General Storm Discussion Thread

[Coast]

A new thread to discuss storms

[The PIT]

Looks like it Scotland and Northern Irelands turn for the fun today.

Carol K at 06:45 mentioned up too 100mm possible in some places being possible. Remember please don't shoot the messenger if you didn't hear the forecast. The Met Office warnings say up to 50 mm.

Some impressive rainfall accumalations according to the netweather radar.

Low storm risk for us today according to netweather extra.

[The watcher]

Today is MY day for my best thunderstorm of the year so far....I can feel it. Pity I'm doing a bit of plumbing work.

[Harry]

Another dry day for the SE today, bar the odd light shower. I also notice the famous Kesurex cut off on tomorrow's charts (where CAPE smothers the SW but conveniently deviates neatly around Kent, Sussex and Surrey). Slight chance of some thunder on Friday though I daren't hold my breath.

Not at all liking the indications from ECMWF and GFS of a mid-atlantic ridge next week and into the start of August!! Nasty northerly blast looking likely during this period!

Edited July 21, 2010 by Harry

[Backtrack]

Thanks Coast.

I think it's going to be more North Wales and Cheshire today!

Definitely looking good for widespread thunderstorms tomorrow.

What? You kidding me? I am in Cheshire. Not a cloud in the sky atm!

[Coast]

Well, al I know is the chances for today for me in the SE are about the same as they have been all this year so far - low!

[The watcher]

What? You kidding me? I am in Cheshire. Not a cloud in the sky atm!

It's only 9am Back, showers and cloud will spill from the West today.

[Backtrack]

It's only 9am Back, showers and cloud will spill from the West today.

Possibility of cloud, but I don't know about any storms. The only precip is over Ireland at the minute, unless like winter we get showers forming in the irish sea that are very convective, but to me the wind looks more S/W so any showers from in the Irish Sea would hot Wales, rather than here.

Edited July 21, 2010 by Backtrack

[Stuart]

No thunderstorm here last night just rain and for me today is a no:nonono:

[Harry]

Well, al I know is the chances for today for me in the SE are about the same as they have been all this year so far - low!

Similar story tomorrow I think Coast - this is what the GFS charts would appear to indicate (as is often the case)

[Backtrack]

Similar story tomorrow I think Coast - this is what the GFS charts would appear to indicate (as is often the case)

!

+1.

You also missed out Merseyside

[dogs32]

No thunderstorm here last night just rain and for me today is a no:nonono:

Stuart I hope you didnt stay up last night mate

any way a few heavy showers seem to expanding down in South Wales

worth keeping an eye on

Edited July 21, 2010 by Pat Carter

[Coast]

Similar story tomorrow I think Coast - this is what the GFS charts would appear to indicate (as is often the case)

I'm going with Kaddie for today and see what she says tonight about the next couple of days. It's not her forecasting that I'm tuned to......

[Backtrack]

Stuart I hope you didnt stay up last night mate

any way a few heavy showers seem to expanding down in South Wales

Mountains will eat them for breakfast Pat. Even if some did make it, they are heading in a S/E direction. Those are heading to the Midlands.

[dogs32]

Mountains will eat them for breakfast Pat. Even if some did make it, they are heading in a S/E direction. Those are heading to the Midlands.

just tried the loop I think your right...

Oh well another day another dollar still fun watching the radar on and off to see if they explode

Edited July 21, 2010 by Pat Carter

[Stuart]

looking at the Advisory what metoffice last night for my area saying

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland. There is the potential for heavy, thundery rain to give totals in excess of 50 mm in places, with an associated risk of localised flooding.

Issued at: 2254 Tue 20 Jul

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/dg/dg_forecast_warnings.html

so not all lost yet

[Backtrack]

just tried the loop I think your right...

Oh well another day another dollar still fun watching the radar on and off to see if they explode

I wont rule out the odd heavy downpour. But I think thundery showers will be unlikely today.

Worth watching though, if those showers down near Devon and Cornwall are anything to go by, they may form some sort of streamer. Could get some thundery showers from that if it comes off.

If the wind was a pure Westerly, it would be a very mixed day here, with storms becoming frequent throughout the afternoon. The Irish sea is a gift in Winter. Provides us with either a dumping of snow, or a bucket full of rain.

