In The News

[Gray-Wolf]

[be cause]

lets not get this thread closed down for silliness again please

[be cause]

when I was a kid I was wishing for winter to last forever .. the cold icy bits anyway .. next thing I knew 'an Ice Age is coming ' was the news .. and I

felt responsible because the wisest man to walk this world taught 'as ye believe so shall it be onto you ...'

My guilt caused me to start the search for ways to warm the world again .. next thing I knew it was Global Warming in the news and an even more

active imagination was

required .. and imaginations unite to create that which we experience ...

Not wanting the coasts to drown (maybe one exception).. I wondered what happens when the Polar Sea Ice all melts? (north pole only ) and this

last wee while I find I

am a spectator at the party !

So I am here to learn , with an open mind and thank everyone who brings information and knowledge whatever your opinion might be .. as we

watch great changes

take place in weather patterns and climate ..

Edited March 7, 2013 by be cause

[BornFromTheVoid]

when I was a kid I was wishing for winter to last forever .. the cold icy bits anyway .. next thing I knew 'an Ice Age is coming ' was the news .. and I

felt responsible because the wisest man to walk this world taught 'as ye believe so shall it be onto you ...'

My guilt caused me to start the search for ways to warm the world again .. next thing I knew it was Global Warming in the news and an even more

active imagination was

required .. and imaginations unite to create that which we experience ...

Not wanting the coasts to drown (maybe one exception).. I wondered what happens when the Polar Sea Ice all melts? (north pole only ) and this

last wee while I find I

am a spectator at the party !

So I am here to learn , with an open mind and thank everyone who brings information and knowledge whatever your opinion might be .. as we

watch great changes

take place in weather patterns and climate ..

Just so you're aware, the vast majority of climate predictions in the 70s were for warming, and most of those due to CO2. It was the media that latched onto the small few papers that suggested cooling and blew the whole idea out of proportion

From the skepticalscience post on the subject:

The fact is that around 1970 there were 6 times as many scientists predicting a warming rather than a cooling planet. Today, with 30+years more data to analyse, we've reached a clear scientific consensus: 97% of working climate scientists agree with the view that human beings are causing global warming.

The rest is here http://www.skeptical...ns-in-1970s.htm

[be cause]

my faith in Newtonian and Einsteinian science was lost in the lab in 1980 when my belief system (by then a happy athiest ) was demonstrably affecting my results and I was told I could not pursue this as it was not 'science' Demonstrably affecting your results is a fundamental of Quantum physics .. So even 97% of scientists saying anything is true causes me to look elsewhere for my truth

the degree course I walked out of was Earth and Life studies .. i was and am a seeker of greater truths than Al Gore rythms..

Just so you're aware, the vast majority of climate predictions in the 70s were for warming, and most of those due to CO2. It was the media that latched onto the small few papers that suggested cooling and blew the whole idea out of proportion

From the skepticalscience post on the subject:

The rest is here http://www.skeptical...ns-in-1970s.htm

[BornFromTheVoid]

my faith in Newtonian and Einsteinian science was lost in the lab in 1980 when my belief system (by then a happy athiest ) was demonstrably affecting my results and I was told I could not pursue this as it was not 'science' Demonstrably affecting your results is a fundamental of Quantum physics .. So even 97% of scientists saying anything is true causes me to look elsewhere for my truth

the degree course I walked out of was Earth and Life studies .. i was and am a seeker of greater truths than Al Gore rythms..

Not sure what Al Gore has to do with this, but whatever floats your boat!

[pottyprof]

explain the observed wholesale poleward-migration of flora and fauna...

They must have heard about our benefits system?.....

[Methuselah]

And now for the Saturation Fallacy... http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/papers/PhysTodayRT2011.pdf

[4wd]

Just so you're aware, the vast majority of climate predictions in the 70s were for warming, and most of those due to CO2. It was the media that latched onto the small few papers that suggested cooling and blew the whole idea out of proportion

From the skepticalscience post on the subject:

The rest is here http://www.skeptical...ns-in-1970s.htm

Skeptical Science is not a credible source though.

It was a widely held view not something postulated by a few cranks.

