In The News

[Gray-Wolf]

So we may not have warm ocean currents to thank for our 'warm' winters?

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=new-simulations-question-gulf-stream-role-tempering-europes-winters&page=4

It appears that fears for us falling into a 'little ice age' should the N.A.D. stop are wrong (what a surprise) and we should look more to jet positioning (again , what a surprise) for our mild (or not) winters.

If sea ice loss is messing with our jet then we may well see a change to our climate as the planet warms (like cool soaked summers becoming the norm) even with an unfailing current flowing off our shores!

[laserguy]

(like cool soaked summers becoming the norm)

Whatever the cause, I'll have some of that.

[pottyprof]

Second series in a row that the Beeb have ended up editing a wildlife production. Is it disputable or is the BBC just trying to please everyone?

BBC On Back Foot Over David Attenborough Africa Climate Change Claim

The BBC re-edited an episode of Sir David Attenborough's Africa series to remove a disputed claim over climate change.

In the episode, broadcast on Wednesday, Sir David told viewers "Some parts of the continent have become 3.5C hotter in the past 20 years", but the BBC has since admitted that is "disputable".

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/02/11/bbc-david-attenborough-africa-climate-change_n_2663419.html?icid=maing-grid7%7Cuk%7Cdl1%7Csec3_lnk2%26pLid%3D153769

[4wd]

I think it was life on earth if you listened closely to the audio various climate change propaganda snippets had clearly been inserted later.

And the US plus several other countries considered it such biased drivel they didn't broadcast the final episode.

They are still at it apparently.

I no ;longer watch Attenborough. He is an activist campaigner and everything he does is contaminated.

[Methuselah]

Maybe the Yanks will get G. W. Shrub to do the next one?

[knocker]

On the other hand.

Mapping the future of climate change in Africa

Researchers at the University of Texas at Austin and partner universities create tools to help vulnerable populations adapt to climate change and political instability

Our planet's changing climate is devastating communities in Africa through droughts, floods and myriad other disasters.

Using detailed regional climate models and geographic information systems, researchers with the Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS) program developed an online mapping tool that analyzes how climate and other forces interact to threaten the security of African communities.

The program was piloted by the Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law at The University of Texas at Austin in 2009 after receiving a $7.6 million five-year grant from the Minerva Initiative with the Department of Defense, according to Francis J. Gavin, professor of international affairs and director of the Strauss Center.

http://Our planet...the Strauss Center.

Edited February 11, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

A new Harvard report probes security risks of extreme weather and climate change

Scientists identify security risks from climate change, and recommend investments in monitoring and forecasting to prepare for growing threats

http://environment.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/climate_extremes_report_2012-12-04.pdf

[pottyprof]

The program was piloted by the Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law at The University of Texas at Austin in 2009 after receiving a $7.6 million five-year grant from the Minerva Initiative with the Department of Defense, according to Francis J. Gavin, professor of international affairs and director of the Strauss Center.

http://Our planet......Strauss Center.

That link's not working knocker.....

[knocker]

Sorry about that PP'

An alternative.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-08/uota-mtf080212.php

Edited February 11, 2013 by knocker

[laserguy]

I no ;longer watch Attenborough. He is an activist campaigner and everything he does is contaminated.

Didn't Bellamy get the push for politely saying that AGW is cobblers?

[Methuselah]

Didn't Bellamy get the push for politely saying that AGW is cobblers?

Are you sure that wasn't: AGW get the push for saying Bellamy is cobblers?

[knocker]

Have they got this sorted at last?

Mainz scientists confirm original tetrahedral model of the molecular structure of water

Resolution of controversy about structure of liquid water

Researchers at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU) have confirmed the original model of the molecular structure of water and have thus made it possible to resolve a long-standing scientific controversy about the structure of liquid water. The tetrahedral model was first postulated nearly 100 years ago and it assumes that every water molecule forms a so-called hydrogen bond with four adjacent molecules. This concept was almost toppled in 2004 when an international research group announced that it had experimentally established that water molecules form bonds only with two other molecules. "The quality of the results was excellent but they merely represent a snapshot of the situation," explained Professor Dr. Thomas Kühne. He has demonstrated the fallacy of the 'double bonding' theory using computer simulations based on new types of combinations of two computational methods recently developed by his group.

http://www.uni-mainz.de/presse/16217_ENG_HTML.php

[knocker]

Carbon sponge could soak up coal emissions

Emissions from coal power stations could be drastically reduced by a new, energy-efficient material that adsorbs large amounts of carbon dioxide, then releases it when exposed to sunlight.

In a study published today in Angewandte Chemie, Monash University and CSIRO scientists for the first time discovered a photosensitive metal organic framework (MOF) - a class of materials known for their exceptional capacity to store gases. This has created a powerful and cost-effective new tool to capture and store, or potentially recycle, carbon dioxide.

By utilising sunlight to release the stored carbon, the new material overcomes the problems of expense and inefficiency associated with current, energy-intensive methods of carbon capture. Current technologies use liquid capture materials that are then heated in a prolonged process to release the carbon dioxide for storage.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-02/mu-csc021113.php

[keithlucky]

http://blogs.news.co...heraldsun/C955/

[knocker]

This is becoming a bit like a broken record.

Scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) say 2012 was the ninth warmest year since 1880, continuing a long-term trend of rising global temperatures. The ten warmest years in the 132-year record have all occurred since 1998. The last year that was cooler than average was 1976.