[dogs32]

I wont rule out the odd heavy downpour. But I think thundery showers will be unlikely today.

Worth watching though, if those showers down near Devon and Cornwall are anything to go by, they may form some sort of streamer. Could get some thundery showers from that if it comes off.

If the wind was a pure Westerly, it would be a very mixed day here, with storms becoming frequent throughout the afternoon. The Irish sea is a gift in Winter. Provides us with either a dumping of snow, or a bucket full of rain.

yes I noticed the South Devon shower on the loop..

will be watching this one on and off to see if this intensifies as It should swing up towards Bristol for later

desperate times..storm starved Pat

I blame Paul Sherman for the lack of Storms here...They only happen when hes in the States and vanish when he comes home

Edited July 21, 2010 by Pat Carter

[Backtrack]

yes I noticed the South Devon shower on the loop..

will be watching this one on and off to see if this intensifies as It should swing up towards Bristol for later

desperate times..storm starved Pat

Don't worry, at least you don't live in Kent. You'd turn insane.

That front over Scotland seems to of shruk alot as it left England.

[Stuart]

I Know felling pat i only had 1 litte storms this year so far last year we had about 3

I keeping my on that front to it could be someing nice or i am dreaming

Edited July 21, 2010 by Stuart

[Nick F]

Another dry day for the SE today, bar the odd light shower. I also notice the famous Kesurex cut off on tomorrow's charts (where CAPE smothers the SW but conveniently deviates neatly around Kent, Sussex and Surrey). Slight chance of some thunder on Friday though I daren't hold my breath.

Wouldn't rule out some heavy showers creeping into the SE tomorrow, though likely to be dry for most. Friday looking much better chance atm for t-storms across the SE as the upper trough/low moves across the SE corner.

[Crimson_Sprite]

Is it just me, or does anyone else feel like for the past 2 or 3 weeks they have been chasing the CAPE monster around every bend and corner?? Whenever I look at the storm forcast, even 48 hours ahead, I always seem to have CAPE for the following 1-2 days ahead to be like 300--800 with -1 to -3 lift, and then when the day comes, or within like 12 hrs, it vanishes???? I am now reverted to chasing TOMORROWS cape which looks mighty fine with -3 lift, only to switch on the computer tomorrow morning to have it be like 0 with +12 lift. Since this past Sunday, Tuesday was looking like a whopper of day for me to have storms, and then yesterday morning- +BAM+ like a 7 for CAPE and of course no lift... These days Im happy just to get a 0 for lift .. Has anyone else noticed this trend with the true meaning of the phrase STORM CHASING???

Sorry rant over now :wacko:

[dogs32]

In the Staes they do seem consistent leading up to the event or even sometime's increasing on the Chase day..

here the trend does seem to vanish on the day..the reason is beyond me

[DeepSnow]

Is it just me, or does anyone else feel like for the past 2 or 3 weeks they have been chasing the CAPE monster around every bend and corner?? Whenever I look at the storm forcast, even 48 hours ahead, I always seem to have CAPE for the following 1-2 days ahead to be like 300--800 with -1 to -3 lift, and then when the day comes, or within like 12 hrs, it vanishes???? I am now reverted to chasing TOMORROWS cape which looks mighty fine with -3 lift, only to switch on the computer tomorrow morning to have it be like 0 with +12 lift. Since this past Sunday, Tuesday was looking like a whopper of day for me to have storms, and then yesterday morning- +BAM+ like a 7 for CAPE and of course no lift... These days Im happy just to get a 0 for lift .. Has anyone else noticed this trend with the true meaning of the phrase STORM CHASING???

Sorry rant over now :wacko:

I never though about that before, but now you've said it, i realize thats exactly what seems to be happening! Like yesterday, for days it was giving like 50-60% chance of storms, on the day down to 30% with like 100 for cape and no lift! Tomorrow will most likely be the same!

Well not sure about storms today for here, or tomorrow, will have to wait and see! had some sun thismorning, and now a mix of sun and cloud, dont expect anything tho anymore!

[staplehurst]

Oh it's nice to see all those storms explode over the North Sea yet again. I'm pretty certain the North Sea gets just as many storms as the Low Countries...

Oh to live on an oil rig