In The News

[Cloudman]

15 years has been mentioned as statistically significant period:

“Near-zero and even negative trends are common for intervals of a decade or less in the simulations, due to the model’s internal climate variability. The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate.â€

Source: http://www1.ncdc.noa...2008-lo-rez.pdf

What is required here though is a statistical analysis. I am disputing that there has been a period of 15 years with zero trend as this is not achieved by drawing a graph and then cherry picking start and end points. To do this properly you need to take into acount the much longer data set to avoid start and end point bias and so get a reliable analysis.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Which page please?

Page 24.

I think on top of what cloudman said, we'd need to compare the different global datasets, rather than just using HadCRUT.

[Polar Maritime]

[knocker]

Too late to stop global warming by cutting emissions

Scientists argue for adaption policies

Governments and institutions should focus on developing adaption policies to address and mitigate against the negative impact of global warming, rather than putting the emphasis on carbon trading and capping greenhouse-gas emissions, argue Johannesburg-based Wits University geoscientist Dr Jasper Knight and Dr Stephan Harrison from the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom.

"At present, governments' attempts to limit greenhouse-gas emissions through carbon cap-and-trade schemes and to promote renewable and sustainable energy sources are prob¬ably too late to arrest the inevitable trend of global warming," the scientists write in a paper published online in the scientific journal, Nature Climate Change, on Monday, 14 October 2012.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-10/uotw-tlt101712.php

But more importantly.

Barley genome could hold key to better beer

The barley genome unravelled… and it's bigger than yours!

An international consortium of scientists has published a high resolution draft of the barley genome. The research, published in the journal Nature, will help to produce new and better barley varieties that are vital for the beer and whisky industries.

The UK team behind the research was led by Professor Robbie Waugh of Scotland's James Hutton Institute who worked with researchers at The Genome Analysis Centre, Norwich.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-10/babs-bgc101712.php

[knocker]

Cleaner fracking

The technology that opened a wealth of new natural gas resources in the U.S. is producing millions of gallons of dirty water — enough from one typical gas well to cover a football field to a depth of 9-15 feet. Cleaning up that byproduct of "fracking" is the topic of the cover story of the current issue of Chemical & Engineering News. C&EN is the weekly newsmagazine of the American Chemical Society, the world's largest scientific society.

Melody M. Bomgardner, C&EN senior business editor, explains that hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, uses a mixture of water and chemicals injected into the ground to break open rock and release natural gas. Some of that water comes back out of the ground, laden with various salts, minerals, heavy metals and other substances that pose health and environmental risks. The article describes how water treatment firms are responding to that challenge, developing new ways to treat fracking wastewater and competing for business.

Some companies have developed chemical treatments to remove contaminants and microbes from the wastewater, which can then be reused, while others use evaporators to separate fresh water from the brine. Bomgardner notes that treating the wastewater is a special challenge in the Marcellus Shale area of the Appalachian Basin, where wastewater — millions of gallons per well — must be trucked away for disposal. The cost of disposal is spurring oil and gas companies to adopt these and other technologies that could limit the amount of contaminated water that reaches people, plants and animals, the article notes.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-10/acs-cf101712.php

PDF

http://cen.acs.org/content/dam/cen/static/pdfs/Article_Assets/90/09042-cover.pdf

[knocker]

Tropical collapse caused by lethal heat

Extreme temperatures blamed for 'Dead Zone'

Scientists have discovered why the 'broken world' following the worst extinction of all time lasted so long – it was simply too hot to survive.

The end-Permian mass extinction, which occurred around 250 million years ago in the pre-dinosaur era, wiped out nearly all the world's species. Typically, a mass extinction is followed by a 'dead zone' during which new species are not seen for tens of thousands of years. In this case, the dead zone, during the Early Triassic period which followed, lasted for a perplexingly long period: five million years.

A study jointly led by the University of Leeds and China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), in collaboration with the University of Erlangen-Nurnburg (Germany), shows the cause of this lengthy devastation was a temperature rise to lethal levels in the tropics: around 50-60°C on land, and 40°C at the sea-surface.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-10/uol-tcc101712.php

[keithlucky]

No rise or fall in sea temperatures in over 200yrs http://www.thegwpf.o...-1775-as-today/

Edited October 19, 2012 by keithlucky

[jethro]

A step in the right direction?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2220044/Pioneering-British-firm-produces-petrol-air-breakthrough-solve-worlds-energy-crisis.html

[keithlucky]

This also along the same lines http://www.21stcente...-into-jet-fuel/

[Polar Maritime]

[Methuselah]

Could this be part of the solution to the 'problem' of energy-storage?

http://www.nh3canada.com/NH3_Canada/Welcome.html

[Gray-Wolf]

Could this be part of the solution to the 'problem' of energy-storage?

http://www.nh3canada...da/Welcome.html

You'd imagine so? If the 'fuel' is near ubiquitous then , even though no perpetual motion machine, the costs are offset by the availability of the fuel. All we need is a household version to complement your solar and wind and off you go! Fuel up at home and run your heating /cooking via wind/solar with no GHG's?

[Coast]

Climate change target missed due to 'extremely cold weather' in 2010

Scotland has failed to meet its first legally binding climate change target. The first Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions Annual Target Report states that Scotland emitted 54.7 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2010 — 1.1 megatons above the target set by the Climate Change Act 2009. At Holyrood, Environment Minister Paul Wheelhouse blamed "exceptional cold snaps", "year-to-year fluctuations", "factors beyond our control", "budget constraints", "the challenging financial environment" and data revisions for the rise.

But Labour accused the Scottish Government of using "every excuse under the sun, including the lack of sun" to detract from the "failure of their policy direction". Mr Wheelhouse said: "Many will remember 2010 was a challenging year for all sorts of reasons, not least the two exceptional cold snaps. This was a major factor but not the only factor as to why emissions rose in 2010. "Naturally, I and all members of the Scottish Government are disappointed that Scotland has missed its first climate change target; 2010's increase in greenhouse gas emissions was the first year-on-year increase experienced in Scotland since 2006." Scotland's emissions have fallen by 24.3% since 1990, he said, predicting that they will "continue to reduce".

The UK Department of Energy and Climate Change recorded a provisional 25% reduction in UK domestic gas consumption between 2010 and 2011, which Mr Wheelhouse believes will be reflected in Scotland's figures for 2011. "When it voted unanimously to pass its Climate Change Act the Scottish Parliament acknowledged that meeting such ambitious targets would be challenging," he said. "Year-to-year fluctuations and factors beyond our control are inevitable but the trend remains strongly downwards. "Scottish ministers remain fully committed to delivering Scotland's ambitious and world-leading greenhouse gas emissions targets, despite the budget constraints and challenging financial environment we're all operating in. "Extremely cold weather for prolonged periods at the start and end of 2010 had a major impact on emissions. The average temperature for January to March and October to December was the coldest since 1919. As a consequence, domestic heating emissions rose and the consumption of heating fuels increased."

Emissions in the residential sector increased by 15% in this period, equating to 1.1 megatons of emissions, he said. A further one megaton was added by industrial processes through "historic emissions data being significantly revised upwards due to new data being made available". Labour environment spokeswoman Claire Baker said the new report represents "a failure". She said: "The Scottish Government has offered every excuse under the sun, including the lack of sun, but we must now accept responsibility for the failure of their policy direction. "Stop Climate Chaos, in response to this year's draft budget, said the budget 'makes it clear that the Government is not taking sufficiently seriously the need for urgent action to tackle emissions and meet its legally binding climate change targets'. "This emissions failure makes future targets even more challenging. We are not seeing the step-change needed to achieve our ambitions and Scotland is set to fail to meet all but one of the annual emissions reduction targets between 2010 and 2022."

Speaking after the debate, Green MSP Alison Johnstone said: "It's ironic to see other MSPs applauding a massive new road project for Aberdeenshire in the same hour as they sit solemnly to hear that a climate target has been missed. "Passing the Climate Act didn't make the problem go away. That requires really bold action on housing and transport that we're just not seeing from the Scottish Government, despite the potential to provide a great deal of employment in construction. "Ministers have missed this crucial first target, which makes it harder to stay on track in future years, but failed to announce a single new policy in response. "There is a feeling of complacency on the climate at Holyrood that must be challenged or Scotland's self-promoted status as a climate leader will unravel within a few years."

Liberal Democrat climate change spokesman Jim Hume said: "After missing its first climate change target the Scottish Government should be stepping its efforts up a gear. "Almost half of all carbon emissions come from housing and transport sectors but the Minister for Environment and Climate Change admitted during his statement that he hasn't even met with his relevant colleagues to discuss this. "Scottish Liberal Democrats want the Scottish Government to take its climate change commitment seriously. That must start with its own ministers addressing climate change within their own policy areas."

http://news.stv.tv/scotland/196398-climate-change-target-missed-due-to-extremely-cold-weather-in-2010/

[BornFromTheVoid]

Climate scientist Michael Mann sues Competitive Enterprise Institute, National Review

On October 22, climate scientist Michael Mann sued for defamation the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI), The National Review (TNR), and two writers associated with the two organizations. The lawsuit is regarding accusations made by Rand Simberg of the CEI and Mark Steyn of NRO that Mann had committed academic and scientific fraud and for comparing Mann to convicted child molester Jerry Sandusky. Mann announced the lawsuit on his Facebook page. Mann and his attorney, John B Williams of the law firm Cozen O’Connor, originally demanded that the CEI and TNR retract their original articles under threat of a lawsuit, but both organizations refused to do apologize for or retract the articles.

The first article, written by Rand Simberg of the CEI, originally claimed that

Mann could be said to be the Jerry Sandusky of climate science, except that instead of molesting children, he has molested and tortured data in the service of politicized science that could have dire economic consequences for the nation and planet

http://scholarsandro...ational-review/

But yeah, the foul play and personal attacks come from both sides...

[laserguy]

But yeah, the foul play and personal attacks come from both sides...

Bonkers,innit? Alongside ambulance chasers, PPI claims and the like, it can't be long before I've got someone phoning to ask if I've ever been called a rude name at work and would I like to sue? Why,it was only yesterday that someone called me a ****head! I'm so traumatised that I've phoned in sick for the next six months while I sort out my claim. Some folk need to buy a helmet.

[knocker]

Large-scale production of biofuels made from algae poses sustainability concerns

Further innovations needed to reach full potential

WASHINGTON — Scaling up the production of biofuels made from algae to meet at least 5 percent -- approximately 39 billion liters -- of U.S. transportation fuel needs would place unsustainable demands on energy, water, and nutrients, says a new report from the National Research Council. However, these concerns are not a definitive barrier for future production, and innovations that would require research and development could help realize algal biofuels' full potential.

Biofuels derived from algae and cyanobacteria are possible alternatives to petroleum-based fuels and could help the U.S. meet its energy security needs and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide (CO2). Algal biofuels offer potential advantages over biofuels made from land plants, including algae's ability to grow on non-croplands in cultivation ponds of freshwater, salt water, or wastewater. The number of companies developing algal biofuels has been increasing, and several oil companies are investing in them. Given these and other interests, the National Research Council was asked to identify sustainability issues associated with large-scale development of algal biofuels.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-10/naos-lpo102412.php

[knocker]

WASHINGTON -- The average area covered by the Antarctic ozone hole this year was the second smallest in the last 20 years, according to data from NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites. Scientists attribute the change to warmer temperatures in the Antarctic lower stratosphere.

The ozone hole reached its maximum size Sept. 22, covering 8.2 million square miles (21.2 million square kilometers), or the area of the United States, Canada and Mexico combined. The average size of the 2012 ozone hole was 6.9 million square miles (17.9 million square kilometers). The Sept. 6, 2000 ozone hole was the largest on record at 11.5 million square miles (29.9 million square kilometers).

"The ozone hole mainly is caused by chlorine from human-produced chemicals, and these chlorine levels are still sizable in the Antarctic stratosphere," said NASA atmospheric scientist Paul Newman of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. "Natural fluctuations in weather patterns resulted in warmer stratospheric temperatures this year. These temperatures led to a smaller ozone hole."

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/ozone-hole-2012.html

[4wd]

High temperature records broken in USA during 2012.

That's none then.

[knocker]

We had better leave March out of the equation then.

U.S. records warmest March; more than 15,000 warm temperature records broken

First quarter of 2012 also warmest on record; early March tornado outbreak is year's first "billion dollar disaster"

Record and near-record breaking temperatures dominated the eastern two-thirds of the nation and contributed to the warmest March on record for the contiguous United States, a record that dates back to 1895. More than 15,000 warm temperature records were broken during the month.

The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20^th century average for March and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months (117+ years) that have passed since the U.S. climate record began, only one month, January 2006, has seen a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012.

http://www.ncdc.noaa...national/2012/3

EDIT

The January-September period was the warmest first nine months of any year on record for the contiguous United States. The national temperature of 58.9°F was 3.8°F above the 20^th century average, and 1.3°F above the previous record warm January-September of 2006. During the nine-month period, 46 states had temperatures among their ten warmest, with 25 states being record warm. Only Washington had statewide temperatures near average for the period.

http://www.noaa.gov/

Edited October 25, 2012 by knocker

[knocker]

Arctic wind patterns changing; changes seen in jet stream

23.10.2012 - Water & Oceans, Ice & Snow, Arctic

A study conducted by James Overland from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University has found that the normal east-west flow of high altitude winds in the Arctic during the summer is being increasingly replaced by currents that undulate more north and south – a phenomenon known as the Arctic dipole anomaly.

Their research, published in Geophysical Research Letters, indicates that this pattern has become more common in the early summer over the last 6 years.

This change in wind pattern has led to a general weakening of the Jet Stream and a greater meandering of its flow. This change allows more cold Arctic air to penetrate further south, while allowing more warm air form the mid-latitudes to penetrate further north. More southerly winds in particular arrive on the shores of the East Siberian and Chuckchi Seas, keeping them ice-free for longer periods during the year.

http://www.sciencepoles.org/news/news_detail/arctic_wind_patterns_changing_changes_seen_in_jet_stream/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[laserguy]

Re the temp maps from 4wd and knocker. They apparently come from the same people,so what gives? All you who are still undecided about this global warming malarkey must be as puzzled as a young child who is told by his mother that Santa is real, but whose equally trustworthy father insists otherwise. If Santa's no-show could be explained by him getting stuck in the chimney, Mummy could tell the kid that "he's in the pipeline" or somesuch related AGW jargon.

[keithlucky]

We had better leave March out of the equation then.

U.S. records warmest March; more than 15,000 warm temperature records broken

First quarter of 2012 also warmest on record; early March tornado outbreak is year's first "billion dollar disaster"

Record and near-record breaking temperatures dominated the eastern two-thirds of the nation and contributed to the warmest March on record for the contiguous United States, a record that dates back to 1895. More than 15,000 warm temperature records were broken during the month.

The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20^th century average for March and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months (117+ years) that have passed since the U.S. climate record began, only one month, January 2006, has seen a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012.

http://www.ncdc.noaa...national/2012/3

EDIT

The January-September period was the warmest first nine months of any year on record for the contiguous United States. The national temperature of 58.9°F was 3.8°F above the 20^th century average, and 1.3°F above the previous record warm January-September of 2006. During the nine-month period, 46 states had temperatures among their ten warmest, with 25 states being record warm. Only Washington had statewide temperatures near average for the period.

http://www.noaa.gov/

The summer of 2012 is now over and all temperature data recorded. Guess how many states set new state high-temperature records in 2012? None! According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), not one of our 50 states set a new state high temperature record in 2012 (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec)

[Methuselah]

The summer of 2012 is now over and all temperature data recorded. Guess how many states set new state high-temperature records in 2012? None! According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), not one of our 50 states set a new state high temperature record in 2012 (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec)

And?

[4wd]

Re the temp maps from 4wd and knocker. They apparently come from the same people,so what gives? All you who are still undecided about this global warming malarkey must be as puzzled as a young child who is told by his mother that Santa is real, but whose equally trustworthy father insists otherwise. If Santa's no-show could be explained by him getting stuck in the chimney, Mummy could tell the kid that "he's in the pipeline" or somesuch related AGW jargon.

The data is from NOAA and not in dispute.

It's all about whether you want to spin record breaking heat and global warming catastrophe or take a rational view by observng that no new high temperature records were broken despite all the media and activist hoo haa.

[Methuselah]

The data is from NOAA and not in dispute.

It's all about whether you want to spin record breaking heat and global warming catastrophe or take a rational view by observng that no new high temperature records were broken despite all the media and activist hoo haa.

I wonder what folks would be saying, if we were ever to get a three month-long hot summer having 90 days' over 32C, but never exceeding the high posted in 2003? Would it not still be a 'record-breaker'?