The map at the top depicts temperature anomalies, or changes, by region in 2012; it does not show absolute temperature. Reds and blues show how much warmer or cooler each area was in 2012 compared to an averaged base period from 1951–1980. For more explanation of how the analysis works, read World of Change: Global Temperatures.

The average temperature in 2012 was about 14.6 degrees Celsius (58.3 degrees Fahrenheit), which is 0.55°C (1.0°F) warmer than the mid-20th century base period. The average global temperature has increased 0.8°C (1.4°F) since 1880, and most of that change has occurred in the past four decades.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=80167

[knocker]

http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/press/press_releases/press_release.php?id=2057

[keithlucky]

Read here nothing new is happening http://www.co2scienc...northsweden.php

[knocker]

Still another section of the blog.

http://www.co2scienc...obalwarming.php

Edited February 14, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

The discussion was Ice Ages in In Our Time yesterday. I only caught snatches so can't comment but it can heard here if anyone is interested.

Melvyn Bragg and his guests discuss ice ages, periods when a reduction in the surface temperature of the Earth has resulted in ice sheets at the Poles. Although the term 'ice age' is commonly associated with prehistoric eras when much of northern Europe was covered in ice, we are in fact currently in an ice age which began up to 40 million years ago. Geological evidence indicates that there have been several in the Earth's history, although their precise cause is not known. Ice ages have had profound effects on the geography and biology of our planet.

With:

Jane Francis

Professor of Paleoclimatology at the University of Leeds

Richard Corfield

Visiting Research Fellow in the Department of Earth Sciences at Oxford University

Carrie Lear

Senior Lecturer in Palaeoceanography at Cardiff University.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01qjj99

[jonboy]

http://www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/Papers/WBR9_Walker.pdf

The above is a link to a paper by an actuary Brett Walker written in Feb 2012. The intent of the paper was to highlight to actuaries the many influnces on earth that may influence major events that insurers should be taking account off.

It covers many area's of discussion on hear from CO2 to Ozone to planetory influences the sun's desent into a grand minimum likely increase in volcanic and earthquake activity and how they are interlinked.

I personally find it a fascinating read

Enjoy

[knocker]

Statistics help clear fog for better climate change picture

UNIVERSITY PARK, PA. -- Statistics is an important tool in sorting through information on how human activities are affecting the climate system, as well as how climate change affects natural and human systems, according to a Penn State statistician.

"One key aspect of climate change is risk," said Murali Haran, associate professor of statistics. "Without the language of statistics and probability, you can't talk about risk."

As more research is conducted and more data are gathered, Haran said that scientists are gaining a better understanding of current and future climate conditions, as well as predicting the risk of the dramatic and costly affects of this change.

"We have a better understanding of the climate now than we have ever had before," said Haran. "With greater availability of data and more sophisticated climate models, our knowledge continues to increase."

However, there is still more work to do and more data to collect, the researcher added.

Understanding the global climate and how it can change remains a difficult task, according to Haran, who reports on his research today (Feb. 15) at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Boston.

"We still don't know everything there is to know about the climate," Haran said. "Also, all models, which are by their very nature simplified representations of extremely complex physical systems, are still only approximations to the true climate system. Hence it is vitally important to account for our uncertainties about the system -- what we know and what we don't know. Statisticians can provide the language and methods to quantify these uncertainties in a rigorous fashion."

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-02/ps-shc021413.php

[Methuselah]

It is of course an uphill struggle... http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/climate-change-scepticism

[knocker]

I found this quite interesting.

For monarchs to fly north, first they've got to chill

Monarch butterflies are well known for their ability to fly 2,000 miles south from North America to Mexico each fall and back again in the spring. Now, researchers reporting in Current Biology, a Cell Press publication, on February 21 have evidence to show that the butterflies would just keep on heading south if it weren't for the chilly weather.

The findings help to explain why the butterflies spend the winter on frosty mountaintops. They also imply that global climate change could profoundly influence the monarchs' migrations, the researchers say.

"The monarchs need the thermal microenvironment at the overwintering sites for the migration cycle to persist," said Steven Reppert of the University of Massachusetts Medical School. "Without that thermal stimulus, the annual migration cycle would be broken and we will have lost one of the most intriguing biological phenomena in the natural world."

Earlier work by Reppert's team found that monarchs rely on an internal compass and skylight cues to guide them in their long-distance travels south. Patrick Guerra and Reppert have now found that the butterflies rely on the same system for their return flight north.

They next wondered what triggers the switch in the butterflies' overall direction. To find out, they captured fall migrants at the start of their migration, subjecting them in the laboratory to the same changes in temperature and light that they would experience in the mountains of Mexico. Remarkably, after 24 days of such treatment, the butterflies headed north upon release.

Further study confirmed that the switch in flight direction depended only on the experience of cold, not on changes in day length. They also confirmed that butterflies brought in and protected from the cold kept right on flying south.

Given these discoveries and the recent availability of genetic and genomic tools for monarchs, Reppert said his team is now poised to understand much more about the biological processes underlying the iconic migration. And that could make all the difference for the monarchs' future.

"This increased understanding will help us protect the migration," Reppert said.

###

Current Biology, Guerra et al.: "Coldness Triggers Northward Flight in Re-migrant Monarch Butterflies."

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-02/cp-fmt021313.php

[4wd]

Energy from coal without burning or emissions

http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/looping203.htm

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=siberian-caves-reveal-permafrost-thaw

Thought I'd better stick this in here too!

Appears to imply that a less than 1.5c warming is the only 'safe' course of action for the planet?

Anyone think we'll stay below 1.5c?