1970 – Colder Winters Held Dawn of New Ice Age – Scientists See Ice Age In the Future(The Washington Post, January 11, 1970)

1970 – Is Mankind Manufacturing a New Ice Age for Itself? (L.A. Times, January 15, 1970)

1970 – New Ice Age May Descend On Man (Sumter Daily Item, January 26, 1970)

1970 – Pollution Prospect A Chilling One (Owosso Argus-Press, January 26, 1970)

1970 – Pollution’s 2-way ‘Freeze’ On Society (Middlesboro Daily News, January 28, 1970)

1970 – Cold Facts About Pollution (The Southeast Missourian, January 29, 1970)

1970 – Pollution Could Cause Ice Age, Agency Reports (St. Petersburg Times, March 4, 1970)

1970 – Pollution Called Ice Age Threat (St. Petersburg Times, June 26, 1970)

1970 – Dirt Will .Bring New Ice Age (The Sydney Morning Herald, October 19, 1970)

1971 – Ice Age Refugee Dies Underground (The Montreal Gazette, Febuary 17, 1971)

1971 – U.S. Scientist Sees New Ice Age Coming (The Washington Post, July 9, 1971)

1971 – Ice Age Around the Corner (Chicago Tribune, July 10, 1971)

1971 – New Ice Age Coming – It’s Already Getting Colder (L.A. Times, October 24, 1971)

1971 – Another Ice Age? Pollution Blocking Sunlight (The Day, November 1, 1971)

1971 – Air Pollution Could Bring An Ice Age (Harlan Daily Enterprise, November 4, 1971)

1972 – Air pollution may cause ice age (Free-Lance Star, February 3, 1972)

1972 – Scientist Says New ice Age Coming (The Ledger, February 13, 1972)

1972 – Scientist predicts new ice age (Free-Lance Star, September 11, 1972)

1972 – British expert on Climate Change says Says New Ice Age Creeping Over Northern Hemisphere (Lewiston Evening Journal, September 11, 1972)

1972 – Climate Seen Cooling For Return Of Ice Age (Portsmouth Times, ‎September 11, 1972‎)

1972 – New Ice Age Slipping Over North (Press-Courier, September 11, 1972)

1972 – Ice Age Begins A New Assault In North (The Age, September 12, 1972)

1972 – Weather To Get Colder (Montreal Gazette, ‎September 12, 1972‎)

1972 – British climate expert predicts new Ice Age (The Christian Science Monitor, September 23, 1972)

1972 – Scientist Sees Chilling Signs of New Ice Age (L.A. Times, September 24, 1972)

1972 – Science: Another Ice Age? (Time Magazine, November 13, 1972)

1973 – The Ice Age Cometh (The Saturday Review, March 24, 1973)

1973 – Weather-watchers think another ice age may be on the way (The Christian Science Monitor, December 11, 1973)

1974 – New evidence indicates ice age here (Eugene Register-Guard, May 29, 1974)

1974 – Another Ice Age? (Time Magazine, June 24, 1974)

1974 – 2 Scientists Think ‘Little’ Ice Age Near (The Hartford Courant, August 11, 1974)

1974 – Ice Age, worse food crisis seen (The Chicago Tribune, October 30, 1974)

1974 – Believes Pollution Could Bring On Ice Age(Ludington Daily News, December 4, 1974)

1974 – Pollution Could Spur Ice Age, Nasa Says (Beaver Country Times, ‎December 4, 1974‎)

1974 – Air Pollution May Trigger Ice Age, Scientists Feel (The Telegraph, ‎December 5, 1974‎)

1974 – More Air Pollution Could Trigger Ice Age Disaster (Daily Sentinel – ‎December 5, 1974‎)

1974 – Scientists Fear Smog Could Cause Ice Age (Milwaukee Journal, December 5, 1974)

1975 – Climate Changes Called Ominous (The New York Times, January 19, 1975)

1975 – Climate Change: Chilling Possibilities (Science News, March 1, 1975)

1975 – B-r-r-r-r: New Ice Age on way soon? (The Chicago Tribune, March 2, 1975)

1975 – Cooling Trends Arouse Fear That New Ice Age Coming (Eugene Register-Guard, ‎March 2, 1975‎)

1975 – Is Another Ice Age Due? Arctic Ice Expands In Last Decade (Youngstown Vindicator – ‎March 2, 1975‎)

1975 – Is Earth Headed For Another Ice Age? (Reading Eagle, March 2, 1975)

1975 – New Ice Age Dawning? Significant Shift In Climate Seen (Times Daily, ‎March 2, 1975‎)

1975 – There’s Troublesome Weather Ahead (Tri City Herald, ‎March 2, 1975‎)

1975 – Is Earth Doomed To Live Through Another Ice Age? (The Robesonian, ‎March 3, 1975‎)

1975 – The Ice Age cometh: the system that controls our climate (The Chicago Tribune, April 13, 1975)

1975 – The Cooling World (Newsweek, April 28, 1975)

1975 – Scientists Ask Why World Climate Is Changing; Major Cooling May Be Ahead (PDF) (The New York Times, May 21, 1975)

1975 – In the Grip of a New Ice Age? (International Wildlife, July-August, 1975)

1975 – Oil Spill Could Cause New Ice Age (Milwaukee Journal, December 11, 1975)

1976 – The Cooling: Has the Next Ice Age Already Begun? [book] (Lowell Ponte, 1976)

1977 – Blizzard – What Happens if it Doesn’t Stop? [book] (George Stone, 1977)

1977 – The Weather Conspiracy: The Coming of the New Ice Age [book] (The Impact Team, 1977)

1976 – Worrisome CIA Report; Even U.S. Farms May be Hit by Cooling Trend (U.S. News & World Report, May 31, 1976)

1977 – The Big Freeze (Time Magazine, January 31, 1977)

1977 – We Will Freeze in the Dark (Capital Cities Communications Documentary, Host: Nancy Dickerson, April 12, 1977)

1978 – The New Ice Age [book] (Henry Gilfond, 1978)

1978 – Little Ice Age: Severe winters and cool summers ahead (Calgary Herald, January 10, 1978)

1978 – Winters Will Get Colder, ‘we’re Entering Little Ice Age’ (Ellensburg Daily Record, January 10, 1978)

1978 – Geologist Says Winters Getting Colder (Middlesboro Daily News, January 16, 1978)

1978 – It’s Going To Get Colder (Boca Raton News, ‎January 17, 1978‎)

1978 – Believe new ice age is coming (The Bryan Times, March 31, 1978)

1978 – The Coming Ice Age (In Search Of TV Show, Season 2, Episode 23, Host: Leonard Nimoy, May 1978)

1978 – An Ice Age Is Coming Weather Expert Fears (Milwaukee Sentinel, November 17, 1978)

1979 – A Choice of Catastrophes – The Disasters That Threaten Our World [book] (Isaac Asimov, 1979)

1979 – Get Ready to Freeze (Spokane Daily Chronicle, October 12, 1979)

1979 – New ice age almost upon us? (The Christian Science Monitor, November 14, 1979)

[4wd]

OK those are News stories but most of them reference scientific studies.

[songster]

Exercise: Do the same for the last few years looking for stories on the MMR/autism nonsense, or HIV/AIDS denial. You'd have orders of magnitude more.

[Methuselah]

OK those are News stories but most of them reference scientific studies.

Doesn't that make sense though, 4? If the underlying science is better understood, many of the sillier stories (both doom-mongering and denialist) can be better recognized as the nonsense they often are?

[Gray-Wolf]

The saddest part of the 'ice age' issue is that the studies on orbital forcings were correct and we indeed should have been 'cooling' (and were for a thousand years across the north until the turn of the 1900's when temps unexpectedly 'flipped').

If anything should have wised folk up to the power of our meddlings it surely is the switching off of an ice age???

When I hear folk banging on about 'Missing Heat' I have to wonder at what they were imagining? Not only have we stopped the northern cooling but we have raised the temp and melted the polar ice.....all in a time when it should be thickening to another cold max.

Ah well! I suppose this thread is set to become as bust as the Arctic melt season one as the 'weird weather' stories start to amass once again?

[BornFromTheVoid]

OK those are News stories but most of them reference scientific studies.

Thanks for proving my point.

Can I presume those links were all found by you? Or did you copy and paste it from a sceptic source, like an "Internet Bot will seek out climate related stories and reply with stock phrases in support or to debunk."?

[knocker]

Greedy Lying laminate floors – Opening This Weekend

March 8, 2013

Climate Denial Crock of The week.

In an enormous leap forward, new analyses of temperature records for the last 11000 years have now been published.

Don’t look for the climate denial blogosphere to learn anything from new science. Expect instead a newly focused attack on the facts, – trolls will have to bone up – and a new buzzword.

The older temperature graphs took in only the past 1000 or 2000 years, and were recognizable for the pronounced upward swing at the end. The new, longer graphs include a hump that peaked 9500 years ago, when the planet’s axial tilt was most extreme toward the sun, and have declined slowy until the past century, where we see a dramatic spike.

Less like a Hockey stick, said one scientist. More like a Ski Jump. With a brick wall at the end.

http://climatecrocks.com/

Edited March 8, 2013 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

Again , as i said earlier in the year, folk who deny the impacts today will tend to drag up an analogue (to show that 'such things happen) without the context? Before too long the usual folk will be parading that "at least we're not warmest" without showing the context of the 'warm period' (glacial max forcing) nor how a descent into min has been overturned without and orbital forcing change.

Why play games with stats when something so unique is happening?

So let's have it straight. We're not on a rapid warm-up after a glaciation anymore, we are in a cool-down from that 'peak warming' so why do we find ourselves warming at all? On the smaller timescale we are in a period of PDO-ve forcings with both volcanic and human produced particulate 'dimming' (impacting TSI at the surface) so why are our current temps still top ten year on year?

Edited March 9, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

After Anthony Watts produced this graph with the claim of "Sure looks like a pause to me"

Skeptical science have produced this graph

I think people can make their own minds up about who's trying to trick and mislead here.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A wonderful video. Science vs Feelies. The video doesn't just attack "feelies" on one side of the debate either.

[4wd]

After Anthony Watts produced this graph with the claim of "Sure looks like a pause to me"

Skeptical science have produced this graph

I think people can make their own minds up about who's trying to trick and mislead here.

They're both playing with stats, there has been no significant change over the last 15 years at least.

I'm not sure why SKS and others seem to have difficulty with this concept.

Sure you can draw a line through a longer time frame and claim it is still getting warmer when it's not, but there has still been something of a pause for 15 years and even the Met Office said much the same thing.

[BornFromTheVoid]

They're both playing with stats, there has been no significant change over the last 15 years at least.

I'm not sure why SKS and others seem to have difficulty with this concept.

Sure you can draw a line through a longer time frame and claim it is still getting warmer when it's not, but there has still been something of a pause for 15 years and even the Met Office said much the same thing.

One is creating a linear trend line, which I suppose in a way you can call "playing with stats", and shows the trend is positive.

The other just made up a line, likely on MS paint, which has nothing to do with stats, to show no trend.

Can you see the difference in that?

But leaving that aside, if we take a cherry picked start and end point, that contains no statistically significant trend and call this a "pause", would you agree that Antarctic sea ice has paused?

Edited March 9, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[knocker]

One of the prevailing myths about climate change is that it's a "new" science -- merely the latest fad in an ongoing cycle of scientific doom-saying. You've almost certainly heard or read someone say something like this: "In the 70s, the scientists were all telling us the globe was cooling -- now it's warming. Well which one is it, durn it?" The implication is that climate science is some kind of a trend, and is apt to change course when those fickle scientists find something else to fixate on. This is anything but the case:

It's another fine video from Peter Sinclair, the sharpest climate denier debunker on YouTube. Here, he dredges up a recording from a 1956 radio special on climate science. In the show, they discuss the 1953 paper by the physicist Gilbert Plass, who was one of the first climate science pioneers -- an article about his work appeared in Popular Mechanics that year, called "Growing Blanket of Carbon Dioxide Raises Earth's Temperature".

The science that formed the groundwork for the theory of anthropogenic climate change was already basically established well over 50 years ago. It's no fad, no trend -- climate science is based on some of the most fundamental and agreed-upon scientific truths in history.

http://www.treehugger.com/clean-technology/climate-science-circa-1956-video.html

Climate Science 1956: A Blast from the Past

[pottyprof]

But leaving that aside, if we take a cherry picked start and end point, that contains no statistically significant trend and call this a "pause", would you agree that Antarctic sea ice has paused?

