General Storm Discussion Thread

[staplehurst]

Hello MCS on Sunday night (has been on the past 2 GFS runs now at least). Perhaps a sign?

[Costa Del Fal]

Hello MCS on Sunday night (has been on the past 2 GFS runs now at least). Perhaps a sign?

Whats the chances of it actually making landfall in England by Sunday? :lol:

[Coast]

Whats the chances of it actually making landfall in England by Sunday? :lol:

Currently 50/50

By Sunday morning though, the chances are............

[Radiating Dendrite]

OK who's stolen sundays storms was looking forward to an exciting British F1 grand prix plenty of thunder an lightning torrential rain nothing like it, can't remember the last time a GB F1 was rained upon think the last one was the famous easter weekend event when the carparks became liquid mud pits trapping thousands of cars.

It rained in 2008 when Hamilton won......a very impressive wet weather drive.

I have given up on thunder, the models don't seem able to pin anything down properly at the moment. The deep lows that keep running into Scotland are quite impressive though, given the time of year.

[Andy Bown]

This really is turning into the weirdest year ive ever known and very frustrating!

However at least i dont feel like im the only one missing out this time.

Well at least you haven't missed out as much as many other people!

The last time I heard thunder was 17 July last year, 2 rumbles over the nearby hills with no lightning witnessed!

(Maybe posts like this should be in the no storms thread? Sorry Mods if so.)

[pinball wizard]

Hello MCS on Sunday night (has been on the past 2 GFS runs now at least). Perhaps a sign?

Yeah i've just seen this: http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100707/06/123/ukprec.png

lets hope it becomes a recurring feature on future model runs :lol:

[Harry]

Yeah i've just seen this: http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100707/06/123/ukprec.png

lets hope it becomes a recurring feature on future model runs

Indeed - I know GFS loves to over-egg things further in advance, but as it stands that is looking like the most intense MCS we've had for quite some years!!

[Wilxy]

Indeed - I know GFS loves to over-egg things further in advance, but as it stands that is looking like the most intense MCS we've had for quite some years!!

This would be a very intresting event to track hope it pulls off.

[Costa Del Fal]

Even now it only just affects the SE. The Eastward movement hasnt begun yet.

Good luck anyway this weekend because its been so quiet. Im in Spain anyway this weekend.

Edited July 7, 2010 by Blizzards

[Wilxy]

Even now it only just affects the SE. The Eastward movement hasnt begun yet.

If given up even hoping for this area obiously the SE will get this and would mainly affect central and eastern areas.

[Harry]

If given up even hoping for this area obiously the SE will get this and would mainly affect central and eastern areas.

Not so sure - eastern shift will have something to say about that!

Plus, rather bizarrely, the highest CAPE/LI levels appear to be further east, yet the MCS appears to form further west away from the highest areas of CAPE/LI...will be interesting to see how this pans out, though a little birdy tells me its yet another dud!

[Stormyking]

If the current outlook is still there by saturday night then I would say most likely areas will Bournmouth/IOW east wards, anyone else agree? I could be completely wrong.

[ZONE 51]

take a look at friday night / saturday for N-IRELAND ( belfast) area - on meto site met office , at least they have the lightning symbol

checked GFS data it does look good for thundery shrs maybe storms for some area of N-IRELAND

Edited July 7, 2010 by nimbilus

[Stuart]

it dont look to bad for me at the weekend for storms

[pinball wizard]

If the current outlook is still there by saturday night then I would say most likely areas will Bournmouth/IOW east wards, anyone else agree? I could be completely wrong.

Latest GFS run and its all gone East as per Harry's earlier prediction, still worth watching it but a familiar downgrade looks likely.

Edited July 7, 2010 by Pinball Wizard

[Harry]

Latest GFS run and its all gone East as per Harry's earlier prediction, still worth watching it but a familiar downgrade looks likely.

Oh it's only a slight change - it's only shifted East by 200 or miles or so, LOL!

While it's interesting to watch, the charts are still pretty worthless at this stage (in respect of any potential MCS sunday night). 5 days and at least 20 more model runs leaves a hell of a lot of room for variability to the forecast...one run has seen a severe MCS turn into a average/moderate MCS 200 miles further East...

Edited July 7, 2010 by Harry

[Costa Del Fal]

Oh it's only a slight change - it's only shifted East by 200 or miles or so, LOL!

While it's interesting to watch, the charts are still pretty worthless at this stage (in respect of any potential MCS sunday night). 5 days and at least 20 more model runs leaves a hell of a lot of room for variability to the forecast...one run has seen a severe MCS turn into a average/moderate MCS 200 miles further East...

The GFS 12Z gives no MCS at all. Lol. No surprise at all though May come back but tbh the chance is very low...very very low.

Edited July 7, 2010 by Blizzards

[staplehurst]

12z UKMO low res ties in very nicely with the GFS, though timing of arrival is somewhat different. It seems an MCS is possible then on Sunday night/Monday morning.

[ZONE 51]

sStorms-bk-on-for-the-SE

as-UKMO-model-is-now-in-the-

same-boat-

[Coast]

I'll put this in general discussion rather than forecast as it's a mile away yet. A trend for the extreme E/SE has been there for a while - but will it make landfall? We'll find out Sunday afternoon!!!

[Stormyking]

I'll put this in general discussion rather than forecast as it's a mile away yet. A trend for the extreme E/SE has been there for a while - but will it make landfall? We'll find out Sunday afternoon!!!

Looks like it will miss us again by only a couple miles :L, still penty of time for it to change I hope

[r6 steve]

Just something i couldnt help but noticing is Wednesday looks like most of the the country has chance of a thunderstorm/thundery showers,

i know its a long way and off and probably will diminish but thought its worth mentioning!!

Oh and whats going to happen on sunday all that cape and li and thunderstorm chance is gonna be slap bang over the solent and not move

for a few days yeah?:unsure:

Abit off topic but still about storm's lol, Least there is no BSB (bike racing) this weekend last weekend at Knockhill was a washout and windy when that storm system moved across

scotland. However for the F1 who knows?

[staplehurst]

GFS throwing a wide variety of options for Sunday (including some for Saturday night at times). What seems to be the case is there is a chance of thundery showers in quite a few places early next week with that Low pressure anchored to the south of the country. Looks like a lot of rain for the southern half at last?

[staplehurst]

Interesting to note that the Met Office SE page has a thundery shower icon for Dover at 10am tomorrow and Margate at 1pm tomorrow, presumably from the storms expected over northern France. The text summary says nowt, as does the local BBC forecast and none of the models are suggesting storms in the SE tomorrow, but not too far away on the continent they are likely.

[Coast]

All over the place at the moment, click to watch an animation of Sunday afternoons latest predictions from GFS via NW