next 'warm phase' of natural drivers minus some of that 'dirt' then how quickly will temps respond? With some studies putting Greenlands Albedo at zero in 2014 how will more solar impact there? Were this years floods confirmation that melt water is being held in the snow (refrozen over winter) leading to higher discharge from summer ablation? and what occurs once we melt out the impacted snow? what happens when we get down to ice?

How does one arrive at a Greenland albedo of zero? Doesn't that require an entirely black surface?

[laserguy]

How does one arrive at a Greenland albedo of zero? Doesn't that require an entirely black surface?

Well I guess anything's possible in the wacky world of AGW, but an albedo of zero is more likely to be attained as a result of being frazzled by a direct hit from a CME.

[BornFromTheVoid]

SOTC Report for October 2012

Global Highlights

• The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for October 2012 tied with 2008 as the fifth warmest October on record, at 0.63°C (1.13°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F). Records began in 1880.
  
• The globally-averaged land surface temperature for October 2012 was the eighth warmest October on record, at 0.92°C (1.66°F) above average. The globally-averaged ocean surface temperature tied with 2004 as the fourth warmest October on record, at 0.52°C (0.94°F) above average.
  
• The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for January–October 2012 was the eighth warmest such period on record, at 0.58°C (1.04°F) above the 20th century average
  

On course for the warmest La Nina year on record too.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/10

[Rainy]

Cracking read on the carbunkle of wind power, http://blogs.telegra...amesdelingpole/

Fret not. We can always unbolt them and take them away if there's a better idea for some power gen. At least they are not belching out filthy smoke or leaving a noxious residue for a few thousand years.

Donald Trump is lurking with his spanners --

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2106736/Donald-Trump-funds-10m-anti-wind-farm-war-chest-preserve-nature.html

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm sure Wolf baiting is an acceptable sport in some parts of the world BFTV?

Still , none so blind eh? Many of the folk who we meet continually panning the same tired ideas even though the data is stacked against them , and launching into pedantic defences when this is pointed out, do not wish to open their minds beyond their own conceptions? This late in the day folk appear 'locked in' for the duration? As we have seen with the Sea Ice that 'duration' grows ever shorter and so the final outcome will be known soon enough. for some the prospect of seeing the 'consensus' proven right will only lead to further measures to show themselves in a better light be that the scramble for 'middle ground' that we see so many doubters claiming to hold or a desperate search for another suite of drivers than could bring about such an observable change as we have at present (and the escalation of such as skies clean and GHG's raise ever higher?

My favourite, by far, would be pinning all change on the release of the cold frozen part of the carbon cycle as the permafrost melts. We have seen the level of tundra fires Russia has been experiencing over the past few years so all of theat darkened earth will hasten the melt in those regions (leading to further drying and fires).

At the end of the day it will all be mother Nature and not mankind to blame?

Pete , I'm sure folk have posted up the graphs showing this pheniminal drop off in Albedo over the coming few years? I'll have a dig around on the Greenland thread?

EDIT: My Booboo!

I'd glanced the image but not the axis titles! Still quite a predicted drop off as the 'dirty layer' becomes more concentrated each summer that it's revealed?

Edited November 16, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[knocker]

I've posted this before but some actual graphs.

Greenland ice reflectivity continues dropping at highest elevations

An 6 August, 2012 updated compilation of NASA MODIS observations of Greenland ice sheet reflectivity (a.k.a. albedo) indicate that through the 2012 melt season, beginning ~28 May, the ice sheet has remained in a darkened state as in 2011 and 2010.

Remaining in this condition, the ice sheet has absorbed ~200 Exajoules more solar energy for June-July, more than twice the US annual energy consumption, in a self-reinforcing feedback loop. For July, the 100 Exajoules more energy absorption is sufficient, for example to melt 136 Gt of ice at a temperature of 0 deg C. The 2003-09 average annual loss rate was 250 Gt [[1]]. But, not all of the energy goes into melting. Another way to think of this additional energy flux is that it is sufficient to bring to the melting point a 9 cm thick layer of ice sheet accumulation area snow having a temperature of -10 C. In reality, the increased energy is disposed by some combination of melting and snowpack heating.

The key aspect about albedo change is that it that amplifies the effect of 1.) warming and 2.) black carbon loading. The impact is felt in terms of snowpack heating and melt. Because both albedo is low and air temperatures are high summer 2012, we know that an exceptional, record setting melt season is underway.

Perhaps most remarkable about the 2012 pattern is how much darker the snow has been in the higher elevation net snow accumulation area. June and July monthly average reflectivity is below the 2000-2011 average across the southern-central area where surface elevations are above 2,000 m (6,561 feet). A purple area about 1/4 the distance north of the ice sheet southern tip at an elevation of 2,400 m (7,874 ft) has reflectivity 0.07 or 7% below the already declining 2000-2011 June (12 year) average.

Year 2012 albedo reduction is most abnormal in the accumulation area between 2000 and 2500 m elevation. Albedo, normally expressed as a dimensionless index is here expressed as a percentage.

http://bprc.osu.edu/wiki/Greenland_Ice_Albedo_Monitoring

Edited November 16, 2012 by knocker

[keithlucky]

No increase in droughts http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.ca/

[Interitus]

No increase in droughts http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.ca/

Interesting - from the research

Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation7 that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades.

From the blogger "All this said, human-caused climate change remains a reality.

Didn't have you down as a warmist.

[keithlucky]

No im not a warmist but when you have warmist who cannot find any evidence in increased drought increased tornado"s increased storm activity increased sea temperatures you know that GW is not happening.

[Methuselah]

No im not a warmist but when you have warmist who cannot find any evidence in increased drought increased tornado"s increased storm activity increased sea temperatures you know that GW is not happening.

No, you don't!

[BornFromTheVoid]

No im not a warmist but when you have warmist who cannot find any evidence in increased drought increased tornado"s increased storm activity increased sea temperatures you know that GW is not happening.

So Keith, where do you think the major flaw lies with AGW? Is it that CO2 isn't capable of producing warming? Or something else maybe?

[John S2]

on course for the warmest La Nina year on record too.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.../global/2012/10

Why is 2012 being classed as a La Nina year? We had La Nina conditions at the beginning of 2012 but surely it makes more sense for 2012 to be classified as ENSO neutral? Surely any particular year should only be classified as a La Nina year if La Nina has been the dominant state when conditions are averaged over the whole year?

Edited November 16, 2012 by John S2

[knocker]

Thank heaven there are no signs of Global Warming.

Himalayan glaciers will shrink even if temperatures hold steady

Come rain or shine, or even snow, some glaciers of the Himalayas will continue shrinking for many years to come.

The forecast by Brigham Young University geology professor Summer Rupper comes after her research on Bhutan, a region in the bull's-eye of the monsoonal Himalayas. Published in Geophysical Research Letters, Rupper's most conservative findings indicate that even if climate remained steady, almost 10 percent of Bhutan's glaciers would vanish within the next few decades. What's more, the amount of melt water coming off these glaciers could drop by 30 percent.

Rupper says increasing temperatures are just one culprit behind glacier retreat. A number of climate factors such as wind, humidity, precipitation and evaporation can affect how glaciers behave. With some Bhutanese glaciers as long as 13 miles, an imbalance in any of these areas can take them decades to completely respond.

"These particular glaciers have seen so much warming in the past few decades that they're currently playing lots of catch up,†Rupper explains.

http://news.byu.edu/...nov-bhutan.aspx

Edited November 16, 2012 by knocker

[keithlucky]

So Keith, where do you think the major flaw lies with AGW? Is it that CO2 isn't capable of producing warming? Or something else maybe?

In the ice core record, CO2 increase has always lagged behind temperature rises and the lag involved is estimated to be 400 to 800 years. There has never been a period when a CO2 rise has preceded global warming. That is an assertion of such low probability that it should require very powerful evidence to support it. I have seen no such evidence.The presence of the sun must be a much bigger influence on global temperatures than the greenhouse characteristics of CO2 on it’s own. That"s the point i am making. Edited November 16, 2012 by keithlucky

[knocker]

In the ice core record, CO2 increase has always lagged behind temperature rises and the lag involved is estimated to be 400 to 800 years. There has never been a period when a CO2 rise has preceded global warming. That is an assertion of such low probability that it should require very powerful evidence to support it. I have seen no such evidence.The presence of the sun must be a much bigger influence on global temperatures than the greenhouse characteristics of CO2 on it’s own. That"s the point i am making.

Well I don't know about that.

Rising CO2 levels linked to global warming during last deglaciation

CORVALLIS, Ore. – Many scientists have long suspected that rising levels of carbon dioxide and the global warming that ended the last Ice Age were somehow linked, but establishing a clear cause-and-effect relationship between CO₂ and global warming from the geologic record has remained difficult.

A new study, funded by the National Science Foundation and published in the journal Nature, identifies this relationship and provides compelling evidence that rising CO₂ caused much of the global warming.

Lead author Jeremy Shakun, who conducted much of the research as a doctoral student at Oregon State University, said the key to understanding the role of CO₂ is to reconstruct globally averaged temperature changes during the end of the last Ice Age, which contrasts with previous efforts that only compared local temperatures in Antarctica to carbon dioxide levels.

"Carbon dioxide has been suspected as an important factor in ending the last Ice Age, but its exact role has always been unclear because rising temperatures reflected in Antarctic ice cores came before rising levels of CO₂," said Shakun, who is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Post-doctoral Fellow at Harvard University and Columbia University.

"But if you reconstruct temperatures on a global scale – and not just examine Antarctic temperatures – it becomes apparent that the CO₂ change slightly preceded much of the global warming, and this means the global greenhouse effect had an important role in driving up global temperatures and bringing the planet out of the last Ice Age," Shakun added.

Here is what the researchers think happened.

Small changes in the Earth's orbit around the sun affected the amount of sunlight striking the northern hemisphere, melting ice sheets that covered Canada and Europe. That fresh water flowed off of the continent into the Atlantic Ocean, where it formed a lid over the sinking end of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation – a part of a global network of currents that brings warm water up from the tropics and today keeps Europe temperate despite its high latitudes.

The ocean circulation warms the northern hemisphere at the expense of the south, the researchers say, but when the fresh water draining off the continent at the end of the last Ice Age entered the North Atlantic, it essentially put the brakes on the current and disrupted the delivery of heat to the northern latitudes.

"When the heat transport stops, it cools the north and heat builds up in the Southern Hemisphere," Shakun said. "The Antarctic would have warmed rapidly, much faster than the time it takes to get CO₂ out of the deep sea, where it was likely stored.

"The warming of the Southern Ocean may have shifted the winds as well as melted sea ice, and eventually drawn the CO₂ out of the deep water, and released it into the atmosphere," Shakun said. "That, in turn, would have amplified warming on a global scale."

The researchers constructed a record of global surface temperature from 80 temperature reconstructions spanning the end of the Ice Age and found that average temperature around the Earth correlated with – and generally lagged behind – rising levels of CO₂.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-04/osu-rcl040212.php

[Gray-Wolf]

When temp has been 'the driver' (due to orbital forcings) it takes a while for the carbon cycle to expand (as past 'frozen carbon' is released from the ice to return into the system) or contract as ever more carbon is removed by the expansion of ice caps and changes to areas were growth is sustainable.

The time periods when we see temp follow CO2 are rare in the record but not absent. The flooding of the Deccan traps (55 million years ago?) was one such period when vast amounts of CO2 were released during that period of flood Basalt production. We also see period where carbonate rocks undergo rapid degradation (either from surface weathering or from 'Melt' at plate margins.

This is the crux of the worries we have and if you are not complete in your information Kieth the I understand where your confusion arises. So , to recap, yes Temp does follow CO2 increases on the rare occasions that 'new' (virgin?) CO2 is added into the Carbon Cycle but this is far rarer than the expansion and contraction from the Carbon readily available to the carbon cycle.

Our introducing fossil carbon that should have remained inert has mimicked the release of the carbon at a plate margin (imagine the oil/coal/gas bumping into a subduction zone around the ring of fire?) releasing 'virgin' carbon into the carbon cycle. As warming continues we will also release the carbon held in suspended animation, via the ice sheets/permafrost, further adding to the issues.

Edited November 16, 2012 by Gray-Wolf