Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Ravelin]

21 minutes ago, Essex snowman said:

Not the kind of update us coldies want to see looks pretty much same as last Dec 

Eh?

"It will be rather cold for most though, especially in the north, where there will be an increased likelihood of frost and fog." does not sound at all like last Dec to me as last Dec was unremittingly mild and wet.

[Summer Sun]

1 hour ago, Essex snowman said:

Not the kind of update us coldies want to see looks pretty much same as last Dec 

The fact that this doesn't mention storm after storm and flooding nor the word mild makes this update nothing like last year

If you're wanting a deep freeze and bucket loads of snow ala 2010 then your expectations are far too high

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 Nov 2016 to Thursday 1 Dec 2016:

Unsettled at first with blustery showers or longer spells of rain, turning heavy at times with snow possible on the hills and mountains in the north, with perhaps sleet to low levels. It'll be cold in the north with night frosts likely, but it'll still feel chilly in the south in the wind and rain. Into the rest of the week, it'll likely become more settled, especially in the north where it'll be dry and bright although cold with night frosts. Further south there is a greater risk of rain and stronger winds, and likely remaining on the cold side. Heading towards the end of the month, things become very uncertain. It'll most likely be settled with frost and fog overnight, and only brief unsettled interludes.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 2 Dec 2016 to Friday 16 Dec 2016:

There is considerable uncertainty for this period. There will be some spells of unsettled weather, with the greatest likelihood of wet and windy conditions in the southern half of the UK, although this could turn to sleet or snow on the hills and mountains. Further settled weather is probable across the north as we start December and this could spread into southern parts too. It will be rather cold through the period, especially in the north, where there will be an increased likelihood of frost and fog.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[phil nw.]

Quite a cold looking update.Southerly tracking disturbances in tandem with continued +ve Polar heights by the looks.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 23 Nov 2016 to Friday 2 Dec 2016:

There should be a good deal of dry and bright weather in the north on Wednesday and Thursday, but it will be cold with frosts. Meanwhile there is the possibility for some rain and strong winds with coastal gales in the south. Here temperatures may rise, though it will still feel cold in the wind. It should then turn broadly more settled through into the final weekend of November, with bright spells by day, but fog patches under clear spells overnight. Some showers are likely in the far north-west, and perhaps far south. It will remain generally rather cold with frosts perhaps becoming more widespread. There is then the potential for spells of unsettled weather by the beginning of December, with the driest conditions most likely in the north.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Dec 2016 to Saturday 17 Dec 2016:

There is considerable uncertainty as we look ahead through the first half of December. The most likely outcome is for drier conditions to dominate. However, there is still the risk for more unsettled weather at times, bringing the chance of sleet and snow in places. Temperatures are likely to vary between mild and rather cold so further frosts are expected.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[bluearmy]

no mention of rain ?  how odd considering temps will range from mild to rather cold

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

no mention of rain ?  how odd considering temps will range from mild to rather cold

Perhaps the Northerly blocking will collapse for a time into a Euro High with mild South Westerlies but high enough pressure to keep rainfall to a minimum? who knows.

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Perhaps the Northerly blocking will collapse for a time into a Euro High with mild South Westerlies but high enough pressure to keep rainfall to a minimum? who knows.

its quite specific though. could easily have written 'rain, sleet or perhaps snow'. I think they are slowly 'softening us up'!

[BornFromTheVoid]

However, there is still the risk for more unsettled weather at times - I'd tend to interpret that as unsettled = wind and rain. Then:

bringing the chance of sleet and snow in places. - This meaning with the wind and rain, there is also a chance of sleet or snow in some places too.

 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Nov 2016 to Saturday 3 Dec 2016:

There should be a good deal of dry and bright weather in the north on Thursday, but it will be cold with frosts. Meanwhile there is the possibility for some rain and strong winds with coastal gales in the south. Here temperatures may rise, though it will still feel cold in the wind. It should then turn broadly more settled through into the final weekend of November, with bright spells by day, but fog patches under clear spells overnight. Some showers are likely in the far north, and perhaps far south. It will remain generally rather cold with frosts becoming more widespread. There is then the potential for spells of unsettled weather by the beginning of December, with the driest conditions most likely in the north.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 5 Dec 2016 to Monday 19 Dec 2016:

There is considerable uncertainty as we look ahead through this period. The most likely outcome is for drier conditions to dominate. However, some windy and unsettled weather is likely at times, bringing the chance of sleet and snow in places. Temperatures are likely to vary between locally mild and rather cold, with below average temperatures more likely on the whole, so further frosts are expected.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 25 Nov 2016 to Sunday 4 Dec 2016:

There should be a good deal of dry and bright weather in the north on Friday, but it will be cold with frosts. Meanwhile there is the possibility for cloudier conditions some patchy light rain and stronger winds in the south. Here temperatures may rise, though it will still feel cold in the wind. It should then turn broadly more settled through into the final weekend of November, with bright spells by day, but a risk of some persistent fog. Some rain is likely in the far north, and perhaps far south. It will remain generally rather cold with frosts becoming more widespread. There is then the potential for spells of unsettled windy weather by the beginning of December, though the extent is very uncertain.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 26 Nov 2016 to Monday 5 Dec 2016:

This weekend looks fairly quiet and settled across the UK, with high pressure largely in charge of our weather, though breezy in the far north and far south. It will generally be cold, with locally severe frosts across central and northern areas. Into next week, many parts are expected to remain dry, though with some uncertainly as to the extent of cloud cover and thus the risk of overnight freezing fog. Where skies do remain clear, locally severe frosts remain possible. Towards the end of November there are indications that the high pressure may drift to the east, allowing Atlantic depressions to move in from the west, at least for a time, but it will likely remain on the cold side for most places.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 6 Dec 2016 to Tuesday 20 Dec 2016:

There is considerable uncertainty as we look ahead through this period. The most likely outcome is for drier conditions to dominate. However, some milder, windy and unsettled weather is likely at times, and as this bumps in to the cold air, this would bring the risk of some snow. On balance, despite the potential for incursions of milder weather into the south at times, temperatures will likely average out on the cold side, with further frosts expected.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[mountain shadow]

I think that update is very striking in the lack of certainty in the minds of the Met office, it also reflects the model chaos.

 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 27 Nov 2016 to Tuesday 6 Dec 2016:

The beginning of next week looks fairly quiet, settled and rather cold across the UK, with high pressure largely in charge of our weather, though it will be breezy in the far north and far south. Many parts are expected to remain dry, though there may be some patchy rain in the far south and far north west. Where skies do remain clear, locally severe frosts are possible, particularly in central and northern parts. Fog is also likely to form and persist into mid-morning in some parts. As we move into December there are indications that the high pressure will drift to the east, allowing unsettled Atlantic weather to return and most likely dominate the UK. As a result, it is likely to be milder overall than the preceding week.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Dec 2016 to Wednesday 21 Dec 2016:

There is considerable uncertainty as we look ahead through this period. The most likely outcome is for drier, more settled conditions to prevail. However, some milder, windy and unsettled weather is likely at times, and as this bumps into the cold air, this would bring the risk of some snow. On balance, despite the potential for incursions of milder weather into the south at times, temperatures will probably average out on the cold side, with further frosts expected.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[cyclonic happiness]

52 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Dec 2016 to Wednesday 21 Dec 2016:

There is considerable uncertainty as we look ahead through this period. The most likely outcome is for drier, more settled conditions to prevail. However, some milder, windy and unsettled weather is likely at times, and as this bumps into the cold air, this would bring the risk of some snow. On balance, despite the potential for incursions of milder weather into the south at times, temperatures will probably average out on the cold side, with further frosts expected.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Sounds like ripe conditions for frontal snow, and maybe a stalling snow event...*sighs*....I can dream, can't I? 

[Essex snowman]

Got to admit not the update most expected but when met office were saying end of November early December was the time they expected blocking to be strong but seems they got it badly wrong as models seem to bring Atlantic back in seems every good chart is over 10 days away oh well as not in winter yet I'm still expecting a much better winter than the last 3 and I'm sure most areas of uk will see snow before new year starts 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 28 Nov 2016 to Wednesday 7 Dec 2016:

The rest of November is looking dry though often rather cloudy for most. However, it is likely to turn wet and windy in the north-west through Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Some fog and freezing fog patches are likely, especially across central parts and it will be generally cold with overnight frosts quite widely. Through early December things are likely to turn more unsettled from the north-west, with some very windy conditions. The rain may turn to sleet or snow over high ground, and even to lower levels in the north. Temperatures should be around, or perhaps a little below, normal. High pressure should start to dominate as we go through the December turning things more settled.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[mountain shadow]

12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Monday 28 Nov 2016 to Wednesday 7 Dec 2016:

The rest of November is looking dry though often rather cloudy for most. However, it is likely to turn wet and windy in the north-west through Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Some fog and freezing fog patches are likely, especially across central parts and it will be generally cold with overnight frosts quite widely. Through early December things are likely to turn more unsettled from the north-west, with some very windy conditions. The rain may turn to sleet or snow over high ground, and even to lower levels in the north. Temperatures should be around, or perhaps a little below, normal. High pressure should start to dominate as we go through the December turning things more settled.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

That outlook makes the 6z GFS run a distinct possibility, maybe not as severe but it most certainly points to a Northerly incursion.

Edited November 23, 2016 by mountain shadow

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 29 Nov 2016 to Thursday 8 Dec 2016:

It is likely to turn wet and windy in the north during Tuesday and Wednesday next week, though the cold, dry weather will probably continue in the south. Some fog and freezing fog patches are likely overnight, which may persist well into the mornings on some days. It will stay generally cold so frost will be fairly widespread. In the first few days of December, wet and windy conditions are likely to spread across the whole country, especially in the north. The rain may turn to sleet or snow over high ground, and possibly even to lower levels at times in the north. Temperatures are expected to be around, or perhaps a little below, normal.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 9 Dec 2016 to Friday 23 Dec 2016:

After a wet and windy start to this period, high pressure is likely to dominate from mid December, especially in the north and east. This weather pattern would lead to drier than average conditions and quieter winds. Interludes of more unsettled weather are expected to be fairly limited, though these could still lead to some snow over high ground in the north. It is likely to be rather a cold period, with temperatures below average for the time of year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast