In The News

[keithlucky]

More evidence again than GW isen"t occuring temps steady for the last 15 yrs .With the UK met NASA JIM hansen IPPC"S Ranjara Panchuris that World temps are at a stanstill for 2 decades.

[Methuselah]

More evidence again than GW isen"t occuring temps steady for the last 15 yrs .With the UK met NASA JIM hansen IPPC"S Ranjara Panchuris that World temps are at a stanstill for 2 decades.

I bet that if those figures were reversed, the usual suspects would claim that the globe is cooling??

[BornFromTheVoid]

More evidence again than GW isen"t occuring temps steady for the last 15 yrs .With the UK met NASA JIM hansen IPPC"S Ranjara Panchuris that World temps are at a stanstill for 2 decades.

Quite impressive I must say.

1997 was at the peak of a +ve PDO, towards the end of a period of high solar activity and a had a very strong El Nino.

2012 was experiencing one of the quietest solar cycles in the last few hundred year, was well into a -ve PDO and was a borderline La Nina year.

Yet 2012 still beat 1997 by almost a tenth of a degree!

Edited March 2, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[knocker]

Does this show it?

[knocker]

You could also falsely represent it by taking the year following El Chichon and say warming is increasing or any other volcanic eruption.

Edited March 2, 2013 by knocker

[laserguy]

Let's see what this summer brings us?

Yes,let's. Care to peer into your crystal ball GW and let us know in advance,or will it be a case of waiting for some random but noteworthy weather event before you declare it to have been caused by us?

[knocker]

More evidence again than GW isen"t occuring temps steady for the last 15 yrs .With the UK met NASA JIM hansen IPPC"S Ranjara Panchuris that World temps are at a stanstill for 2 decades.

Not sure why you choose to ignore this.

Now I wonder why temps haven't risen as fast as expected in the last few years?

Volcanic aerosols, not pollutants, tamped down recent Earth warming, says CU-Boulder study

Quote

A team led by the University of Colorado Boulder looking for clues about why Earth did not warm as much as scientists expected between 2000 and 2010 now thinks the culprits are hiding in plain sight -- dozens of volcanoes spewing sulfur dioxide.

The study results essentially exonerate Asia, including India and China, two countries that are estimated to have increased their industrial sulfur dioxide emissions by about 60 percent from 2000 to 2010 through coal burning, said lead study author Ryan Neely, who led the research as part of his CU-Boulder doctoral thesis. Small amounts of sulfur dioxide emissions from Earth's surface eventually rise 12 to 20 miles into the stratospheric aerosol layer of the atmosphere, where chemical reactions create sulfuric acid and water particles that reflect sunlight back to space, cooling the planet.

Neely said previous observations suggest that increases in stratospheric aerosols since 2000 have counterbalanced as much as 25 percent of the warming scientists blame on human greenhouse gas emissions. "This new study indicates it is emissions from small to moderate volcanoes that have been slowing the warming of the planet," said Neely, a researcher at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, a joint venture of CU-Boulder and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

http://www.eurekaler...a-van030113.php

Edited March 2, 2013 by knocker

[Devonian]

Yes,let's. Care to peer into your crystal ball GW and let us know in advance,or will it be a case of waiting for some random but noteworthy weather event before you declare it to have been caused by us?

But, LG, aren't YOU the one declaring, viz 'random'. How do you know there will be such an event, and more to the point, how (beyond assertion) do you know such an event would be random?

[BornFromTheVoid]

I bet that if those figures were reversed, the usual suspects would claim that the globe is cooling??

You only have to look at Antarctica. Statistically insignificant growth in sea ice equates to the sceptic headline:

ANTARCTIC SEA ICE: IS IT GOING TO TAKE OVER THE PLANET?

While a statistically insignificant increase in global temperatures leads to the headline:

NO GLOBAL WARMING FOR 15 YEARS

People actually believe and respect these goons

[laserguy]

. How do you know there will be such an event, and more to the point, how (beyond assertion) do you know such an event would be random?

Y'see? This is what 'we' are up against. I've no idea that there'll be such an event - but as with any summer there likely will be. Or maybe not. But GW seems pretty sure - and is ready and waiting just in case, with some arcane connection to AGW to explain it. Why dontcha ask him?

[Methuselah]

I know it's a blog, but: http://scienceblogs.com/denialism/2013/02/26/what-happens-when-you-study-conspiracy-theories-the-conspiracy-theorists-make-up-conspiracy-theories-about-you/

[Devonian]

Y'see? This is what 'we' are up against. I've no idea that there'll be such an event - but as with any summer there likely will be. Or maybe not. But GW seems pretty sure - and is ready and waiting just in case, with some arcane connection to AGW to explain it. Why dontcha ask him?

Because I'm asking you how do you know it would be a random event?

[knocker]

Y'see? This is what 'we' are up against. I've no idea that there'll be such an event - but as with any summer there likely will be. Or maybe not. But GW seems pretty sure - and is ready and waiting just in case, with some arcane connection to AGW to explain it. Why dontcha ask him?

Why use the word arcane? I thought we had recently had an example.

Hurricane Sandy

According to NCAR senior climatologist Kevin E. Trenberth, "The answer to the oft-asked question of whether an event is caused by climate change is that it is the wrong question. All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be. Although NOAA meteorologist Martin Hoerling attributes of Sandy to "little more than the coincidental alignment of a tropical storm with an extratropical storm", Trenberth illustrates by pointing out that steroids in a baseball player's system do not cause home runs all by themselves but do make home runs more likely. Trenberth does agree that the storm was caused by "natural variability" but adds that it was "enhanced by global warming". One factor contributing to the storm's strength was abnormally warm sea surface temperatures offshore the East Coast of the United States, to which global climate change had contributed. As the temperature of the atmosphere increases, the capacity to hold water increases, leading to stronger storms and higher rainfall amounts.

As they move north, Atlantic hurricanes typically are forced east and out to sea by the jet stream's prevailing winds. In Sandy's case, this typical pattern was blocked by a ridge of high pressure over Greenland resulting in a negative North Atlant Oscillation, forming a kink in the jet stream, causing it to double back on itself off the East Coast. Sandy was caught up in this northwesterly flow.^[ The blocking pattern over Greenland also stalled an arctic front which combined with the cyclone. Mark Fischetti of Scientific American argued that the jet stream's unusual shape was caused by the melting of Arctic ice. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground said that three studies in 2011 found "that the recent record decline in Arctic sea ice could be responsible, since this heats up the pole, altering the Equator-to-pole temperature difference, forcing the jet stream to slow down, meander, and get stuck in large loops." Trenberth said that while a negative North Atlantic Oscillation and a blocking anticyclone were in place, the null hypothesis remained that this was just the natural variability of weather. Harvard geologist Daniel P. Schrag calls Hurricane Sandy's 13-foot storm surge an example of what will, by mid-century, be the "new norm on the Eastern seaboard".

http://en.wikipedia....Hurricane_Sandy

Edited March 3, 2013 by knocker

[keithlucky]

9c record cold ! http://www.bbc.co.uk...azine-21630309#

[Methuselah]

So the BBC does report on record cold then?

[laserguy]

Because I'm asking you how do you know it would be a random event?

Why would it not be a randon event - didn't we get such things in the days before 'AGW'? You're asking the wrong guy anyway; GW's yer man, but I would like to know before the event what he sees coming,not waiting for something to happen before blaming us. If we get an uneventful year can we take it that our CO2 is taking a break?

[laserguy]

So the BBC does report on record cold then?

Even they must 'get it' sooner or later - most surprising thing about that article is that they didn't employ some 'arcane chicanery' ( ya see what I did there,knocks?) to place the blame on warming.

[Coast]

UK must adapt for weather extremes, says Environment Agency

Britain must become more resilient to both drought and flooding, Environment Agency chairman Chris Smith has said

New figures from the agency show that one in every five days saw flooding in 2012, but one in four days saw drought. Rivers such as the Tyne, Ouse and Tone fell to their lowest and rose to their highest flows since records began, within a four-month period of the year. Lord Smith said urgent action was vital to help "prepare and adapt" many aspects of Britain for such extremes. Meteorologists fear that extremes of weather may increase as global temperatures slowly rise. Met Office analysis has suggested that the UK could experience a severe short-term drought, similar to the drought experienced in 1976, once a decade.

Transferring water

With the population of the water-stressed south-east of England projected to grow by almost a quarter by 2035, Lord Smith argued that the number of smaller reservoirs needed to be increased immediately and that new ways of transferring water from areas where it is plentiful to areas where it is scarce must be established. Lord Smith, whose agency covers England and Wales, insisted the reservoirs would be needed not just by farmers, but also by commercial turf growers, golf clubs, sport stadiums and race courses.

There are currently about 1,700 small-scale storage reservoirs across England and Wales, supplying 30% of total irrigation needs. He also said more homes would need to be protected from flooding. Lord Smith said: "The extremes of weather that we saw last year highlight the urgent need to plan for a changing climate.

"In 2012 we saw environmental damage caused by rivers with significantly reduced flows, hosepipe bans affecting millions and farmers and businesses left unable to take water from rivers. "But we also saw the wettest year on record in England, with around 8,000 homes flooded. Interestingly 2007, which saw some of the most severe flooding in recent memory, also started the year with hosepipe bans. "More of this extreme weather will exacerbate many of the problems that we already deal with including flooding and water scarcity, so taking action today to prepare and adapt homes, businesses, agricultural practices and infrastructure is vital."

Boggy land

He pointed out that modelling suggests that a changing climate could reduce some river flows by up to 80% during the summer in the next 40 years. Part of the UK’s flooding problem is due to previous policies. For decades, farmers were paid to drain boggy land in order to improve it for grazing. This caused water to rush off the fields into rivers, whereas previously it would have been held in the bogs to smooth out the flow into rivers throughout the year.

In addition, many flood plains have been built on

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21651067

[4wd]

Boggy land

He pointed out that modelling suggests that a changing climate could reduce some river flows by up to 80% during the summer in the next 40 years. Part of the UK’s flooding problem is due to previous policies. For decades, farmers were paid to drain boggy land in order to improve it for grazing. This caused water to rush off the fields into rivers, whereas previously it would have been held in the bogs to smooth out the flow into rivers throughout the year.

This is a muddled concept which has been pushed lately by Environment Agency.

Trouble is that waterlogged, poorly drained areas have little or no ability to hold [more] water, whereas drier land can soak it up.

Rain doesn't rush straight into drains, it percolates through the soil profile over a period of days.

[Gray-Wolf]

I have now been in the Valley bottom for 12 months and so see the Calder, where it passes through Mytholmroyd on a daily basis. It would appear that a consequence of last years flood events has lead to the river here entering an erosional phase? i do not know whether this is a change in the 'load' of the river or an alteration to it's flow (clearer tributaries pushing water in faster) or both. What I do know is the 'land' (grass and veg covered) over the cobbled channel margins have been stripped clear in sections.

To me this is a worry. It surely either signals a lowering of the seaward side or an increase in flow from the source side and the seaward side surely isn't sinking!

As for this next 12 months of weather? Well, I'm no forecaster but I strongly suspect that last years shocking sea ice low will have impact this year? Already the thin ,young ice is in disarray suggesting a more rapid melt out of the bulk of the ice this summer. This means longer under sun for the areas seeing open water and so more energy in the climate system. The open coastal strips will mean a faster warming of the land beyond and so a lessening (again) of the temp/pressure Grad from pole to Equator hinting at another summer of errant Jet behaviour.

I am hoping that the jet pattern is even more exaggerated than of late giving higher peaks/lower troughs and a shorter amplitude pulling the trough that has blighted us for 6 summers back into the Atlantic and allowing continental heat across the north Sea to us? I'd love to see a few 'blocked periods' with high temps but worry that if this comes from Germany then we will have to 'sweat it out' with very high humidity making the heat even more oppressive? (and good for storms???)

I think we have seen the best of our 'snow' when the h.p. has been overpowered by the Atlantic and if we see the same again I'd expect very high energy storms with the prospect of large hail ,flash floods and funnel clouds so I'm watching out for extreme storms too!

I would hate to spend another summer with the Jet troughed south of us and an endless stream of depressions circling overhead whilst they dump their cargo of rain (blocked from going east by the continental high.....and it's sunshine and high temps!!!)

So yes L.G. I do expect another 'strange year' for the northern hemisphere with folk seeing yet more "1 in 100yr" events (even if they had similar last year) to add to our growing record of extremes.

How can I suggest such? Well unlike predicting day by day weather (impossible?) I can see that there will, once again, be an extra wadge of energy in the climate system. I can see the potential for high temps inside the Arctic circle again (relatively high temps that is) and so upper atmosphere flows reflecting this. High energy, sluggish Jet = ?

Edited March 4, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[Methuselah]

Even they must 'get it' sooner or later - most surprising thing about that article is that they didn't employ some 'arcane chicanery' ( ya see what I did there,knocks?) to place the blame on warming.

Or it could be - perish the thought - that there really haven't been all that many record-cold events happening?

How do you, as a sceptic, explain the poleward migration of plant and animal species, barrie?

[cerneman]

Walrus seen on beach on Orkney Isles, alive and well,,,,,,,,,,,,Hmmm

Edited March 4, 2013 by cerneman

[Coast]

Historic town walls crumbling 'because of climate change'

For centuries they stood firm against marauding Welsh invaders but now the historic walls of Ludlow are said to be under threat from a new enemy – climate change.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/9907054/Historic-town-walls-crumbling-because-of-climate-change.html

[Gray-Wolf]

More evidence again than GW isen"t occuring temps steady for the last 15 yrs .With the UK met NASA JIM hansen IPPC"S Ranjara Panchuris that World temps are at a stanstill for 2 decades.

http://www.colorado....warming-says-cu

Oh dear!

We have Nasa telling us that particulate pollution could be robbing as much as 50% of the warming we should be seeing and now the above ten year study showing the impacts of our frequently popping Volcanoes (fairly frquent of late esp. around the ring of fire?) taking up as much as 25% of the warming whilst sat deep in PDO-ve with low solar activity and a run of la Ninas and still temps rise???

The question has to be how are our current changes able to overcome all of the above?

What does it suggest about the 'models' and their predictions??? To me it appears that , in reality, the models are going to appear quite conservative once the negative factors shake out? Imagine what type of warming we will experience in a set of 'neutral' forcings never mind when they swing positive to augment warming???

It's like sitting under a parasol and saying "it's not that hot today is it?".

I do believe that 'Nature' is also starting to respond to the warming with the rapid ice losses we have seen over this 'dimmed' period. Even though tempered by negative forcings I do believe we will see temps rising more rapidly over the coming decades, due to the albedo flip forcings (before we lose our particulate pollution sunscreen and the volcanic areosols are rained out), and more attention will start being given to why we did not foresee such an upturn in the rate of warming. The next few years will seal the fate of the Permafrosts and with it all hope of keeping GHG levels down (or reducing them to safe levels). The folk who currently pooh,pooh climate change will have a lot of explaining to do to their peers as the coming years unfold (I Believe).

Edited March 4, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[Gowon]

http://www.telegraph...ate-change.html

I like what this comment best -

Obviously this particular political operator has noticed that the best way to quickly get oodles of taxpayers' dosh diverted your way is by invoking the holy scriptures of the Church of the Immaculate Global Warming BS. Nice one.

Actually the comments are hilarious