So in another 15 years with no change in temperature, it will still show warming?

Of course the trend is still upwards if you base the data on a rolling average of 30 years as we were still warming up until 15 years ago. Are you arguing against the observed figures from the last 15 years? I've commented on this before in the past that some people like to make sure that we use the 30 year average for temperatures but yet a shorter time frame is okay, provided it fits with their argument, admittedly not very often from yourself.

If I decide to use a 15 year average, It shows a levelling off of the temperatures at around 15 years ago.

Regardless of if all this is down to man or natural, we are still in anomalous state and the planet will want to warm up and become 'normal'.

Just out of interest, does anyone know what the average temperature is for the planet based on the temperature reconstructions for the past few hundred millions of years?

[BornFromTheVoid]

So in another 15 years with no change in temperature, it will still show warming?

Of course the trend is still upwards if you base the data on a rolling average of 30 years as we were still warming up until 15 years ago. Are you arguing against the observed figures from the last 15 years? I've commented on this before in the past that some people like to make sure that we use the 30 year average for temperatures but yet a shorter time frame is okay, provided it fits with their argument, admittedly not very often from yourself.

If I decide to use a 15 year average, It shows a levelling off of the temperatures at around 15 years ago.

Regardless of if all this is down to man or natural, we are still in anomalous state and the planet will want to warm up and become 'normal'.

Just out of interest, does anyone know what the average temperature is for the planet based on the temperature reconstructions for the past few hundred millions of years?

The longer term trend would indeed still show warming, but if we had 30+ years without a statistically significant warming trend then the sensitivity of climate to CO2 would need to be re-evaluated.

But it doesn't matter how strong an actual trend is, if you have a noisy dataset, and decide to examine only a small part of that, it's unlikely you'll find a significant trend. All that means is noise overides the trend on short time scales.

For example, a time that's generally accepted to have shown a strong warming, the mid 70s to late 90s. If you take the 15 years from 1979-1994, you actually get a (non-significant) -ve linear trend! This in a period of apparent rapid warming! But that's what happens when you have a noisy data set.

If we have much more data, why just focus on the last 15 years when we know there are so many sources of noise? I don't deny that global air temperatures have not shown a statistically significant warming in that time, but that's far from saying that global warming/climate change has ceased. Even our La Nina years now are giving top 10 warmest years on record, last years borderline Nina/low solar year produced a global temperature of nearly 0.1C more than the 1997 El Nino/high solar year.

For the amount of CO2 we now have, we are in a slightly anomalous state. We shouldn't have as much ice as we do, which is why it's melting. But the recent continental set up, greenhouse gasses and state of the sun, is ripe for repeated ice ages, not a return to the hotter planetary state (see the video knocker posted from about 3 minutes onward).

Also, the recent study of temperatures over the last 11k years showed we had passed out interglacial peak and were cooling, until the last century or so.

http://kottke.org/13/03/new-graph-shows-unprecedented-global-warming-over-past-11000-years

[knocker]

Dexterity Ice Cap, Baffin Island

At the south end of Dexterity Fjord on the northeast coast of Baffin Island is an unnamed icecap that I will refer to as Dexterity Icecap. Gardner et al (2012). Gardner et al 2011 and Sharp et al (2011) both note that the first decade of the 21st century had the warmest temperatures of the last 50 years, the period of record. identified that the mass loss had doubled in the last decade versus the previous four for Baffin Island.

http://glacierchange.wordpress.com/2013/03/10/dexterity-ice-cap-baffin-island/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[knocker]

You Can Fool Climate Deniers, But You Can’t Fool Mother Nature. Plants Pack up and Move North.

The Arctic is warming faster than many other parts of the planet, and plants are providing some of the clearest signs of the impacts, with vegetation now growing nearly 500 miles further north than it did a few decades ago.

http://climatecrocks.com/2013/03/10/you-can-fool-climate-deniers-but-you-cant-fool-mother-nature-plants-pack-up-and-move-north/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter