In The News

[keithlucky]

When temp has been 'the driver' (due to orbital forcings) it takes a while for the carbon cycle to expand (as past 'frozen carbon' is released from the ice to return into the system) or contract as ever more carbon is removed by the expansion of ice caps and changes to areas were growth is sustainable.

The time periods when we see temp follow CO2 are rare in the record but not absent. The flooding of the Deccan traps (55 million years ago?) was one such period when vast amounts of CO2 were released during that period of flood Basalt production. We also see period where carbonate rocks undergo rapid degradation (either from surface weathering or from 'Melt' at plate margins.

This is the crux of the worries we have and if you are not complete in your information Kieth the I understand where your confusion arises. So , to recap, yes Temp does follow CO2 increases on the rare occasions that 'new' (virgin?) CO2 is added into the Carbon Cycle but this is far rarer than the expansion and contraction from the Carbon readily available to the carbon cycle.

Our introducing fossil carbon that should have remained inert has mimicked the release of the carbon at a plate margin (imagine the oil/coal/gas bumping into a subduction zone around the ring of fire?) releasing 'virgin' carbon into the carbon cycle. As warming continues we will also release the carbon held in suspended animation, via the ice sheets/permafrost, further adding to the issues.

If world temps were higher in 1998 why has temperatures fallen since then yet CO2 is still rising?This proves CO2 has no link to global warming.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Why is 2012 being classed as a La Nina year? We had La Nina conditions at the beginning of 2012 but surely it makes more sense for 2012 to be classified as ENSO neutral? Surely any particular year should only be classified as a La Nina year if La Nina has been the dominant state when conditions are averaged over the whole year?

It'd classed as a La Nina year because the first 3 months were all La Nina.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/10/supplemental/page-2/

In the ice core record, CO2 increase has always lagged behind temperature rises and the lag involved is estimated to be 400 to 800 years. There has never been a period when a CO2 rise has preceded global warming. That is an assertion of such low probability that it should require very powerful evidence to support it. I have seen no such evidence.The presence of the sun must be a much bigger influence on global temperatures than the greenhouse characteristics of CO2 on it’s own. That"s the point i am making.

I'm looking for your opinion, not another non-referenced quote.

But the reason CO2 usually lags temperature rise is because most previous temperature fluctuations were initiated by things like orbital forcing, volcanic activity and shifting ocean current, etc.

These would then cause the release of CO2, which would enhance the warming. All we've done is skip the middle man and go straight to releasing the CO2, which is plenty capable of causing warming, due to being a greenhouse gas.

[Methuselah]

If world temps were higher in 1998 why has temperatures fallen since then yet CO2 is still rising?This proves CO2 has no link to global warming.

No. It doesn't!

[knocker]

If world temps were higher in 1998 why has temperatures fallen since then yet CO2 is still rising?This proves CO2 has no link to global warming.

The general trend from 1958 seems to correlate quite well.

https://sites.google.com/site/marclimategraphs/

Edited November 16, 2012 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

If world temps were higher in 1998 why has temperatures fallen since then yet CO2 is still rising?This proves CO2 has no link to global warming.

Would you say that about the seasons too? Why does it get colder at winter when CO2 continues to rise?

All it proves is that CO2 is not the only influence on global temperatures. It does not dominate inter or intra annual fluctuations, only the long term trend.

Lets have a look at the graph from another perspective...

Temperatures racing ahead of CO2

[Gray-Wolf]

If world temps were higher in 1998 why has temperatures fallen since then yet CO2 is still rising?This proves CO2 has no link to global warming.

But by that logic any supervolcano would not qualify as a 'warming event' after spewing masses of GHG's because of the 'dimming' the ash and Sulphates caused over the first 7 years?

The human Volcano has been spewing it's portion of 'Dimming' pollution along with the GHG's. We in the west began dealing with this after the scale of deaths from the smogs (and all the associated respiratrory issues?) became too much to bare. Asia , with our guidance and assistance, is now implementing it's own 'clear air' measures.

For the first time, since we engaged on the fossil fuel binge, we will shortly be allowing most all of the suns energy onto earth.

As for 1998, though a 'Super Nino' year, it is not the warmest in the current record? Thast would suggest that temps have risen since 98'?

[Methuselah]

The 'sceptics' continued misrepresentation of basic statistics never ceases to be exceedingly tedious!

A similarly futile exercise in obfuscation would be to deny that UK winters are currently getting cooler: last winter was warmer than the one that preceded it - ergo, UK winters are on a warming trend.

[knocker]

Quite an interesting article.

Dartmouth plant biologist C. Robertson (Rob) McClung is not your typical clock-watcher. His clocks are internal, biological, and operate in circadian rhythms—cycles based on a 24-hour period. Living organisms depend upon these clocks to keep pace with the Earth’s daily rotation and the recurring changes it imposes on the environment. These clocks allow the plant or animal to anticipate the changes and adapt to them by modifying its biology, behavior, and biochemistry.

http://now.dartmouth.edu/2012/11/dartmouth-research-the-clocks-are-ticking-and-the-climate-is-changing/

[knocker]

Aerosols, volcanoes and global dimming.

https://sites.google...rclimategraphs/

[Polar Maritime]

[VillagePlank]

A similarly futile exercise in obfuscation would be to deny that UK winters are currently getting cooler: last winter was warmer than the one that preceded it - ergo, UK winters are on a warming trend.

Just out of interest, the winter CET is increasing,

By 0.007^oC/yr, but it's still going up; it will take approximately 286 years to get our winters CET to the dangerous +2^oC increase from the present day - excluding natural variation, of course.

(Of note, and perhaps worthy of serious study: note the local maxima on the chart - it is more or less level, but also note the local minima on the chart - that is going up at a much more serious rate in recent times, so we can say winter maximas aren't necessary getting warmer, but the minimas are)

Edited November 16, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[knocker]

Airborne particles smuggle pollutants to far reaches of globe

Symbiotic relationship between pollutants and airborne particles explains how city pollution ends up in Arctic

RICHLAND, Wash. -- Pollution from fossil fuel burning and forest fires reaches all the way to the Arctic, even though it should decay long before it travels that far. Now, lab research can explain how pollution makes its lofty journey: rather than ride on the surface of airborne particles, pollutants snuggle inside, protected from the elements on the way. The results will help scientists improve atmospheric air-quality and pollution transport models.

The results also show that the particles that envelop pollutants also benefit from this arrangement. The new study in Environmental Science & Technology shows that the airborne particles, made from natural molecules mostly given off by live or burning plants, last longer with a touch of pollutant packed inside. The pollutants are known as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, or PAHs, and are regulated by environmental agencies due to their toxicity.

"What we've learned through fundamental studies on model systems in the lab has very important implications for long-range transport of pollutants in the real world," said physical chemist Alla Zelenyuk of the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. "In this study, we propose a new explanation for how PAHs get transported so far, by demonstrating that airborne particles become a protective vessel for PAH transport."

Floating in the air and invisible to the eye, airborne particles known as secondary organic aerosols live and die. Born from carbon-based molecules given off by trees, vegetation, and fossil fuel burning, these airborne SOA particles travel the currents and contribute to cloud formation. Along for the ride are pollutants, the PAHs, that have long been thought to coat the particles on their surface.

For decades, atmospheric scientists have been trying to explain how atmospheric particles manage to transport harmful pollutants to pristine environments thousands of miles away from their starting point. The particles collected in areas such as the Arctic also pack higher concentrations of pollutants than scientists' computer models predict.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-11/dnnl-aps111512.php

[Methuselah]

So are folk saying that Kieth is puposefully denying the facts and misrepresenting a small selection of data to support a stance that is not able to stand up to scrutiny?

I honestly thought he'd not been in full reciept of the facts (as we know them) and was forming an opinion on incomplete knowledge?

No Ian, it's not Keith that's misrepresenting the data, it's those who create the blogs...

[knocker]

It seems to me there is a basic problem with this discussion. I don't have a problem with reasoned scientific argument that rejects AGW. But I do do with statements that the atmosphere and oceans are not warming, despite all the evidence, for what ever reason. It's a bit like saying black is white. And I'm unsure why people should take this position unless it's just to be perverse. And Pete should we not consider the blogs and the person behind them before offering it up as decent science.

Edited November 16, 2012 by knocker

[knocker]

Streuth and here was me thinking it was the othe way round.

Bad air means bad news for seniors' brainpower

Living in areas of high air pollution can lead to decreased cognitive function in older adults, according to new research presented in San Diego at The Gerontological Society of America's (GSA) 65th Annual Scientific Meeting.

This finding is based on data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Health and Retirement Study. The analysis was conducted by Jennifer Ailshire, PhD, a National Institute on Aging postdoctoral fellow in the Center for Biodemography and Population Health and the Andrus Gerontology Center at the University of Southern California.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-11/tgso-bam111312.php#

[Rainy]

A nippy winter on the way according to the Express

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/358717/Coldest-winter-in-100-years-on-way

[Gray-Wolf]

A nippy winter on the way according to the Express

http://www.express.c...00-years-on-way

Break out the deck chairs then?

That said more and more of the 'fringe' forecasters are gambling on the 'Arctic outbreaks' associated with low sea ice destabilisation of the northern hemisphere circulation patterns. We have seen these 'rouge' polar outbreaks bringing heavy snow/low temps around the northern hemisphere since at least 02' with many stadiums/shopping centres collapsing under the weight of snow.

Edit: so i checked the 0z run for any signs

Do have a peep. Positive temps across Greenland and then the Föhn effect plumping up temps over Iceland as the 'warm' northerly heads south to Scotland.

Yup! a WARM Northerly!!!

Edited November 17, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[songster]

...'rouge' polar outbreaks...

Are they the ones that give Rudolph a red nose?

[VillagePlank]

A nippy winter on the way according to the Express

http://www.express.c...00-years-on-way

*sigh*

Edited November 17, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[4wd]

... the 'fringe' forecasters are gambling on the 'Arctic outbreaks' associated with low sea ice destabilisation of the northern hemisphere circulation patterns. We have seen these 'rouge' polar outbreaks bringing heavy snow/low temps around the northern hemisphere since at least 02' with many stadiums/shopping centres collapsing under the weight of snow.

Positive temps across Greenland and then the Föhn effect plumping up temps over Iceland as the 'warm' northerly heads south to Scotland.

Yup! a WARM Northerly!!!

Basically AGW must have a hand in a cold spell which hasn't happened yet - and if it doesn't happen as per predictions, a failed cold spell is due to AGW too.

Good to get all possible retaliations in first.

[laserguy]

Basically AGW must have a hand in a cold spell which hasn't happened yet - and if it doesn't happen as per predictions, a failed cold spell is due to AGW too.

Good to get all possible retaliations in first.

'Tis good to have a contingency plan / hedge one's bets / cover all bases. As many terms for this sorta thing as climate change / global warming / global weirding.

[Polar Maritime]

http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2012/s3636103.htm

MARK COLVIN: One of the economic world's most conservative agencies has joined what it calls an 'unprecedented consensus' among scientists, to warn that climate change is on course or catastrophic levels this century.

The World Bank today issued its assessment of global warming, and it's devastating. The bank president Jim Yong Kim warns that 'time is very, very short' to address a crisis that he believes could see the planet warm by four degrees by the 2060s.

[laserguy]

The World Bank today issued its assessment of global warming, and it's devastating. The bank president Jim Yong Kim warns that 'time is very, very short' to address a crisis that he believes could see the planet warm by four degrees by the 2060s.

The latest of thousands of similar piles of junk which have gone before. And who would care anyway? It's like the FI charts - always just out of reach and never coming closer - just like the end of the rainbow. Besides,most of us will be dead by then. What do banks and their presidents know,anyway? One day I'll switch on the teeveee and the weatherguy will be giving me the exchange rates.

[Methuselah]

The latest of thousands of similar piles of junk which have gone before. And who would care anyway? It's like the FI charts - always just out of reach and never coming closer - just like the end of the rainbow. Besides,most of us will be dead by then. What do banks and their presidents know,anyway? One day I'll switch on the teeveee and the weatherguy will be giving me the exchange rates.

Aye Barry...The World Bank can't even make worthwhile predictions about the things it's meant to know something about. So how can anyone possibly expect to suddenly be able to predict climate!

[4wd]

Quite a statement when if CO2 were double present levels the expected temperature rise is about 1.1C without no feedbacks either way.